So, Queensland. Queensland's strange. Queensland's weird. And not just the usual Queensland weirdness, with its unicameral government and perpetual production of minor parties that achieve national support under a charismatic leader like Hanson, Katter or Palmer. No, this year, this 2020, Queensland is genuinely bizarre and it's all in the polling.
Normally as a starting point we take the seats as they stand, calculate the swing since last election, add or subtract it and that gives us a start on the predictions. But this year, in Queensland, the swing isn't swinging. let's look first at the two-party preferred vote:
2017 Election Result: ALP 51.2 LNP 48.8
Latest Polling: ALP 51 LNP 49
SWING TO ALP: -0.2
Remembering the margin of error on polls is generally around 3%, that's a swing that amounts to two-fifths of nothing. Under this scenario, no seats change hands; the starting prediction is that every politician is returned. But it's even stranger than that. Broken down to primary votes:
2017 Election Result: ALP 35.4% LNP 33.7% Grn 10.0% ONP 13.7% Other 7.2%
Latest Polling: ALP 36% LNP 35% Grn 10% ONP 12% Other 7%
Every polled party is within the margin of error of its 2017 result. The Green vote is spot on. Others are off only by a question of significant figures. Labor is .1% off of being a rounding issue too. The only visible movement is a one-point-something percentage point shift of voters from One Nation to the Liberal National Party.
I've never seen a race so unshifted. There's no excitement for another term of ALP government, and no disillusionment or backlash. I don't know how you get such stagnation in any year, but the fact that Queenslanders in 2020--in 2020!--are on aggregate in the same place they were in 2017 is just wild to me.
So, the swing is unmeasurable; what do we do now?
Flail with the Numbers in the Absence of Method
The Mackerras Pendulum generally divides seats into four categories: Marginal (<6%); Fairly Safe (6-10%); Safe (10-20%) and Very Safe (20%+). Given how nonvolatile this election is, and given we don't have all year before it happens, I'm going to suggest that anything that is usually Fairly Safe or better won't be shifting. Also, noting that One Nation is the only party in any measurable decline, any race where One Nation came in second place is similarly considered locked in. Finally North Queensland First is assumed to prove unsuccessful for expelled former LNP member Jason Costigan and Whitsunday will return to the LNP.
| ELECTORATE | INCUMBENT | PREDICTION | |
| Algester | ALP | ALP | |
| Aspley | ALP | ||
| Bancroft | ALP | ALP | |
| Barron River | ALP | ||
| Bonney | LNP | ||
| Broadwater | LNP | LNP | |
| Buderim | LNP | LNP | |
| Bulimba | ALP | ALP | |
| Bundaberg | LNP | ||
| Bundamba | ALP | ALP | |
| Burdekin | LNP | ||
| Burleigh | LNP | ||
| Burnett | LNP | LNP | |
| Cairns | ALP | ||
| Callide | LNP | LNP | |
| Caloundra | LNP | ||
| Capalaba | ALP | ALP | |
| Chatsworth | LNP | ||
| Clayfield | LNP | ||
| Condamine | LNP | LNP | |
| Cook | ALP | ALP | |
| Coomera | LNP | ||
| Cooper | ALP | ALP | |
| Currumbin | LNP | ||
| Everton | LNP | ||
| Ferny Grove | ALP | ||
| Gaven | ALP | ||
| Gladstone | ALP | ALP | |
| Glass House | LNP | ||
| Greenslopes | ALP | ALP | |
| Gregory | LNP | LNP | |
| Gympie | LNP | LNP | |
| Hervey Bay | LNP | LNP | |
| Hill | KAP | KAP | |
| Hinchinbrook | KAP | KAP | |
| Inala | ALP | ALP | |
| Ipswich | ALP | ALP | |
| Ipswich West | ALP | ALP | |
| Jordan | ALP | ALP | |
| Kawana | LNP | LNP | |
| Keppel | ALP | ALP | |
| Kurwongbah | ALP | ALP | |
| Lockyer | LNP | LNP | |
| Logan | ALP | ALP | |
| Lytton | ALP | ALP | |
| Macalister | ALP | ALP | |
| Mackay | ALP | ALP | |
| Maiwar | GRN | ||
| Mansfield | ALP | ||
| Maroochydore | LNP | LNP | |
| Maryborough | ALP | ALP | |
| McConnel | ALP | ALP | |
| Mermaid Beach | LNP | LNP | |
| Miller | ALP | ALP | |
| Mirani | ONP | ||
| Moggill | LNP | ||
| Morayfield | ALP | ALP | |
| Mount Ommaney | ALP | ||
| Mudgeeraba | LNP | LNP | |
| Mulgrave | ALP | ALP | |
| Mundingburra | ALP | ||
| Murrumba | ALP | ALP | |
| Nanango | LNP | LNP | |
| Nicklin | LNP | ||
| Ninderry | LNP | LNP | |
| Noosa | IND | IND | |
| Nudgee | ALP | ALP | |
| Oodgeroo | LNP | LNP | |
| Pine Rivers | ALP | ALP | |
| Pumicestone | LNP | ||
| Redcliffe | ALP | ||
| Redlands | ALP | ||
| Rockhampton | ALP | ALP | |
| Sandgate | ALP | ALP | |
| Scenic Rim | LNP | LNP | |
| South Brisbane | ALP | ||
| Southern Downs | LNP | LNP | |
| Southport | LNP | LNP | |
| Springwood | ALP | ||
| Stafford | ALP | ALP | |
| Stretton | ALP | ALP | |
| Surfers Paradise | LNP | LNP | |
| Theodore | LNP | ||
| Thuringowa | ALP | ALP | |
| Toohey | ALP | ALP | |
| Toowoomba North | LNP | ||
| Toowoomba South | LNP | LNP | |
| Townsville | ALP | ||
| Traeger | KAP | KAP | |
| Warrego | LNP | LNP | |
| Waterford | ALP | ALP | |
| Whitsunday |
|
LNP | |
| Woodridge | ALP | ALP |
Case by Case
Queensland, in its weirdness, has 28 electorates (30%) whose 2017 2PP result was not a Labor v LNP race. Normally these play havoc with the pendulum-swing method usually employed here, but conveniently abandoned. KAP's 3 seats well into the Fairly Safe (Hinchinbrook, 7.6%), Safe (Hill, 19.7%) and Very Safe (Traeger, 28.5%) categories and already predicted above. Likewise in Noosa where Independent Sandy Bolton is recontesting off of her 2017 11.5% lead. Though, of course, state-wide polling won't factor in Bolton's local appeal, it would be rare for an Independent to win a seat so comfortably, recontest without a scandal and then lose.
By dismissing the possibility of a One Nation uprising, all twelve ALP v ONP and eight LNP v ONP races are predicted as well. Also covered above is Warrego, where the LNP's Fairly Safe 9.5% lead on Katter's Australian Party is considered enough to hold on.
The only races involving minor parties that haven't been predicted at this stage are the two incumbents (Greens in Maiwar and One Nation in Mirani) and the South Brisbane ALP v Grn race.
South Brisbane has been a safe ALP seat since Colin Lamont lost it in 1977, including being former premier Anna Bligh's seat from 1995 to 2012. It doesn't take much courage to back the ALP to hold it this year.
Mirani was owned by the Country, then National, then Liberal Nationals party from 1947 until 2015. It went to Labour for one term (2015-2017) and then was snatched back by One Nation. The 2017 race saw ONP easily outperform LNP on primary votes and almost beat Labour; the flow-on LNP votes shot their candidate Stephen Andrew into the seat and his incumbency and margin over the LNP should help him hold on again.
Maiwar has only been around for one election, being won by the Greens in its 2017 debut. Before that the area was divided between Mount Coot-tha and Indooroopilly, both with mixed histories but the former leaning Labour most recenty and the latter LNP. The Greens victory came after beating Labour by 78 primary votes, holding the lead after an Independent was eliminated and then scooping up the lion's share of ALP preferences. It is safe to assume, should the fortunes reverse, most Greens preferences would likely flow ALP. So it's almost certain Maiwar will be left-of-centre when all is said and done. Forced to decide, I think incumbency will give the Greens recognition and legitimacy to lock in their lead over the ALP and repeat 2017's result; in practice the incumbent Michael Berkman has had a pretty good coverage in the local news and was the de facto opponent for LNP's Lauren Day in a local debate. In truth, though, this should be a tossup.
This still leaves 28 seats untested. The LNP has more to lose here (16, vs ALP's 12) and starts at a disadvantage of needing to win 9 in order to lead. Still, if the latest polling tells us anything (and I'm far from sure it does) it's that the LNP will see a slight boost. This is good news for the close LNP incumbents looking to hold on, and can suggest a safe LNP bet for a number of seats. Burliegh, Chatsworth and Toowomba North have a mixed history, but the LNP has held on since 2012 against the fall of the Newman government, and will likely do so again. Glass House has been holding the line since 2009.
Despite a decent ALP history Tim Mander has held on to Everton since 2012 and as Deputy Leader of the LNP seems likely to hang in through 2020. Mogil and Nicklin were formed in 1986 and have never been won by the ALP. Burdekin has been allover the conservative map, but only held by Labor for one term. In that time Currumbin has only had one Labor incumbent (1992-2004). Clayfield's only ALP candidate was Liddy Clark, '01 to '06. Caloundra has been blue since it was created in 1992. Coomera has been a reliable win for the LNP since it was formed in 2009.
Bonney and Theodore were both created in 2017 and don't have the data to assess historical trends. In both races the combined ALP/Green vote rivalled the LNP and it came down to preferences from the ONP or INDs. The minimal decline in the former in the polls is perhaps linked to the tiny rise for the LNP, so both seats are more likely to stay than fall.
Bundaberg, however, has a solid Labor history, Jack Dempsey not withsanding, and could easily fall to the ALP. Similarly, Pumicestone is probably more historically Labor, and with one-term LNP incumbent Simone Wilson retiring a return is not improbable.
All 12 of the ALP-held seats as yet unpredicted have a mixed history, most being won from the LNP in 2015. This makes them plausible gains and ultimately come down the the ground-game the two major parties play in each one. Still, the LNP needs to pick up nine of these--three quarters--to get a majority government. That seems like a stretch.
Excluding the 2012-15 one-term LNP government under Campbel Newman, Labour has a long history in Barron River (since 1998), Cairns (1912 including Independent Labour for one term), Ferny Grove (1992, the seat's creation), Mansfield (1998), Mount Ommaney (1998), Mundingburra (1998), Springwood (1998) and Townsville (1989); it seems sensible to ignore the Newman outlier and call these ALP seats. The number that flipped in 1998 before Peter Beatie locked in the ALP's long run might suggest otherwise, but you have to make a call somewhere, right?
Labor's Yvette D'Ath ended the 2015 anomaly early by winning a 2014 by-election and making Redcliffe one of Labor's safest she's been successful as the Queensland AG which should get her some name recognition. Aspley and Redlands, on the other hand, were late to the ALP party (being won in 2017) and are possibly more vulnerable. Aspley has the narrower margin and with the wild hope that a bet each way will pay off I'll suggest LNP gain the seat but don't quite get over the line in Redlands.
The seat of Gaven has a rather Conservative recent history and, for the love of something flipping, I'll call it a LNP gain.
The Final, Wild Guess
| ELECTORATE | INCUMBENT | PREDICTION | |
| Algester | ALP | ALP | |
| Aspley | ALP | LNP | |
| Bancroft | ALP | ALP | |
| Barron River | ALP | ALP | |
| Bonney | LNP | LNP | |
| Broadwater | LNP | LNP | |
| Buderim | LNP | LNP | |
| Bulimba | ALP | ALP | |
| Bundaberg | LNP | ALP | |
| Bundamba | ALP | ALP | |
| Burdekin | LNP | LNP | |
| Burleigh | LNP | LNP | |
| Burnett | LNP | LNP | |
| Cairns | ALP | ALP | |
| Callide | LNP | LNP | |
| Caloundra | LNP | LNP | |
| Capalaba | ALP | ALP | |
| Chatsworth | LNP | LNP | |
| Clayfield | LNP | LNP | |
| Condamine | LNP | LNP | |
| Cook | ALP | ALP | |
| Coomera | LNP | LNP | |
| Cooper | ALP | ALP | |
| Currumbin | LNP | LNP | |
| Everton | LNP | LNP | |
| Ferny Grove | ALP | ALP | |
| Gaven | ALP | LNP | |
| Gladstone | ALP | ALP | |
| Glass House | LNP | LNP | |
| Greenslopes | ALP | ALP | |
| Gregory | LNP | LNP | |
| Gympie | LNP | LNP | |
| Hervey Bay | LNP | LNP | |
| Hill | KAP | KAP | |
| Hinchinbrook | KAP | KAP | |
| Inala | ALP | ALP | |
| Ipswich | ALP | ALP | |
| Ipswich West | ALP | ALP | |
| Jordan | ALP | ALP | |
| Kawana | LNP | LNP | |
| Keppel | ALP | ALP | |
| Kurwongbah | ALP | ALP | |
| Lockyer | LNP | LNP | |
| Logan | ALP | ALP | |
| Lytton | ALP | ALP | |
| Macalister | ALP | ALP | |
| Mackay | ALP | ALP | |
| Maiwar | GRN | GRN | |
| Mansfield | ALP | ALP | |
| Maroochydore | LNP | LNP | |
| Maryborough | ALP | ALP | |
| McConnel | ALP | ALP | |
| Mermaid Beach | LNP | LNP | |
| Miller | ALP | ALP | |
| Mirani | ONP | ONP | |
| Moggill | LNP | LNP | |
| Morayfield | ALP | ALP | |
| Mount Ommaney | ALP | ALP | |
| Mudgeeraba | LNP | LNP | |
| Mulgrave | ALP | ALP | |
| Mundingburra | ALP | ALP | |
| Murrumba | ALP | ALP | |
| Nanango | LNP | LNP | |
| Nicklin | LNP | LNP | |
| Ninderry | LNP | LNP | |
| Noosa | IND | IND | |
| Nudgee | ALP | ALP | |
| Oodgeroo | LNP | LNP | |
| Pine Rivers | ALP | ALP | |
| Pumicestone | LNP | ALP | |
| Redcliffe | ALP | ALP | |
| Redlands | ALP | ALP | |
| Rockhampton | ALP | ALP | |
| Sandgate | ALP | ALP | |
| Scenic Rim | LNP | LNP | |
| South Brisbane | ALP | ALP | |
| Southern Downs | LNP | LNP | |
| Southport | LNP | LNP | |
| Springwood | ALP | ALP | |
| Stafford | ALP | ALP | |
| Stretton | ALP | ALP | |
| Surfers Paradise | LNP | LNP | |
| Theodore | LNP | LNP | |
| Thuringowa | ALP | ALP | |
| Toohey | ALP | ALP | |
| Toowoomba North | LNP | LNP | |
| Toowoomba South | LNP | LNP | |
| Townsville | ALP | ALP | |
| Traeger | KAP | KAP | |
| Warrego | LNP | LNP | |
| Waterford | ALP | ALP | |
| Whitsunday |
|
LNP | |
| Woodridge | ALP | ALP |
Unsurprisingly, that leaves little change in the pendulum, but will see the LNP regain its lost Whitsunday seat and the proportional makeup of the Qld Legislative Assembly largely unchanged:
2017 Election Result: ALP 48 LNP 39* KAP 3 Grn 1 ONP 1
2020 Prediction: ALP 48 LNP 39 KAP 3 Grn 1 ONP 1
*38 after expelling Whitsunday MLA.
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