The Victorian Legislative Assembly has 88 seats. All but seven of these came down to a Labor-Liberal or Labor-National contest in 2014, and the boundaries have not been adjusted since before then. These two-party results are represented below as the 'ALP margin': The more positive, the more Labor won the seat by in 2014, the more negative, the more the Coalition won by.
| Seat | ALP Margin | 4.0% Swing |
| Albert Park | 3.0% | 7.0% |
| Altona | 12.6% | 16.6% |
| Bass | -4.6% | -0.6% |
| Bayswater | -4.6% | -0.6% |
| Bellarine | 4.8% | 8.8% |
| Benambra | -9.7% | -5.7% |
| Bendigo East | 5.0% | 9.0% |
| Bendigo West | 12.2% | 16.2% |
| Bentleigh | 0.8% | 4.8% |
| Box Hill | -5.7% | -1.7% |
| Brighton | -9.8% | -5.8% |
| Broadmeadows | 27.8% | 31.8% |
| Brunswick | ||
| Bulleen | -10.6% | -6.6% |
| Bundoora | 12.2% | 16.2% |
| Buninyong | 6.4% | 10.4% |
| Burwood | -3.2% | 0.8% |
| Carrum | 0.7% | 4.7% |
| Caulfield | -4.9% | -0.9% |
| Clarinda | 15.8% | 19.8% |
| Cranbourne | 2.3% | 6.3% |
| Croydon | -9.3% | -5.3% |
| Dandenong | 12.9% | 16.9% |
| Eildon | -3.8% | 0.2% |
| Eltham | 2.7% | 6.7% |
| Essendon | 8.7% | 12.7% |
| Euroa | -14.5% | -10.5% |
| Evelyn | -9.6% | -5.6% |
| Ferntree Gully | -7.8% | -3.8% |
| Footscray | 14.5% | 18.5% |
| Forest Hill | -4.8% | -0.8% |
| Frankston | 0.5% | 4.5% |
| Geelong | 6.0% | 10.0% |
| Gembrook | -9.0% | -5.0% |
| Gippsland East | -17.9% | -13.9% |
| Gippsland South | -15.7% | -11.7% |
| Hastings | -7.6% | -3.6% |
| Hawthorn | -8.6% | -4.6% |
| Ivanhoe | 3.4% | 7.4% |
| Kew | -10.6% | -6.6% |
| Keysborough | 11.9% | 15.9% |
| Kororoit | 20.0% | 24.0% |
| Lara | 17.1% | 21.1% |
| Lowan | -21.3% | -17.3% |
| Macedon | 3.8% | 7.8% |
| Malvern | -16.3% | -12.3% |
| Melbourne | ||
| Melton | 11.2% | 15.2% |
| Mildura | ||
| Mill Park | 19.9% | 23.9% |
| Monbulk | 5.0% | 9.0% |
| Mordialloc | 2.1% | 6.1% |
| Mornington | -12.6% | -8.6% |
| Morwell | -1.8% | 2.2% |
| Mount Waverley | -4.6% | -0.6% |
| Mulgrave | 4.5% | 8.5% |
| Murray Plains | -22.4% | -18.4% |
| Narracan | -11.3% | -7.3% |
| Narre Warren North | 4.6% | 8.6% |
| Narre Warren South | 5.5% | 9.5% |
| Nepean | -7.6% | -3.6% |
| Niddrie | 7.7% | 11.7% |
| Northcote | ||
| Oakleigh | 8.2% | 12.2% |
| Ovens Valley | -16.6% | -12.6% |
| Pascoe Vale | 16.8% | 20.8% |
| Polwarth | -10.6% | -6.6% |
| Prahran | ||
| Preston | 24.7% | 28.7% |
| Richmond | ||
| Ringwood | -5.1% | -1.1% |
| Ripon | -0.8% | 3.2% |
| Rowville | -8.4% | -4.4% |
| Sandringham | -7.3% | -3.3% |
| Shepparton | ||
| South Barwon | -2.9% | 1.1% |
| South-West Coast | -11.0% | -7.0% |
| St Albans | 17.5% | 21.5% |
| Sunbury | 4.3% | 8.3% |
| Sydenham | 16.3% | 20.3% |
| Tarneit | 14.6% | 18.6% |
| Thomastown | 28.4% | 32.4% |
| Warrandyte | -11.6% | -7.6% |
| Wendouree | 5.8% | 9.8% |
| Werribee | 15.7% | 19.7% |
| Williamstown | 16.5% | 20.5% |
| Yan Yean | 3.7% | 7.7% |
| Yuroke | 18.5% | 22.5% |
The ALP received 52.0% of the two-party vote in 2014, while the latest polling has them at 56.0%. This is a 4% swing to Labor, which is applied above to calculate where seats would fall if this swing were universal and consistent. Though this does not represent the reality, it is the only way I have at present of applying the polling data. The results form the basis of the following predictions.
| Seat | Prediction |
| Albert Park | ALP |
| Altona | ALP |
| Bass | LIB |
| Bayswater | LIB |
| Bellarine | ALP |
| Benambra | LIB |
| Bendigo East | ALP |
| Bendigo West | ALP |
| Bentleigh | ALP |
| Box Hill | LIB |
| Brighton | LIB |
| Broadmeadows | ALP |
| Brunswick | |
| Bulleen | LIB |
| Bundoora | ALP |
| Buninyong | ALP |
| Burwood | ALP |
| Carrum | ALP |
| Caulfield | LIB |
| Clarinda | ALP |
| Cranbourne | ALP |
| Croydon | LIB |
| Dandenong | ALP |
| Eildon | ALP |
| Eltham | ALP |
| Essendon | ALP |
| Euroa | NAT |
| Evelyn | LIB |
| Ferntree Gully | LIB |
| Footscray | ALP |
| Forest Hill | LIB |
| Frankston | ALP |
| Geelong | ALP |
| Gembrook | LIB |
| Gippsland East | NAT |
| Gippsland South | NAT |
| Hastings | LIB |
| Hawthorn | LIB |
| Ivanhoe | ALP |
| Kew | LIB |
| Keysborough | ALP |
| Kororoit | ALP |
| Lara | ALP |
| Lowan | NAT |
| Macedon | ALP |
| Malvern | LIB |
| Melbourne | |
| Melton | ALP |
| Mildura | |
| Mill Park | ALP |
| Monbulk | ALP |
| Mordialloc | ALP |
| Mornington | LIB |
| Morwell | ALP |
| Mount Waverley | LIB |
| Mulgrave | ALP |
| Murray Plains | NAT |
| Narracan | LIB |
| Narre Warren North | ALP |
| Narre Warren South | ALP |
| Nepean | LIB |
| Niddrie | ALP |
| Northcote | |
| Oakleigh | ALP |
| Ovens Valley | NAT |
| Pascoe Vale | ALP |
| Polwarth | LIB |
| Prahran | |
| Preston | ALP |
| Richmond | |
| Ringwood | LIB |
| Ripon | ALP |
| Rowville | LIB |
| Sandringham | LIB |
| Shepparton | IND |
| South Barwon | ALP |
| South-West Coast | LIB |
| St Albans | ALP |
| Sunbury | ALP |
| Sydenham | ALP |
| Tarneit | ALP |
| Thomastown | ALP |
| Warrandyte | LIB |
| Wendouree | ALP |
| Werribee | ALP |
| Williamstown | ALP |
| Yan Yean | ALP |
| Yuroke | ALP |
Five of the remaining seats had the Greens in the final count. A swing in these seats is taken by comparing the percentage of the primary vote the winning party gained of the total votes between the two parties (2014 % = Incumbent2014/(Incumbent2014 + Second2014) * 100%) with the same value based on the latest polling (Polling % = IncumbentPoll/(IncumbentPoll +SecondPoll ) * 100%). In other words, Swing = Polling % - 2014 %.
This swing in percentage points is added to the incumbent's margin to give the prediction below.
| Seat | Incumbent | Margin | 2014 Result | Polling Result | Second Party | 2014 Result | Polling Result | 2014 % | Polling % | Swing | Prediction | |
| Brunswick | ALP | 2.2% | 38.1% | 40.4% | GRN | 11.5% | 10.3% | 76.8% | 79.7% | 2.9% | 5.1% | ALP |
| Melbourne | GRN | 2.4% | 11.5% | 10.3% | ALP | 38.1% | 40.4% | 23.2% | 20.3% | -2.9% | -0.5% | ALP |
| Northcote | GRN | 5.6% | 11.5% | 10.3% | ALP | 38.1% | 40.4% | 23.2% | 20.3% | -2.9% | 2.7% | GRN |
| Prahran | GRN | 0.4% | 11.5% | 10.3% | LIB* | 42.0% | 36.8% | 21.5% | 21.9% | 0.4% | 0.8% | GRN |
| Richmond | ALP | 1.9% | 38.1% | 40.4% | GRN | 11.5% | 10.3% | 76.8% | 79.7% | 2.9% | 4.8% | ALP |
The remaining two seats are Mildura and Shepparton, both contested in 2014 between the Nationals and an Independent. Mildura was won by the Nationals against Ali Cupper who is running again. By the time the Nationals had reached 52% in the count, Cupper was at 28% -- an impressive result for an independent, but not enough to make the Nationals anything but the favourite to win.
In Shepparton, Independent Suzanna Sheed outpolled everyone else in 2014, taking the seat from Nationals' control for the first time since its 1967 reincarnation. She is also running again, with greater name recognition.
I have awarded both of these seats in my final prediction to their current incumbents.
| Seat | Prediction |
| Albert Park | ALP |
| Altona | ALP |
| Bass | LIB |
| Bayswater | LIB |
| Bellarine | ALP |
| Benambra | LIB |
| Bendigo East | ALP |
| Bendigo West | ALP |
| Bentleigh | ALP |
| Box Hill | LIB |
| Brighton | LIB |
| Broadmeadows | ALP |
| Brunswick | ALP |
| Bulleen | LIB |
| Bundoora | ALP |
| Buninyong | ALP |
| Burwood | ALP |
| Carrum | ALP |
| Caulfield | LIB |
| Clarinda | ALP |
| Cranbourne | ALP |
| Croydon | LIB |
| Dandenong | ALP |
| Eildon | ALP |
| Eltham | ALP |
| Essendon | ALP |
| Euroa | NAT |
| Evelyn | LIB |
| Ferntree Gully | LIB |
| Footscray | ALP |
| Forest Hill | LIB |
| Frankston | ALP |
| Geelong | ALP |
| Gembrook | LIB |
| Gippsland East | NAT |
| Gippsland South | NAT |
| Hastings | LIB |
| Hawthorn | LIB |
| Ivanhoe | ALP |
| Kew | LIB |
| Keysborough | ALP |
| Kororoit | ALP |
| Lara | ALP |
| Lowan | NAT |
| Macedon | ALP |
| Malvern | LIB |
| Melbourne | ALP |
| Melton | ALP |
| Mildura | NAT |
| Mill Park | ALP |
| Monbulk | ALP |
| Mordialloc | ALP |
| Mornington | LIB |
| Morwell | ALP |
| Mount Waverley | LIB |
| Mulgrave | ALP |
| Murray Plains | NAT |
| Narracan | LIB |
| Narre Warren North | ALP |
| Narre Warren South | ALP |
| Nepean | LIB |
| Niddrie | ALP |
| Northcote | GRN |
| Oakleigh | ALP |
| Ovens Valley | NAT |
| Pascoe Vale | ALP |
| Polwarth | LIB |
| Prahran | GRN |
| Preston | ALP |
| Richmond | ALP |
| Ringwood | LIB |
| Ripon | ALP |
| Rowville | LIB |
| Sandringham | LIB |
| Shepparton | IND |
| South Barwon | ALP |
| South-West Coast | LIB |
| St Albans | ALP |
| Sunbury | ALP |
| Sydenham | ALP |
| Tarneit | ALP |
| Thomastown | ALP |
| Warrandyte | LIB |
| Wendouree | ALP |
| Werribee | ALP |
| Williamstown | ALP |
| Yan Yean | ALP |
| Yuroke | ALP |
This gives Labor a clear majority with 52 seats of a required 45.
I have some personal reservations about this prediction that cannot be quantified. I feel that Melbourne's left-leaning demographic, Greens federal and state representatives and focus of Greens campaigning will see a stemming and perhaps reversal in the seat of the state-wide decline in Greens support. Therefore, I would expect Melbourne to stay with the Greens. Prahran will depend entirely on whether the ALP outpolls the Greens in a three-way race, though I do not expect the Liberal Party to win this seat. Effective sandbagging will probably also hold of some of the predicted ALP gains, particularly in Morwell and Ripon. These observations are not empirical, however, and are not reflected in the prediction above.
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