Backdated - Results, Queensland 2020

Predictions from the Queensland 2020 state election had a decent success rate of 93.7%, or 89 of 95. 89 out of 95 is also what I would have got by simply following the polling to state there would be no change (except that Whitsunday would return to the LNP after a 2019 expulsion of incumbent Jason Costigan). So my analysis didn't hurt my predictions, but probably weren't worth the effort either. Interestingly,both approaches would have miscalled the same four seats in their six: Caloundra, Hervey Bay, Nicklin and South Brisbane.

But this blog is misleadingly called the Infographinomicon, not the Wordy-spiel-riddled-with-numbers-apedia, so here's the coloured table:

ELECTORATE	PREDICTION	RESULT
Algester	ALP	ALP
Aspley	LNP	ALP
Bancroft	ALP	ALP
Barron River	ALP	ALP
Bonney	LNP	LNP
Broadwater	LNP	LNP
Buderim	LNP	LNP
Bulimba	ALP	ALP
Bundaberg	ALP	ALP
Bundamba	ALP	ALP
Burdekin	LNP	LNP
Burleigh	LNP	LNP
Burnett	LNP	LNP
Cairns	ALP	ALP
Callide	LNP	LNP
Caloundra	LNP	ALP
Capalaba	ALP	ALP
Chatsworth	LNP	LNP
Clayfield	LNP	LNP
Condamine	LNP	LNP
Cook	ALP	ALP
Coomera	LNP	LNP
Cooper	ALP	ALP
Currumbin	LNP	LNP
Everton	LNP	LNP
Ferny Grove	ALP	ALP
Gaven	LNP	ALP
Gladstone	ALP	ALP
Glass House	LNP	LNP
Greenslopes	ALP	ALP
Gregory	LNP	LNP
Gympie	LNP	LNP
Hervey Bay	LNP	ALP
Hill	KAP	KAP
Hinchinbrook	KAP	KAP
Inala	ALP	ALP
Ipswich	ALP	ALP
Ipswich West	ALP	ALP
Jordan	ALP	ALP
Kawana	LNP	LNP
Keppel	ALP	ALP
Kurwongbah	ALP	ALP
Lockyer	LNP	LNP
Logan	ALP	ALP
Lytton	ALP	ALP
Macalister	ALP	ALP
Mackay	ALP	ALP
Maiwar	GRN	GRN
Mansfield	ALP	ALP
Maroochydore	LNP	LNP
Maryborough	ALP	ALP
McConnel	ALP	ALP
Mermaid Beach	LNP	LNP
Miller	ALP	ALP
Mirani	ONP	ONP
Moggill	LNP	LNP
Morayfield	ALP	ALP
Mount Ommaney	ALP	ALP
Mudgeeraba	LNP	LNP
Mulgrave	ALP	ALP
Mundingburra	ALP	ALP
Murrumba	ALP	ALP
Nanango	LNP	LNP
Nicklin	LNP	ALP
Ninderry	LNP	LNP
Noosa	IND	IND
Nudgee	ALP	ALP
Oodgeroo	LNP	LNP
Pine Rivers	ALP	ALP
Pumicestone	ALP	ALP
Redcliffe	ALP	ALP
Redlands	ALP	ALP
Rockhampton	ALP	ALP
Sandgate	ALP	ALP
Scenic Rim	LNP	LNP
South Brisbane	ALP	GRN
Southern Downs	LNP	LNP
Southport	LNP	LNP
Springwood	ALP	ALP
Stafford	ALP	ALP
Stretton	ALP	ALP
Surfers Paradise	LNP	LNP
Theodore	LNP	LNP
Thuringowa	ALP	ALP
Toohey	ALP	ALP
Toowoomba North	LNP	LNP
Toowoomba South	LNP	LNP
Townsville	ALP	ALP
Traeger	KAP	KAP
Warrego	LNP	LNP
Waterford	ALP	ALP
Whitsunday	LNP	LNP
Woodridge	ALP	ALP

The six incorrect predictions were Aspley, Caloundra, Gaven, Hervey Bay, Nicklin and Brisbane South. In Aspley and Gaven the ALP incumbent held out against the LNP, and in Caloundra, Hervey Bay and Nicklin the ALP defeated the LNP, meaning that the result was stronger than expected for Labor. In Brisbane South the Greens defeated the ALP incumbent. At a superficial level it may be tempting to generalise this into a left-wing shift, but I don't see that as meaningful in Australian politics.

In 2020 the polling was not indicating any radical shift in polling sentiment. Three assumptions were made from this polling: anything considered fairly safe or better (6%+) would be unchanged, that One Nation's decline in polling would prevent them gaining seats and that a breakaway Liberal candidate in Whitsunday would lose his seat back to his party. For the most part these were good assumptions--state wide 2PP swing to Labor was +1.9 and One Nation's first preference was down 6.6 percentage points. However, Hervey Bay had been won in 2017 with a margin of 9.1 and saw an 11.1 pp swing in 2020. That is a weird outlier that wasn't predicted.

Hervey Bay (and Caloundra)

Hervey Bay covers Frasier Island and the mainland city of Hervey Bay. It was created in 1992. It was first held by Labor for six years, then by One Nation/One Nation Queensland/City Country Alliance for a term during the height of ONP's popularity. Labor recovered the seat in 2001 and held it for 8 years before being defeated by the LNP who kept if for the next decade. This was the situation as it stood in 2020.

The seat was clearly not immune to changing hands, but that hardly sets it apart from many others that behaved predictably.

The incumbent, Edward "Ted" Sorensen, was retiring in 2020. This was likely a significant factor--two other LNP candidates also retired in 2020, one in Pumicestone which was predicted to fall to Labor on this basis and the other in Caloundra which, like Hervey Bay) saw an unpredicted ALP take-over. The retirement of Mark McArdle was not factored into this call. Labor also had three retiring members (Kate Jones, Anthony Lynham and Coralee O'Rourke in the seats of Cooper, Stafford and Mundingburra respectively) but with the swing favouring Labor these all held (Cooper and Stafford were fairly safe, and Mundingburra was assessed as a Labor seat with a single historical outlier.

The lesson here for future (2022+) predictions is to not ignore the importance of incumbency.

Nicklin

With Caloundra explained on similar grounds to Hervey Bay, it remains to be determined what, if anything, can be taken as the oversight in Nicklin, which is the only other seat where Labor seized power. Nicklin was called on the basis that Labor had never won there. This isn't entirely irrelevant--going on history alone allowed us to correctly call 8 LNP and 11 ALP seats, and it's hard to find a seat with a more definitive history than Nicklin. It's also worth noting that Nicklin was won by the second-narrowest margin of 0.14 percentage points (second only to Bundaberg's 0.01).

On this ground I'm happy to treat this as a narrow outlier--no election will ever be perfectly predictable, after all.

Aspley and Gaven

Aspley, Redlands and Gaven were the last three seats predicted, a reliable sign I was running out of any meaningful data to work from. These were essentially tossups, with Aspley and Redlands called one for LNP and one for the ALP as insurance against a unforeseen landslide either way, and Gaven basically decided on a coin flip.

Both of these would have been right to call according to the original poll+pendulum prediction, which was suggesting no change, again emphasising the importance of incumbency in the absence of any other data. (Though, caveat: where electoral history is solid, this can be seen to be more important than the current member).

South Brisbane

South Brisbane was decided much earlier than Aspley or Gaven, and was confidently but wrongly called for ALP on the basis of a strong Labor history (which is likely in any seat the Greens win for the first time) and probably the unspoken recognition that most Australian voters thing in two-party terms.

I'm not sure there is enough data to test whether these are bad assumptions on my part, or South Brisbane is another outlier, but going forward it is important to not dismiss the possibility of a Greens win in a new seat.