It feels as though, ever since the election of Donald J Trump to the American Presidency, I had no choice but to make a prediction on the 2020 race. So let's get it done now:
Given the level of media coverage this election has received even outside of the US, I will only cursorily describe the electoral college process: votes are held in each of the 50 states and in DC. Each of these states have a number of seats to fill in the electoral college, indirectly linked to their relative populations. For most states, this is on a winner-takes-all basis, so whoever leads in California gets 55 seats electoral college votes (ECVs). There are 538 ECVs and a president needs a majority of these--270. So that's the number we're looking for.
Round 1 - Dividing the Most Divisive
It is not exactly breaking news to suggest political positions have become more polarised in the last four years. The table below compares Trump's vote in 2016 (as a percentage of votes for Trump or Clinton) with the latest polling of likely voters (at 1 November 2020) in each state (again, as a percentage of votes for Trump or Biden).
| STATE | ECV | 2016 | LATEST (LV) | SHIFT | |
| Alabama | 9 | 64.4% | 61.2% | -3.1% | In Play |
| Alaska | 3 | 58.4% | 54.1% | -4.3% | In Play |
| Arizona | 11 | 51.9% | 47.9% | -4.0% | In Play |
| Arkansas | 6 | 64.3% | 61.2% | -3.1% | In Play |
| California | 55 | 33.9% | 36.7% | 2.9% | In Play |
| Colorado | 9 | 47.3% | 43.4% | -3.9% | Biden |
| Connecticut | 7 | 42.9% | 38.4% | -4.5% | Biden |
| Delaware | 3 | 44.0% | 39.4% | -4.6% | Biden |
| District of Columbia | 3 | 4.3% | 6.1% | 1.8% | In Play |
| Florida | 29 | 50.6% | 51.0% | 0.4% | Trump |
| Georgia | 16 | 52.7% | 49.0% | -3.7% | In Play |
| Hawaii | 4 | 32.6% | 33.0% | 0.4% | In Play |
| Idaho | 4 | 68.3% | 61.2% | -7.1% | In Play |
| Illinois | 20 | 41.0% | 40.8% | -0.2% | Biden |
| Indiana | 11 | 60.1% | 55.1% | -5.0% | In Play |
| Iowa | 6 | 55.1% | 50.5% | -4.6% | In Play |
| Kansas | 6 | 61.1% | 55.1% | -6.0% | In Play |
| Kentucky | 8 | 65.7% | 59.6% | -6.1% | In Play |
| Louisiana | 8 | 60.2% | 63.3% | 3.1% | Trump |
| Maine | 2 | 48.4% | 43.9% | -4.5% | Biden |
| Maryland | 10 | 36.0% | 32.0% | -4.0% | Biden |
| Massachusetts | 11 | 35.3% | 29.9% | -5.5% | Biden |
| Michigan | 16 | 50.1% | 43.6% | -6.5% | In Play |
| Minnesota | 10 | 49.2% | 30.4% | -18.8% | Biden |
| Mississippi | 6 | 59.1% | 62.6% | 3.5% | Trump |
| Missouri | 10 | 59.8% | 56.1% | -3.7% | In Play |
| Montana | 3 | 61.1% | 53.1% | -8.0% | In Play |
| Nebraska | 2 | 63.5% | 57.1% | -6.4% | In Play |
| Nevada | 6 | 48.7% | 49.0% | 0.3% | In Play |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 49.8% | 47.5% | -2.3% | Biden |
| New Jersey | 14 | 42.7% | 38.8% | -3.9% | Biden |
| New Mexico | 5 | 45.3% | 43.9% | -1.5% | Biden |
| New York | 29 | 38.2% | 35.7% | -2.5% | Biden |
| North Carolina | 15 | 51.9% | 46.9% | -5.0% | In Play |
| North Dakota | 3 | 69.8% | 61.2% | -8.6% | In Play |
| Ohio | 18 | 54.3% | 51.0% | -3.2% | In Play |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 69.3% | 63.6% | -5.7% | In Play |
| Oregon | 7 | 43.8% | 39.4% | -4.5% | Biden |
| Pennsylvania | 20 | 50.4% | 46.3% | -4.1% | In Play |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 41.7% | 35.7% | -6.0% | Biden |
| South Carolina | 9 | 57.5% | 55.1% | -2.4% | In Play |
| South Dakota | 3 | 66.0% | 62.2% | -3.7% | In Play |
| Tennessee | 11 | 63.6% | 56.6% | -7.1% | In Play |
| Texas | 38 | 54.7% | 52.0% | -2.7% | In Play |
| Utah | 6 | 62.4% | 56.1% | -6.3% | In Play |
| Vermont | 3 | 34.8% | 28.6% | -6.2% | Biden |
| Virginia | 13 | 47.2% | 42.9% | -4.3% | Biden |
| Washington | 12 | 41.2% | 36.7% | -4.5% | Biden |
| West Virginia | 5 | 72.2% | 67.3% | -4.8% | In Play |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 50.4% | 48.4% | -2.0% | In Play |
| Wyoming | 3 | 75.7% | 66.3% | -9.4% | In Play |
N.B. Maine and Nebraska are only given 2 ECVs, as these states award two based on state-wide popular votes, with 2 or 3 others respectively awarded based on individual voting districts considered further below.
Shift is the difference between Trump's vote in 2016 and polls in 2020. In seats that he won in 2016 where polling indicates a strengthening of his vote, we can make an early guess that Trump will hold on. These states include Florida which is a key battleground worth 29 ECV or over 10% of a victory. Similarly, in states where Clinton won in 2016 and Biden is polling even better, an early prediction for the Democrats is possible. The rest are still in play.
Round 2 - Deciding the Most Decided
Of course, in some states it's entirely unrealistic to expect a shift of any plausible magnitude to make a difference. To take the most extreme example, Trump's gain in D.C. is the median of all his gains--1.8%; this has reduced Biden's Two-Party percentage to a mere 93.9%.
Polling has a margin of error that can vary a lot depending on sample size, methodology and other factors, but 3 percentage points is a common rule of thumb. Fore safety, I'm allowing a 5% error; seats where Trump holds more than 55% are coloured red and where he has less than 45% go blue in the table below.
| STATE | ECV | LATEST (LV) | |
| Alabama | 9 | 61.2% | Trump |
| Alaska | 3 | 54.1% | In Play |
| Arizona | 11 | 47.9% | In Play |
| Arkansas | 6 | 61.2% | Trump |
| California | 55 | 36.7% | Biden |
| Colorado | 9 | 43.4% | Biden |
| Connecticut | 7 | 38.4% | Biden |
| Delaware | 3 | 39.4% | Biden |
| District of Columbia | 3 | 6.1% | Biden |
| Florida | 29 | 51.0% | In Play |
| Georgia | 16 | 49.0% | In Play |
| Hawaii | 4 | 33.0% | Biden |
| Idaho | 4 | 61.2% | Trump |
| Illinois | 20 | 40.8% | Biden |
| Indiana | 11 | 55.1% | Trump |
| Iowa | 6 | 50.5% | In Play |
| Kansas | 6 | 55.1% | Trump |
| Kentucky | 8 | 59.6% | Trump |
| Louisiana | 8 | 63.3% | Trump |
| Maine | 2 | 43.9% | Biden |
| Maryland | 10 | 32.0% | Biden |
| Massachusetts | 11 | 29.9% | Biden |
| Michigan | 16 | 43.6% | Biden |
| Minnesota | 10 | 30.4% | Biden |
| Mississippi | 6 | 62.6% | Trump |
| Missouri | 10 | 56.1% | Trump |
| Montana | 3 | 53.1% | In Play |
| Nebraska | 2 | 57.1% | Trump |
| Nevada | 6 | 49.0% | In Play |
| New Hampshire | 4 | 47.5% | In Play |
| New Jersey | 14 | 38.8% | Biden |
| New Mexico | 5 | 43.9% | Biden |
| New York | 29 | 35.7% | Biden |
| North Carolina | 15 | 46.9% | In Play |
| North Dakota | 3 | 61.2% | Trump |
| Ohio | 18 | 51.0% | In Play |
| Oklahoma | 7 | 63.6% | Trump |
| Oregon | 7 | 39.4% | Biden |
| Pennsylvania | 20 | 46.3% | In Play |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 35.7% | Biden |
| South Carolina | 9 | 55.1% | Trump |
| South Dakota | 3 | 62.2% | Trump |
| Tennessee | 11 | 56.6% | Trump |
| Texas | 38 | 52.0% | In Play |
| Utah | 6 | 56.1% | Trump |
| Vermont | 3 | 28.6% | Biden |
| Virginia | 13 | 42.9% | Biden |
| Washington | 12 | 36.7% | Biden |
| West Virginia | 5 | 67.3% | Trump |
| Wisconsin | 10 | 48.4% | In Play |
| Wyoming | 3 | 66.3% | Trump |
These results are consistent with Round 1, but lock down a lot more predictions (and put Trump's Florida and Biden's New Hampshire back in play.
Round 3 - Determining the Most Determined
Those who can remember 2016 will recall the follies of following polls too closely. Not just the US presidential election, but Brexit and a few other less extreme surprises shook a lot of faith in polls. Certainly, leaning too heavily on a single poll is a risk. Fortunately, 538 lets you view the polling history of each state over a number of months to reduce reliance on outliers.
These graphs are corrected for reliability, national trends between state polls, time since last poll etc. as explained here. This is an important point, as it introduces some biases as well as removing them, and can result in some oddities such as Biden never falling behind in Pennsylvania despite Trump having won in an AtlasIntel poll just yesterday (also Trafalgar Group on Oct 29, Insider Advantage Oct 25 and Civiqs Oct 21).
Nevertheless there are a number of states where polling, once adjusted, has without fail indicated one candidate or another would carry the state.
| STATE | ECV | POLLING |
| Alabama | 9 | Trump |
| Alaska | 3 | Trump |
| Arizona | 11 | Mixed |
| Arkansas | 6 | Trump |
| California | 55 | Biden |
| Colorado | 9 | Biden |
| Connecticut | 7 | Biden |
| Delaware | 3 | Biden |
| District of Columbia | 3 | Biden |
| Florida | 29 | Mixed |
| Georgia | 16 | Mixed |
| Hawaii | 4 | Biden |
| Idaho | 4 | Trump |
| Illinois | 20 | Biden |
| Indiana | 11 | Trump |
| Iowa | 6 | Mixed |
| Kansas | 6 | Trump |
| Kentucky | 8 | Trump |
| Louisiana | 8 | Trump |
| Maine | 2 | Biden |
| Maryland | 10 | Biden |
| Massachusetts | 11 | Biden |
| Michigan | 16 | Biden |
| Minnesota | 10 | Biden |
| Mississippi | 6 | Trump |
| Missouri | 10 | Trump |
| Montana | 3 | Trump |
| Nebraska | 2 | Trump |
| Nevada | 6 | Biden |
| New Hampshire | 4 | Biden |
| New Jersey | 14 | Biden |
| New Mexico | 5 | Biden |
| New York | 29 | Biden |
| North Carolina | 15 | Biden |
| North Dakota | 3 | Trump |
| Ohio | 18 | Mixed |
| Oklahoma | 7 | Trump |
| Oregon | 7 | Biden |
| Pennsylvania | 20 | Biden |
| Rhode Island | 4 | Biden |
| South Carolina | 9 | Trump |
| South Dakota | 3 | Trump |
| Tennessee | 11 | Trump |
| Texas | 38 | Mixed |
| Utah | 6 | Trump |
| Vermont | 3 | Biden |
| Virginia | 13 | Biden |
| Washington | 12 | Biden |
| West Virginia | 5 | Trump |
| Wisconsin | 10 | Mixed |
| Wyoming | 3 | Trump |
Interval - Consolidated Outputs
These three rounds of consideration align nicely to give us a consolidated prediction for DC and 44 states:
| STATE | ECV | ROUND 1 | ROUND 2 | ROUND 3 | PREDICTION |
| Alabama | 9 | In Play | Trump | Trump | Trump |
| Alaska | 3 | In Play | In Play | Trump | Trump |
| Arizona | 11 | In Play | In Play | In Play | In Play |
| Arkansas | 6 | In Play | Trump | Trump | Trump |
| California | 55 | In Play | Biden | Biden | Biden |
| Colorado | 9 | Biden | Biden | Biden | Biden |
| Connecticut | 7 | Biden | Biden | Biden | Biden |
| Delaware | 3 | Biden | Biden | Biden | Biden |
| District of Columbia | 3 | In Play | Biden | Biden | Biden |
| Florida | 29 | Trump | In Play | In Play | Trump |
| Georgia | 16 | In Play | In Play | In Play | In Play |
| Hawaii | 4 | In Play | Biden | Biden | Biden |
| Idaho | 4 | In Play | Trump | Trump | Trump |
| Illinois | 20 | Biden | Biden | Biden | Biden |
| Indiana | 11 | In Play | Trump | Trump | Trump |
| Iowa | 6 | In Play | In Play | In Play | In Play |
| Kansas | 6 | In Play | Trump | Trump | Trump |
| Kentucky | 8 | In Play | Trump | Trump | Trump |
| Louisiana | 8 | Trump | Trump | Trump | Trump |
| Maine | 2 | Biden | Biden | Biden | Biden |
| Maryland | 10 | Biden | Biden | Biden | Biden |
| Massachusetts | 11 | Biden | Biden | Biden | Biden |
| Michigan | 16 | In Play | Biden | Biden | Biden |
| Minnesota | 10 | Biden | Biden | Biden | Biden |
| Mississippi | 6 | Trump | Trump | Trump | Trump |
| Missouri | 10 | In Play | Trump | Trump | Trump |
| Montana | 3 | In Play | In Play | Trump | Trump |
| Nebraska | 2 | In Play | Trump | Trump | Trump |
| Nevada | 6 | In Play | In Play | Biden | Biden |
| New Hampshire | 4 | Biden | In Play | Biden | Biden |
| New Jersey | 14 | Biden | Biden | Biden | Biden |
| New Mexico | 5 | Biden | Biden | Biden | Biden |
| New York | 29 | Biden | Biden | Biden | Biden |
| North Carolina | 15 | In Play | In Play | Biden | Biden |
| North Dakota | 3 | In Play | Trump | Trump | Trump |
| Ohio | 18 | In Play | In Play | In Play | In Play |
| Oklahoma | 7 | In Play | Trump | Trump | Trump |
| Oregon | 7 | Biden | Biden | Biden | Biden |
| Pennsylvania | 20 | In Play | In Play | Biden | Biden |
| Rhode Island | 4 | Biden | Biden | Biden | Biden |
| South Carolina | 9 | In Play | Trump | Trump | Trump |
| South Dakota | 3 | In Play | Trump | Trump | Trump |
| Tennessee | 11 | In Play | Trump | Trump | Trump |
| Texas | 38 | In Play | In Play | In Play | In Play |
| Utah | 6 | In Play | Trump | Trump | Trump |
| Vermont | 3 | Biden | Biden | Biden | Biden |
| Virginia | 13 | Biden | Biden | Biden | Biden |
| Washington | 12 | Biden | Biden | Biden | Biden |
| West Virginia | 5 | In Play | Trump | Trump | Trump |
| Wisconsin | 10 | In Play | In Play | In Play | In Play |
| Wyoming | 3 | In Play | Trump | Trump | Trump |
On these numbers alone Biden would hold 282 ECVs, already a majority and far ahead for Trump's 152. Six states required further consideration, as well as the individual districts in Maine and Nebraska that send more local electors to the electoral college. It is reassuring to note, also, that the arbitrary 5% threshold in round 2 did not define any states that weren't confirmed in another round, making the choice of 5% less critical.
The Outliers
Arizona
Arizona was almost locked in for Biden in Round 3; although Trump has led in this state, that was last seen in early March.
Then again, Arizona has only supported two Democratic presidents since the end of World War Two: Truman in 1948 (when the Democrats were still resolving whether they would be the left or right wing party in the USA) and Clinton in 1996 (who won with a landslide 379 ECVs).
It is true that an influx of younger people and particularly Latinos and Latinas is shifting the rusted-on red nature of the state, and the push against Trump has to be the best shot the Dems have had in a while, but I'm not convinced the time has come to colour Arizona blue.
| Arizona | Trump |
Georgia
Georgia is a very tight race, with Biden and Trump vying for the lead in the polls. At present Biden is up, but like Arizona, the state has a long red streak back decades. The Clinton landslide took the state, as did Georgia's governor Carter twice, but these are obvious outliers as was support for third-place contender George Wallace in 1968.
Again, anti-Trump sentiment is a powerful motivator but probably not enough.
| Georgia | Trump |
Iowa
Iowa is a more contentious state, backing Republicans in 8 of the last 15 presidential elections. Polling is tight but both currently and historically Trump has been looking good here. Could be a surprise Biden win, but the safe bet is against that.
| Iowa | Trump |
Maine
Main at-large (2 ECVs) has been called for Biden in all three rounds. There are two other votes to be won here, corresponding to Maine's two congressional districts, Maine 1st and Maine 2nd (or as I call them, Main Maine and Maine's Remains).
Maine 1st has Biden with a 19 point lead in the most recent polls and the 538 chart shows this has not dropped below 9 points in the last four months of polling.
| Maine 1st |
Biden |
Maine 2st is much closet with Biden still ahead but only by around 3 points, and a few periods where Trump was leading. This is probably the closest race on my sheets, but at a guess...
| Maine 2nd | Biden |
Nebraska
Like Maine, Nebraska has congressional districts in play: Nebraska 1st, Nebraska 2nd and Nebraska 3rd.
Nebraska 1st has a single poll from August with Trump up 2 points. This isn't a lot to go on, but since Nebraska gave congressional districts individual votes Nebraska 1st has always voted Republican and voted for Trump 56:36 in 2016.
| Nebraska 1st | Trump |
Nebraska 2nd has Biden up 3 points yesterday and by 11 points earlier that month. This seat is the only one to have voted Democrat in Nebraska (for Obama in '08). The polling history suggests that history may repeat itself this year.
| Nebraska 2nd | Biden |
Nebraska 3rd is historically the most Republican of the three districts. There's no reliable polling here but then, why would there be?
| Nebraska 3rd | Trump |
Ohio
Ohio is close and Trump has the narrow lead. But the state has also backed the winning president every year sine 1964 (and only four wrong in the century before that). If any state is going to defy the polls, and surely one of them will, it is probably Ohio. For a bit of adventure I'm going to take the minority view here and suggest:
| Ohio | Biden |
Texas
It's amazing that Texas is in play, and there is some suggestion this may be the new normal as Hispanic communities become a larger proportion of the population. This is a big concern for Republicans, as their biggest safe seat (38 ECVs) is starting to look purple. Still, I think the thought of losing Texas has scared Republicans enough to turn out and vote, and the Trump campaign has had to throw a lot of money into Texas for their own peace of mind; anyone marking Texas blue today is, in my opinion, kidding themselves.
| Texas | Trump |
Wisconsin
I have 36 October polls from Wisconsin and only one has Trump ahead (and that, on Oct 2, by one point). Eight have Biden up by double digits. What was a close race in April has widened significantly.
| Wisconsin | Biden |
Final Prediction
All combined, that's suggesting:
| STATE | ECV | PREDICTION |
| Alabama | 9 | Trump |
| Alaska | 3 | Trump |
| Arizona | 11 | Trump |
| Arkansas | 6 | Trump |
| California | 55 | Biden |
| Colorado | 9 | Biden |
| Connecticut | 7 | Biden |
| Delaware | 3 | Biden |
| District of Columbia | 3 | Biden |
| Florida | 29 | Trump |
| Georgia | 16 | Trump |
| Hawaii | 4 | Biden |
| Idaho | 4 | Trump |
| Illinois | 20 | Biden |
| Indiana | 11 | Trump |
| Iowa | 6 | Trump |
| Kansas | 6 | Trump |
| Kentucky | 8 | Trump |
| Louisiana | 8 | Trump |
| Maine (at-large) | 2 | Biden |
| Maine 1st | 1 | Biden |
| Maine 2nd | 1 | Biden |
| Maryland | 10 | Biden |
| Massachusetts | 11 | Biden |
| Michigan | 16 | Biden |
| Minnesota | 10 | Biden |
| Mississippi | 6 | Trump |
| Missouri | 10 | Trump |
| Montana | 3 | Trump |
| Nebraska (at-large) | 2 | Trump |
| Nebraska 1st | 1 | Trump |
| Nebraska 2nd | 1 | Biden |
| Nebraska 3rd | 1 | Trump |
| Nevada | 6 | Biden |
| New Hampshire | 4 | Biden |
| New Jersey | 14 | Biden |
| New Mexico | 5 | Biden |
| New York | 29 | Biden |
| North Carolina | 15 | Biden |
| North Dakota | 3 | Trump |
| Ohio | 18 | Biden |
| Oklahoma | 7 | Trump |
| Oregon | 7 | Biden |
| Pennsylvania | 20 | Biden |
| Rhode Island | 4 | Biden |
| South Carolina | 9 | Trump |
| South Dakota | 3 | Trump |
| Tennessee | 11 | Trump |
| Texas | 38 | Trump |
| Utah | 6 | Trump |
| Vermont | 3 | Biden |
| Virginia | 13 | Biden |
| Washington | 12 | Biden |
| West Virginia | 5 | Trump |
| Wisconsin | 10 | Biden |
| Wyoming | 3 | Trump |
That comes to 225 Electoral College votes for Trump and 313 for Biden. At that rate, Biden would be the next President of the United States.
As a footnote, there are 11 state Gubernatorial races on election day also. As 2020 was a census year, it's gerrymandering season, and the election of Governor can have serious implications on the make-up of the US House for the next 10 years.
ReplyDeleteMissouri has a bipartisan redistricting commission and the Governor has no input in the boundary drawing process. Montana's and Washington's commission is entirely independent. In North Carolina, the governor cannot veto a redistribution.
The key Gubernatorial races, therefore, are: Delaware, Indiana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Utah, Vermont and West Virginia.
Across prediction sources, most of these are foregone conclusions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_gubernatorial_elections#Predictions
Including all Gubernatorial races, with Puerto Rico and American Samoa thrown in:
* Delaware, North Carolina and Washington are unanimously agreed to be Democrat wins
* Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Utah, Vermont and West Virginia are expected to return a Republican
* Polling is consistent enough for me to add Montana to the red pile (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Montana_gubernatorial_election#Polling_3)
* American Samoa holds elections on a non-partisan basis
* Puerto Rico polling hints at a New Progressive (Democrat) Win (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Puerto_Rico_gubernatorial_election#Polling_3)