NT Results

This should be a reasonably short post, since there's not much to analyse. There was some more advanced statistical work done on this election, but it provided similar results to other methods, particularly relying on the "marginal" definition of a seat.

 The results themselves come to 21/25 or 84% which is pretty standard--perhaps a little low. But there was almost no polling data, so I feel excused.

 The wrong calls weren't particularly enlightening either. Despite the confusion caused by having two possible opposition parties in the mix (Country Liberals and Territory Alliance), at no point did I give a seat to one and have the other take it. (Though, in Nelson I chickened out and didn't distinguish between them. That said, I did call Blain and Fong Lim for TA and not only did the ALP win both, but the TA didn't even come second.

My personal interest was whether TA could survive as a party and even take the role of opposition. My predictions considered this unlikely and this was born out.

Here's what I got wrong:

Barkly - rated safe by normal measures (8% margin) and Labor since 94, this was the only real surprise. That said, it's important to note that the CLP holds the seat with a 0.1% margin.

Blain & Fong Lim - I gave the TA too much credit. They weren't even able to retain these two incumbents in an election that should have seen the ALP on the defensive. 

Port Darwin - Noted as a close race but expected a bigger swing against Labor based mostly on a CLP history of success in the seat. This seat will fall but not this year.

Seat	Incumbent	Prediction	Result
Arafura	ALP	ALP	ALP
Araluen	TA	TA	TA
Arnhem	ALP	ALP	ALP
Barkly	ALP	ALP	CLP
Blain	TA	TA	ALP
Braitling	ALP	CLP	CLP
Brennan	ALP	CLP	CLP
Casuarina	ALP	ALP	ALP
Daly	CLP	CLP	CLP
Drysdale	ALP	ALP	ALP
Fannie Bay	ALP	ALP	ALP
Fong Lim	TA	TA	ALP
Goyder	IND	IND	IND
Gwoja	IND	ALP	ALP
Johnston	ALP	ALP	ALP
Karama	ALP	ALP	ALP
Katherine	ALP	CLP	CLP
Mulka	IND	IND	IND
Namatjira	ALP	CLP	CLP
Nelson	IND	Opp	CLP
Nightcliff	ALP	ALP	ALP
Port Darwin	ALP	CLP	ALP
Sanderson	ALP	ALP	ALP
Spillett	CLP	CLP	CLP
Wanguri	ALP	ALP	ALP