NSW Legislative Council

The NSW Legislative Council has 21 seats up for election through single electorate proportional representation. That means that there are 21 other seats that are carrying over:

➎ Liberal
➌ National
➐ Labor
➋ Green
➋ One Nation
➊ Shooters, Farmers and Fishers
➊ Animal Justice.

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There is no direct polling of Legislative Council voting intention, but assuming this mirrors the Legislative Assembly, The primary vote would elect:

7.98 Coalition candidates (38% of 21 seats)

7.98 Labor candidates (38% of 21 seats)

1.68 Greens candidates (8% of 21 seats)

It is very likely this will convert after preferences to at least 8 seats each for the Coalition and Labor:

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With four unknowns, and a long push for Labor or Coalition to gain a 9th seat, it seems likely that minor parties will fill the remainder. SFF have not polled over 2% (0.42 LegCo seats) since the start of 2022, but a recent(ish) Roy Morgan poll puts One Nation at 8.5% (1.79 seats). With a remainder of  0.68 seats, it's in the realm of possibility for the greens to pick up another, as may One Nation:

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The final is anyone's guess, depending of what minor party can scrape enough preferences together to float to the top of the pack, which is entirely speculative even without NSW's option to not number every candidate. For colour-thematic reasons I'll propose Independent, but really this is a total tossup and more likely to be a party like Animal Justice, SFF or Legalise Canabis.

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There's no motivation to form a permanent coalition in the Legislative Council, but assuming the Coalition has minority control of the Legislative Assembly (see previous post), they will need the support of six crossbench councilors to pass controversial legislation. This is unlikely to be the Greens for ideological reasons, requiring support from all ONP and two of the remaining three crossbenchers, adding to the complexity of the next government. Conversely, to block Coalition bills or support their own legislation a Labor-Greens alliance would only require 2 or 3 crossbenchers respectively.

Hanging out in NSW

The NSW election is coming up this weekend, and the polling superficially appears to be a concern for the Coalition. The last poll with a two part preferred (TPP) vote where the Coalition led Labor was in 2021. The reality is a somewhat closer race that this might suggest, however.

In the 2019 election the Coalition won 52.0% of the TPP vote. on 28 February Roy Morgan had this down to 47.5% - a drop of 4.5 percentage points. Taking Antony Green's electoral pendulum and applying a 4.5 percentage point swing to Labor (ignoring all minor parties) takes the Coalition's legislative assembly seats from 51 to 46 or, to put it another wat, gives Labor a majority of 1 seat.

* Incumbent is nominal only - new seat following 2021 redistribution of seats
† Alternate margin by Antony Green (where pendulum did not reflect TPP contest between Coalition and Labor) 
‡ 2019 TPP result used (where pendulum did not reflect TPP contest between Coalition and Labor, and no alternative was provided by Antony Green)

However, this obviously ignores the nuances in a parliament that currently has three Greens, three Shooters, Farmers and/or Fishers and five Independents.

Taking instead the expected races in each seat, we can retain the above results for Liberal v Labor and Nationals v Labor races, but factor in the following alternative swings based on primary vote:

Total represents the sum of compared primary votes. The % of Total is the primary vote as a proportion of this Total. Primary vote swing is the difference in percentage points between the % of Total from the 2019 election and latest 2023 polling. 

Thus while the Coalition is broadly expected to lose seats to Labor, in some instances they may pick up seats from the Greens or, more likely, Shooters, Fishers and Farmers to offset this.

Races involving an independent (where the same independent who ran in 2019 is running again in 2023) are assessed on a case by case basis as follows:

Coffs Harbour - Nationals held a 10.3 percentage point lead over Sally Townley in 2019, which is normally classified as 'safe'. It is not expected that Sally Townley will be able to surmount this, even with the general 4.5pp swing away from the Coalition potentially flowing to her. Purely for the calculations, we will use a swing of 0.0%--this is not intended to accurately represent a possible swing but simply to return a result of no change to the seat.

Lake Macquarie - Independent Greg Piper has a 23.2pp margin over Labor. This is considered 'very safe'. Again a nominal 0.0% swing is adopted to represent no expected change.

Sydney - A 'safe' margin of 11.8pp has been calculated by Antony Green for incumbent Alex Greenwich. The TPP race is very close, creating a very favourable situation for the independent to retain the seat. Nominal swing of 0.0%

Tamworth - Nationals won in 2019 with a 20.7pp 'very safe' margin over Independent Mark Rodda. No change anticipated, nominal swing 0.0%.

Wagga Wagga - Incumbent Joe McGirr has a 'safe' 15.5pp margin. No change anticipated, nominal swing 0.0%.

Willoughby - In the 2022 by-election, Liberals has a 3.3pp 'marginal' margin over Independent Larissa Penn. With the drop in Coalition primary vote, it is anticipated that the Independent who made it to second place once might win this. To reflect this a swing of 3.4pp is nominally adopted to reflect this possible change.

Woolondilly - On the border of 'marginal' and 'fairly safe' at 6.0%, the Liberal lead is technically larger than the swing to Labor which may insulate them from change, but with a viable Independent candidate, this could see a stronger swing. Nominal 6.1% swing adopted to reflect a possible change.

* Incumbent is nominal only - new seat following 2021 redistribution of seats
† Alternate margin by Antony Green (where pendulum did not reflect TPP contest between Coalition and Labor) 

‡ 2019 TPP result used (where pendulum did not reflect TPP contest between Coalition and Labor, and no alternative was provided by Antony Green)
! Antony Green assessment of likely contest adopted
!! Incumbent updated to reflect likely contest (i.e. where Coalition candidate won in 2019, became independent, and it is expected that the Coalition will win the seat again rather than be held by the independent defector)

This would give a hung parliament result of:

Coalition 43 (30 Liberal, 13 National)
Labor 41
Greens 3
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 1
Independent 5

Assuming SFF supports the Coalition and the Greens support the ALP this is 44 seats apiece, with support from 3 out of 5 independents requited for majority. Given four of these (Lake Macquarie as the exception) are in contest with Coalition parties there is likely going to be pressure within their electorates, and from the voters who prioritised them over Labor, for the independents to align with the Coalition. If Willoughby and/or Woolondilly don't flip this further strengthens the Coalition's position to form minority government.

The ultimate result in the Legislative Assembly, therefore, will come down to the will of a handful of Independents. I'm tentatively suggesting a Coalition minority government against the simplified TPP polling which is tipping ALP to win. This would be touted as a significant achievement for Perrottet, likely to be framed by supporters as snatching victory from the jaws of defeat, but the practical implications of such a broad crossbench means a tough 4 years ahead for whoever ultimately forms government.