There are 36 gubernatorial elections in the US today, not counting the three races in the territories (Guam, US Virgin Islands and North Marianas Islands) where consistent and reliable polling is hard to come by. There are two reasons I am focussing on these elections. The first is the 'gubernatorial' is probably my favourite word in the English language. The second is that most governors elected in 2018 will be serving after the 2020 US census and will play an important role in authorising the electoral districts in some states, having a not insignificant input into the electoral results of the next decade.
The remaining Gubernatorial races will be held over the next three
years: Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi in 2019, Delaware, Indiana,
Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, Utah, Washington and
West Virginia in 2020, and New Jersey and Virginia in 2021. This year's
New Hampshire and Vermont results will also be replaced in 2020. This
means the prediciton at present for the 2020 redistribution (following this post) sits at 17
R, 17 D and 16 to be contested in later years. It is worth pointing out
that seven states (Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South
Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming) currently only get one house seat and thus
would not be redistricted at all (assuming the census does not change
this) and that about half of the states now handle redistribution
through theoretically apolitical bodies without gubernatorial influence.
Of the 36 elections, a good number are reasonably secure. Below are shown the median rankings of eight organisations media or political from Safe Republican to Safe Democrat. The median was calculated according to the same method employed in the senatorial races. The latest poll numbers are also included and again line up very well, with Nebraska the only state without polling in the last month and South Dakota the only anomaly. Margins are calculated as before and represented as the lead the Republicans have of the two-party vote (R/R+D -50%).
| State | Incumbent | Median Rating | Poll Margin | Dates | Rep | Dem |
| Alabama | Republican | Safe Republican | 16.2% | Sept 9-24 | 51 | 26 |
| Alaska | Independent | Lean Republican | 0.6% | Oct 26-29 | 43 | 42 |
| Arizona | Republican | Likely Republican | 7.9% | Nov 1-3 | 55 | 40 |
| Arkansas | Republican | Safe Republican | 12.8% | Oct 1-28 | 59 | 35 |
| California | Democrat | Safe Democrat | -10.4% | Nov 1-3 | 38 | 58 |
| Colorado | Democrat | Lean Democrat | -2.9% | Oct 29-30 | 40 | 45 |
| Connecticut | Democrat | Lean Democrat | -5.4% | Oct 30-Nov 1 | 37 | 46 |
| Florida | Republican | Tossup | -2.6% | Nov 3-4 | 45 | 50 |
| Georgia | Republican | Tossup | -2.1% | Oct 31-Nov 2 | 46 | 50 |
| Hawaii | Democrat | Safe Democrat | -12.7% | Oct 8-12 | 31 | 52 |
| Idaho | Republican | Safe Republican | 6.3% | Aug 2-5 | 36 | 28 |
| Illinois | Republican | Likely Democrat | -9.8% | Nov 1-3 | 33 | 49 |
| Iowa | Republican | Tossup | -1.1% | Oct 30-Nov 2 | 44 | 46 |
| Kansas | Republican | Tossup | -1.2% | Oct 17-27 | 41 | 43 |
| Maine | Republican | Tossup | -9.1% | Nov 1 | 38 | 55 |
| Maryland | Republican | Likely Republican | 10.4% | Oct 4-7 | 58 | 38 |
| Massachusetts | Republican | Safe Republican | 23.1% | Oct 25-28 | 68 | 25 |
| Michigan | Republican | Lean Democrat | -7.4% | Nov 4 | 40 | 54 |
| Minnesota | Democrat | Likely Democrat | -3.3% | Nov 1-3 | 42 | 48 |
| Nebraska | Republican | Safe Republican | ||||
| Nevada | Republican | Tossup | -0.5% | Nov 1-4 | 47 | 48 |
| New Hampshire | Republican | Lean Republican | 0.0% | Nov 1-4 | 46 | 46 |
| New Mexico | Republican | Lean Democrat | -5.2% | Oct 26-Nov 1 | 43 | 53 |
| New York | Democrat | Safe Democrat | -8.1% | Nov 1-3 | 39 | 54 |
| Ohio | Republican | Tossup | -2.7% | Nov 2-4 | 43 | 48 |
| Oklahoma | Republican | Lean Republican | 1.6% | Oct 31-Nov 3 | 47 | 44 |
| Oregon | Democrat | Lean Democrat | -1.7% | Oct 29-30 | 42 | 45 |
| Pennsylvania | Democrat | Likely Democrat | -5.8% | Nov 2-4 | 42 | 53 |
| Rhode Island | Democrat | Lean Democrat | -7.0% | Oct 20-24 | 34 | 45 |
| South Carolina | Republican | Safe Republican | 8.7% | Oct 29-31 | 54 | 38 |
| South Dakota | Republican | Lean Republican | -3.1% | Nov 2-4 | 45 | 51 |
| Tennessee | Republican | Likely Republican | 4.6% | Oct 28-31 | 53 | 44 |
| Texas | Republican | Safe Republican | 4.3% | Oct 28-30 | 51 | 43 |
| Vermont | Republican | Likely Republican | 5.7% | Ot 30-Nov 1 | 49 | 39 |
| Wisconsin | Republican | Tossup | -2.6% | Oct 29-31 | 46 | 51 |
| Wyoming | Republican | Safe Republican | 19.3% | Nov 2-4 | 61 | 27 |
Any 'Safe' seat or recent poll of over 5% is considered to be resolved at this point to allow us to focus on the tighter races.
| State | Incumbent | Prediction |
| Alabama | Republican | Republican |
| Alaska | Independent | TBC |
| Arizona | Republican | Republican |
| Arkansas | Republican | Republican |
| California | Democrat | Democrat |
| Colorado | Democrat | TBC |
| Connecticut | Democrat | Democrat |
| Florida | Republican | TBC |
| Georgia | Republican | TBC |
| Hawaii | Democrat | Democrat |
| Idaho | Republican | Republican |
| Illinois | Republican | Democrat |
| Iowa | Republican | TBC |
| Kansas | Republican | TBC |
| Maine | Republican | Democrat |
| Maryland | Republican | Republican |
| Massachusetts | Republican | Republican |
| Michigan | Republican | Democrat |
| Minnesota | Democrat | TBC |
| Nebraska | Republican | Republican |
| Nevada | Republican | TBC |
| New Hampshire | Republican | TBC |
| New Mexico | Republican | Democrat |
| New York | Democrat | Democrat |
| Ohio | Republican | TBC |
| Oklahoma | Republican | TBC |
| Oregon | Democrat | TBC |
| Pennsylvania | Democrat | Democrat |
| Rhode Island | Democrat | Democrat |
| South Carolina | Republican | Republican |
| South Dakota | Republican | TBC |
| Tennessee | Republican | TBC |
| Texas | Republican | Republican |
| Vermont | Republican | Republican |
| Wisconsin | Republican | TBC |
| Wyoming | Republican | Republican |
Alaska
Alaska had an Independent governor, Bill Walker, who was seeking re-election until dropping out last month. Alaska has had four polls since that point, all favouring the Republican party although this margin has been narrowing. Data from before Walker's step back have been ignored below as unrepresentative of the current situation.| Alaska | Rep | Dem | Margin |
| Oct 1-6 | 55 | 41 | 7.3% |
| Oct 12-14 | 52 | 45 | 3.6% |
| Oct 19-22 | 48 | 44 | 2.2% |
| Oct 26-29 | 43 | 42 | 0.6% |
Before Walker, Alaska had three Republican governors in a row dating back to the 2002 election, most famously Vice-Presidential candidate Sarah Palin. In addition to this, the median rating for the Alaskan race is Lean Republican, with six of the 8 sources hinting at a Republican lead and two putting it as a tossup.
Prediction: Republican Gain
Colorado
Four of Colorado's last 5 governors since the mid-70s have been Democrats, including the incumbent who is term-limited and not running in 2018. Only three polls were conducted last month, but all three predict a narrow Democrat lead.| Colorado | Rep | Dem | Margin |
| Oct 8-10 | 40 | 47 | -4.0% |
| Oct 25-30 | 42 | 50 | -4.3% |
| Oct 29-30 | 40 | 45 | -2.9% |
Colorado is rated to lean to the Democrats by 7 sources and the eighth, FiveThirtyEight, Considers it a safe seat for the same party.
Prediction: Democrat Retain
Florida
Florida has a recent history of Republican governors, starting with Presidential Candidate, Son and Brother Jeb Bush in 1999, then Charlie Crist who became an Independent, and now incumbent term-limited Republican Rick Scott. Before this, however, the state only had two Republicans in the 31 governors and 122 years since 1877, so this is definitely a recent trend. Polling is suggesting a return to form with only three of the 32 polls this month favouring the Republicans and only by slim margins.| Florida | Rep | Dem | Margin |
| Oct 15-16 | 46 | 47 | -0.5% |
| Oct 14-18 | 48 | 45 | 1.6% |
| Oct 16-20 | 42 | 54 | -6.3% |
| Oct 17-20 | 42 | 48 | -3.3% |
| Oct 17-21 | 46 | 52 | -3.1% |
| Oct 18-21 | 42 | 49 | -3.8% |
| Oct 18-21 | 37 | 41 | -2.6% |
| Oct 20-21 | 46 | 47 | -0.5% |
| Oct 16-22 | 37 | 49 | -7.0% |
| Oct 16-23 | 48 | 45 | 1.6% |
| Oct 22-23 | 46 | 51 | -2.6% |
| Oct 17-25 | 44 | 50 | -3.2% |
| Oct 23-26 | 46 | 47 | -0.5% |
| Oct 23-26 | 43 | 49 | -3.3% |
| Oct 23-27 | 43 | 48 | -2.7% |
| Oct 25-28 | 44 | 45 | -0.6% |
| Oct 24-29 | 48 | 49 | -0.5% |
| Oct 27-29 | 47 | 47 | 0.0% |
| Oct 24-30 | 42 | 44 | -1.2% |
| Oct 27-30 | 47 | 53 | -3.0% |
| Oct 29-30 | 46 | 48 | -1.1% |
| Oct 28-31 | 48 | 47 | 0.5% |
| Oct 29-31 | 43 | 50 | -3.8% |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 45 | 50 | -2.6% |
| Oct 29-Nov 2 | 47 | 48 | -0.5% |
| Oct 30-Nov 2 | 46 | 50 | -2.1% |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 45 | 50 | -2.6% |
| Nov 1-2 | 46 | 48 | -1.1% |
| Nov 1-3 | 46 | 49 | -1.6% |
| Nov 1-3 | 46 | 51 | -2.6% |
| Oct 29-Nov 4 | 43 | 50 | -3.8% |
| Nov 3-4 | 45 | 50 | -2.6% |
Although only two rating groups suggested this race would not be a tossup, I find myself agreeing with the other two who proposed some level of Democrat advantage in the state.
Prediction: Democrat Gain
Georgia
A new poll has come out since I began my analysis that puts Georgia in Republican hands by more than 5%. This poll, however, is something of an anomaly, as while the majority of surveys last month suggested a Republican advantage they were consistently by tiny margins of 1.1% or less.| Georgia | Rep | Dem | Margin |
| Oct 5-6 | 46 | 46 | 0.0% |
| Oct 3-8 | 47 | 45 | 1.1% |
| Sept 30-Oct 9 | 48 | 46 | 1.1% |
| Oct 4-11 | 47 | 46 | 0.5% |
| Oct 14-18 | 46 | 45 | 0.5% |
| Oct 21-22 | 48 | 48 | 0.0% |
| Oct 28-29 | 47 | 48 | -0.5% |
| Oct 21-30 | 47 | 47 | 0.0% |
| Oct 27-30 | 49 | 47 | 1.0% |
| Oct 29-31 | 49 | 47 | 1.0% |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 46 | 50 | -2.1% |
| Oct 30-Nov 3 | 52 | 40 | 6.5% |
The Republican incumbent, Nathan Deal, is term-limited. His predecessor was also a Republican, although the 39 before that stretching back to 1872 were all Dems including former president Jimmy Carter. (N.B. these 39 do not count the two terms of Herman Talmadge, the three terms of Eugene Talmadge, the two terms of John Slatton, the two terms of Joseph Brown or the two terms of Hoke Smith as separate governors; this would raise the number of Democrats to 45).
Prediction: Republican Retain
Iowa
Iowa has a recent mixed history, a tossup ranking by every source but one very minor 'Tilt Democrat' by Inside Elections, an incumbent Republican seeking re-election and a polling history that is short, marginal and inconclusive.| Iowa | Rep | Dem | Margin |
| Oct 8-22 | 40 | 44 | -2.4% |
| Oct 29-Nov 1 | 49 | 45 | 2.1% |
| Oct 30-Nov 2 | 44 | 46 | -1.1% |
I honestly have no idea what to do with this data and would love to give this a tossup rating, but if my hand is forced, I'll gamble on an upset and suggest a Democrat win just to be controversial. I have no confidence in this prediction whatsoever.
Prediction: Democrat Gain, but dubious
Kansas
Kansas has a mixed history of Red and Blue, and the current Republican governor lost his primary bid to run again. Polling is scant with one result either way.| Kansas | Rep | Dem | Margin |
| Oct 17-27 | 41 | 43 | -1.2% |
| Oct 26-28 | 44 | 43 | 0.6% |
Politico was the only rating group willing to touch this state with a 'Lean Republican' rating. I commend their bravery as I want to leave this a tossup, but now have a scapegoat when I inevitably must make my prediction.
Prediction: Republican Retain, but dubious
Minnesota
Incumbent Democrat Mark Dayton is retiring, and his trail of predecessors tell us very little about this state's nature. Polling is consistent, if scarce, with the Democrat margin widening over time.| Minnestoa | Rep | Dem | Margin |
| Oct 12-13 | 44 | 47 | -1.6% |
| Oct 15-17 | 39 | 45 | -3.6% |
| Oct 29-30 | 41 | 49 | -4.4% |
Every rating on Minnesota has it Leaning or Likely Democrat, and I concur. This was one of two states with a median of 'Likely' not called at the start (the other being Tennessee for the Republicans), and further examination has supported that conclusion.
Prediction: Democrat Retain
Nevada
Republican incumbent Brian Sandoval is term-limited. All three governors this century have been Republican, but the mixed polling is hinting at a return to the state's history of fluid governorship.| Nevada | Rep | Dem | Margin |
| Oct 8-10 | 46 | 45 | 0.5% |
| Oct 10-12 | 46 | 41 | 2.9% |
| Oct 13-15 | 48 | 52 | -2.0% |
| Oct 12-19 | 46 | 41 | 2.9% |
| Oct 24-26 | 44 | 46 | -1.1% |
| Oct 24-29 | 45 | 46 | -0.5% |
| Oct 24-30 | 43 | 45 | -1.1% |
| Oct 29-31 | 45 | 45 | 0.0% |
| Oct 29-Nov 1 | 47 | 45 | 1.1% |
| Oct 30-Nov 1 | 46 | 43 | 1.7% |
| Oct 31-Nov 2 | 47 | 43 | 2.2% |
| Nov 1-3 | 45 | 44 | 0.6% |
| Nov 1-4 | 47 | 48 | -0.5% |
Inside Elections has very slightly supported the Democrats here, and everyone else has taken a step back. I too have no confidence in any predictions in Nevada, but the Republicans have won more polls and with larger margins, making the average of this months polls 0.5% for the Republicans. I will respectfully divert from IE's suggestion and predict the Republicans' success here with no confidence at all.
Prediction: Republican Retain, but dubious
New Hampshire
Chris Sununu is running again as the Republican candidate and incumbent. Although the state has had a few Democrats in office lately, it is historically red. Ratings from all 8 sources support Sununu's return, as does the polling although his lead is closing.| New Hampshire | Rep | Dem | Margin |
| Oct 10-12 | 51 | 35 | 9.3% |
| Oct 10-15 | 49 | 39 | 5.7% |
| Oct 10-18 | 50 | 39 | 6.2% |
| Oct 27-29 | 51 | 43 | 4.3% |
| Oct 27-29 | 47 | 46 | 0.5% |
| Nov 1-4 | 46 | 46 | 0.0% |
Prediction: Republican Retain
Ohio
John Kasich, former Fox presenter and Presidential contender, is the Republican term-limited incumbent. Previous governors come from both parties, though a Republican lean in the last few decades is evident. Polling in Ohio suggests this may change. In both 'tied' polls, however, the Republicans had a very slight lead erased by the rounding of the numbers.| Ohio | Rep | Dem | Margin |
| 'Sep 28-Oct 8 | 40 | 37 | 1.9% |
| 'Oct 4-8 | 40 | 46 | -3.5% |
| 'Oct 19-27 | 39 | 39 | 0.0% |
| 'Oct 26-28 | 46 | 49 | -1.6% |
| 'Oct 29-30 | 43 | 48 | -2.7% |
| 'Oct 30-31 | 43 | 43 | 0.0% |
| 'Nov 2-4 | 43 | 48 | -2.7% |
No rating group is willing to put any opinion forward on Ohio. On the polling alone I have to prefer the chances of the Dems over the Republicans, but it's very speculative.
Prediction: Democrat Gain, but dubious
Oklahoma
Republican incumbent Mary Fallin is term-limited, and since the 70s the state has alternated without wail between the two major parties (although before the 60s no Republican had held governorship). Polling suggests this pattern is about to be broken, though the Republican margin is weakening.| Oklahoma | Rep | Dem | Margin |
| Oct 22-23 | 51 | 44 | 3.7% |
| Oct 23-25 | 46 | 42 | 2.3% |
| Oct 31-Nov 3 | 47 | 44 | 1.6% |
All but one rating has some colour of support for Republicans in this race, and I agree.
Prediction: Republican Retain
Oregon
Oregon hasn't had a Republican governor since 1987, and Democratic incumbent Kate Brown will seek to continue that trend Today. Polling suggests she's on track to do so.| Oregon | Rep | Dem | Margin |
| Sept 24-Oct 7 | 45 | 49 | -2.1% |
| Oct 4-11 | 35 | 40 | -3.3% |
| Oct 26-28 | 42 | 47 | -2.8% |
| Oct 29-30 | 42 | 45 | -1.7% |
The median rating for Oregon is a lean to the Democrats, though individually there is quite a spread from Tossup to Likely.
Prediction: Democrat Retain
South Dakota
Term-limited Dennis Daugaard is the fifth in an unbroken line of Republican South Dakotan governors since 1987 (or sixth if you count Bill Janklow twice). Polling is mixed...| South Dakota | Rep | Dem | Margin |
| Oct 18-22 | 45 | 45 | 0.0% |
| Oct 29-31 | 47 | 44 | 1.6% |
| Nov 1-4 | 48 | 47 | 0.5% |
| Nov 2-4 | 45 | 51 | -3.1% |
... but the ratings vary from Tossup to Likely Republican, with a median of Lean, suggesting Kristi Noem will continue this pattern.
Prediction: Republican Retain
Tennessee
Bill Haslam is a term-limited Republican and the latest in the pattern of Democrat-Republican-Democrat-Republican governors that began with Buford Ellington in 1967. Polling seems to suggest that pattern is in grave danger, with a Republican win imminent.| Tennessee | Rep | Dem | Margin |
| Oct 8-11 | 59 | 33 | 14.1% |
| Oct 9-12 | 56 | 44 | 6.0% |
| Oct 23-27 | 57 | 40 | 8.8% |
| Oct 26-27 | 59 | 36 | 12.1% |
| Oct 22-29 | 48 | 36 | 7.1% |
| Oct 24-29 | 52 | 42 | 5.3% |
| Oct 27-29 | 56 | 44 | 6.0% |
| Oct 27-30 | 54 | 37 | 9.3% |
| Oct 28-30 | 54 | 41 | 6.8% |
| Oct 28-31 | 53 | 44 | 4.6% |
Tennessee only missed out on being called earlier by the rounding of the median ranking; with four Likely and four Safe Republican ratings, it was reduced to a 'Likely' for safety. There seems little doubt which way the governorship will go, though.
Prediction: Republican Retain
Wisconsin
Despite a general Republican lean in the state's history, the Democrats have won a few times. Incumbent Republican Scott Walker may be in trouble on the latest polling.| Wisconsin | Rep | Dem | Margin |
| Oct 3-7 | 47 | 46 | 0.5% |
| Oct 12-18 | 45 | 48 | -1.6% |
| Oct 24-48 | 47 | 47 | 0.0% |
| Oct 29-31 | 46 | 51 | -2.6% |
FiveThirtyEight and Fox News have rated this seat to lean Democrat, though no one else has ventured an opinion.
Prediction: Democrat Gain, but dubious
Final Prediction
| State | Incumbent | Prediction |
| Alabama | Republican | Republican |
| Alaska | Independent | Republican |
| Arizona | Republican | Republican |
| Arkansas | Republican | Republican |
| California | Democrat | Democrat |
| Colorado | Democrat | Democrat |
| Connecticut | Democrat | Democrat |
| Florida | Republican | Democrat |
| Georgia | Republican | Republican |
| Hawaii | Democrat | Democrat |
| Idaho | Republican | Republican |
| Illinois | Republican | Democrat |
| Iowa | Republican | Democrat |
| Kansas | Republican | Republican |
| Maine | Republican | Democrat |
| Maryland | Republican | Republican |
| Massachusetts | Republican | Republican |
| Michigan | Republican | Democrat |
| Minnesota | Democrat | Democrat |
| Nebraska | Republican | Republican |
| Nevada | Republican | Republican |
| New Hampshire | Republican | Republican |
| New Mexico | Republican | Democrat |
| New York | Democrat | Democrat |
| Ohio | Republican | Democrat |
| Oklahoma | Republican | Republican |
| Oregon | Democrat | Democrat |
| Pennsylvania | Democrat | Democrat |
| Rhode Island | Democrat | Democrat |
| South Carolina | Republican | Republican |
| South Dakota | Republican | Republican |
| Tennessee | Republican | Republican |
| Texas | Republican | Republican |
| Vermont | Republican | Republican |
| Wisconsin | Republican | Democrat |
| Wyoming | Republican | Republican |
This prediction has 19 Republican governors and 17 Democrats, a net loss of 7 governorships for the Republicans despite picking up Alaska from a retiring independent. Nation-wide this would leave the United States with 26 Republican states and 24 Democrats, far closer than the current 33:16 split.
(Gubernatorial)
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