Sunday 4 November 2018

The Thin Blue Wave

This Tuesday will see the US midterms come and go. All of the House of Representatives, a third of the Senate and several Gubernatorial elections are all lined up, and there is much talk of the 'Blue Wave'--the predicted landslide to the Democrats resulting from, among other things, the catastrophically unpopular ranking of President Trump. This is particularly emphasised in the discussion of the House of Representatives with much talk of the Democrats taking back the house.

It is undoubtedly true that midterms traditionally result in substantial losses for whichever party holds the White House, especially in a president's first term. And by all measures, it certainly seems that a double-digit figure of seats in the House will be taken from the Republicans by the Democrats. However, it is important to realise that last election the Democratic Party ended up 47 seats behind the Republicans, and taking back the house is not going to be a simple matter of waiting for the inevitable.

Also, the common reasoning that underlies the 'Blue Wave' predictions is one of presidential unpopularity. It is absolutely correct that most polls have had Trump consistently underperforming recent presidents in popularity, but this doesn't show the full picture. A typically unpopular president from the Republican Party (for example) will usually see the political right unmotivated to get out and vote while the left enthusiastically casts their collective ballots against the incumbent. The identity politics employed in America by both sides, but most relevantly by conservatives, will erode this normal behaviour. Trump may be unpopular in general, but his supporters are as enthusiastic and ready as ever. It is also worth remembering that Trump was a controversial and unpopular figure in 2016 yet still came to power. The electoral college was a factor in that, to be sure, but Trump was not as soundly rebuked in the popular vote as many (including myself) had expected.

For this reason, it pays to be wary of the generalisations that underpin expectations of a Democratic landslide. Their position will likely improve dramatically this week, but I would not place any money on an overwhelming majority in the House, and that's supposed to be the easy fight.

The House

Before getting down to the numbers, a note about the methodology. Because of the two-party dominance of US politics (no doubt more than a little to blame on the first-past-the-post system employed), I have paid no attention to independents or minor parties. There are several seats, however, without a contestant from one of the major parties. Generally, these are heavily gerrymandered seats where one party realises any amount of time or effort would be wasted. There are no Republican candidates in the districts of:
  • Alabama 7
  • Arizona 7
  • California 5
  • California 6
  • California13
  • California 20
  • California 27
  • California 34
  • California 40
  • California 44
  • Florida 10
  • Florida 14
  • Florida 20
  • Florida 21
  • Florida 24
  • Georgia 5
  • Massachusetts 1
  • Massachusetts 4
  • Massachusetts 7
  • Massachusetts 8
  • Michigan 13
  • Mississippi 2
  • New York 5
  • New York 6
  • New York 16
  • New York 17
  • Oregon 3
  • Pensylvania 18
  • Texas 9
  • Texas 20
  • Texas 28
  • Texas 30
  • Virginia 3
  • Washington 2
  • Washington 9
  • Wisconsin 2
There are no Democratic candidates running in :
  • California 8
  • Georgia 8
  • North Carolina 3
There is also an absence of official Republican candidates in New York's 7th and 8th congressional districts, though both have a candidate from the Conservative Party which I am treating as a proxy Republican.

The Numbers

Unfortunately, US data is a lot more patchy had hard to work with than in Australia, in part due to the individual states having separate rules and voting systems. For a simple starting point, I decided to try to determine a baseline value of the vote in 2016 for each state. The data I could find was complicated by the previously noted tendency of major parties not contesting certain districts and a situation where non-major-party votes were statistically evident yet ultimately irrelevant. To correct for this latter issue, results are portrayed as the lead the ultimately successful Republican party held in each seat given by:
____


This equation means that in the following table, the more positive the value, the bigger the margin for the Republicans, and the further negative the greater the margin for the Democrats.

2016 Results - Alabama to California
 2016 Results - Georgia to Mississippi
 2016 Results - Missouri to Oregon
2016 Results - Pennsylvania to Wyoming

In 2016 the Republican popular vote in the house was around 50.6% of the two-party vote. In the latest polling, they reportedly recieved only 45.8% indicating a swing of 4.7 percentage points to the Democrats.

District Republican Support 2016 Republican Support -4.7% Result
Alabama 1st No Democrat Not Applicable Republican*
Alabama 2nd 5.0% 0.3% Republican
Alabama 3rd 17.0% 12.3% Republican
Alabama 4th No Democrat Not Applicable Republican*
Alabama 5th 17.0% 12.3% Republican
Alabama 6th 25.0% 20.3% Republican
Alabama 7th No Republican No Republican Democrat
Alaska at large 8.6% 3.9% Republican
Arizona 1st -4.3% -9.0% Democrat
Arizona 2nd 7.0% 2.3% Republican
Arizona 3rd No Republican Not Applicable Democrat*
Arizona 4th 21.3% 16.6% Republican
Arizona 5th 14.0% 9.3% Republican
Arizona 6th 12.0% 7.3% Republican
Arizona 7th -25.0% No Republican Democrat
Arizona 8th No Democrat Not Applicable Republican*
Arizona 9th -11.0% -15.7% Democrat
Arkansas 1st No Democrat Not Applicable Republican*
Arkansas 2nd 11.1% 6.4% Republican
Arkansas 3rd No Democrat Not Applicable Republican*
Arkansas 4th No Democrat Not Applicable Republican*
California 1st 9.0% 4.3% Republican
California 2nd -27.0% -31.7% Democrat
California 3rd -9.0% -13.7% Democrat
California 4th 13.0% 8.3% Republican
California 5th -27.0% No Republican Democrat
California 6th -25.0% No Republican Democrat
California 7th -1.0% -5.7% Democrat
California 8th 12.0% No Democrat Republican
California 9th -7.0% -11.7% Democrat
California 10th 2.0% -2.7% Democrat
California 11th -22.0% -26.7% Democrat
California 12th No Republican Not Applicable Democrat*
California 13th -41.0% No Republican Democrat
California 14th -31.0% -35.7% Democrat
California 15th -24.0% -28.7% Democrat
California 16th -8.0% -12.7% Democrat
California 17th No Republican Not Applicable Democrat*
California 18th -21.0% -25.7% Democrat
California 19th -24.0% -28.7% Democrat
California 20th -21.0% No Republican Democrat
California 21st 7.0% 2.3% Republican
California 22nd 18.0% 13.3% Republican
California 23rd 19.0% 14.3% Republican
California 24th -3.0% -7.7% Democrat
California 25th 3.0% -1.7% Democrat
California 26th -10.0% -14.7% Democrat
California 27th -17.0% No Republican Democrat
California 28th -28.0% -32.7% Democrat
California 29th No Republican Not Applicable Democrat*
California 30th -23.0% -27.7% Democrat
California 31st -6.0% -10.7% Democrat
California 32nd No Republican Not Applicable Democrat*
California 33rd -16.0% -20.7% Democrat
California 34th No Republican No Republican Democrat
California 35th -22.0% -26.7% Democrat
California 36th -12.0% -16.7% Democrat
California 37th No Republican Not Applicable Democrat*
California 38th -20.3% -25.0% Democrat
California 39th 7.0% 2.3% Republican
California 40th No Republican No Republican Democrat
California 41st -15.0% -19.7% Democrat
California 42nd 9.0% 4.3% Republican
California 43rd -26.0% -30.7% Democrat
California 44th No Republican No Republican Democrat
California 45th 9.0% 4.3% Republican
California 46th No Republican Not Applicable Democrat*
California 47th -14.0% -18.7% Democrat
California 48th 8.0% 3.3% Republican
California 49th 0.0% -4.7% Democrat
California 50th 13.4% 8.7% Republican
California 51st -23.0% -27.7% Democrat
California 52nd -6.4% -11.1% Democrat
California 53rd -17.0% -21.7% Democrat
Colorado 1st -20.8% -25.5% Democrat
Colorado 2nd -10.6% -15.3% Democrat
Colorado 3rd 7.9% 3.2% Republican
Colorado 4th 16.7% 12.0% Republican
Colorado 5th 16.7% 12.0% Republican
Colorado 6th 4.3% -0.4% Democrat
Colorado 7th -7.9% -12.6% Democrat
Connecticut 1st -15.3% -20.0% Democrat
Connecticut 2nd -14.9% -19.6% Democrat
Connecticut 3rd -19.0% -23.7% Democrat
Connecticut 4th -10.0% -14.7% Democrat
Connecticut 5th -8.0% -12.7% Democrat
Delaware at large  -7.7% -12.4% Democrat
Florida 1st 19.0% 14.3% Republican
Florida 2nd 19.1% 14.4% Republican
Florida 3rd 8.8% 4.1% Republican
Florida 4th 21.4% 16.7% Republican
Florida 5th -14.0% -18.7% Democrat
Florida 6th 9.0% 4.3% Republican
Florida 7th -1.5% -6.2% Democrat
Florida 8th 15.6% 10.9% Republican
Florida 9th -7.4% -12.1% Democrat
Florida 10th -15.0% No Republican Democrat
Florida 11th 17.0% 12.3% Republican
Florida 12th 19.0% 14.3% Republican
Florida 13th -2.0% -6.7% Democrat
Florida 14th -12.0% No Republican Democrat
Florida 15th 7.4% 2.7% Republican
Florida 16th 10.0% 5.3% Republican
Florida 17th 14.6% 9.9% Republican
Florida 18th 5.7% 1.0% Republican
Florida 19th 16.0% 11.3% Republican
Florida 20th -30.0% No Republican Democrat
Florida 21st -14.3% No Republican Democrat
Florida 22nd -9.0% -13.7% Democrat
Florida 23rd -8.2% -12.9% Democrat
Florida 24th No Republican No Republican Democrat
Florida 25th 12.0% 7.3% Republican
Florida 26th 6.4% 1.7% Republican
Florida 27th 5.0% 0.3% Republican
Georgia 1st No Democrat Not Applicable Republican*
Georgia 2nd -11.0% -15.7% Democrat
Georgia 3rd 18.0% 13.3% Republican
Georgia 4th -26.0% -30.7% Democrat
Georgia 5th -34.0% No Republican Democrat
Georgia 6th 12.0% 7.3% Republican
Georgia 7th 10.0% 5.3% Republican
Georgia 8th 18.0% No Democrat Republican
Georgia 9th No Democrat Not Applicable Republican*
Georgia 10th No Democrat Not Applicable Republican*
Georgia 11th 17.0% 12.3% Republican
Georgia 12th 12.0% 7.3% Republican
Georgia 13th No Republican Not Applicable Democrat*
Georgia 14th No Democrat Not Applicable Republican*
Hawaii 1st -25.8% -30.5% Democrat
Hawaii 2nd -31.0% -35.7% Democrat
Idaho 1st 18.0% 13.3% Republican
Idaho 2nd 18.5% 13.8% Republican
Illinois 1st -24.0% -28.7% Democrat
Illinois 2nd -30.0% -34.7% Democrat
Illinois 3rd No Republican Not Applicable Democrat*
Illinois 4th No Republican Not Applicable Democrat*
Illinois 5th -20.8% -25.5% Democrat
Illinois 6th 9.0% 4.3% Republican
Illinois 7th -34.0% -38.7% Democrat
Illinois 8th -8.0% -12.7% Democrat
Illinois 9th -16.3% -21.0% Democrat
Illinois 10th -3.0% -7.7% Democrat
Illinois 11th -10.0% -14.7% Democrat
Illinois 12th 7.4% 2.7% Republican
Illinois 13th 10.0% 5.3% Republican
Illinois 14th 9.0% 4.3% Republican
Illinois 15th No Democrat Not Applicable Republican*
Illinois 16th No Democrat Not Applicable Republican*
Illinois 17th -10.0% -14.7% Democrat
Illinois 18th 22.0% 17.3% Republican
Indiana 1st No Republican Not Applicable Democrat*
Indiana 2nd 11.5% 6.8% Republican
Indiana 3rd 25.3% 20.6% Republican
Indiana 4th 17.7% 13.0% Republican
Indiana 5th 14.6% 9.9% Republican
Indiana 6th 21.9% 17.2% Republican
Indiana 7th -12.5% -17.2% Democrat
Indiana 8th 16.7% 12.0% Republican
Indiana 9th 6.8% 2.1% Republican
Iowa 1st 4.0% -0.7% Democrat
Iowa 2nd -4.0% -8.7% Democrat
Iowa 3rd 7.4% 2.7% Republican
Iowa 4th 11.0% 6.3% Republican
Kansas 1st No Democrat Not Applicable Republican*
Kansas 2nd 14.9% 10.2% Republican
Kansas 3rd 5.4% 0.7% Republican
Kansas 4th 17.0% 12.3% Republican
Kentucky 1st 23.0% 18.3% Republican
Kentucky 2nd No Democrat Not Applicable Republican*
Kentucky 3rd -13.4% -18.1% Democrat
Kentucky 4th 21.0% 16.3% Republican
Kentucky 5th No Democrat Not Applicable Republican*
Kentucky 6th 11.0% 6.3% Republican
Louisiana 1st 35.2% 30.5% Republican
Louisiana 2nd No Republican Not Applicable Democrat*
Louisiana 3rd No Democrat Not Applicable Republican*
Louisiana 4th 15.0% 10.3% Republican
Louisiana 5th No Democrat Not Applicable Republican*
Louisiana 6th 30.8% 26.1% Republican
Maine 1st -8.0% -12.7% Democrat
Maine 2nd 5.0% 0.3% Republican
Maryland 1st 19.8% 15.1% Republican
Maryland 2nd -15.3% -20.0% Democrat
Maryland 3rd -14.9% -19.6% Democrat
Maryland 4th -27.1% -31.8% Democrat
Maryland 5th -20.1% -24.8% Democrat
Maryland 6th -8.3% -13.0% Democrat
Maryland 7th -27.3% -32.0% Democrat
Maryland 8th -14.2% -18.9% Democrat
Massachusetts 1st No Republican No Republican Democrat
Massachusetts 2nd No Republican Not Applicable Democrat*
Massachusetts 3rd -19.0% -23.7% Democrat
Massachusetts 4th -20.0% No Republican Democrat
Massachusetts 5th No Republican Not Applicable Democrat*
Massachusetts 6th No Republican Not Applicable Democrat*
Massachusetts 7th No Republican No Republican Democrat
Massachusetts 8th -22.3% No Republican Democrat
Massachusetts 9th -12.2% -16.9% Democrat
Michigan 1st 7.9% 3.2% Republican
Michigan 2nd 15.6% 10.9% Republican
Michigan 3rd 11.2% 6.5% Republican
Michigan 4th 16.0% 11.3% Republican
Michigan 5th -13.5% -18.2% Democrat
Michigan 6th 12.1% 7.4% Republican
Michigan 7th 7.9% 3.2% Republican
Michigan 8th 8.9% 4.2% Republican
Michigan 9th -11.1% -15.8% Democrat
Michigan 10th 16.3% 11.6% Republican
Michigan 11th 7.0% 2.3% Republican
Michigan 12th -18.8% -23.5% Democrat
Michigan 13th -32.8% No Republican Democrat
Michigan 14th -30.6% -35.3% Democrat
Minnesota 1st 0.0% -4.7% Democrat
Minnesota 2nd 1.1% -3.6% Democrat
Minnesota 3rd 7.0% 2.3% Republican
Minnesota 4th -13.0% -17.7% Democrat
Minnesota 5th -25.8% -30.5% Democrat
Minnesota 6th 16.0% 11.3% Republican
Minnesota 7th -2.5% -7.2% Democrat
Minnesota 8th 0.0% -4.7% Democrat
Mississippi 1st 21.1% 16.4% Republican
Mississippi 2nd -19.8% No Republican Democrat
Mississippi 3rd 18.8% 14.1% Republican
Mississippi 4th 19.9% 15.2% Republican
Missouri 1st -29.2% -33.9% Democrat
Missouri 2nd 10.8% 6.1% Republican
Missouri 3rd 20.8% 16.1% Republican
Missouri 4th 20.8% 16.1% Republican
Missouri 5th -10.8% -15.5% Democrat
Missouri 6th 20.8% 16.1% Republican
Missouri 7th 21.6% 16.9% Republican
Missouri 8th 26.3% 21.6% Republican
Montana at large 7.7% 3.0% Republican
Nebraska 1st 19.3% 14.6% Republican
Nebraska 2nd 0.5% -4.2% Democrat
Nebraska 3rd No Democrat Not Applicable Republican*
Nevada 1st -18.1% -22.8% Democrat
Nevada 2nd 11.1% 6.4% Republican
Nevada 3rd -0.5% -5.2% Democrat
Nevada 4th -2.1% -6.8% Democrat
New Hampshire 1st -0.6% -5.3% Democrat
New Hampshire 2nd -2.6% -7.3% Democrat
New Jersey 1st -11.9% -16.6% Democrat
New Jersey 2nd 11.5% 6.8% Republican
New Jersey 3rd 10.2% 5.5% Republican
New Jersey 4th 15.3% 10.6% Republican
New Jersey 5th -2.0% -6.7% Democrat
New Jersey 6th -14.6% -19.3% Democrat
New Jersey 7th 5.7% 1.0% Republican
New Jersey 8th -30.2% -34.9% Democrat
New Jersey 9th -21.4% -26.1% Democrat
New Jersey 10th -37.8% -42.5% Democrat
New Jersey 11th 9.8% 5.1% Republican
New Jersey 12th -16.3% -21.0% Democrat
New Mexico 1st -15.0% -19.7% Democrat
New Mexico 2nd 13.0% 8.3% Republican
New Mexico 3rd -12.0% -16.7% Democrat
New York 1st 8.0% 3.3% Republican
New York 2nd 12.0% 7.3% Republican
New York 3rd -3.0% -7.7% Democrat
New York 4th -10.0% -14.7% Democrat
New York 5th -36.9% No Republican Democrat
New York 6th -22.7% No Republican Democrat
New York 7th -41.0% -45.7% Democrat
New York 8th No Republican Not Applicable Democrat*
New York 9th No Republican Not Applicable Democrat*
New York 10th -28.0% -32.7% Democrat
New York 11th 12.6% 7.9% Republican
New York 12th -33.0% -37.7% Democrat
New York 13th -42.7% -47.4% Democrat
New York 14th -33.0% -37.7% Democrat
New York 15th -46.0% -50.7% Democrat
New York 16th No Republican No Republican Democrat
New York 17th No Republican No Republican Democrat
New York 18th -6.0% -10.7% Democrat
New York 19th 4.0% -0.7% Democrat
New York 20th -18.0% -22.7% Democrat
New York 21st 18.4% 13.7% Republican
New York 22nd 3.4% -1.3% Democrat
New York 23rd 8.0% 3.3% Republican
New York 24th 11.0% 6.3% Republican
New York 25th -6.0% -10.7% Democrat
New York 26th -25.0% -29.7% Democrat
New York 27th 17.0% 12.3% Republican
North Carolina 1st -20.4% -25.1% Democrat
North Carolina 2nd 7.0% 2.3% Republican
North Carolina 3rd 17.0% No Democrat Republican
North Carolina 4th -18.0% -22.7% Democrat
North Carolina 5th 8.0% 3.3% Republican
North Carolina 6th 9.0% 4.3% Republican
North Carolina 7th 11.0% 6.3% Republican
North Carolina 8th 9.0% 4.3% Republican
North Carolina 9th 8.0% 3.3% Republican
North Carolina 10th 13.0% 8.3% Republican
North Carolina 11th 14.0% 9.3% Republican
North Carolina 12th -17.0% -21.7% Democrat
North Carolina 13th 6.0% 1.3% Republican
North Dakota at large 24.2% 19.5% Republican
Ohio 1st 9.0% 4.3% Republican
Ohio 2nd 16.0% 11.3% Republican
Ohio 3rd -19.0% -23.7% Democrat
Ohio 4th 18.0% 13.3% Republican
Ohio 5th 21.0% 16.3% Republican
Ohio 6th 21.0% 16.3% Republican
Ohio 7th 18.8% 14.1% Republican
Ohio 8th 21.9% 17.2% Republican
Ohio 9th -19.0% -23.7% Democrat
Ohio 10th 16.0% 11.3% Republican
Ohio 11th -30.0% -34.7% Democrat
Ohio 12th 19.1% 14.4% Republican
Ohio 13th -18.0% -22.7% Democrat
Ohio 14th 13.0% 8.3% Republican
Ohio 15th 16.0% 11.3% Republican
Ohio 16th 15.0% 10.3% Republican
Oklahoma 1st No Democrat Not Applicable Republican*
Oklahoma 2nd 25.5% 20.8% Republican
Oklahoma 3rd 28.0% 23.3% Republican
Oklahoma 4th 22.9% 18.2% Republican
Oklahoma 5th 10.6% 5.9% Republican
Oregon 1st -11.9% -16.6% Democrat
Oregon 2nd 22.0% 17.3% Republican
Oregon 3rd No Republican No Republican Democrat
Oregon 4th -8.3% -13.0% Democrat
Oregon 5th -5.7% -10.4% Democrat
Pennsylvania 1st -32.0% -36.7% Democrat
Pennsylvania 2nd -40.0% -44.7% Democrat
Pennsylvania 3rd No Democrat Not Applicable Republican*
Pennsylvania 4th 16.0% 11.3% Republican
Pennsylvania 5th 17.0% 12.3% Republican
Pennsylvania 6th 7.0% 2.3% Republican
Pennsylvania 7th 9.4% 4.7% Republican
Pennsylvania 8th 4.0% -0.7% Democrat
Pennsylvania 9th 13.0% 8.3% Republican
Pennsylvania 10th 20.0% 15.3% Republican
Pennsylvania 11th 14.0% 9.3% Republican
Pennsylvania 12th 12.0% 7.3% Republican
Pennsylvania 13th No Republican Not Applicable Democrat*
Pennsylvania 14th -24.0% -28.7% Democrat
Pennsylvania 15th 10.4% 5.7% Republican
Pennsylvania 16th 5.7% 1.0% Republican
Pennsylvania 17th -4.0% -8.7% Democrat
Pennsylvania 18th No Democrat No Republican Republican
Rhode Island 1st -15.0% -19.7% Democrat
Rhode Island 2nd -15.2% -19.9% Democrat
South Carolina 1st 11.5% 6.8% Republican
South Carolina 2nd 12.5% 7.8% Republican
South Carolina 3rd 23.0% 18.3% Republican
South Carolina 4th 18.4% 13.7% Republican
South Carolina 5th 10.2% 5.5% Republican
South Carolina 6th -21.4% -26.1% Democrat
South Carolina 7th 11.0% 6.3% Republican
South Dakota at large 14.0% 9.3% Republican
Tennessee 1st 33.9% 29.2% Republican
Tennessee 2nd 26.0% 21.3% Republican
Tennessee 3rd 19.5% 14.8% Republican
Tennessee 4th 15.0% 10.3% Republican
Tennessee 5th -13.0% -17.7% Democrat
Tennessee 6th 26.3% 21.6% Republican
Tennessee 7th 25.0% 20.3% Republican
Tennessee 8th 23.4% 18.7% Republican
Tennessee 9th -30.6% -35.3% Democrat
Texas 1st 25.5% 20.8% Republican
Texas 2nd 12.9% 8.2% Republican
Texas 3rd 13.5% 8.8% Republican
Texas 4th No Democrat Not Applicable Republican*
Texas 5th No Democrat Not Applicable Republican*
Texas 6th 9.8% 5.1% Republican
Texas 7th 6.0% 1.3% Republican
Texas 8th No Democrat Not Applicable Republican*
Texas 9th -31.0% No Republican Democrat
Texas 10th 10.0% 5.3% Republican
Texas 11th No Democrat Not Applicable Republican*
Texas 12th 21.9% 17.2% Republican
Texas 13th No Democrat Not Applicable Republican*
Texas 14th 12.0% 7.3% Republican
Texas 15th -10.0% -14.7% Democrat
Texas 16th No Republican Not Applicable Democrat*
Texas 17th 13.5% 8.8% Republican
Texas 18th -25.5% -30.2% Democrat
Texas 19th No Democrat Not Applicable Republican*
Texas 20th No Republican No Republican Democrat
Texas 21st 11.3% 6.6% Republican
Texas 22nd 9.4% 4.7% Republican
Texas 23rd 0.5% -4.2% Democrat
Texas 24th 8.9% 4.2% Republican
Texas 25th 10.4% 5.7% Republican
Texas 26th 18.8% 14.1% Republican
Texas 27th 12.0% 7.3% Republican
Texas 28th -18.0% No Republican Democrat
Texas 29th -25.3% -30.0% Democrat
Texas 30th -30.4% No Republican Democrat
Texas 31st  11.1% 6.4% Republican
Texas 32nd No Democrat Not Applicable Republican*
Texas 33rd -24.0% -28.7% Democrat
Texas 34th -13.0% -17.7% Democrat
Texas 35th -16.3% -21.0% Democrat
Texas 36th No Democrat Not Applicable Republican*
Utah 1st 21.7% 17.0% Republican
Utah 2nd 14.6% 9.9% Republican
Utah 3rd 23.3% 18.6% Republican
Utah 4th 6.8% 2.1% Republican
Vermont at large No Republican Not Applicable Democrat*
Virginia 1st 11.9% 7.2% Republican
Virginia 2nd 11.4% 6.7% Republican
Virginia 3rd -17.0% No Republican Democrat
Virginia 4th -8.0% -12.7% Democrat
Virginia 5th 8.0% 3.3% Republican
Virginia 6th 17.0% 12.3% Republican
Virginia 7th 8.0% 3.3% Republican
Virginia 8th -21.9% -26.6% Democrat
Virginia 9th 21.1% 16.4% Republican
Virginia 10th 3.0% -1.7% Democrat
Virginia 11th No Republican Not Applicable Democrat*
Washington 1st -5.0% -9.7% Democrat
Washington 2nd -14.0% No Republican Democrat
Washington 3rd 12.0% 7.3% Republican
Washington 4th No Democrat Not Applicable Republican*
Washington 5th 10.0% 5.3% Republican
Washington 6th -11.4% -16.1% Democrat
Washington 7th No Republican Not Applicable Democrat*
Washington 8th 10.0% 5.3% Republican
Washington 9th -23.0% No Republican Democrat
Washington 10th -9.0% -13.7% Democrat
West Virginia 1st 19.0% 14.3% Republican
West Virginia 2nd 8.0% 3.3% Republican
West Virginia 3rd 23.9% 19.2% Republican
Wisconsin 1st 18.4% 13.7% Republican
Wisconsin 2nd -19.0% No Republican Democrat
Wisconsin 3rd No Republican Not Applicable Democrat*
Wisconsin 4th No Republican Not Applicable Democrat*
Wisconsin 5th 19.8% 15.1% Republican
Wisconsin 6th 10.6% 5.9% Republican
Wisconsin 7th 12.0% 7.3% Republican
Wisconsin 8th 13.0% 8.3% Republican
Wyoming at large 17.4% 12.7% Republican

If the polled swing is uniform across the US, this will result in Republicans retaining controll of the house with 229 seats: a reduction from the 241 at the last election but still a majority over the Democrats' 2006. Obviously applying such generalised statistics to a large and diverse population is highly problematic, but as will become apparent the availible data is generally less than ideal. Results marked with an * are implied by the lack of contest in 2016.

State-wide data is hard to come by, and highly inacurate due to the prevalence of gerrymandering in the US. However many seats considered to be key to this election have had polling conducted in the last month. Below are the latest results for the 71 seats given this special focus.

District Republican Support 2016 Most Recent Poll Rep Dem Poll Date
Alaska at large 8.6% -0.5% 48% 49% Nov 2nd
Arizona 2nd 7.0% -6.2% 39% 50% Oct 4th
Arkansas 2nd 11.1% 6.5% 52% 40% Oct 21st
California 10th 2.0% -1.1% 45% 47% Oct 26th
California 22nd 18.0% 4.1% 53% 45% Oct 5th
California 25th 3.0% 2.2% 48% 44% Oct 29th
California 39th 7.0% -0.5% 46% 47% Oct 25th
California 45th 9.0% 1.1% 48% 46% Nov 3rd
California 48th 8.0% 1.0% 50% 48% Oct 23rd
California 49th 0.0% -3.7% 44% 51% Nov 2nd
California 50th 13.4% 1.6% 48% 45% Oct 30th
Colorado 6th 4.3% -5.3% 38% 47% Oct 18th
Florida 15th 7.4% 0.0% 43% 43% Oct 20th
Florida 16th 10.0% 5.3% 52% 42% Oct 9th
Florida 26th 6.4% -0.6% 44% 45% Oct 25th
Florida 27th 5.0% -4.3% 37% 44% Oct 22nd
Georgia 6th 12.0% 2.1% 49% 45% Oct 23rd
Georgia 7th 10.0% 3.3% 49% 43% Oct 22nd
Illinois 6th 9.0% -1.1% 44% 46% Oct 27th
Illinois 12th 7.4% 5.2% 48% 39% Oct 23rd
Illinois 13th 10.0% 2.9% 46% 41% Oct 26th
Illinois 14th 9.0% 2.2% 47% 43% Oct 9th
Iowa 1st 4.0% -4.1% 39% 46% Nov 2nd (NY Times)
Iowa 2nd -4.0% -7.0% 40% 53% Nov 2nd
Iowa 3rd 7.4% -0.5% 45% 46% Nov 2nd
Iowa 4th 11.0% 4.8% 51% 42% Nov 2nd
Kansas 2nd 14.9% -2.6% 37% 41% Oct 31st
Kansas 3rd 5.4% -6.1% 43% 55% Oct 30th
Maine 2nd 5.0% -0.5% 46% 47% Oct 31st
Michigan 8th 8.9% 1.6% 48% 45% Oct 19th
Michigan 11th 7.0% 0.0% 48% 48% Oct 19th
Minnesota 1st 0.0% -1.1% 45% 47% Oct 24th
Minnesota 2nd 1.1% -6.7% 39% 51% Oct 4th
Minnesota 8th 0.0% 9.0% 49% 34% Oct 15th
Montana at large 7.7% 0.0% 48% 48% Oct 30th
Nevada 3rd -0.5% -1.3% 39% 41% Oct 15th
Nevada 4th -2.1% -1.4% 34% 36% Oct 15th
New Hampshire 1st -0.6% -1.1% 46% 48% Oct 31st
New Hampshire 2nd -2.6% -6.5% 40% 52% Oct 31st
New Jersey 2nd 11.5% -9.1% 38% 55% Oct 25th
New Jersey 3rd 10.2% 0.6% 45% 44% Oct 26th
New Jersey 7th 5.7% -4.7% 39% 47% Nov 1st
New Jersey 11th 9.8% -6.3% 38% 49% Oct 19th
New Mexico 1st -15.0% -4.3% 43% 51% Nov 1st
New Mexico 2nd 13.0% 2.8% 47% 42% Nov 1st
New York 1st 8.0% 4.4% 49% 41% Oct 9th
New York 11th 12.6% 2.4% 44% 40% Oct 28th
New York 19th 4.0% -2.7% 44% 49% Oct 30th
New York 22nd 3.4% -0.5% 45% 46% Oct 24th
New York 24th 11.0% 7.6% 53% 39% Oct 28th
New York 27th 17.0% 4.2% 45% 38% Nov 2nd
North Carolina 2nd 7.0% 5.1% 49% 40% Oct 30th
North Carolina 9th 8.0% 0.6% 45% 44% Oct 31st
North Carolina 13th 6.0% 1.8% 44% 41% Oct 15th
Ohio 1st 9.0% 4.9% 50% 41% Oct 26th
Pennsylvania 1st -32.0% 0.5% 47% 46% Oct 30th
Pennsylvania 7th 9.4% -3.3% 42% 48% Oct 19th
Pennsylvania 8th 4.0% -6.5% 40% 52% Oct 20th
Pennsylvania 10th 20.0% 1.6% 49% 46% Oct 30th
Pennsylvania 16th 5.7% -2.0% 47% 51% Oct 31st
Pennsylvania 17th -4.0% -6.3% 42% 54% Oct 10th
Texas 7th 6.0% 0.5% 46% 45% Oct 26th
Texas 23rd 0.5% 8.2% 53% 38% Oct 19th
Utah 4th 6.8% -3.8% 43% 50% Oct 30th
Virginia 2nd 11.4% 1.7% 45% 42% Oct 23rd
Virginia 5th 8.0% -0.5% 45% 46% Oct 23rd
Virginia 7th 8.0% -0.5% 45% 46% Oct 29th
Virginia 10th 3.0% -5.7% 43% 54% Nov 2nd
Washington 3rd 12.0% 3.9% 48% 41% Oct 21st
Washington 8th 10.0% 5.7% 49% 39% Oct 11th
West Virginia 3rd 23.9% 3.6% 52% 45% Nov 1st

Additionally, certain key seats have been assessed as being safe, likely, leaning or tilting to one party or another. The median rating of such seats from numerous sources is given here:


District Median Rating
Alaska at large Lean Republican
Arizona 1st Lean Democrat
Arizona 2nd Lean Democrat
Arizona 6th Likely Republican
Arizona 8th Likely Republican
Arizona 9th Safe Democrat
Arkansas 2nd Lean Republican
California 1st Safe Republican
California 3rd Likely Republican
California 7th Likely Democrat
California 10th Tossup
California 16th Safe Democrat
California 21st Likely Republican
California 22nd Likely Republican
California 24th Safe Democrat
California 25th Tossup
California 39th Tossup
California 45th Tossup
California 48th Tossup
California 49th Lean Democrat
California 50th Lean Republican
Colorado 3rd Likely Republican
Colorado 6th Lean Democrat
Connecticut 5th Safe Democrat
Florida 6th Lean Republican
Florida 7th Likely Democrat
Florida 13th Safe Democrat
Florida 15th Lean Republican
Florida 16th Likely Republican
Florida 18th Lean Republican
Florida 25th Likely Republican
Florida 26th Tossup
Florida 27th Lean Democrat
Georgia 6th Lean Republican
Georgia 7th Lean Republican
Illinois 6th Tossup
Illinois 12th Lean Republican
Illinois 13th Lean Republican
Illinois 14th Lean Republican
Illinois 17th Safe Democrat
Indiana 2nd Likely Republican
Indiana 9th Likely Republican
Iowa 1st Lean Democrat
Iowa 2nd Safe Democrat
Iowa 3rd Tossup
Iowa 4th Likely Republican
Kansas 2nd Tossup
Kansas 3rd Lean Democrat
Kansas 4th Safe Republican
Kentucky 6th Tossup
Maine 2nd Tossup
Maryland 6th Safe Democrat
Massachusetts 9th Safe Democrat
Michigan 1st Likely Republican
Michigan 2nd Safe Republican
Michigan 3rd Safe Republican
Michigan 4th No Data
Michigan 5th Safe Democrat
Michigan 6th Lean Republican
Michigan 7th Likely Republican
Michigan 8th Tossup
Michigan 11th Lean Democrat
Minnesota 1st Tossup
Minnesota 2nd Lean Democrat
Minnesota 3rd Lean Democrat
Minnesota 7th Likely Democrat
Minnesota 8th Lean Republican
Missouri 2nd Likely Republican
Montana at large Lean Republican
Nebraska 2nd Lean Republican
Nevada 2nd Safe Republican
Nevada 3rd Lean Democrat
Nevada 4th Lean Democrat
New Hampshire 1st Lean Democrat
New Hampshire 2nd Safe Democrat
New Jersey 2nd Likely Democrat
New Jersey 3rd Tossup
New Jersey 4th Safe Republican
New Jersey 5th Likely Democrat
New Jersey 7th Tossup
New Jersey 11th Lean Democrat
New Mexico 1st Safe Democrat
New Mexico 2nd Tossup
New York 1st Likely Republican
New York 2nd Likely Republican
New York 3rd Safe Democrat
New York 11th Lean Republican
New York 18th Safe Democrat
New York 19th Tossup
New York 21st Likely Republican
New York 22nd Tossup
New York 23rd Likely Republican
New York 24th Lean Republican
New York 27th Lean Republican
North Carolina 2nd Lean Republican
North Carolina 6th Safe Republican
North Carolina 7th Safe Republican
North Carolina 8th Likely Republican
North Carolina 9th Tossup
North Carolina 13th Lean Republican
Ohio 1st Lean Republican
Ohio 7th Likely Republican
Ohio 10th Likely Republican
Ohio 12th Lean Republican
Ohio 14th Likely Republican
Ohio 15th Safe Republican
Ohio 16th Safe Republican
Oklahoma 5th Likely Republican
Oregon 2nd Safe Republican
Oregon 5th Safe Democrat
Pennsylvania 1st Tossup
Pennsylvania 5th Likely Democrat
Pennsylvania 6th Likely Democrat
Pennsylvania 7th Lean Democrat
Pennsylvania 8th Likely Democrat
Pennsylvania 10th Lean Republican
Pennsylvania 11th Safe Republican
Pennsylvania 14th Safe Republican
Pennsylvania 16th Lean Republican
Pennsylvania 17th Likely Democrat
South Carolina 1st Likely Republican
Texas 2nd Likely Republican
Texas 3rd Safe Republican
Texas 6th Safe Republican
Texas 10th Safe Republican
Texas 21st Likely Republican
Texas 22nd Likely Republican
Texas 23rd Lean Republican
Texas 24th Safe Republican
Texas 25th Safe Republican
Texas 31st  Likely Republican
Texas 32nd Tossup
Utah 4th Tossup
Virginia 2nd Tossup
Virginia 5th Lean Republican
Virginia 7th Tossup
Virginia 10th Lean Democrat
Washington 3rd Lean Republican
Washington 5th Lean Republican
Washington 8th Tossup
West Virginia 2nd Safe Republican
West Virginia 3rd Lean Republican
Wisconsin 1st Lean Republican
Wisconsin 3rd Safe Democrat
Wisconsin 6th Likely Republican
Wisconsin 8th Safe Republican

Normally I would not relly on this kind of second-hand data, but the shortage of reliable, broadly-applicable information in these cases is chronic. There are large gaps in these data sets. No useful data at all exists for Alabama, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, both Dakotas, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Vermont or Wyoming. Instead, the best we can do is stitch together the information we have, erroneous and incomplete as it may be, and accept the resulting predictions will come with several siginifcant caveats. It is foolish to insist on strict scientific accuracy in these situations, so my methods are as rough and ready as the data itself:

First, districts where one major party is not contesting are awarded to the other. Second, district broadly accepted as safe by are awarded accordingly. Third, any district with polling in excess of a 2% margin is given to the leading party. Fourth, any district with a median rating of likely is filled in as such to round out the likely results. Beyond this point things get very sketchy. Any district with no contradictory data (including predicted incumbent from the 4.7% swing, recent polling and third-party assessment) is granted to the party indicated. After that, any median lean or tilt at all is conceeded, and after that, to split any remaining tossups, polling is accepted even if its well within any margin of error.

The resulting Frankenstein's monster of a prediction that results is as follows:


District Incumbent Prediction
Alabama 1st Republican Republican
Alabama 2nd Republican Republican
Alabama 3rd Republican Republican
Alabama 4th Republican Republican
Alabama 5th Republican Republican
Alabama 6th Republican Republican
Alabama 7th Democrat Democrat
Alaska at large Republican Republican
Arizona 1st Democrat Democrat
Arizona 2nd Republican Democrat
Arizona 3rd Democrat Democrat
Arizona 4th Republican Republican
Arizona 5th Republican Republican
Arizona 6th Republican Republican
Arizona 7th Democrat Democrat
Arizona 8th Republican Republican
Arizona 9th Democrat Democrat
Arkansas 1st Republican Republican
Arkansas 2nd Republican Republican
Arkansas 3rd Republican Republican
Arkansas 4th Republican Republican
California 1st Republican Republican
California 2nd Democrat Democrat
California 3rd Democrat Republican
California 4th Republican Republican
California 5th Democrat Democrat
California 6th Democrat Democrat
California 7th Democrat Democrat
California 8th Republican Republican
California 9th Democrat Democrat
California 10th Republican Democrat
California 11th Democrat Democrat
California 12th Democrat Democrat
California 13th Democrat Democrat
California 14th Democrat Democrat
California 15th Democrat Democrat
California 16th Democrat Democrat
California 17th Democrat Democrat
California 18th Democrat Democrat
California 19th Democrat Democrat
California 20th Democrat Democrat
California 21st Republican Republican
California 22nd Republican Republican
California 23rd Republican Republican
California 24th Democrat Democrat
California 25th Republican Republican
California 26th Democrat Democrat
California 27th Democrat Democrat
California 28th Democrat Democrat
California 29th Democrat Democrat
California 30th Democrat Democrat
California 31st Democrat Democrat
California 32nd Democrat Democrat
California 33rd Democrat Democrat
California 34th Democrat Democrat
California 35th Democrat Democrat
California 36th Democrat Democrat
California 37th Democrat Democrat
California 38th Democrat Democrat
California 39th Republican Democrat
California 40th Democrat Democrat
California 41st Democrat Democrat
California 42nd Republican Republican
California 43rd Democrat Democrat
California 44th Democrat Democrat
California 45th Republican Republican
California 46th Democrat Democrat
California 47th Democrat Democrat
California 48th Republican Republican
California 49th Republican Democrat
California 50th Republican Republican
California 51st Democrat Democrat
California 52nd Democrat Democrat
California 53rd Democrat Democrat
Colorado 1st Democrat Democrat
Colorado 2nd Democrat Democrat
Colorado 3rd Republican Republican
Colorado 4th Republican Republican
Colorado 5th Republican Republican
Colorado 6th Republican Democrat
Colorado 7th Democrat Democrat
Connecticut 1st Democrat Democrat
Connecticut 2nd Democrat Democrat
Connecticut 3rd Democrat Democrat
Connecticut 4th Democrat Democrat
Connecticut 5th Democrat Democrat
Delaware at large  Democrat Democrat
Florida 1st Republican Republican
Florida 2nd Republican Republican
Florida 3rd Republican Republican
Florida 4th Republican Republican
Florida 5th Democrat Democrat
Florida 6th Republican Republican
Florida 7th Democrat Democrat
Florida 8th Republican Republican
Florida 9th Democrat Democrat
Florida 10th Democrat Democrat
Florida 11th Republican Republican
Florida 12th Republican Republican
Florida 13th Democrat Democrat
Florida 14th Democrat Democrat
Florida 15th Republican Republican
Florida 16th Republican Republican
Florida 17th Republican Republican
Florida 18th Republican Republican
Florida 19th Republican Republican
Florida 20th Democrat Democrat
Florida 21st Democrat Democrat
Florida 22nd Democrat Democrat
Florida 23rd Democrat Democrat
Florida 24th Democrat Democrat
Florida 25th Republican Republican
Florida 26th Republican Democrat
Florida 27th Republican Democrat
Georgia 1st Republican Republican
Georgia 2nd Democrat Democrat
Georgia 3rd Republican Republican
Georgia 4th Democrat Democrat
Georgia 5th Democrat Democrat
Georgia 6th Republican Republican
Georgia 7th Republican Republican
Georgia 8th Republican Republican
Georgia 9th Republican Republican
Georgia 10th Republican Republican
Georgia 11th Republican Republican
Georgia 12th Republican Republican
Georgia 13th Democrat Democrat
Georgia 14th Republican Republican
Hawaii 1st Democrat Democrat
Hawaii 2nd Democrat Democrat
Idaho 1st Republican Republican
Idaho 2nd Republican Republican
Illinois 1st Democrat Democrat
Illinois 2nd Democrat Democrat
Illinois 3rd Democrat Democrat
Illinois 4th Democrat Democrat
Illinois 5th Democrat Democrat
Illinois 6th Republican Democrat
Illinois 7th Democrat Democrat
Illinois 8th Democrat Democrat
Illinois 9th Democrat Democrat
Illinois 10th Democrat Democrat
Illinois 11th Democrat Democrat
Illinois 12th Republican Republican
Illinois 13th Republican Republican
Illinois 14th Republican Republican
Illinois 15th Republican Republican
Illinois 16th Republican Republican
Illinois 17th Democrat Democrat
Illinois 18th Republican Republican
Indiana 1st Democrat Democrat
Indiana 2nd Republican Republican
Indiana 3rd Republican Republican
Indiana 4th Republican Republican
Indiana 5th Republican Republican
Indiana 6th Republican Republican
Indiana 7th Democrat Democrat
Indiana 8th Republican Republican
Indiana 9th Republican Republican
Iowa 1st Republican Democrat
Iowa 2nd Democrat Democrat
Iowa 3rd Republican Democrat
Iowa 4th Republican Republican
Kansas 1st Republican Republican
Kansas 2nd Republican Democrat
Kansas 3rd Republican Democrat
Kansas 4th Republican Republican
Kentucky 1st Republican Republican
Kentucky 2nd Republican Republican
Kentucky 3rd Democrat Democrat
Kentucky 4th Republican Republican
Kentucky 5th Republican Republican
Kentucky 6th Republican Republican
Louisiana 1st Republican Republican
Louisiana 2nd Democrat Democrat
Louisiana 3rd Republican Republican
Louisiana 4th Republican Republican
Louisiana 5th Republican Republican
Louisiana 6th Republican Republican
Maine 1st Democrat Democrat
Maine 2nd Republican Democrat
Maryland 1st Republican Republican
Maryland 2nd Democrat Democrat
Maryland 3rd Democrat Democrat
Maryland 4th Democrat Democrat
Maryland 5th Democrat Democrat
Maryland 6th Democrat Democrat
Maryland 7th Democrat Democrat
Maryland 8th Democrat Democrat
Massachusetts 1st Democrat Democrat
Massachusetts 2nd Democrat Democrat
Massachusetts 3rd Democrat Democrat
Massachusetts 4th Democrat Democrat
Massachusetts 5th Democrat Democrat
Massachusetts 6th Democrat Democrat
Massachusetts 7th Democrat Democrat
Massachusetts 8th Democrat Democrat
Massachusetts 9th Democrat Democrat
Michigan 1st Republican Republican
Michigan 2nd Republican Republican
Michigan 3rd Republican Republican
Michigan 4th Republican Republican
Michigan 5th Democrat Democrat
Michigan 6th Republican Republican
Michigan 7th Republican Republican
Michigan 8th Republican Republican
Michigan 9th Democrat Democrat
Michigan 10th Republican Republican
Michigan 11th Republican Democrat
Michigan 12th Democrat Democrat
Michigan 13th Democrat Democrat
Michigan 14th Democrat Democrat
Minnesota 1st Democrat Democrat
Minnesota 2nd Republican Democrat
Minnesota 3rd Republican Democrat
Minnesota 4th Democrat Democrat
Minnesota 5th Democrat Democrat
Minnesota 6th Republican Republican
Minnesota 7th Democrat Democrat
Minnesota 8th Democrat Republican
Mississippi 1st Republican Republican
Mississippi 2nd Democrat Democrat
Mississippi 3rd Republican Republican
Mississippi 4th Republican Republican
Missouri 1st Democrat Democrat
Missouri 2nd Republican Republican
Missouri 3rd Republican Republican
Missouri 4th Republican Republican
Missouri 5th Democrat Democrat
Missouri 6th Republican Republican
Missouri 7th Republican Republican
Missouri 8th Republican Republican
Montana at large Republican Republican
Nebraska 1st Republican Republican
Nebraska 2nd Republican Republican
Nebraska 3rd Republican Republican
Nevada 1st Democrat Democrat
Nevada 2nd Republican Republican
Nevada 3rd Democrat Democrat
Nevada 4th Democrat Democrat
New Hampshire 1st Democrat Democrat
New Hampshire 2nd Democrat Democrat
New Jersey 1st Democrat Democrat
New Jersey 2nd Republican Democrat
New Jersey 3rd Republican Republican
New Jersey 4th Republican Republican
New Jersey 5th Democrat Democrat
New Jersey 6th Democrat Democrat
New Jersey 7th Republican Democrat
New Jersey 8th Democrat Democrat
New Jersey 9th Democrat Democrat
New Jersey 10th Democrat Democrat
New Jersey 11th Republican Democrat
New Jersey 12th Democrat Democrat
New Mexico 1st Democrat Democrat
New Mexico 2nd Republican Republican
New Mexico 3rd Democrat Democrat
New York 1st Republican Republican
New York 2nd Republican Republican
New York 3rd Democrat Democrat
New York 4th Democrat Democrat
New York 5th Democrat Democrat
New York 6th Democrat Democrat
New York 7th Democrat Democrat
New York 8th Democrat Democrat
New York 9th Democrat Democrat
New York 10th Democrat Democrat
New York 11th Republican Republican
New York 12th Democrat Democrat
New York 13th Democrat Democrat
New York 14th Democrat Democrat
New York 15th Democrat Democrat
New York 16th Democrat Democrat
New York 17th Democrat Democrat
New York 18th Democrat Democrat
New York 19th Republican Democrat
New York 20th Democrat Democrat
New York 21st Republican Republican
New York 22nd Republican Democrat
New York 23rd Republican Republican
New York 24th Republican Republican
New York 25th Democrat Democrat
New York 26th Democrat Democrat
New York 27th Republican Republican
North Carolina 1st Democrat Democrat
North Carolina 2nd Republican Republican
North Carolina 3rd Republican Republican
North Carolina 4th Democrat Democrat
North Carolina 5th Republican Republican
North Carolina 6th Republican Republican
North Carolina 7th Republican Republican
North Carolina 8th Republican Republican
North Carolina 9th Republican Republican
North Carolina 10th Republican Republican
North Carolina 11th Republican Republican
North Carolina 12th Democrat Democrat
North Carolina 13th Republican Republican
North Dakota at large Republican Republican
Ohio 1st Republican Republican
Ohio 2nd Republican Republican
Ohio 3rd Democrat Democrat
Ohio 4th Republican Republican
Ohio 5th Republican Republican
Ohio 6th Republican Republican
Ohio 7th Republican Republican
Ohio 8th Republican Republican
Ohio 9th Democrat Democrat
Ohio 10th Republican Republican
Ohio 11th Democrat Democrat
Ohio 12th Republican Republican
Ohio 13th Democrat Democrat
Ohio 14th Republican Republican
Ohio 15th Republican Republican
Ohio 16th Republican Republican
Oklahoma 1st Republican Republican
Oklahoma 2nd Republican Republican
Oklahoma 3rd Republican Republican
Oklahoma 4th Republican Republican
Oklahoma 5th Republican Republican
Oregon 1st Democrat Democrat
Oregon 2nd Republican Republican
Oregon 3rd Democrat Democrat
Oregon 4th Democrat Democrat
Oregon 5th Democrat Democrat
Pennsylvania 1st Democrat Republican
Pennsylvania 2nd Democrat Democrat
Pennsylvania 3rd Republican Republican
Pennsylvania 4th Republican Republican
Pennsylvania 5th Republican Democrat
Pennsylvania 6th Republican Democrat
Pennsylvania 7th Republican Democrat
Pennsylvania 8th Republican Democrat
Pennsylvania 9th Republican Republican
Pennsylvania 10th Republican Republican
Pennsylvania 11th Republican Republican
Pennsylvania 12th Republican Republican
Pennsylvania 13th Democrat Democrat
Pennsylvania 14th Democrat Republican
Pennsylvania 15th Republican Republican
Pennsylvania 16th Republican Democrat
Pennsylvania 17th Democrat Democrat
Pennsylvania 18th Republican Democrat
Rhode Island 1st Democrat Democrat
Rhode Island 2nd Democrat Democrat
South Carolina 1st Republican Republican
South Carolina 2nd Republican Republican
South Carolina 3rd Republican Republican
South Carolina 4th Republican Republican
South Carolina 5th Republican Republican
South Carolina 6th Democrat Democrat
South Carolina 7th Republican Republican
South Dakota at large Republican Republican
Tennessee 1st Republican Republican
Tennessee 2nd Republican Republican
Tennessee 3rd Republican Republican
Tennessee 4th Republican Republican
Tennessee 5th Democrat Democrat
Tennessee 6th Republican Republican
Tennessee 7th Republican Republican
Tennessee 8th Republican Republican
Tennessee 9th Democrat Democrat
Texas 1st Republican Republican
Texas 2nd Republican Republican
Texas 3rd Republican Republican
Texas 4th Republican Republican
Texas 5th Republican Republican
Texas 6th Republican Republican
Texas 7th Republican Republican
Texas 8th Republican Republican
Texas 9th Democrat Democrat
Texas 10th Republican Republican
Texas 11th Republican Republican
Texas 12th Republican Republican
Texas 13th Republican Republican
Texas 14th Republican Republican
Texas 15th Democrat Democrat
Texas 16th Democrat Democrat
Texas 17th Republican Republican
Texas 18th Democrat Democrat
Texas 19th Republican Republican
Texas 20th Democrat Democrat
Texas 21st Republican Republican
Texas 22nd Republican Republican
Texas 23rd Republican Republican
Texas 24th Republican Republican
Texas 25th Republican Republican
Texas 26th Republican Republican
Texas 27th Republican Republican
Texas 28th Democrat Democrat
Texas 29th Democrat Democrat
Texas 30th Democrat Democrat
Texas 31st  Republican Republican
Texas 32nd Republican Republican
Texas 33rd Democrat Democrat
Texas 34th Democrat Democrat
Texas 35th Democrat Democrat
Texas 36th Republican Republican
Utah 1st Republican Republican
Utah 2nd Republican Republican
Utah 3rd Republican Republican
Utah 4th Republican Democrat
Vermont at large Democrat Democrat
Virginia 1st Republican Republican
Virginia 2nd Republican Republican
Virginia 3rd Democrat Democrat
Virginia 4th Democrat Democrat
Virginia 5th Republican Republican
Virginia 6th Republican Republican
Virginia 7th Republican Democrat
Virginia 8th Democrat Democrat
Virginia 9th Republican Republican
Virginia 10th Republican Democrat
Virginia 11th Democrat Democrat
Washington 1st Democrat Democrat
Washington 2nd Democrat Democrat
Washington 3rd Republican Republican
Washington 4th Republican Republican
Washington 5th Republican Republican
Washington 6th Democrat Democrat
Washington 7th Democrat Democrat
Washington 8th Republican Republican
Washington 9th Democrat Democrat
Washington 10th Democrat Democrat
West Virginia 1st Republican Republican
West Virginia 2nd Republican Republican
West Virginia 3rd Republican Republican
Wisconsin 1st Republican Republican
Wisconsin 2nd Democrat Democrat
Wisconsin 3rd Democrat Democrat
Wisconsin 4th Democrat Democrat
Wisconsin 5th Republican Republican
Wisconsin 6th Republican Republican
Wisconsin 7th Republican Republican
Wisconsin 8th Republican Republican
Wyoming at large Republican Republican

On these numbers the Democrats would win back the house 220:215, but that shows how tight this race will be and warns that the 'Blue Wave' may be little more than a ripple. Then again, this is a significant improvement in the Dems' chances with only partial fine-grained data. If more information was availible perhaps we would be looking at numbers in the mid 200s. While there is not impartial or mathematical way to justify this, my feeling is that the Dems will do a little better than 220, maybe somewhere in the 230s. It will not, however, be the cruching rejection of Trump-style Republicanism many are predicting.

TL;DR:

US data is very patchy and varies from state to state. As a result the prediction is a roughly-cobbled together mess that is significantly less reliable than I would wish.

What we do have predicts 220 house seats for the Democrats and 215 for the Republicans, enough to take back the house and hinder the Trump administration but not the resounding blow some on the left are wishing for.

My gut feeling is that more complete data would raise the Dem's seats into the 230s, but there is no impirical basis for this.

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