Unsurprisingly in a preferential system, the majority of seats have historically been won by the major parties.
| Primary Vote | First Preference Seats | |||||
| Metro East | ALP | LIB | ALP | LIB | ||
| 2014 | 28.8% | 45.9% | 1.73 | 2.75 | ||
| 2010 | 30.5% | 51.7% | 1.83 | 3.10 | ||
| 2006 | 36.0% | 44.9% | 2.16 | 2.69 | ||
| Metro North | ALP | LIB | GRN | ALP | LIB | GRN |
| 2014 | 40.4% | 21.9% | 18.6% | 2.42 | 1.31 | 1.11 |
| 2010 | 41.9% | 27.1% | 19.2% | 2.52 | 1.63 | 1.15 |
| 2006 | 48.9% | 23.3% | 17.1% | 2.94 | 1.40 | 1.02 |
| Metro South | ALP | LIB | GRN | ALP | LIB | GRN |
| 2014 | 25.2% | 42.7% | 15.5% | 1.51 | 2.56 | 0.93 |
| 2010 | 25.3% | 51.6% | 16.3% | 1.52 | 3.09 | 0.98 |
| 2006 | 31.2% | 46.3% | 15.7% | 1.87 | 2.78 | 0.94 |
| Metro South East | ALP | LIB | ALP | LIB | ||
| 2014 | 40.1% | 35.2% | 2.41 | 2.11 | ||
| 2010 | 43.4% | 40.9% | 2.60 | 2.46 | ||
| 2006 | 49.8% | 33.7% | 2.99 | 2.02 | ||
| Metro West | ALP | LIB | ALP | LIB | ||
| 2014 | 44.0% | 23.6% | 2.64 | 1.41 | ||
| 2010 | 46.9% | 29.6% | 2.81 | 1.78 | ||
| 2006 | 58.8% | 24.5% | 3.53 | 1.47 | ||
| Victoria East | ALP | LIB | NAT | ALP | LIB | NAT |
| 2014 | 29.0% | 41.6% | 1.74 | 2.49 | ||
| 2010 | 28.4% | 52.8% | 1.70 | 3.17 | ||
| 2006 | 34.9% | 47.9% | 2.09 | 2.87 | ||
| Victoria North | ALP | LIB | NAT | ALP | LIB | NAT |
| 2014 | 26.4% | 41.2% | 1.58 | 2.47 | ||
| 2010 | 27.1% | 49.0% | 1.63 | 2.94 | ||
| 2006 | 30.1% | 50.4% | 1.81 | 3.02 | ||
| Victoria West | ALP | LIB | NAT | ALP | LIB | NAT |
| 2014 | 34.1% | 37.0% | 2.04 | 2.22 | ||
| 2010 | 38.3% | 43.3% | 2.30 | 2.60 | ||
| 2006 | 42.1% | 40.8% | 2.53 | 2.45 | ||
On these numbers, the law of averages is going to suggest the following initial allocations:
Metro East: ALP 2, LIB 3
Metro North: ALP 2, LIB 1, GRN 1, 1 undecided
Metro South: ALP 1, LIB 2, GRN 1, 1 undecided
Metro South East: ALP 2, LIB 2, 1 undecided
Metro West: ALP 2, LIB 1, 2 undecided
Victoria East: ALP 2, Coalition 2, 1 undecided
Victoria North: ALP 1, Coalition 2, 2 undecided
Victoria West: ALP 2, Coalition 2, 1 undecided
To fill in the undecided, consideration must be given to any party who
(a) is allocated a seat above,
(b) other than in (a) has been elected to the Legislative Council previously,
(c) polled highest of the parties other than in (a), or
(d) in the regions with two vacancies, polled highest of the parties other than in (a) or (c)
The parties to be considered under (b) are:
Metro North: Reason (2014)
Metro South: None
Metro South East: Greens (2014)
Metro West: Greens (2006, 2010, 2014), Democratic Labor (2014)
Victoria East: Shooters and Fishers (2014)
Victoria North: Shooters and Fishers (2014)
Victoria West: Democratic Labor (2006)
The parties to be considered under (c) and (d) are:
Metro North: Democratic Labor (2006, 2014), Reason (2010)
Metro South: Family First (2006), Reason (2010, 2014)
Metro South East: Greens (2006, 2010, 2014)
Metro West(c): Greens (2006, 2010, 2014)
Metro West(d): Family First (2006), Reason (2010), Liberal Democrats (2014)
Victoria East: Greens (2006, 2010, 2014)
Victoria North(c): Greens (2006, 2010, 2014)
Victoria North(d): Family First (2006), Country Alliance (2010), Democratic Labor Party (2014)
Victoria West: Greens (2006, 2010, 2014)
Metro North
In Metro North, the Reason Party (formerly the Australian Sex Party) is the only other party to ever win a seat (2014) and polled higher than any unmentioned party in 2010 (0.22 seats primary vote). It did not contest the 2006 election in Metro North, where the DLP won 0.31 seats on primary votes. The DLP beat the Reason Party on primaries in 2014, winning 0.18 seats over Reasons's 0.17. This contest will divide much of the lower votes into the right (DLP) and left (Reason), the latter including the GRN run-off which consistently but barely breaks 1.00 seats. Because of this narrow Greens margin, Reason will probably outlast the Greens in a run for the final seat and with that extra ~0.1 seats and miscellaneous gains from minor parties will be well positioned to take the last seat.The real problem for Reason is beating Labor and Liberal polls. Reason won against remainders of 0.42 and 0.31 seats respectively in 2014, but the ALP polled as high as 0.94 of their third seat in 2006 which would almost guarantee the lock-out of other parties.
Although untested at this point I suspect the amount of support for minor parties correlates with dissatisfaction with the major parties. Although there is no direct data on this, there is polling on the satisfaction with the major party leaders. The bad news for Reason is that satisfaction with the ALP's Daniel Andrews is up from last election and dissatisfaction is down; the reverse is true of the Liberals' leaders, but that may simply translate into a two-party swing rather than minor party support, and probably not left-wing minor party support at any rate.
For this reason, I am tipping the ALP to pick up the last seat; the consistently pull in around 2.5 seats on primary votes, are in favour according to polling and can probably block out minor parties. Alternatives in decreasing order of likelihood are Reason, Liberal, DLP, Greens, and Australian Country Party. It is also possible a strong ALP polling could undermine the Greens to some extent.
Metro South
Since the regions were established, Labor, Liberal and Greens are the only parties to win seats. Family First was the main contender in 2006 with 0.13 seats in their primary vote. Reason reached 0.19 and 0.15 in the subsequent elections, but with the LIBs consistently breaking 2.5 and exceeding 3 outright seats in 2010 those numbers are nowhere near high enough. On trend, the LIBs should pick up the final seat, but this is a good polling year for the ALP. Either way, it will be a major party taking the final seat. With the Greens eating up some of the progressive vote to win their seat I'm still going to back the LIBS here.Metro South East
Polling around the 0.4 or 0.5 seat primary mark, even the Greens struggle to break into Metro South East. 2014 was their only success, and the party's stocks are down a little from then. If a major party were to take the last seat, it would be the ALP judging by history, and the swing is in their favour. I'm tipping MSE to go ALP 3, LIB 2.Metro West
The final metro seat, Metro West has two seats to fill. The Greens have always won one here and with primary votes worth over half a seat they are easily the #3 party. It is possible one major party could beat them for another rep in the council, but highly unlikely both could do so. Backing the Greens to pick up a seat here is a safe bet, but expecting more than that is unrealistic. The final place, then, could be ALP, LIB or another minor party.DLP currently holds that place and is the only minor party to do so. On primary votes alone, Family First on the right (not running) was the best shot in 2006, Reason on the left led the way in 2010, and the LibDems who don't even sit on the normal spectrum were well polled in 2014. The minor party vote is obviously fractured and all over the place, with large proportions of the voting base giving them support as demonstrated by the fact that two seats are open to them.
On balance I expect a minor party to come in fifth, but the flow on effects that got DLP over the line are very hard to predict here, so I am going to suggest an ALP win just because I know they have a shot whatever fluctuations shake the little guys.
Victoria East
Although the Greens poll best in primary votes among the minor parties, it is well known that the conservative rural areas are not their strongest supporters and a fractured right wing primary vote should not be mistaken for weak opposition. Shooters and Fishers won the last spot in 2014 from a very scattered minor party vote. Very few minor parties poll a primary vote in the quintuple digits normally, yet in 2014 VE gave us the Greens (over 37 thousand), the LibDems (over 20 thousand), Reason, Shooters and Fishers, and Palmer United (over 10 thousand each).It is reasonable to expect the ALP to take a second seat, but it will burn a lot of the progressive vote to get there having traditionally fallen around a third of a quota short on primaries. This pretty much rules out the Greens chances her, and Reason too, for that matter. If the Greens do get in it will be at Labor's expense. Either way, there is a final seat to be filled with a conservative voice. Shooters have the track record to argue from. Palmer isn't running a candidate, and the DLP seem to do better in other regions. The LibDems may have the primary votes to pull it off, but that didn't help in 2014.
Shooters are my first bet for the last seat. In decreasing order of likeliness, DLP, LibDems and Greens are back up guesses. Greens may take one of Labor's projected seats, though this is unlikely. As in all three non-metro seats, LIB and NAT are considered interchangeable.
Victoria North
Although there are two seats up for grabs here, only one non-major party has won here: Shooters and Fishers in 2014. As with Victoria East, the fact that the Greens have a large margin over any one conservative party should not be read as them being well placed. Next in primary vote has been a rotation of conservatives--Family First, Country Alliance, DLP--highlighting the number of competing right-wing groups whose preferences will coalesce to propel one (recently the Shooters) past the Greens.For the ALP to get their second, they will have to eat up some left preferences from the Greens or elsewhere. As the ALP's remainder has always been bigger than the Green's primary vote, and polling has the Greens down and Labor up, this seems most likely. This leaves the right to take seat 5. In 2006 and 2010 the Coalition almost won 3 seats outright, so the question, in reality, is whether it will be the Coalition (LIB and NAT being a single ticket here) or a minor party.
Pragmatically, there is no way to pick which minor party would do best, so I am backing the Coalition who are at least assured of being in the mix.
Victoria West
Once again it is best to assume the Greens dominance of minor parties is of little consequence. DLP took a seat back in 2006, the only minor to do so, but the major parties have held VW since. High primary votes in 2014 include Palmer United (not running), Reason (who will be absorbed by the ALP or GRN block), Shooters and Fishers and the LibDems (who have not done well on preference flows in the non-metro regions).If it comes down to a major party, the Coalition will take seat 5. However neither has a massive margin to play with and a minor party challenge is possible. In real terms, it will probably be Shooters or DLP, and recently the former has been reliably outperforming the latter. I'm backing the Shooters to win the last seat here, controversially, though a Coalition win would not be implausible.
Prediction
Metro East: ALP 2, LIB 3Metro North: ALP 3, LIB 1, GRN 1
Metro South: ALP 1, LIB 3, GRN 1
Metro South East: ALP 3, LIB 2
Metro West: ALP 3, LIB 1, GRN 1
Victoria East: ALP 2, Coalition 2, Shooters 1
Victoria North: ALP 2, Coalition 3
Victoria West: ALP 2, Coalition 2, Shooters 1
ALP: 18
Coalition: 18
Other: 5
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