US Senate

The seats of the US Senate are elected in three "classes", with around one third (33) elected each two years. This year has two special elections (Arizona and Georgia) Bringing this to 35 races.

A number of outlets have provided predictions already. In every seat but South Dakota, this can be supplemented by recent polling. Although some states have more frequent polls than others, those relatively neglected are generally pretty well known ahead of time. The existing predictions and polling can be aggregated as shown below to give us a reliable, if simple and fast, senatorial prediction.

STATE	INCUMBENT	EXPECTED	POLLING	PREDICTION
Alabama	Democrat	Republican	Republican	Republican
Alaska	Republican	Republican	Republican	Republican
Arizona*	Republican	Democrat	Democrat	Democrat
Arkansas	Republican	Republican	Republican	Republican
Colorado	Republican	Democrat	Democrat	Democrat
Delaware	Democrat	Democrat	Democrat	Democrat
Georgia	Republican	Tossup	Democrat	Democrat
Georgia*	Republican	Tossup	Democrat	Democrat
Idaho	Republican	Republican	Republican	Republican
Illinois	Democrat	Democrat	Democrat	Democrat
Iowa	Republican	Tossup	Tossup	Republican
Kansas	Republican	Republican	Tossup	Republican
Kentucky	Republican	Republican	Republican	Republican
Louisiana	Republican	Republican	Republican	Republican
Maine	Republican	Tossup	Democrat	Democrat
Massachusetts	Democrat	Democrat	Democrat	Democrat
Michigan	Democrat	Democrat	Democrat	Democrat
Minnesota	Democrat	Democrat	Democrat	Democrat
Mississippi	Republican	Republican	Republican	Republican
Montana	Republican	Tossup	Tossup	Republican
Nebraska	Republican	Republican	Republican	Republican
New Hampshire	Democrat	Democrat	Democrat	Democrat
New Jersey	Democrat	Democrat	Democrat	Democrat
New Mexico	Democrat	Democrat	Democrat	Democrat
North Carolina	Republican	Tossup	Democrat	Democrat
Oklahoma	Republican	Republican	Republican	Republican
Oregon	Democrat	Democrat	Democrat	Democrat
Rhode Island	Democrat	Democrat	Democrat	Democrat
South Carolina	Republican	Republican	Tossup	Republican
South Dakota	Republican	Republican	No Polling	Republican
Tennessee	Republican	Republican	Republican	Republican
Texas	Republican	Republican	Republican	Republican
Virginia	Democrat	Democrat	Democrat	Democrat
West Virginia	Republican	Republican	Republican	Republican
Wyoming	Republican	Republican	Republican	Republican

A few notes worth making:

Although polling in Iowa is inconclusive, it does favour a Republican win. This is contrary to Sabato's Crystal Ball and the fact that the current Republican, Joni Ernst, is completing her first term after five Democratic terms by Tom Harkin. Iowa is, for sure, the one to watch this year. Mostly be default I'm backing the incumbent here.

The other tough race to call is Montana. More pundits are sticking their necks out on this with Sabato, Daily Kos, 538 and Economist all tipping a Republican hold. On the other hand, when Steve Daines was elected in 1914, he was the first Republican to hold Montana's Class 2 senate seat in over a century. That said, he won it with a comfy 57.9% of the vote, so I'm backing the red corner here too.

This sees the Republicans gain Alabama; this is not a surprise as this is a strong Republican state where the Democrat won narrowly due to a scandal. The Republicans are likely to lose, however, Arizona, Colorado, Both Georgia senators, Maine and North Carolina. THis will give the Democrats controll of the Senate if they can count on the two Independents who have caucused with them to date.

Current Senate:    R - 53    D - 45    Ind - 2

Prediction:        R - 48    D - 50    Ind - 2