And even more!

But lo! In addition to the election itself, New Zealand has not one but two referenda today.

Euthanasia

The first is a binding vote on assisted dying. Polling suggests overwhelming support for the proposed legislation, which would come into effect a year from now. There's not a whole lot more to say on this electorally, except that this would be the first referendum-initiated euthanasia law in the world.

Cannabis

The second referendum is on whether or not to adopt the Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill. This will legalise the recreational use of cannabis; medicinal use and use of hemp products is already legal in New Zealand.

Unlike the Euthanasia vote, this referendum is not binding, meaning the parliament elected today may chose not to enact the Bill even if it receives majority support (or, though remote, pass the bill without majority public support).

Superficially, polling suggests this will be a very close contest. However, using a consistent methodology is important, so to ensure we're comparing apples with apples let's take these polls one company at a time.

Curia held a single poll (in July 2018) which indicated nominal support for legalisation. The lead was, however, lower than both the 3% of undecided voters and the margin or error on these types of polls. UMR had a similarly close poll held last month.

Horizon Research has conducted 8 polls over the last two years with wavering results from near 3:1 support in October 2018 to a slight trend to opposition in August 2019. However, with that one exception and a tie in August 2020, these polls indicated general support for legalisation with a median lead of 10 percentage points.

Research New Zealand has conducted five polls since March 2019. The clearest outcome was the first of these reading 49:29 in opposition to legalisation. Three polls were supportive, two opposing.

The most recent poll from each of these polling houses indicates support for legalisation in the order of a 2-6 percentage point lead.

The outlier is 1 News Colmar Brunton, whose latest poll had opposition at 51% with undecideds making another 8%. Of seven polls since October 2018, only the first indicated support for legalisation winning (46:41). This is suspiciously out-of-step with other polls which are leaning on average and most recently towards the referendum passing and cannabis being legalised.

It's tempting, then, to assume some flaw in methodology among 1 News's polling. But a different methodology may be an improvement rather than a weakness.

Given the choices being made today, that an appetite for progressive politics may be sated by the Assisted Dying referendum and election of Labour, and that when in doubt the safest bet is the devil you know, my gut is telling me this referndum is unlikely to pass. Even if it does, it's close enough to give an excuse to rely on the non-binding nature of this vote and not pass the law.

Predictions

Assisted dying result: definitive yes

Cannabis legalisation result: tossup (leaning no).