It is undoubtedly true that midterms traditionally result in substantial losses for whichever party holds the White House, especially in a president's first term. And by all measures, it certainly seems that a double-digit figure of seats in the House will be taken from the Republicans by the Democrats. However, it is important to realise that last election the Democratic Party ended up 47 seats behind the Republicans, and taking back the house is not going to be a simple matter of waiting for the inevitable.
Also, the common reasoning that underlies the 'Blue Wave' predictions is one of presidential unpopularity. It is absolutely correct that most polls have had Trump consistently underperforming recent presidents in popularity, but this doesn't show the full picture. A typically unpopular president from the Republican Party (for example) will usually see the political right unmotivated to get out and vote while the left enthusiastically casts their collective ballots against the incumbent. The identity politics employed in America by both sides, but most relevantly by conservatives, will erode this normal behaviour. Trump may be unpopular in general, but his supporters are as enthusiastic and ready as ever. It is also worth remembering that Trump was a controversial and unpopular figure in 2016 yet still came to power. The electoral college was a factor in that, to be sure, but Trump was not as soundly rebuked in the popular vote as many (including myself) had expected.
For this reason, it pays to be wary of the generalisations that underpin expectations of a Democratic landslide. Their position will likely improve dramatically this week, but I would not place any money on an overwhelming majority in the House, and that's supposed to be the easy fight.
The House
Before getting down to the numbers, a note about the methodology. Because of the two-party dominance of US politics (no doubt more than a little to blame on the first-past-the-post system employed), I have paid no attention to independents or minor parties. There are several seats, however, without a contestant from one of the major parties. Generally, these are heavily gerrymandered seats where one party realises any amount of time or effort would be wasted. There are no Republican candidates in the districts of:- Alabama 7
- Arizona 7
- California 5
- California 6
- California13
- California 20
- California 27
- California 34
- California 40
- California 44
- Florida 10
- Florida 14
- Florida 20
- Florida 21
- Florida 24
- Georgia 5
- Massachusetts 1
- Massachusetts 4
- Massachusetts 7
- Massachusetts 8
- Michigan 13
- Mississippi 2
- New York 5
- New York 6
- New York 16
- New York 17
- Oregon 3
- Pensylvania 18
- Texas 9
- Texas 20
- Texas 28
- Texas 30
- Virginia 3
- Washington 2
- Washington 9
- Wisconsin 2
- California 8
- Georgia 8
- North Carolina 3
The Numbers
Unfortunately, US data is a lot more patchy had hard to work with than in Australia, in part due to the individual states having separate rules and voting systems. For a simple starting point, I decided to try to determine a baseline value of the vote in 2016 for each state. The data I could find was complicated by the previously noted tendency of major parties not contesting certain districts and a situation where non-major-party votes were statistically evident yet ultimately irrelevant. To correct for this latter issue, results are portrayed as the lead the ultimately successful Republican party held in each seat given by:____
This equation means that in the following table, the more positive the value, the bigger the margin for the Republicans, and the further negative the greater the margin for the Democrats.
In 2016 the Republican popular vote in the house was around 50.6% of the two-party vote. In the latest polling, they reportedly recieved only 45.8% indicating a swing of 4.7 percentage points to the Democrats.
| District | Republican Support 2016 | Republican Support -4.7% | Result |
| Alabama 1st | No Democrat | Not Applicable | Republican* |
| Alabama 2nd | 5.0% | 0.3% | Republican |
| Alabama 3rd | 17.0% | 12.3% | Republican |
| Alabama 4th | No Democrat | Not Applicable | Republican* |
| Alabama 5th | 17.0% | 12.3% | Republican |
| Alabama 6th | 25.0% | 20.3% | Republican |
| Alabama 7th | No Republican | No Republican | Democrat |
| Alaska at large | 8.6% | 3.9% | Republican |
| Arizona 1st | -4.3% | -9.0% | Democrat |
| Arizona 2nd | 7.0% | 2.3% | Republican |
| Arizona 3rd | No Republican | Not Applicable | Democrat* |
| Arizona 4th | 21.3% | 16.6% | Republican |
| Arizona 5th | 14.0% | 9.3% | Republican |
| Arizona 6th | 12.0% | 7.3% | Republican |
| Arizona 7th | -25.0% | No Republican | Democrat |
| Arizona 8th | No Democrat | Not Applicable | Republican* |
| Arizona 9th | -11.0% | -15.7% | Democrat |
| Arkansas 1st | No Democrat | Not Applicable | Republican* |
| Arkansas 2nd | 11.1% | 6.4% | Republican |
| Arkansas 3rd | No Democrat | Not Applicable | Republican* |
| Arkansas 4th | No Democrat | Not Applicable | Republican* |
| California 1st | 9.0% | 4.3% | Republican |
| California 2nd | -27.0% | -31.7% | Democrat |
| California 3rd | -9.0% | -13.7% | Democrat |
| California 4th | 13.0% | 8.3% | Republican |
| California 5th | -27.0% | No Republican | Democrat |
| California 6th | -25.0% | No Republican | Democrat |
| California 7th | -1.0% | -5.7% | Democrat |
| California 8th | 12.0% | No Democrat | Republican |
| California 9th | -7.0% | -11.7% | Democrat |
| California 10th | 2.0% | -2.7% | Democrat |
| California 11th | -22.0% | -26.7% | Democrat |
| California 12th | No Republican | Not Applicable | Democrat* |
| California 13th | -41.0% | No Republican | Democrat |
| California 14th | -31.0% | -35.7% | Democrat |
| California 15th | -24.0% | -28.7% | Democrat |
| California 16th | -8.0% | -12.7% | Democrat |
| California 17th | No Republican | Not Applicable | Democrat* |
| California 18th | -21.0% | -25.7% | Democrat |
| California 19th | -24.0% | -28.7% | Democrat |
| California 20th | -21.0% | No Republican | Democrat |
| California 21st | 7.0% | 2.3% | Republican |
| California 22nd | 18.0% | 13.3% | Republican |
| California 23rd | 19.0% | 14.3% | Republican |
| California 24th | -3.0% | -7.7% | Democrat |
| California 25th | 3.0% | -1.7% | Democrat |
| California 26th | -10.0% | -14.7% | Democrat |
| California 27th | -17.0% | No Republican | Democrat |
| California 28th | -28.0% | -32.7% | Democrat |
| California 29th | No Republican | Not Applicable | Democrat* |
| California 30th | -23.0% | -27.7% | Democrat |
| California 31st | -6.0% | -10.7% | Democrat |
| California 32nd | No Republican | Not Applicable | Democrat* |
| California 33rd | -16.0% | -20.7% | Democrat |
| California 34th | No Republican | No Republican | Democrat |
| California 35th | -22.0% | -26.7% | Democrat |
| California 36th | -12.0% | -16.7% | Democrat |
| California 37th | No Republican | Not Applicable | Democrat* |
| California 38th | -20.3% | -25.0% | Democrat |
| California 39th | 7.0% | 2.3% | Republican |
| California 40th | No Republican | No Republican | Democrat |
| California 41st | -15.0% | -19.7% | Democrat |
| California 42nd | 9.0% | 4.3% | Republican |
| California 43rd | -26.0% | -30.7% | Democrat |
| California 44th | No Republican | No Republican | Democrat |
| California 45th | 9.0% | 4.3% | Republican |
| California 46th | No Republican | Not Applicable | Democrat* |
| California 47th | -14.0% | -18.7% | Democrat |
| California 48th | 8.0% | 3.3% | Republican |
| California 49th | 0.0% | -4.7% | Democrat |
| California 50th | 13.4% | 8.7% | Republican |
| California 51st | -23.0% | -27.7% | Democrat |
| California 52nd | -6.4% | -11.1% | Democrat |
| California 53rd | -17.0% | -21.7% | Democrat |
| Colorado 1st | -20.8% | -25.5% | Democrat |
| Colorado 2nd | -10.6% | -15.3% | Democrat |
| Colorado 3rd | 7.9% | 3.2% | Republican |
| Colorado 4th | 16.7% | 12.0% | Republican |
| Colorado 5th | 16.7% | 12.0% | Republican |
| Colorado 6th | 4.3% | -0.4% | Democrat |
| Colorado 7th | -7.9% | -12.6% | Democrat |
| Connecticut 1st | -15.3% | -20.0% | Democrat |
| Connecticut 2nd | -14.9% | -19.6% | Democrat |
| Connecticut 3rd | -19.0% | -23.7% | Democrat |
| Connecticut 4th | -10.0% | -14.7% | Democrat |
| Connecticut 5th | -8.0% | -12.7% | Democrat |
| Delaware at large | -7.7% | -12.4% | Democrat |
| Florida 1st | 19.0% | 14.3% | Republican |
| Florida 2nd | 19.1% | 14.4% | Republican |
| Florida 3rd | 8.8% | 4.1% | Republican |
| Florida 4th | 21.4% | 16.7% | Republican |
| Florida 5th | -14.0% | -18.7% | Democrat |
| Florida 6th | 9.0% | 4.3% | Republican |
| Florida 7th | -1.5% | -6.2% | Democrat |
| Florida 8th | 15.6% | 10.9% | Republican |
| Florida 9th | -7.4% | -12.1% | Democrat |
| Florida 10th | -15.0% | No Republican | Democrat |
| Florida 11th | 17.0% | 12.3% | Republican |
| Florida 12th | 19.0% | 14.3% | Republican |
| Florida 13th | -2.0% | -6.7% | Democrat |
| Florida 14th | -12.0% | No Republican | Democrat |
| Florida 15th | 7.4% | 2.7% | Republican |
| Florida 16th | 10.0% | 5.3% | Republican |
| Florida 17th | 14.6% | 9.9% | Republican |
| Florida 18th | 5.7% | 1.0% | Republican |
| Florida 19th | 16.0% | 11.3% | Republican |
| Florida 20th | -30.0% | No Republican | Democrat |
| Florida 21st | -14.3% | No Republican | Democrat |
| Florida 22nd | -9.0% | -13.7% | Democrat |
| Florida 23rd | -8.2% | -12.9% | Democrat |
| Florida 24th | No Republican | No Republican | Democrat |
| Florida 25th | 12.0% | 7.3% | Republican |
| Florida 26th | 6.4% | 1.7% | Republican |
| Florida 27th | 5.0% | 0.3% | Republican |
| Georgia 1st | No Democrat | Not Applicable | Republican* |
| Georgia 2nd | -11.0% | -15.7% | Democrat |
| Georgia 3rd | 18.0% | 13.3% | Republican |
| Georgia 4th | -26.0% | -30.7% | Democrat |
| Georgia 5th | -34.0% | No Republican | Democrat |
| Georgia 6th | 12.0% | 7.3% | Republican |
| Georgia 7th | 10.0% | 5.3% | Republican |
| Georgia 8th | 18.0% | No Democrat | Republican |
| Georgia 9th | No Democrat | Not Applicable | Republican* |
| Georgia 10th | No Democrat | Not Applicable | Republican* |
| Georgia 11th | 17.0% | 12.3% | Republican |
| Georgia 12th | 12.0% | 7.3% | Republican |
| Georgia 13th | No Republican | Not Applicable | Democrat* |
| Georgia 14th | No Democrat | Not Applicable | Republican* |
| Hawaii 1st | -25.8% | -30.5% | Democrat |
| Hawaii 2nd | -31.0% | -35.7% | Democrat |
| Idaho 1st | 18.0% | 13.3% | Republican |
| Idaho 2nd | 18.5% | 13.8% | Republican |
| Illinois 1st | -24.0% | -28.7% | Democrat |
| Illinois 2nd | -30.0% | -34.7% | Democrat |
| Illinois 3rd | No Republican | Not Applicable | Democrat* |
| Illinois 4th | No Republican | Not Applicable | Democrat* |
| Illinois 5th | -20.8% | -25.5% | Democrat |
| Illinois 6th | 9.0% | 4.3% | Republican |
| Illinois 7th | -34.0% | -38.7% | Democrat |
| Illinois 8th | -8.0% | -12.7% | Democrat |
| Illinois 9th | -16.3% | -21.0% | Democrat |
| Illinois 10th | -3.0% | -7.7% | Democrat |
| Illinois 11th | -10.0% | -14.7% | Democrat |
| Illinois 12th | 7.4% | 2.7% | Republican |
| Illinois 13th | 10.0% | 5.3% | Republican |
| Illinois 14th | 9.0% | 4.3% | Republican |
| Illinois 15th | No Democrat | Not Applicable | Republican* |
| Illinois 16th | No Democrat | Not Applicable | Republican* |
| Illinois 17th | -10.0% | -14.7% | Democrat |
| Illinois 18th | 22.0% | 17.3% | Republican |
| Indiana 1st | No Republican | Not Applicable | Democrat* |
| Indiana 2nd | 11.5% | 6.8% | Republican |
| Indiana 3rd | 25.3% | 20.6% | Republican |
| Indiana 4th | 17.7% | 13.0% | Republican |
| Indiana 5th | 14.6% | 9.9% | Republican |
| Indiana 6th | 21.9% | 17.2% | Republican |
| Indiana 7th | -12.5% | -17.2% | Democrat |
| Indiana 8th | 16.7% | 12.0% | Republican |
| Indiana 9th | 6.8% | 2.1% | Republican |
| Iowa 1st | 4.0% | -0.7% | Democrat |
| Iowa 2nd | -4.0% | -8.7% | Democrat |
| Iowa 3rd | 7.4% | 2.7% | Republican |
| Iowa 4th | 11.0% | 6.3% | Republican |
| Kansas 1st | No Democrat | Not Applicable | Republican* |
| Kansas 2nd | 14.9% | 10.2% | Republican |
| Kansas 3rd | 5.4% | 0.7% | Republican |
| Kansas 4th | 17.0% | 12.3% | Republican |
| Kentucky 1st | 23.0% | 18.3% | Republican |
| Kentucky 2nd | No Democrat | Not Applicable | Republican* |
| Kentucky 3rd | -13.4% | -18.1% | Democrat |
| Kentucky 4th | 21.0% | 16.3% | Republican |
| Kentucky 5th | No Democrat | Not Applicable | Republican* |
| Kentucky 6th | 11.0% | 6.3% | Republican |
| Louisiana 1st | 35.2% | 30.5% | Republican |
| Louisiana 2nd | No Republican | Not Applicable | Democrat* |
| Louisiana 3rd | No Democrat | Not Applicable | Republican* |
| Louisiana 4th | 15.0% | 10.3% | Republican |
| Louisiana 5th | No Democrat | Not Applicable | Republican* |
| Louisiana 6th | 30.8% | 26.1% | Republican |
| Maine 1st | -8.0% | -12.7% | Democrat |
| Maine 2nd | 5.0% | 0.3% | Republican |
| Maryland 1st | 19.8% | 15.1% | Republican |
| Maryland 2nd | -15.3% | -20.0% | Democrat |
| Maryland 3rd | -14.9% | -19.6% | Democrat |
| Maryland 4th | -27.1% | -31.8% | Democrat |
| Maryland 5th | -20.1% | -24.8% | Democrat |
| Maryland 6th | -8.3% | -13.0% | Democrat |
| Maryland 7th | -27.3% | -32.0% | Democrat |
| Maryland 8th | -14.2% | -18.9% | Democrat |
| Massachusetts 1st | No Republican | No Republican | Democrat |
| Massachusetts 2nd | No Republican | Not Applicable | Democrat* |
| Massachusetts 3rd | -19.0% | -23.7% | Democrat |
| Massachusetts 4th | -20.0% | No Republican | Democrat |
| Massachusetts 5th | No Republican | Not Applicable | Democrat* |
| Massachusetts 6th | No Republican | Not Applicable | Democrat* |
| Massachusetts 7th | No Republican | No Republican | Democrat |
| Massachusetts 8th | -22.3% | No Republican | Democrat |
| Massachusetts 9th | -12.2% | -16.9% | Democrat |
| Michigan 1st | 7.9% | 3.2% | Republican |
| Michigan 2nd | 15.6% | 10.9% | Republican |
| Michigan 3rd | 11.2% | 6.5% | Republican |
| Michigan 4th | 16.0% | 11.3% | Republican |
| Michigan 5th | -13.5% | -18.2% | Democrat |
| Michigan 6th | 12.1% | 7.4% | Republican |
| Michigan 7th | 7.9% | 3.2% | Republican |
| Michigan 8th | 8.9% | 4.2% | Republican |
| Michigan 9th | -11.1% | -15.8% | Democrat |
| Michigan 10th | 16.3% | 11.6% | Republican |
| Michigan 11th | 7.0% | 2.3% | Republican |
| Michigan 12th | -18.8% | -23.5% | Democrat |
| Michigan 13th | -32.8% | No Republican | Democrat |
| Michigan 14th | -30.6% | -35.3% | Democrat |
| Minnesota 1st | 0.0% | -4.7% | Democrat |
| Minnesota 2nd | 1.1% | -3.6% | Democrat |
| Minnesota 3rd | 7.0% | 2.3% | Republican |
| Minnesota 4th | -13.0% | -17.7% | Democrat |
| Minnesota 5th | -25.8% | -30.5% | Democrat |
| Minnesota 6th | 16.0% | 11.3% | Republican |
| Minnesota 7th | -2.5% | -7.2% | Democrat |
| Minnesota 8th | 0.0% | -4.7% | Democrat |
| Mississippi 1st | 21.1% | 16.4% | Republican |
| Mississippi 2nd | -19.8% | No Republican | Democrat |
| Mississippi 3rd | 18.8% | 14.1% | Republican |
| Mississippi 4th | 19.9% | 15.2% | Republican |
| Missouri 1st | -29.2% | -33.9% | Democrat |
| Missouri 2nd | 10.8% | 6.1% | Republican |
| Missouri 3rd | 20.8% | 16.1% | Republican |
| Missouri 4th | 20.8% | 16.1% | Republican |
| Missouri 5th | -10.8% | -15.5% | Democrat |
| Missouri 6th | 20.8% | 16.1% | Republican |
| Missouri 7th | 21.6% | 16.9% | Republican |
| Missouri 8th | 26.3% | 21.6% | Republican |
| Montana at large | 7.7% | 3.0% | Republican |
| Nebraska 1st | 19.3% | 14.6% | Republican |
| Nebraska 2nd | 0.5% | -4.2% | Democrat |
| Nebraska 3rd | No Democrat | Not Applicable | Republican* |
| Nevada 1st | -18.1% | -22.8% | Democrat |
| Nevada 2nd | 11.1% | 6.4% | Republican |
| Nevada 3rd | -0.5% | -5.2% | Democrat |
| Nevada 4th | -2.1% | -6.8% | Democrat |
| New Hampshire 1st | -0.6% | -5.3% | Democrat |
| New Hampshire 2nd | -2.6% | -7.3% | Democrat |
| New Jersey 1st | -11.9% | -16.6% | Democrat |
| New Jersey 2nd | 11.5% | 6.8% | Republican |
| New Jersey 3rd | 10.2% | 5.5% | Republican |
| New Jersey 4th | 15.3% | 10.6% | Republican |
| New Jersey 5th | -2.0% | -6.7% | Democrat |
| New Jersey 6th | -14.6% | -19.3% | Democrat |
| New Jersey 7th | 5.7% | 1.0% | Republican |
| New Jersey 8th | -30.2% | -34.9% | Democrat |
| New Jersey 9th | -21.4% | -26.1% | Democrat |
| New Jersey 10th | -37.8% | -42.5% | Democrat |
| New Jersey 11th | 9.8% | 5.1% | Republican |
| New Jersey 12th | -16.3% | -21.0% | Democrat |
| New Mexico 1st | -15.0% | -19.7% | Democrat |
| New Mexico 2nd | 13.0% | 8.3% | Republican |
| New Mexico 3rd | -12.0% | -16.7% | Democrat |
| New York 1st | 8.0% | 3.3% | Republican |
| New York 2nd | 12.0% | 7.3% | Republican |
| New York 3rd | -3.0% | -7.7% | Democrat |
| New York 4th | -10.0% | -14.7% | Democrat |
| New York 5th | -36.9% | No Republican | Democrat |
| New York 6th | -22.7% | No Republican | Democrat |
| New York 7th | -41.0% | -45.7% | Democrat |
| New York 8th | No Republican | Not Applicable | Democrat* |
| New York 9th | No Republican | Not Applicable | Democrat* |
| New York 10th | -28.0% | -32.7% | Democrat |
| New York 11th | 12.6% | 7.9% | Republican |
| New York 12th | -33.0% | -37.7% | Democrat |
| New York 13th | -42.7% | -47.4% | Democrat |
| New York 14th | -33.0% | -37.7% | Democrat |
| New York 15th | -46.0% | -50.7% | Democrat |
| New York 16th | No Republican | No Republican | Democrat |
| New York 17th | No Republican | No Republican | Democrat |
| New York 18th | -6.0% | -10.7% | Democrat |
| New York 19th | 4.0% | -0.7% | Democrat |
| New York 20th | -18.0% | -22.7% | Democrat |
| New York 21st | 18.4% | 13.7% | Republican |
| New York 22nd | 3.4% | -1.3% | Democrat |
| New York 23rd | 8.0% | 3.3% | Republican |
| New York 24th | 11.0% | 6.3% | Republican |
| New York 25th | -6.0% | -10.7% | Democrat |
| New York 26th | -25.0% | -29.7% | Democrat |
| New York 27th | 17.0% | 12.3% | Republican |
| North Carolina 1st | -20.4% | -25.1% | Democrat |
| North Carolina 2nd | 7.0% | 2.3% | Republican |
| North Carolina 3rd | 17.0% | No Democrat | Republican |
| North Carolina 4th | -18.0% | -22.7% | Democrat |
| North Carolina 5th | 8.0% | 3.3% | Republican |
| North Carolina 6th | 9.0% | 4.3% | Republican |
| North Carolina 7th | 11.0% | 6.3% | Republican |
| North Carolina 8th | 9.0% | 4.3% | Republican |
| North Carolina 9th | 8.0% | 3.3% | Republican |
| North Carolina 10th | 13.0% | 8.3% | Republican |
| North Carolina 11th | 14.0% | 9.3% | Republican |
| North Carolina 12th | -17.0% | -21.7% | Democrat |
| North Carolina 13th | 6.0% | 1.3% | Republican |
| North Dakota at large | 24.2% | 19.5% | Republican |
| Ohio 1st | 9.0% | 4.3% | Republican |
| Ohio 2nd | 16.0% | 11.3% | Republican |
| Ohio 3rd | -19.0% | -23.7% | Democrat |
| Ohio 4th | 18.0% | 13.3% | Republican |
| Ohio 5th | 21.0% | 16.3% | Republican |
| Ohio 6th | 21.0% | 16.3% | Republican |
| Ohio 7th | 18.8% | 14.1% | Republican |
| Ohio 8th | 21.9% | 17.2% | Republican |
| Ohio 9th | -19.0% | -23.7% | Democrat |
| Ohio 10th | 16.0% | 11.3% | Republican |
| Ohio 11th | -30.0% | -34.7% | Democrat |
| Ohio 12th | 19.1% | 14.4% | Republican |
| Ohio 13th | -18.0% | -22.7% | Democrat |
| Ohio 14th | 13.0% | 8.3% | Republican |
| Ohio 15th | 16.0% | 11.3% | Republican |
| Ohio 16th | 15.0% | 10.3% | Republican |
| Oklahoma 1st | No Democrat | Not Applicable | Republican* |
| Oklahoma 2nd | 25.5% | 20.8% | Republican |
| Oklahoma 3rd | 28.0% | 23.3% | Republican |
| Oklahoma 4th | 22.9% | 18.2% | Republican |
| Oklahoma 5th | 10.6% | 5.9% | Republican |
| Oregon 1st | -11.9% | -16.6% | Democrat |
| Oregon 2nd | 22.0% | 17.3% | Republican |
| Oregon 3rd | No Republican | No Republican | Democrat |
| Oregon 4th | -8.3% | -13.0% | Democrat |
| Oregon 5th | -5.7% | -10.4% | Democrat |
| Pennsylvania 1st | -32.0% | -36.7% | Democrat |
| Pennsylvania 2nd | -40.0% | -44.7% | Democrat |
| Pennsylvania 3rd | No Democrat | Not Applicable | Republican* |
| Pennsylvania 4th | 16.0% | 11.3% | Republican |
| Pennsylvania 5th | 17.0% | 12.3% | Republican |
| Pennsylvania 6th | 7.0% | 2.3% | Republican |
| Pennsylvania 7th | 9.4% | 4.7% | Republican |
| Pennsylvania 8th | 4.0% | -0.7% | Democrat |
| Pennsylvania 9th | 13.0% | 8.3% | Republican |
| Pennsylvania 10th | 20.0% | 15.3% | Republican |
| Pennsylvania 11th | 14.0% | 9.3% | Republican |
| Pennsylvania 12th | 12.0% | 7.3% | Republican |
| Pennsylvania 13th | No Republican | Not Applicable | Democrat* |
| Pennsylvania 14th | -24.0% | -28.7% | Democrat |
| Pennsylvania 15th | 10.4% | 5.7% | Republican |
| Pennsylvania 16th | 5.7% | 1.0% | Republican |
| Pennsylvania 17th | -4.0% | -8.7% | Democrat |
| Pennsylvania 18th | No Democrat | No Republican | Republican |
| Rhode Island 1st | -15.0% | -19.7% | Democrat |
| Rhode Island 2nd | -15.2% | -19.9% | Democrat |
| South Carolina 1st | 11.5% | 6.8% | Republican |
| South Carolina 2nd | 12.5% | 7.8% | Republican |
| South Carolina 3rd | 23.0% | 18.3% | Republican |
| South Carolina 4th | 18.4% | 13.7% | Republican |
| South Carolina 5th | 10.2% | 5.5% | Republican |
| South Carolina 6th | -21.4% | -26.1% | Democrat |
| South Carolina 7th | 11.0% | 6.3% | Republican |
| South Dakota at large | 14.0% | 9.3% | Republican |
| Tennessee 1st | 33.9% | 29.2% | Republican |
| Tennessee 2nd | 26.0% | 21.3% | Republican |
| Tennessee 3rd | 19.5% | 14.8% | Republican |
| Tennessee 4th | 15.0% | 10.3% | Republican |
| Tennessee 5th | -13.0% | -17.7% | Democrat |
| Tennessee 6th | 26.3% | 21.6% | Republican |
| Tennessee 7th | 25.0% | 20.3% | Republican |
| Tennessee 8th | 23.4% | 18.7% | Republican |
| Tennessee 9th | -30.6% | -35.3% | Democrat |
| Texas 1st | 25.5% | 20.8% | Republican |
| Texas 2nd | 12.9% | 8.2% | Republican |
| Texas 3rd | 13.5% | 8.8% | Republican |
| Texas 4th | No Democrat | Not Applicable | Republican* |
| Texas 5th | No Democrat | Not Applicable | Republican* |
| Texas 6th | 9.8% | 5.1% | Republican |
| Texas 7th | 6.0% | 1.3% | Republican |
| Texas 8th | No Democrat | Not Applicable | Republican* |
| Texas 9th | -31.0% | No Republican | Democrat |
| Texas 10th | 10.0% | 5.3% | Republican |
| Texas 11th | No Democrat | Not Applicable | Republican* |
| Texas 12th | 21.9% | 17.2% | Republican |
| Texas 13th | No Democrat | Not Applicable | Republican* |
| Texas 14th | 12.0% | 7.3% | Republican |
| Texas 15th | -10.0% | -14.7% | Democrat |
| Texas 16th | No Republican | Not Applicable | Democrat* |
| Texas 17th | 13.5% | 8.8% | Republican |
| Texas 18th | -25.5% | -30.2% | Democrat |
| Texas 19th | No Democrat | Not Applicable | Republican* |
| Texas 20th | No Republican | No Republican | Democrat |
| Texas 21st | 11.3% | 6.6% | Republican |
| Texas 22nd | 9.4% | 4.7% | Republican |
| Texas 23rd | 0.5% | -4.2% | Democrat |
| Texas 24th | 8.9% | 4.2% | Republican |
| Texas 25th | 10.4% | 5.7% | Republican |
| Texas 26th | 18.8% | 14.1% | Republican |
| Texas 27th | 12.0% | 7.3% | Republican |
| Texas 28th | -18.0% | No Republican | Democrat |
| Texas 29th | -25.3% | -30.0% | Democrat |
| Texas 30th | -30.4% | No Republican | Democrat |
| Texas 31st | 11.1% | 6.4% | Republican |
| Texas 32nd | No Democrat | Not Applicable | Republican* |
| Texas 33rd | -24.0% | -28.7% | Democrat |
| Texas 34th | -13.0% | -17.7% | Democrat |
| Texas 35th | -16.3% | -21.0% | Democrat |
| Texas 36th | No Democrat | Not Applicable | Republican* |
| Utah 1st | 21.7% | 17.0% | Republican |
| Utah 2nd | 14.6% | 9.9% | Republican |
| Utah 3rd | 23.3% | 18.6% | Republican |
| Utah 4th | 6.8% | 2.1% | Republican |
| Vermont at large | No Republican | Not Applicable | Democrat* |
| Virginia 1st | 11.9% | 7.2% | Republican |
| Virginia 2nd | 11.4% | 6.7% | Republican |
| Virginia 3rd | -17.0% | No Republican | Democrat |
| Virginia 4th | -8.0% | -12.7% | Democrat |
| Virginia 5th | 8.0% | 3.3% | Republican |
| Virginia 6th | 17.0% | 12.3% | Republican |
| Virginia 7th | 8.0% | 3.3% | Republican |
| Virginia 8th | -21.9% | -26.6% | Democrat |
| Virginia 9th | 21.1% | 16.4% | Republican |
| Virginia 10th | 3.0% | -1.7% | Democrat |
| Virginia 11th | No Republican | Not Applicable | Democrat* |
| Washington 1st | -5.0% | -9.7% | Democrat |
| Washington 2nd | -14.0% | No Republican | Democrat |
| Washington 3rd | 12.0% | 7.3% | Republican |
| Washington 4th | No Democrat | Not Applicable | Republican* |
| Washington 5th | 10.0% | 5.3% | Republican |
| Washington 6th | -11.4% | -16.1% | Democrat |
| Washington 7th | No Republican | Not Applicable | Democrat* |
| Washington 8th | 10.0% | 5.3% | Republican |
| Washington 9th | -23.0% | No Republican | Democrat |
| Washington 10th | -9.0% | -13.7% | Democrat |
| West Virginia 1st | 19.0% | 14.3% | Republican |
| West Virginia 2nd | 8.0% | 3.3% | Republican |
| West Virginia 3rd | 23.9% | 19.2% | Republican |
| Wisconsin 1st | 18.4% | 13.7% | Republican |
| Wisconsin 2nd | -19.0% | No Republican | Democrat |
| Wisconsin 3rd | No Republican | Not Applicable | Democrat* |
| Wisconsin 4th | No Republican | Not Applicable | Democrat* |
| Wisconsin 5th | 19.8% | 15.1% | Republican |
| Wisconsin 6th | 10.6% | 5.9% | Republican |
| Wisconsin 7th | 12.0% | 7.3% | Republican |
| Wisconsin 8th | 13.0% | 8.3% | Republican |
| Wyoming at large | 17.4% | 12.7% | Republican |
If the polled swing is uniform across the US, this will result in Republicans retaining controll of the house with 229 seats: a reduction from the 241 at the last election but still a majority over the Democrats' 2006. Obviously applying such generalised statistics to a large and diverse population is highly problematic, but as will become apparent the availible data is generally less than ideal. Results marked with an * are implied by the lack of contest in 2016.
State-wide data is hard to come by, and highly inacurate due to the prevalence of gerrymandering in the US. However many seats considered to be key to this election have had polling conducted in the last month. Below are the latest results for the 71 seats given this special focus.
| District | Republican Support 2016 | Most Recent Poll | Rep | Dem | Poll Date |
| Alaska at large | 8.6% | -0.5% | 48% | 49% | Nov 2nd |
| Arizona 2nd | 7.0% | -6.2% | 39% | 50% | Oct 4th |
| Arkansas 2nd | 11.1% | 6.5% | 52% | 40% | Oct 21st |
| California 10th | 2.0% | -1.1% | 45% | 47% | Oct 26th |
| California 22nd | 18.0% | 4.1% | 53% | 45% | Oct 5th |
| California 25th | 3.0% | 2.2% | 48% | 44% | Oct 29th |
| California 39th | 7.0% | -0.5% | 46% | 47% | Oct 25th |
| California 45th | 9.0% | 1.1% | 48% | 46% | Nov 3rd |
| California 48th | 8.0% | 1.0% | 50% | 48% | Oct 23rd |
| California 49th | 0.0% | -3.7% | 44% | 51% | Nov 2nd |
| California 50th | 13.4% | 1.6% | 48% | 45% | Oct 30th |
| Colorado 6th | 4.3% | -5.3% | 38% | 47% | Oct 18th |
| Florida 15th | 7.4% | 0.0% | 43% | 43% | Oct 20th |
| Florida 16th | 10.0% | 5.3% | 52% | 42% | Oct 9th |
| Florida 26th | 6.4% | -0.6% | 44% | 45% | Oct 25th |
| Florida 27th | 5.0% | -4.3% | 37% | 44% | Oct 22nd |
| Georgia 6th | 12.0% | 2.1% | 49% | 45% | Oct 23rd |
| Georgia 7th | 10.0% | 3.3% | 49% | 43% | Oct 22nd |
| Illinois 6th | 9.0% | -1.1% | 44% | 46% | Oct 27th |
| Illinois 12th | 7.4% | 5.2% | 48% | 39% | Oct 23rd |
| Illinois 13th | 10.0% | 2.9% | 46% | 41% | Oct 26th |
| Illinois 14th | 9.0% | 2.2% | 47% | 43% | Oct 9th |
| Iowa 1st | 4.0% | -4.1% | 39% | 46% | Nov 2nd (NY Times) |
| Iowa 2nd | -4.0% | -7.0% | 40% | 53% | Nov 2nd |
| Iowa 3rd | 7.4% | -0.5% | 45% | 46% | Nov 2nd |
| Iowa 4th | 11.0% | 4.8% | 51% | 42% | Nov 2nd |
| Kansas 2nd | 14.9% | -2.6% | 37% | 41% | Oct 31st |
| Kansas 3rd | 5.4% | -6.1% | 43% | 55% | Oct 30th |
| Maine 2nd | 5.0% | -0.5% | 46% | 47% | Oct 31st |
| Michigan 8th | 8.9% | 1.6% | 48% | 45% | Oct 19th |
| Michigan 11th | 7.0% | 0.0% | 48% | 48% | Oct 19th |
| Minnesota 1st | 0.0% | -1.1% | 45% | 47% | Oct 24th |
| Minnesota 2nd | 1.1% | -6.7% | 39% | 51% | Oct 4th |
| Minnesota 8th | 0.0% | 9.0% | 49% | 34% | Oct 15th |
| Montana at large | 7.7% | 0.0% | 48% | 48% | Oct 30th |
| Nevada 3rd | -0.5% | -1.3% | 39% | 41% | Oct 15th |
| Nevada 4th | -2.1% | -1.4% | 34% | 36% | Oct 15th |
| New Hampshire 1st | -0.6% | -1.1% | 46% | 48% | Oct 31st |
| New Hampshire 2nd | -2.6% | -6.5% | 40% | 52% | Oct 31st |
| New Jersey 2nd | 11.5% | -9.1% | 38% | 55% | Oct 25th |
| New Jersey 3rd | 10.2% | 0.6% | 45% | 44% | Oct 26th |
| New Jersey 7th | 5.7% | -4.7% | 39% | 47% | Nov 1st |
| New Jersey 11th | 9.8% | -6.3% | 38% | 49% | Oct 19th |
| New Mexico 1st | -15.0% | -4.3% | 43% | 51% | Nov 1st |
| New Mexico 2nd | 13.0% | 2.8% | 47% | 42% | Nov 1st |
| New York 1st | 8.0% | 4.4% | 49% | 41% | Oct 9th |
| New York 11th | 12.6% | 2.4% | 44% | 40% | Oct 28th |
| New York 19th | 4.0% | -2.7% | 44% | 49% | Oct 30th |
| New York 22nd | 3.4% | -0.5% | 45% | 46% | Oct 24th |
| New York 24th | 11.0% | 7.6% | 53% | 39% | Oct 28th |
| New York 27th | 17.0% | 4.2% | 45% | 38% | Nov 2nd |
| North Carolina 2nd | 7.0% | 5.1% | 49% | 40% | Oct 30th |
| North Carolina 9th | 8.0% | 0.6% | 45% | 44% | Oct 31st |
| North Carolina 13th | 6.0% | 1.8% | 44% | 41% | Oct 15th |
| Ohio 1st | 9.0% | 4.9% | 50% | 41% | Oct 26th |
| Pennsylvania 1st | -32.0% | 0.5% | 47% | 46% | Oct 30th |
| Pennsylvania 7th | 9.4% | -3.3% | 42% | 48% | Oct 19th |
| Pennsylvania 8th | 4.0% | -6.5% | 40% | 52% | Oct 20th |
| Pennsylvania 10th | 20.0% | 1.6% | 49% | 46% | Oct 30th |
| Pennsylvania 16th | 5.7% | -2.0% | 47% | 51% | Oct 31st |
| Pennsylvania 17th | -4.0% | -6.3% | 42% | 54% | Oct 10th |
| Texas 7th | 6.0% | 0.5% | 46% | 45% | Oct 26th |
| Texas 23rd | 0.5% | 8.2% | 53% | 38% | Oct 19th |
| Utah 4th | 6.8% | -3.8% | 43% | 50% | Oct 30th |
| Virginia 2nd | 11.4% | 1.7% | 45% | 42% | Oct 23rd |
| Virginia 5th | 8.0% | -0.5% | 45% | 46% | Oct 23rd |
| Virginia 7th | 8.0% | -0.5% | 45% | 46% | Oct 29th |
| Virginia 10th | 3.0% | -5.7% | 43% | 54% | Nov 2nd |
| Washington 3rd | 12.0% | 3.9% | 48% | 41% | Oct 21st |
| Washington 8th | 10.0% | 5.7% | 49% | 39% | Oct 11th |
| West Virginia 3rd | 23.9% | 3.6% | 52% | 45% | Nov 1st |
Additionally, certain key seats have been assessed as being safe, likely, leaning or tilting to one party or another. The median rating of such seats from numerous sources is given here:
Normally I would not relly on this kind of second-hand data, but the shortage of reliable, broadly-applicable information in these cases is chronic. There are large gaps in these data sets. No useful data at all exists for Alabama, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, both Dakotas, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Vermont or Wyoming. Instead, the best we can do is stitch together the information we have, erroneous and incomplete as it may be, and accept the resulting predictions will come with several siginifcant caveats. It is foolish to insist on strict scientific accuracy in these situations, so my methods are as rough and ready as the data itself:
First, districts where one major party is not contesting are awarded to the other. Second, district broadly accepted as safe by are awarded accordingly. Third, any district with polling in excess of a 2% margin is given to the leading party. Fourth, any district with a median rating of likely is filled in as such to round out the likely results. Beyond this point things get very sketchy. Any district with no contradictory data (including predicted incumbent from the 4.7% swing, recent polling and third-party assessment) is granted to the party indicated. After that, any median lean or tilt at all is conceeded, and after that, to split any remaining tossups, polling is accepted even if its well within any margin of error.
The resulting Frankenstein's monster of a prediction that results is as follows:
On these numbers the Democrats would win back the house 220:215, but that shows how tight this race will be and warns that the 'Blue Wave' may be little more than a ripple. Then again, this is a significant improvement in the Dems' chances with only partial fine-grained data. If more information was availible perhaps we would be looking at numbers in the mid 200s. While there is not impartial or mathematical way to justify this, my feeling is that the Dems will do a little better than 220, maybe somewhere in the 230s. It will not, however, be the cruching rejection of Trump-style Republicanism many are predicting.
TL;DR:
US data is very patchy and varies from state to state. As a result the prediction is a roughly-cobbled together mess that is significantly less reliable than I would wish.
What we do have predicts 220 house seats for the Democrats and 215 for the Republicans, enough to take back the house and hinder the Trump administration but not the resounding blow some on the left are wishing for.
My gut feeling is that more complete data would raise the Dem's seats into the 230s, but there is no impirical basis for this.
| District | Median Rating |
| Alaska at large | Lean Republican |
| Arizona 1st | Lean Democrat |
| Arizona 2nd | Lean Democrat |
| Arizona 6th | Likely Republican |
| Arizona 8th | Likely Republican |
| Arizona 9th | Safe Democrat |
| Arkansas 2nd | Lean Republican |
| California 1st | Safe Republican |
| California 3rd | Likely Republican |
| California 7th | Likely Democrat |
| California 10th | Tossup |
| California 16th | Safe Democrat |
| California 21st | Likely Republican |
| California 22nd | Likely Republican |
| California 24th | Safe Democrat |
| California 25th | Tossup |
| California 39th | Tossup |
| California 45th | Tossup |
| California 48th | Tossup |
| California 49th | Lean Democrat |
| California 50th | Lean Republican |
| Colorado 3rd | Likely Republican |
| Colorado 6th | Lean Democrat |
| Connecticut 5th | Safe Democrat |
| Florida 6th | Lean Republican |
| Florida 7th | Likely Democrat |
| Florida 13th | Safe Democrat |
| Florida 15th | Lean Republican |
| Florida 16th | Likely Republican |
| Florida 18th | Lean Republican |
| Florida 25th | Likely Republican |
| Florida 26th | Tossup |
| Florida 27th | Lean Democrat |
| Georgia 6th | Lean Republican |
| Georgia 7th | Lean Republican |
| Illinois 6th | Tossup |
| Illinois 12th | Lean Republican |
| Illinois 13th | Lean Republican |
| Illinois 14th | Lean Republican |
| Illinois 17th | Safe Democrat |
| Indiana 2nd | Likely Republican |
| Indiana 9th | Likely Republican |
| Iowa 1st | Lean Democrat |
| Iowa 2nd | Safe Democrat |
| Iowa 3rd | Tossup |
| Iowa 4th | Likely Republican |
| Kansas 2nd | Tossup |
| Kansas 3rd | Lean Democrat |
| Kansas 4th | Safe Republican |
| Kentucky 6th | Tossup |
| Maine 2nd | Tossup |
| Maryland 6th | Safe Democrat |
| Massachusetts 9th | Safe Democrat |
| Michigan 1st | Likely Republican |
| Michigan 2nd | Safe Republican |
| Michigan 3rd | Safe Republican |
| Michigan 4th | No Data |
| Michigan 5th | Safe Democrat |
| Michigan 6th | Lean Republican |
| Michigan 7th | Likely Republican |
| Michigan 8th | Tossup |
| Michigan 11th | Lean Democrat |
| Minnesota 1st | Tossup |
| Minnesota 2nd | Lean Democrat |
| Minnesota 3rd | Lean Democrat |
| Minnesota 7th | Likely Democrat |
| Minnesota 8th | Lean Republican |
| Missouri 2nd | Likely Republican |
| Montana at large | Lean Republican |
| Nebraska 2nd | Lean Republican |
| Nevada 2nd | Safe Republican |
| Nevada 3rd | Lean Democrat |
| Nevada 4th | Lean Democrat |
| New Hampshire 1st | Lean Democrat |
| New Hampshire 2nd | Safe Democrat |
| New Jersey 2nd | Likely Democrat |
| New Jersey 3rd | Tossup |
| New Jersey 4th | Safe Republican |
| New Jersey 5th | Likely Democrat |
| New Jersey 7th | Tossup |
| New Jersey 11th | Lean Democrat |
| New Mexico 1st | Safe Democrat |
| New Mexico 2nd | Tossup |
| New York 1st | Likely Republican |
| New York 2nd | Likely Republican |
| New York 3rd | Safe Democrat |
| New York 11th | Lean Republican |
| New York 18th | Safe Democrat |
| New York 19th | Tossup |
| New York 21st | Likely Republican |
| New York 22nd | Tossup |
| New York 23rd | Likely Republican |
| New York 24th | Lean Republican |
| New York 27th | Lean Republican |
| North Carolina 2nd | Lean Republican |
| North Carolina 6th | Safe Republican |
| North Carolina 7th | Safe Republican |
| North Carolina 8th | Likely Republican |
| North Carolina 9th | Tossup |
| North Carolina 13th | Lean Republican |
| Ohio 1st | Lean Republican |
| Ohio 7th | Likely Republican |
| Ohio 10th | Likely Republican |
| Ohio 12th | Lean Republican |
| Ohio 14th | Likely Republican |
| Ohio 15th | Safe Republican |
| Ohio 16th | Safe Republican |
| Oklahoma 5th | Likely Republican |
| Oregon 2nd | Safe Republican |
| Oregon 5th | Safe Democrat |
| Pennsylvania 1st | Tossup |
| Pennsylvania 5th | Likely Democrat |
| Pennsylvania 6th | Likely Democrat |
| Pennsylvania 7th | Lean Democrat |
| Pennsylvania 8th | Likely Democrat |
| Pennsylvania 10th | Lean Republican |
| Pennsylvania 11th | Safe Republican |
| Pennsylvania 14th | Safe Republican |
| Pennsylvania 16th | Lean Republican |
| Pennsylvania 17th | Likely Democrat |
| South Carolina 1st | Likely Republican |
| Texas 2nd | Likely Republican |
| Texas 3rd | Safe Republican |
| Texas 6th | Safe Republican |
| Texas 10th | Safe Republican |
| Texas 21st | Likely Republican |
| Texas 22nd | Likely Republican |
| Texas 23rd | Lean Republican |
| Texas 24th | Safe Republican |
| Texas 25th | Safe Republican |
| Texas 31st | Likely Republican |
| Texas 32nd | Tossup |
| Utah 4th | Tossup |
| Virginia 2nd | Tossup |
| Virginia 5th | Lean Republican |
| Virginia 7th | Tossup |
| Virginia 10th | Lean Democrat |
| Washington 3rd | Lean Republican |
| Washington 5th | Lean Republican |
| Washington 8th | Tossup |
| West Virginia 2nd | Safe Republican |
| West Virginia 3rd | Lean Republican |
| Wisconsin 1st | Lean Republican |
| Wisconsin 3rd | Safe Democrat |
| Wisconsin 6th | Likely Republican |
| Wisconsin 8th | Safe Republican |
Normally I would not relly on this kind of second-hand data, but the shortage of reliable, broadly-applicable information in these cases is chronic. There are large gaps in these data sets. No useful data at all exists for Alabama, Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, both Dakotas, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Vermont or Wyoming. Instead, the best we can do is stitch together the information we have, erroneous and incomplete as it may be, and accept the resulting predictions will come with several siginifcant caveats. It is foolish to insist on strict scientific accuracy in these situations, so my methods are as rough and ready as the data itself:
First, districts where one major party is not contesting are awarded to the other. Second, district broadly accepted as safe by are awarded accordingly. Third, any district with polling in excess of a 2% margin is given to the leading party. Fourth, any district with a median rating of likely is filled in as such to round out the likely results. Beyond this point things get very sketchy. Any district with no contradictory data (including predicted incumbent from the 4.7% swing, recent polling and third-party assessment) is granted to the party indicated. After that, any median lean or tilt at all is conceeded, and after that, to split any remaining tossups, polling is accepted even if its well within any margin of error.
The resulting Frankenstein's monster of a prediction that results is as follows:
| District | Incumbent | Prediction |
| Alabama 1st | Republican | Republican |
| Alabama 2nd | Republican | Republican |
| Alabama 3rd | Republican | Republican |
| Alabama 4th | Republican | Republican |
| Alabama 5th | Republican | Republican |
| Alabama 6th | Republican | Republican |
| Alabama 7th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Alaska at large | Republican | Republican |
| Arizona 1st | Democrat | Democrat |
| Arizona 2nd | Republican | Democrat |
| Arizona 3rd | Democrat | Democrat |
| Arizona 4th | Republican | Republican |
| Arizona 5th | Republican | Republican |
| Arizona 6th | Republican | Republican |
| Arizona 7th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Arizona 8th | Republican | Republican |
| Arizona 9th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Arkansas 1st | Republican | Republican |
| Arkansas 2nd | Republican | Republican |
| Arkansas 3rd | Republican | Republican |
| Arkansas 4th | Republican | Republican |
| California 1st | Republican | Republican |
| California 2nd | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 3rd | Democrat | Republican |
| California 4th | Republican | Republican |
| California 5th | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 6th | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 7th | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 8th | Republican | Republican |
| California 9th | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 10th | Republican | Democrat |
| California 11th | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 12th | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 13th | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 14th | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 15th | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 16th | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 17th | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 18th | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 19th | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 20th | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 21st | Republican | Republican |
| California 22nd | Republican | Republican |
| California 23rd | Republican | Republican |
| California 24th | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 25th | Republican | Republican |
| California 26th | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 27th | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 28th | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 29th | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 30th | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 31st | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 32nd | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 33rd | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 34th | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 35th | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 36th | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 37th | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 38th | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 39th | Republican | Democrat |
| California 40th | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 41st | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 42nd | Republican | Republican |
| California 43rd | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 44th | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 45th | Republican | Republican |
| California 46th | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 47th | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 48th | Republican | Republican |
| California 49th | Republican | Democrat |
| California 50th | Republican | Republican |
| California 51st | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 52nd | Democrat | Democrat |
| California 53rd | Democrat | Democrat |
| Colorado 1st | Democrat | Democrat |
| Colorado 2nd | Democrat | Democrat |
| Colorado 3rd | Republican | Republican |
| Colorado 4th | Republican | Republican |
| Colorado 5th | Republican | Republican |
| Colorado 6th | Republican | Democrat |
| Colorado 7th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Connecticut 1st | Democrat | Democrat |
| Connecticut 2nd | Democrat | Democrat |
| Connecticut 3rd | Democrat | Democrat |
| Connecticut 4th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Connecticut 5th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Delaware at large | Democrat | Democrat |
| Florida 1st | Republican | Republican |
| Florida 2nd | Republican | Republican |
| Florida 3rd | Republican | Republican |
| Florida 4th | Republican | Republican |
| Florida 5th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Florida 6th | Republican | Republican |
| Florida 7th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Florida 8th | Republican | Republican |
| Florida 9th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Florida 10th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Florida 11th | Republican | Republican |
| Florida 12th | Republican | Republican |
| Florida 13th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Florida 14th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Florida 15th | Republican | Republican |
| Florida 16th | Republican | Republican |
| Florida 17th | Republican | Republican |
| Florida 18th | Republican | Republican |
| Florida 19th | Republican | Republican |
| Florida 20th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Florida 21st | Democrat | Democrat |
| Florida 22nd | Democrat | Democrat |
| Florida 23rd | Democrat | Democrat |
| Florida 24th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Florida 25th | Republican | Republican |
| Florida 26th | Republican | Democrat |
| Florida 27th | Republican | Democrat |
| Georgia 1st | Republican | Republican |
| Georgia 2nd | Democrat | Democrat |
| Georgia 3rd | Republican | Republican |
| Georgia 4th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Georgia 5th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Georgia 6th | Republican | Republican |
| Georgia 7th | Republican | Republican |
| Georgia 8th | Republican | Republican |
| Georgia 9th | Republican | Republican |
| Georgia 10th | Republican | Republican |
| Georgia 11th | Republican | Republican |
| Georgia 12th | Republican | Republican |
| Georgia 13th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Georgia 14th | Republican | Republican |
| Hawaii 1st | Democrat | Democrat |
| Hawaii 2nd | Democrat | Democrat |
| Idaho 1st | Republican | Republican |
| Idaho 2nd | Republican | Republican |
| Illinois 1st | Democrat | Democrat |
| Illinois 2nd | Democrat | Democrat |
| Illinois 3rd | Democrat | Democrat |
| Illinois 4th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Illinois 5th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Illinois 6th | Republican | Democrat |
| Illinois 7th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Illinois 8th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Illinois 9th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Illinois 10th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Illinois 11th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Illinois 12th | Republican | Republican |
| Illinois 13th | Republican | Republican |
| Illinois 14th | Republican | Republican |
| Illinois 15th | Republican | Republican |
| Illinois 16th | Republican | Republican |
| Illinois 17th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Illinois 18th | Republican | Republican |
| Indiana 1st | Democrat | Democrat |
| Indiana 2nd | Republican | Republican |
| Indiana 3rd | Republican | Republican |
| Indiana 4th | Republican | Republican |
| Indiana 5th | Republican | Republican |
| Indiana 6th | Republican | Republican |
| Indiana 7th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Indiana 8th | Republican | Republican |
| Indiana 9th | Republican | Republican |
| Iowa 1st | Republican | Democrat |
| Iowa 2nd | Democrat | Democrat |
| Iowa 3rd | Republican | Democrat |
| Iowa 4th | Republican | Republican |
| Kansas 1st | Republican | Republican |
| Kansas 2nd | Republican | Democrat |
| Kansas 3rd | Republican | Democrat |
| Kansas 4th | Republican | Republican |
| Kentucky 1st | Republican | Republican |
| Kentucky 2nd | Republican | Republican |
| Kentucky 3rd | Democrat | Democrat |
| Kentucky 4th | Republican | Republican |
| Kentucky 5th | Republican | Republican |
| Kentucky 6th | Republican | Republican |
| Louisiana 1st | Republican | Republican |
| Louisiana 2nd | Democrat | Democrat |
| Louisiana 3rd | Republican | Republican |
| Louisiana 4th | Republican | Republican |
| Louisiana 5th | Republican | Republican |
| Louisiana 6th | Republican | Republican |
| Maine 1st | Democrat | Democrat |
| Maine 2nd | Republican | Democrat |
| Maryland 1st | Republican | Republican |
| Maryland 2nd | Democrat | Democrat |
| Maryland 3rd | Democrat | Democrat |
| Maryland 4th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Maryland 5th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Maryland 6th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Maryland 7th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Maryland 8th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Massachusetts 1st | Democrat | Democrat |
| Massachusetts 2nd | Democrat | Democrat |
| Massachusetts 3rd | Democrat | Democrat |
| Massachusetts 4th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Massachusetts 5th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Massachusetts 6th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Massachusetts 7th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Massachusetts 8th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Massachusetts 9th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Michigan 1st | Republican | Republican |
| Michigan 2nd | Republican | Republican |
| Michigan 3rd | Republican | Republican |
| Michigan 4th | Republican | Republican |
| Michigan 5th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Michigan 6th | Republican | Republican |
| Michigan 7th | Republican | Republican |
| Michigan 8th | Republican | Republican |
| Michigan 9th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Michigan 10th | Republican | Republican |
| Michigan 11th | Republican | Democrat |
| Michigan 12th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Michigan 13th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Michigan 14th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Minnesota 1st | Democrat | Democrat |
| Minnesota 2nd | Republican | Democrat |
| Minnesota 3rd | Republican | Democrat |
| Minnesota 4th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Minnesota 5th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Minnesota 6th | Republican | Republican |
| Minnesota 7th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Minnesota 8th | Democrat | Republican |
| Mississippi 1st | Republican | Republican |
| Mississippi 2nd | Democrat | Democrat |
| Mississippi 3rd | Republican | Republican |
| Mississippi 4th | Republican | Republican |
| Missouri 1st | Democrat | Democrat |
| Missouri 2nd | Republican | Republican |
| Missouri 3rd | Republican | Republican |
| Missouri 4th | Republican | Republican |
| Missouri 5th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Missouri 6th | Republican | Republican |
| Missouri 7th | Republican | Republican |
| Missouri 8th | Republican | Republican |
| Montana at large | Republican | Republican |
| Nebraska 1st | Republican | Republican |
| Nebraska 2nd | Republican | Republican |
| Nebraska 3rd | Republican | Republican |
| Nevada 1st | Democrat | Democrat |
| Nevada 2nd | Republican | Republican |
| Nevada 3rd | Democrat | Democrat |
| Nevada 4th | Democrat | Democrat |
| New Hampshire 1st | Democrat | Democrat |
| New Hampshire 2nd | Democrat | Democrat |
| New Jersey 1st | Democrat | Democrat |
| New Jersey 2nd | Republican | Democrat |
| New Jersey 3rd | Republican | Republican |
| New Jersey 4th | Republican | Republican |
| New Jersey 5th | Democrat | Democrat |
| New Jersey 6th | Democrat | Democrat |
| New Jersey 7th | Republican | Democrat |
| New Jersey 8th | Democrat | Democrat |
| New Jersey 9th | Democrat | Democrat |
| New Jersey 10th | Democrat | Democrat |
| New Jersey 11th | Republican | Democrat |
| New Jersey 12th | Democrat | Democrat |
| New Mexico 1st | Democrat | Democrat |
| New Mexico 2nd | Republican | Republican |
| New Mexico 3rd | Democrat | Democrat |
| New York 1st | Republican | Republican |
| New York 2nd | Republican | Republican |
| New York 3rd | Democrat | Democrat |
| New York 4th | Democrat | Democrat |
| New York 5th | Democrat | Democrat |
| New York 6th | Democrat | Democrat |
| New York 7th | Democrat | Democrat |
| New York 8th | Democrat | Democrat |
| New York 9th | Democrat | Democrat |
| New York 10th | Democrat | Democrat |
| New York 11th | Republican | Republican |
| New York 12th | Democrat | Democrat |
| New York 13th | Democrat | Democrat |
| New York 14th | Democrat | Democrat |
| New York 15th | Democrat | Democrat |
| New York 16th | Democrat | Democrat |
| New York 17th | Democrat | Democrat |
| New York 18th | Democrat | Democrat |
| New York 19th | Republican | Democrat |
| New York 20th | Democrat | Democrat |
| New York 21st | Republican | Republican |
| New York 22nd | Republican | Democrat |
| New York 23rd | Republican | Republican |
| New York 24th | Republican | Republican |
| New York 25th | Democrat | Democrat |
| New York 26th | Democrat | Democrat |
| New York 27th | Republican | Republican |
| North Carolina 1st | Democrat | Democrat |
| North Carolina 2nd | Republican | Republican |
| North Carolina 3rd | Republican | Republican |
| North Carolina 4th | Democrat | Democrat |
| North Carolina 5th | Republican | Republican |
| North Carolina 6th | Republican | Republican |
| North Carolina 7th | Republican | Republican |
| North Carolina 8th | Republican | Republican |
| North Carolina 9th | Republican | Republican |
| North Carolina 10th | Republican | Republican |
| North Carolina 11th | Republican | Republican |
| North Carolina 12th | Democrat | Democrat |
| North Carolina 13th | Republican | Republican |
| North Dakota at large | Republican | Republican |
| Ohio 1st | Republican | Republican |
| Ohio 2nd | Republican | Republican |
| Ohio 3rd | Democrat | Democrat |
| Ohio 4th | Republican | Republican |
| Ohio 5th | Republican | Republican |
| Ohio 6th | Republican | Republican |
| Ohio 7th | Republican | Republican |
| Ohio 8th | Republican | Republican |
| Ohio 9th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Ohio 10th | Republican | Republican |
| Ohio 11th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Ohio 12th | Republican | Republican |
| Ohio 13th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Ohio 14th | Republican | Republican |
| Ohio 15th | Republican | Republican |
| Ohio 16th | Republican | Republican |
| Oklahoma 1st | Republican | Republican |
| Oklahoma 2nd | Republican | Republican |
| Oklahoma 3rd | Republican | Republican |
| Oklahoma 4th | Republican | Republican |
| Oklahoma 5th | Republican | Republican |
| Oregon 1st | Democrat | Democrat |
| Oregon 2nd | Republican | Republican |
| Oregon 3rd | Democrat | Democrat |
| Oregon 4th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Oregon 5th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Pennsylvania 1st | Democrat | Republican |
| Pennsylvania 2nd | Democrat | Democrat |
| Pennsylvania 3rd | Republican | Republican |
| Pennsylvania 4th | Republican | Republican |
| Pennsylvania 5th | Republican | Democrat |
| Pennsylvania 6th | Republican | Democrat |
| Pennsylvania 7th | Republican | Democrat |
| Pennsylvania 8th | Republican | Democrat |
| Pennsylvania 9th | Republican | Republican |
| Pennsylvania 10th | Republican | Republican |
| Pennsylvania 11th | Republican | Republican |
| Pennsylvania 12th | Republican | Republican |
| Pennsylvania 13th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Pennsylvania 14th | Democrat | Republican |
| Pennsylvania 15th | Republican | Republican |
| Pennsylvania 16th | Republican | Democrat |
| Pennsylvania 17th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Pennsylvania 18th | Republican | Democrat |
| Rhode Island 1st | Democrat | Democrat |
| Rhode Island 2nd | Democrat | Democrat |
| South Carolina 1st | Republican | Republican |
| South Carolina 2nd | Republican | Republican |
| South Carolina 3rd | Republican | Republican |
| South Carolina 4th | Republican | Republican |
| South Carolina 5th | Republican | Republican |
| South Carolina 6th | Democrat | Democrat |
| South Carolina 7th | Republican | Republican |
| South Dakota at large | Republican | Republican |
| Tennessee 1st | Republican | Republican |
| Tennessee 2nd | Republican | Republican |
| Tennessee 3rd | Republican | Republican |
| Tennessee 4th | Republican | Republican |
| Tennessee 5th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Tennessee 6th | Republican | Republican |
| Tennessee 7th | Republican | Republican |
| Tennessee 8th | Republican | Republican |
| Tennessee 9th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Texas 1st | Republican | Republican |
| Texas 2nd | Republican | Republican |
| Texas 3rd | Republican | Republican |
| Texas 4th | Republican | Republican |
| Texas 5th | Republican | Republican |
| Texas 6th | Republican | Republican |
| Texas 7th | Republican | Republican |
| Texas 8th | Republican | Republican |
| Texas 9th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Texas 10th | Republican | Republican |
| Texas 11th | Republican | Republican |
| Texas 12th | Republican | Republican |
| Texas 13th | Republican | Republican |
| Texas 14th | Republican | Republican |
| Texas 15th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Texas 16th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Texas 17th | Republican | Republican |
| Texas 18th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Texas 19th | Republican | Republican |
| Texas 20th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Texas 21st | Republican | Republican |
| Texas 22nd | Republican | Republican |
| Texas 23rd | Republican | Republican |
| Texas 24th | Republican | Republican |
| Texas 25th | Republican | Republican |
| Texas 26th | Republican | Republican |
| Texas 27th | Republican | Republican |
| Texas 28th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Texas 29th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Texas 30th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Texas 31st | Republican | Republican |
| Texas 32nd | Republican | Republican |
| Texas 33rd | Democrat | Democrat |
| Texas 34th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Texas 35th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Texas 36th | Republican | Republican |
| Utah 1st | Republican | Republican |
| Utah 2nd | Republican | Republican |
| Utah 3rd | Republican | Republican |
| Utah 4th | Republican | Democrat |
| Vermont at large | Democrat | Democrat |
| Virginia 1st | Republican | Republican |
| Virginia 2nd | Republican | Republican |
| Virginia 3rd | Democrat | Democrat |
| Virginia 4th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Virginia 5th | Republican | Republican |
| Virginia 6th | Republican | Republican |
| Virginia 7th | Republican | Democrat |
| Virginia 8th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Virginia 9th | Republican | Republican |
| Virginia 10th | Republican | Democrat |
| Virginia 11th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Washington 1st | Democrat | Democrat |
| Washington 2nd | Democrat | Democrat |
| Washington 3rd | Republican | Republican |
| Washington 4th | Republican | Republican |
| Washington 5th | Republican | Republican |
| Washington 6th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Washington 7th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Washington 8th | Republican | Republican |
| Washington 9th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Washington 10th | Democrat | Democrat |
| West Virginia 1st | Republican | Republican |
| West Virginia 2nd | Republican | Republican |
| West Virginia 3rd | Republican | Republican |
| Wisconsin 1st | Republican | Republican |
| Wisconsin 2nd | Democrat | Democrat |
| Wisconsin 3rd | Democrat | Democrat |
| Wisconsin 4th | Democrat | Democrat |
| Wisconsin 5th | Republican | Republican |
| Wisconsin 6th | Republican | Republican |
| Wisconsin 7th | Republican | Republican |
| Wisconsin 8th | Republican | Republican |
| Wyoming at large | Republican | Republican |
On these numbers the Democrats would win back the house 220:215, but that shows how tight this race will be and warns that the 'Blue Wave' may be little more than a ripple. Then again, this is a significant improvement in the Dems' chances with only partial fine-grained data. If more information was availible perhaps we would be looking at numbers in the mid 200s. While there is not impartial or mathematical way to justify this, my feeling is that the Dems will do a little better than 220, maybe somewhere in the 230s. It will not, however, be the cruching rejection of Trump-style Republicanism many are predicting.
TL;DR:
US data is very patchy and varies from state to state. As a result the prediction is a roughly-cobbled together mess that is significantly less reliable than I would wish.
What we do have predicts 220 house seats for the Democrats and 215 for the Republicans, enough to take back the house and hinder the Trump administration but not the resounding blow some on the left are wishing for.
My gut feeling is that more complete data would raise the Dem's seats into the 230s, but there is no impirical basis for this.
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