Tuesday, 5 January 2021

Just Peachy

And here we are, two months later, with the USA election final! The two Georgia run-offs are here at last to decide if the Republicans can hold onto the Senate majority, or if they lose the Senate, the House and the Presidency to the Democrats in the wake of the Trump regime.

Georgia famously flipped blue in November, so that’s got to be promising for the Democrats, right? Well, not necessarily. While the presidential campaign saw Biden win Georgia by 11,779 votes or 0.2% of the voting public (whatever the incumbent may claim), the Senate races panned out differently.

In the general election, Republican David Perdue received 49.7% of votes, beating Democrat Jon Ossoff’s 47.9%. Similarly in the special election, while Democrat Raphael Warnock won more votes than Republican Kelly Loeffler, Democrats across the broad field picked up 48.4% of votes while Republicans took 49.4%. Assuming the votes fall along the same party divisions as November, and voters for third parties and independents don’t vote at all, the Republicans would win both races. The Dems, therefore, have been fighting an uphill battle.

Most polling now has the Democrats ahead, but in a contentious and voluntary vote that has led us astray before.

Advantages for Republicans

The Republicans have several advantages tomorrow they didn’t have in November. With Trump absent from the ticket, they are likely to pull in a number of Republicans who had previously been put off by Trump. They’ll also face a deflated Democratic force which can no longer rely on people turning out to beat Trump. I’d consider these Moderate draws.

Republicans can also appeal to a middle section of the community which Trump had previously put off by arguing that even if you aren’t Democrat or Republican, you have an interest in keeping a balance in DC by preventing one party (i.e. the Democrats) from holding Congress, the Senate and the White House unchecked to pass any agenda they like. This is also a Moderate advantage.

It is also a long-accepted fact that lower turnouts favour Republicans, as the least likely to vote groups tend to be minority groups who heavily favour the Democrats. Both COVID-19 and fatigue with the electoral process may result in a low turnout which will hurt the Dems more than the GOP. This should only be a Minor issue, especially compared to the November results where these factors were already in play

Finally, for the Republicans who DO like Trump, candidates Perdue and Loeffler have done plenty to align with the outgoing President, including casting doubt over the integrity of the electoral process. These are two Trumpian candidates who should play well to Trump loyalists, but their sincerity is dubious and many see this as playing politics rather than possession by the ghost of Donald Trump making this only a Minor factor.

Advantages for Democrats

The Trump-esque moves of the Republican candidates is a two-edged sword that may give some Republicans pause before voting, and give some fire to anti-Trump voters. This is only a Minor consideration compared to the fact that Trump is now absent from the ticket.

Trump’s own behaviour has also given anti-Trump voters motivation over the last couple of months, with news breaking this week that the incumbent President has been putting pressure on Georgia’s Republican officials to alter the election results. This is probably not changing anyone’s minds about Trump this late in the game, but may give a Minor boost to the Dems.

There is also the motivation of taking the Senate to give the Democrats a clean sweep to pass their legislative agenda. This is a Moderate motivator for Democrats.

The Democratic campaign has also been focusing on maximising turnout and in particular getting first-time voters to the polls. One has to doubt there are many people who didn’t vote in November suddenly keen to vote in January, but registration drives and perhaps the addition of voters who came-of-age in December may provide another Minor boost to the Dems.

Finally, the Democrats may be getting some comfort from an unlikely corner—Trump fanatics. With Trump not running, party-agnostic Trump voters may not bother to turn up to vote, suppressing the Republican votes. Additionally, the large number (8 in 10 by some reports) of Trump voters who believe that electoral fraud occurred in November may now feel there is no point in voting. These could even be a Moderate influence on the results.

Polls and Predictions

It is unlikely that the two races will be substantially different from each other. There will be some differences, for sure, but by and large those enthused enough to vote for one party in one of these elections can be counted on to support the same party in the other while they’re there.

While both sides have a couple of moderate draws, I can’t help but feel the Republican motivations are the stronger, resulting in a stronger red force than in November when, recall, the senate votes for Republicans already beat those for Democrats. This should not be a surprise in a Deep South state like Georgia, of course.

The polls, however, suggest otherwise. FiveThirtyEight has Ossoff and Warnock increasing their results by 5.8 and 3.1 percentage points respectively, putting both ahead from their November starting points. Even without the adjustments that site performs, Democrats led the majority of polls considered.

For once I am not going to follow the numbers. Anyone can reach digits and run calculations, but this time I’m giving some space for political analysis. The Republicans greatest pulls are opening the door for never-Trump Republicans and an argument that losing the Senate gives the Democrats unrestrained power. The Democrats best arguments are that they can finally get things done with all three levels of legislative/executive government under their control and that Trump loyalists will not bother/trust the process enough to turn up. I think on these fronts the Republicans have more to lose and the greater force—the power of fear. After years of gridlock, an obstructed legislative may look more comforting than a single-party, coordinated machine.

Therefore, against the polling and avoiding the caution of articles claiming it too close to call, I suspect that both races will be won by the Republicans.

Monday, 2 November 2020

E Pluribus

And finally, the US House of Representatives. There are 435 of these to predict, so I won't waste time. Tabulated data is provided in a supplementary post for those who wish to play with it for yourselves.

A number of these races have polling. I have used the most recent, likely voter polls from 2020 in these races and multiplied the results by a factor so that Republican + Democrat = 100%, then represented as the Republican share (thus Arizona 1's result of 46.20% indicates 53.80% support for the Democratic candidate). Races where candidates are uncontested or at least have no opposition from the other major party are also factored in here, but marked by party name rather than as a polling value.


There are also plenty of seats that are foregone conclusions so no-one wastes resources conducting polling there. I've decided on a very safe margin where seats are called when the 2018 vote is at least 60:40 in favour of the incumbent:

This fills in a lot of gaps, probably as a result of rampant Gerrymandering in a number of states.

In a third pass, we approximate a swing and apply it to outstanding districts. The swing is calculated for a district as 2020 polling - 2018 result. Therefore in Arizona 6, the swing is 47.67% - 55.20% = -7.53 (or a 7.53 percentage point swing away from the Republicans).

These swings have been averaged for the states as a whole, then applied to remaining districts as an approximation of the localised swing. In the example of Arizona 6 above, this is the only assessable district, so the Arizona swing is assumed at -7.53 below. The other averages are:

Arkansas: -3.22; California: 4.11; Colorado: -4.73; Florida: -0.09; Georgia: -1.48; Illinois: 9.44; Indiana: -10.82; Michigan: -10.09; Minnesota: -0.07; New Jersey: 3.96; New York: -0.97; North Carolina: -6.10; Ohio: -3.04; Pennsylvania: 0.69; South Carolina: 1.79; Texas: -2.25; Virginia: -4.38; Washington: -1.66; and Wisconsin: -0.66.

11 Districts remain unaccounted for and are the tossups, but for the sake of completeness:

Arkansas 2 has polling split 50:50 and was a solid Dem seat until a sudden flip in 2010. I'm going to take a gamble and predict a D Gain

Connecticut 5 has been blue since '07 and isn't likely to flip after this divisive campaign. D Hold

Missouri 2 has only been blue once since 1987. Clinton couldn't flip it. Obama couldn't flip it. I doubt Biden will do better. R Hold

Nevada 2 has always been Red. R Hold

Nevada 3 and Nevada 4 are contested but went blue when Trump was elected and stayed blue in the midterms. With Nevada as a whole putting Biden ahead, D Hold is the safe bet

Oregon 2 is a pretty clear R Hold

Oregon 4 and Oregon 5 are obvious D Holds

West VIrginia 2 and West Virginia 3 are safe Republican districts. R Hold

This gives the final prediction:

This sees Democrats improve their lead by 14 seats to 248, well over the 218 needed for a majority.

Data Dump - E Pluribus

Table 1

DISTRICT INCUMBENT 2018 2020
Alabama 1 Republican 63.20%
Alabama 2 Republican 61.50%
Alabama 3 Republican 63.80%
Alabama 4 Republican 79.90%
Alabama 5 Republican 61.10% Republican
Alabama 6 Republican 69.20% Republican
Alabama 7 Democratic N/A Democratic
Alaska at-large Republican 53.30% Republican
Arizona 1 Democratic 46.20%
Arizona 2 Democratic 45.30%
Arizona 3 Democratic 36.10%
Arizona 4 Republican 69.10%
Arizona 5 Republican 59.40%
Arizona 6 Republican 55.20% 47.67%
Arizona 7  Democratic N/A
Arizona 8  Republican 55.50%
Arizona 9  Democratic 38.90%
Arkansas 1  Republican 70.52% Republican
Arkansas 2  Republican 53.22% 50.00%
Arkansas 3  Republican 66.53%
Arkansas 4  Republican 68.09%
California 1  Republican 54.90% 52.13%
California 2  Democratic 23.00%
California 3  Democratic 41.90%
California 4  Republican 54.10% 52.13%
California 5  Democratic N/A
California 6  Democratic N/A
California 7  Democratic 45.00%
California 8  Republican N/A 55.81%
California 9  Democratic N/A
California 10  Democratic 47.70%
California 11  Democratic 25.90%
California 12  Democratic 13.20% Democratic
California 13  Democratic N/A
California 14  Democratic 20.80%
California 15  Democratic 27.00%
California 16  Democratic 42.50%
California 17  Democratic 24.70%
California 18  Democratic 25.50% Democratic
California 19  Democratic 26.20%
California 20  Democratic N/A
California 21  Democratic 49.60% 56.32%
California 22  Republican 52.70% 54.84%
California 23  Republican 63.70%
California 24  Democratic 41.40%
California 25  Democratic 45.60% 48.96%
California 26  Democratic 38.10%
California 27  Democratic N/A
California 28  Democratic 21.60%
California 29  Democratic 19.40% Democratic
California 30  Democratic 26.60%
California 31  Democratic 41.30%
California 32  Democratic 31.20%
California 33  Democratic 30.00%
California 34  Democratic N/A Democratic
California 35  Democratic 30.60%
California 36  Democratic 41.00%
California 37  Democratic 10.90%
California 38  Democratic 31.10% Democratic
California 39  Democratic 48.40% 50.54%
California 40  Democratic N/A
California 41  Democratic 34.90%
California 42  Republican 56.50%
California 43  Democratic 22.30%
California 44  Democratic N/A Democratic
California 45  Democratic 47.90%
California 46  Democratic 30.90%
California 47  Democratic 35.10%
California 48  Democratic 46.40% 73.86%
California 49  Democratic 43.60% 39.13%
California 50  Republican 51.70% 56.04%
California 51  Democratic 28.80%
California 52  Democratic 36.20%
California 53  Democratic 30.90% Democratic
Colorado 1  Democratic 23.76%
Colorado 2  Democratic 35.78%
Colorado 3  Republican 54.15% 49.43%
Colorado 4  Republican 60.60%
Colorado 5  Republican 59.19%
Colorado 6  Democratic 44.23%
Colorado 7  Democratic 36.95%
Connecticut 1  Democratic 35.39%
Connecticut 2  Democratic 36.27%
Connecticut 3  Democratic 35.40%
Connecticut 4  Democratic 38.80%
Connecticut 5  Democratic 44.10%
Delaware at-large  Democratic 35.50% 36.25%
Florida 1  Republican 67.10%
Florida 2  Republican 67.40% Republican
Florida 3  Republican 57.60%
Florida 4  Republican 66.87% 60.00%
Florida 5  Democratic 33.20%
Florida 6  Republican 56.30%
Florida 7  Democratic 42.30% 50.00%
Florida 8  Republican 60.50%
Florida 9  Democratic 42.00%
Florida 10  Democratic N/A
Florida 11  Republican 65.20%
Florida 12  Republican 59.41%
Florida 13  Democratic 42.40% 41.49%
Florida 14  Democratic N/A
Florida 15  Republican 53.00% 51.11%
Florida 16  Republican 54.60% 58.24%
Florida 17  Republican 62.30%
Florida 18  Republican 54.30% 48.86%
Florida 19  Republican 62.30%
Florida 20  Democratic N/A
Florida 21  Democratic N/A 35.11%
Florida 22  Democratic 38.00%
Florida 23  Democratic 38.10%
Florida 24  Democratic N/A
Florida 25  Republican 60.50% Republican
Florida 26  Democratic 49.10% 52.81%
Florida 27  Democratic 46.93% 46.24%
Georgia 1  Republican 57.70%
Georgia 2  Democratic 40.40%
Georgia 3  Republican 65.50%
Georgia 4  Democratic 21.20%
Georgia 5  Democratic N/A
Georgia 6  Democratic 49.50% 48.45%
Georgia 7  Republican 50.07% 48.15%
Georgia 8  Republican N/A
Georgia 9  Republican 79.50%
Georgia 10  Republican 62.90%
Georgia 11  Republican 61.80%
Georgia 12  Republican 59.50%
Georgia 13  Democratic 23.80%
Georgia 14  Republican 76.50% Republican
Hawaii 1  Democratic 24.01%
Hawaii 2  Democratic 22.60%
Idaho 1  Republican 67.09%
Idaho 2  Republican 60.70%
Illinois 1  Democratic 21.22%
Illinois 2  Democratic 18.90%
Illinois 3  Democratic 26.20% 48.89%
Illinois 4  Democratic 13.40%
Illinois 5  Democratic 23.30%
Illinois 6  Democratic 46.40%
Illinois 7  Democratic 12.40%
Illinois 8  Democratic 34.00% Democratic
Illinois 9  Democratic 26.50%
Illinois 10  Democratic 34.40%
Illinois 11  Democratic 36.20%
Illinois 12  Republican 53.20%
Illinois 13  Republican 50.40% 47.25%
Illinois 14  Democratic 47.50%
Illinois 15  Republican 70.90%
Illinois 16  Republican 59.10%
Illinois 17  Democratic 37.90% 46.67%
Illinois 18  Republican 67.20%
Indiana 1  Democratic 34.90%
Indiana 2  Republican 54.80%
Indiana 3  Republican 64.70%
Indiana 4  Republican 64.10%
Indiana 5  Republican 56.80% 45.98%
Indiana 6  Republican 65.98%
Indiana 7  Democratic 35.10%
Indiana 8  Republican 64.40%
Indiana 9  Republican 56.50%
Iowa 1  Democratic 47.37% 44.90%
Iowa 2  Democratic 43.74% 45.16%
Iowa 3  Democratic 48.91% 44.21%
Iowa 4  Republican 51.75% 52.75%
Kansas 1  Republican 68.10% 69.14%
Kansas 2  Republican 50.42% 56.63%
Kansas 3  Democratic 45.03% 39.13%
Kansas 4  Republican 59.40% 57.95%
Kentucky 1  Republican 68.60%
Kentucky 2  Republican 68.20%
Kentucky 3  Democratic 37.08%
Kentucky 4  Republican 64.26%
Kentucky 5  Republican 78.90%
Kentucky 6  Republican 51.62% 48.98%
Louisiana 1  Republican 81.34%
Louisiana 2  Democratic N/A
Louisiana 3  Republican 75.78%
Louisiana 4  Republican 65.64%
Louisiana 5  Republican 68.91%
Louisiana 6  Republican 77.22%
Maine 1  Democratic 35.57% 34.83%
Maine 2  Republican 50.38% 35.63%
Maryland 1  Republican 61.16%
Maryland 2  Democratic 31.71%
Maryland 3  Democratic 29.03%
Maryland 4  Democratic 20.31%
Maryland 5  Democratic 27.79%
Maryland 6  Democratic 39.18%
Maryland 7  Democratic 21.78%
Maryland 8  Democratic 30.76%
Massachusetts 1  Democratic N/A Democratic
Massachusetts 2  Democratic 32.80%
Massachusetts 3  Democratic 35.08% Democratic
Massachusetts 4  Democratic N/A
Massachusetts 5  Democratic 24.10%
Massachusetts 6  Democratic 32.51%
Massachusetts 7  Democratic N/A Democratic
Massachusetts 8  Democratic N/A Democratic
Massachusetts 9  Democratic 40.60% Democratic
Michigan 1  Republican 56.30%
Michigan 2  Republican 56.26%
Michigan 3  Republican 55.74% 45.65%
Michigan 4  Republican 62.60%
Michigan 5  Democratic 37.63%
Michigan 6  Republican 52.35%
Michigan 7  Republican 53.80%
Michigan 8  Democratic 48.05%
Michigan 9  Democratic 38.17%
Michigan 10  Republican 63.27%
Michigan 11  Democratic 46.60%
Michigan 12  Democratic 29.79%
Michigan 13  Democratic N/A
Michigan 14  Democratic 17.62%
Minnesota 1  Republican 50.20% 50.00%
Minnesota 2  Democratic 47.20% 39.77%
Minnesota 3  Democratic 44.30%
Minnesota 4  Democratic 31.11%
Minnesota 5  Democratic 21.80%
Minnesota 6  Republican 61.20%
Minnesota 7  Democratic 47.90% 55.32%
Minnesota 8  Republican 52.87%
Mississippi 1  Republican 67.37%
Mississippi 2  Democratic N/A
Mississippi 3  Republican 62.93%
Mississippi 4  Republican 68.96% Republican
Missouri 1  Democratic 17.25%
Missouri 2  Republican 52.03% 50.00%
Missouri 3  Republican 66.50%
Missouri 4  Republican 66.46%
Missouri 5  Democratic 36.52%
Missouri 6  Republican 67.15%
Missouri 7  Republican 68.74%
Missouri 8  Republican 74.59%
Montana at-large  Republican 52.42% 50.54%
Nebraska 1  Republican 60.40%
Nebraska 2  Republican 51.00% 51.52%
Nebraska 3  Republican 76.70%
Nevada 1  Democratic 31.82%
Nevada 2  Republican 58.20%
Nevada 3  Democratic 45.20%
Nevada 4  Democratic 45.71%
New Hampshire 1  Democratic 45.64% 51.02%
New Hampshire 2  Democratic 43.15% 44.57%
New Jersey 1  Democratic 34.08%
New Jersey 2  Democratic 46.08% 49.45%
New Jersey 3  Democratic 49.34% 48.28%
New Jersey 4  Republican 56.24%
New Jersey 5  Democratic 43.06% 49.43%
New Jersey 6  Democratic 36.40%
New Jersey 7  Democratic 47.46% 50.65%
New Jersey 8  Democratic 19.32%
New Jersey 9  Democratic 29.13%
New Jersey 10  Democratic 10.34%
New Jersey 11  Democratic 42.57%
New Jersey 12  Democratic 31.30%
New Mexico 1  Democratic 38.05% 38.95%
New Mexico 2  Democratic 49.10% 51.06%
New Mexico 3  Democratic 32.98% 37.63%
New York 1  Republican 52.07% 50.52%
New York 2  Republican 53.10%
New York 3  Democratic 41.00% 43.82%
New York 4  Democratic 38.70%
New York 5  Democratic N/A Democratic
New York 6  Democratic N/A
New York 7  Democratic N/A
New York 8  Democratic N/A
New York 9  Democratic 10.34%
New York 10  Democratic 17.90%
New York 11  Democratic 46.79% 49.46%
New York 12  Democratic 12.28%
New York 13  Democratic 5.40%
New York 14  Democratic 14.81%
New York 15  Democratic 4.00%
New York 16  Democratic N/A Democratic
New York 17  Democratic N/A
New York 18  Democratic 44.50% 39.77%
New York 19  Democratic 47.34%
New York 20  Democratic 33.50%
New York 21  Republican 56.95%
New York 22  Democratic 49.10% 44.83%
New York 23  Republican 54.20% 54.02%
New York 24  Republican 52.60% 51.06%
New York 25  Democratic 41.00%
New York 26  Democratic 26.70%
New York 27  Republican 50.15%
North Carolina 1  Democratic 30.20%
North Carolina 2  Republican 52.83%
North Carolina 3  Republican N/A
North Carolina 4  Democratic 24.90%
North Carolina 5  Republican 57.00%
North Carolina 6  Republican 56.50%
North Carolina 7  Republican 56.46%
North Carolina 8  Republican 55.30% 48.28%
North Carolina 9  Republican 50.20% 51.14%
North Carolina 10  Republican 59.30%
North Carolina 11  Republican 60.47% 48.28%
North Carolina 12  Democratic 26.90% Democratic
North Carolina 13  Republican 53.09%
North Dakota at-large  Republican 62.88% 62.50%
Ohio 1  Republican 52.24% 47.92%
Ohio 2  Republican 58.30%
Ohio 3  Democratic 26.40%
Ohio 4  Republican 65.30%
Ohio 5  Republican 63.96%
Ohio 6  Republican 69.30%
Ohio 7  Republican 58.70%
Ohio 8  Republican 66.60%
Ohio 9  Democratic 32.20%
Ohio 10  Republican 56.98% 52.13%
Ohio 11  Democratic 17.80%
Ohio 12  Republican 52.13% 52.17%
Ohio 13  Democratic 39.00%
Ohio 14  Republican 55.20%
Ohio 15  Republican 59.49%
Ohio 16  Republican 56.70%
Oklahoma 1  Republican 59.30% 66.29%
Oklahoma 2  Republican 68.35%
Oklahoma 3  Republican 73.90%
Oklahoma 4  Republican 65.66%
Oklahoma 5  Democratic 49.30% 52.69%
Oregon 1  Democratic 33.51%
Oregon 2  Republican 58.83%
Oregon 3  Democratic 21.49%
Oregon 4  Democratic 42.21%
Oregon 5  Democratic 43.20%
Pennsylvania 1  Republican 51.30% 49.46%
Pennsylvania 2  Democratic 21.00%
Pennsylvania 3  Democratic 6.60%
Pennsylvania 4  Democratic 36.50%
Pennsylvania 5  Democratic 34.80%
Pennsylvania 6  Democratic 41.10%
Pennsylvania 7  Democratic 44.85% 40.00%
Pennsylvania 8  Democratic 45.40% 47.25%
Pennsylvania 9  Republican 59.70%
Pennsylvania 10  Republican 51.30% 52.17%
Pennsylvania 11  Republican 59.00%
Pennsylvania 12  Republican 66.00%
Pennsylvania 13  Republican 70.50%
Pennsylvania 14  Republican 57.90%
Pennsylvania 15  Republican 67.80%
Pennsylvania 16  Republican 52.17% 54.55%
Pennsylvania 17  Democratic 43.70% 49.44%
Pennsylvania 18  Democratic N/A
Rhode Island 1  Democratic 33.10% Democratic
Rhode Island 2  Democratic 36.40%
South Carolina 1  Democratic 49.30% 51.09%
South Carolina 2  Republican 56.98%
South Carolina 3  Republican 68.62%
South Carolina 4  Republican 61.95%
South Carolina 5  Republican 57.91%
South Carolina 6  Democratic 28.73%
South Carolina 7  Republican 59.60%
South Dakota at-large  Republican 62.62% 58.70%
Tennessee 1  Republican 78.59%
Tennessee 2  Republican 66.57%
Tennessee 3  Republican 64.87%
Tennessee 4  Republican 65.36%
Tennessee 5  Democratic 32.20% Democratic
Tennessee 6  Republican 71.06%
Tennessee 7  Republican 67.58%
Tennessee 8  Republican 69.22%
Tennessee 9  Democratic 19.35%
Texas 1  Republican 73.33%
Texas 2  Republican 53.66%
Texas 3  Republican 55.07% 48.84%
Texas 4  Republican 76.70%
Texas 5  Republican 62.40%
Texas 6  Republican 53.91% 52.33%
Texas 7  Democratic 47.50% 48.89%
Texas 8  Republican 74.67%
Texas 9  Democratic N/A
Texas 10  Republican 52.20% 51.14%
Texas 11  Republican 81.32%
Texas 12  Republican 65.48%
Texas 13  Republican 82.83%
Texas 14  Republican 60.10%
Texas 15  Democratic 39.39%
Texas 16  Democratic 28.27%
Texas 17  Republican 57.90% 51.72%
Texas 18  Democratic 21.67%
Texas 19  Republican 75.20%
Texas 20  Democratic N/A
Texas 21  Republican 51.33% 52.81%
Texas 22  Republican 52.50% 47.25%
Texas 23  Republican 50.26% 49.40%
Texas 24  Republican 51.60% 46.07%
Texas 25  Republican 54.43% 51.19%
Texas 26  Republican 60.37%
Texas 27  Republican 62.23%
Texas 28  Democratic N/A
Texas 29  Democratic 24.14%
Texas 30  Democratic N/A
Texas 31  Republican 51.48% 53.75%
Texas 32  Democratic 46.69%
Texas 33  Democratic 22.32%
Texas 34  Democratic 40.00%
Texas 35  Democratic 26.72%
Texas 36  Republican 72.60%
Utah 1  Republican 71.21% 69.01%
Utah 2  Republican 59.05% 63.16%
Utah 3  Republican 71.20% 71.83%
Utah 4  Democratic 49.90% 50.55%
Vermont at-large  Democratic 27.31% 24.00%
Virginia 1  Republican 55.20%
Virginia 2  Democratic 48.90% 46.24%
Virginia 3  Democratic N/A
Virginia 4  Democratic 36.51%
Virginia 5  Republican 53.30% 48.31%
Virginia 6  Republican 59.80%
Virginia 7  Democratic 48.99%
Virginia 8  Democratic 23.70%
Virginia 9  Republican 65.20% Republican
Virginia 10  Democratic 43.80% 38.30%
Virginia 11  Democratic 27.49%
Washington 1  Democratic 40.70%
Washington 2  Democratic N/A
Washington 3  Republican 52.70% 51.04%
Washington 4  Republican 62.80%
Washington 5  Republican 54.80%
Washington 6  Democratic 36.10%
Washington 7  Democratic 16.40%
Washington 8  Democratic 47.60%
Washington 9  Democratic N/A
Washington 10  Democratic 38.50% Democratic
West Virginia 1  Republican 64.60%
West Virginia 2  Republican 55.67%
West Virginia 3  Republican 56.40%
Wisconsin 1  Republican 56.35% 55.68%
Wisconsin 2  Democratic N/A
Wisconsin 3  Democratic 40.30%
Wisconsin 4  Democratic 22.28%
Wisconsin 5  Republican 62.00%
Wisconsin 6  Republican 55.50%
Wisconsin 7  Republican 60.94%
Wisconsin 8  Republican 63.70%
Wyoming at-large  Republican 68.13% 67.44%

Table 2

DISTRICT INCUMBENT 2018 +/- 10%
Alabama 1 Republican 63.20% Republican
Alabama 2 Republican 61.50% Republican
Alabama 3 Republican 63.80% Republican
Alabama 4 Republican 79.90% Republican
Alabama 5 Republican 61.10% Republican
Alabama 6 Republican 69.20% Republican
Alabama 7 Democratic N/A Democratic
Alaska at-large Republican 53.30% Republican
Arizona 1 Democratic 46.20%
Arizona 2 Democratic 45.30%
Arizona 3 Democratic 36.10% Democratic
Arizona 4 Republican 69.10% Republican
Arizona 5 Republican 59.40%
Arizona 6 Republican 55.20% Democratic
Arizona 7  Democratic N/A Democratic
Arizona 8  Republican 55.50%
Arizona 9  Democratic 38.90% Democratic
Arkansas 1  Republican 70.52% Republican
Arkansas 2  Republican 53.22%
Arkansas 3  Republican 66.53% Republican
Arkansas 4  Republican 68.09% Republican
California 1  Republican 54.90% Republican
California 2  Democratic 23.00% Democratic
California 3  Democratic 41.90%
California 4  Republican 54.10% Republican
California 5  Democratic N/A Democratic
California 6  Democratic N/A Democratic
California 7  Democratic 45.00%
California 8  Republican N/A Republican
California 9  Democratic N/A Democratic
California 10  Democratic 47.70%
California 11  Democratic 25.90% Democratic
California 12  Democratic 13.20% Democratic
California 13  Democratic N/A Democratic
California 14  Democratic 20.80% Democratic
California 15  Democratic 27.00% Democratic
California 16  Democratic 42.50% Democratic
California 17  Democratic 24.70% Democratic
California 18  Democratic 25.50% Democratic
California 19  Democratic 26.20% Democratic
California 20  Democratic N/A Democratic
California 21  Democratic 49.60% Republican
California 22  Republican 52.70% Republican
California 23  Republican 63.70% Republican
California 24  Democratic 41.40%
California 25  Democratic 45.60% Democratic
California 26  Democratic 38.10% Democratic
California 27  Democratic N/A Democratic
California 28  Democratic 21.60% Democratic
California 29  Democratic 19.40% Democratic
California 30  Democratic 26.60% Democratic
California 31  Democratic 41.30%
California 32  Democratic 31.20% Democratic
California 33  Democratic 30.00% Democratic
California 34  Democratic N/A Democratic
California 35  Democratic 30.60% Democratic
California 36  Democratic 41.00%
California 37  Democratic 10.90% Democratic
California 38  Democratic 31.10% Democratic
California 39  Democratic 48.40% Republican
California 40  Democratic N/A Democratic
California 41  Democratic 34.90% Democratic
California 42  Republican 56.50%
California 43  Democratic 22.30% Democratic
California 44  Democratic N/A Democratic
California 45  Democratic 47.90%
California 46  Democratic 30.90% Democratic
California 47  Democratic 35.10% Democratic
California 48  Democratic 46.40% Republican
California 49  Democratic 43.60% Democratic
California 50  Republican 51.70% Republican
California 51  Democratic 28.80% Democratic
California 52  Democratic 36.20% Democratic
California 53  Democratic 30.90% Democratic
Colorado 1  Democratic 23.76% Democratic
Colorado 2  Democratic 35.78% Democratic
Colorado 3  Republican 54.15% Democratic
Colorado 4  Republican 60.60% Republican
Colorado 5  Republican 59.19%
Colorado 6  Democratic 44.23%
Colorado 7  Democratic 36.95% Democratic
Connecticut 1  Democratic 35.39% Democratic
Connecticut 2  Democratic 36.27% Democratic
Connecticut 3  Democratic 35.40% Democratic
Connecticut 4  Democratic 38.80% Democratic
Connecticut 5  Democratic 44.10%
Delaware at-large  Democratic 35.50% Democratic
Florida 1  Republican 67.10% Republican
Florida 2  Republican 67.40% Republican
Florida 3  Republican 57.60%
Florida 4  Republican 66.87% Republican
Florida 5  Democratic 33.20% Democratic
Florida 6  Republican 56.30%
Florida 7  Democratic 42.30%
Florida 8  Republican 60.50% Republican
Florida 9  Democratic 42.00%
Florida 10  Democratic N/A Democratic
Florida 11  Republican 65.20% Republican
Florida 12  Republican 59.41%
Florida 13  Democratic 42.40% Democratic
Florida 14  Democratic N/A Democratic
Florida 15  Republican 53.00% Republican
Florida 16  Republican 54.60% Republican
Florida 17  Republican 62.30% Republican
Florida 18  Republican 54.30% Democratic
Florida 19  Republican 62.30% Republican
Florida 20  Democratic N/A Democratic
Florida 21  Democratic N/A Democratic
Florida 22  Democratic 38.00% Democratic
Florida 23  Democratic 38.10% Democratic
Florida 24  Democratic N/A Democratic
Florida 25  Republican 60.50% Republican
Florida 26  Democratic 49.10% Republican
Florida 27  Democratic 46.93% Democratic
Georgia 1  Republican 57.70%
Georgia 2  Democratic 40.40%
Georgia 3  Republican 65.50% Republican
Georgia 4  Democratic 21.20% Democratic
Georgia 5  Democratic N/A Democratic
Georgia 6  Democratic 49.50% Democratic
Georgia 7  Republican 50.07% Democratic
Georgia 8  Republican N/A Republican
Georgia 9  Republican 79.50% Republican
Georgia 10  Republican 62.90% Republican
Georgia 11  Republican 61.80% Republican
Georgia 12  Republican 59.50%
Georgia 13  Democratic 23.80% Democratic
Georgia 14  Republican 76.50% Republican
Hawaii 1  Democratic 24.01% Democratic
Hawaii 2  Democratic 22.60% Democratic
Idaho 1  Republican 67.09% Republican
Idaho 2  Republican 60.70% Republican
Illinois 1  Democratic 21.22% Democratic
Illinois 2  Democratic 18.90% Democratic
Illinois 3  Democratic 26.20% Democratic
Illinois 4  Democratic 13.40% Democratic
Illinois 5  Democratic 23.30% Democratic
Illinois 6  Democratic 46.40%
Illinois 7  Democratic 12.40% Democratic
Illinois 8  Democratic 34.00% Democratic
Illinois 9  Democratic 26.50% Democratic
Illinois 10  Democratic 34.40% Democratic
Illinois 11  Democratic 36.20% Democratic
Illinois 12  Republican 53.20%
Illinois 13  Republican 50.40% Democratic
Illinois 14  Democratic 47.50%
Illinois 15  Republican 70.90% Republican
Illinois 16  Republican 59.10%
Illinois 17  Democratic 37.90% Democratic
Illinois 18  Republican 67.20% Republican
Indiana 1  Democratic 34.90% Democratic
Indiana 2  Republican 54.80%
Indiana 3  Republican 64.70% Republican
Indiana 4  Republican 64.10% Republican
Indiana 5  Republican 56.80% Democratic
Indiana 6  Republican 65.98% Republican
Indiana 7  Democratic 35.10% Democratic
Indiana 8  Republican 64.40% Republican
Indiana 9  Republican 56.50%
Iowa 1  Democratic 47.37% Democratic
Iowa 2  Democratic 43.74% Democratic
Iowa 3  Democratic 48.91% Democratic
Iowa 4  Republican 51.75% Republican
Kansas 1  Republican 68.10% Republican
Kansas 2  Republican 50.42% Republican
Kansas 3  Democratic 45.03% Democratic
Kansas 4  Republican 59.40% Republican
Kentucky 1  Republican 68.60% Republican
Kentucky 2  Republican 68.20% Republican
Kentucky 3  Democratic 37.08% Democratic
Kentucky 4  Republican 64.26% Republican
Kentucky 5  Republican 78.90% Republican
Kentucky 6  Republican 51.62% Democratic
Louisiana 1  Republican 81.34% Republican
Louisiana 2  Democratic N/A Democratic
Louisiana 3  Republican 75.78% Republican
Louisiana 4  Republican 65.64% Republican
Louisiana 5  Republican 68.91% Republican
Louisiana 6  Republican 77.22% Republican
Maine 1  Democratic 35.57% Democratic
Maine 2  Republican 50.38% Democratic
Maryland 1  Republican 61.16% Republican
Maryland 2  Democratic 31.71% Democratic
Maryland 3  Democratic 29.03% Democratic
Maryland 4  Democratic 20.31% Democratic
Maryland 5  Democratic 27.79% Democratic
Maryland 6  Democratic 39.18% Democratic
Maryland 7  Democratic 21.78% Democratic
Maryland 8  Democratic 30.76% Democratic
Massachusetts 1  Democratic N/A Democratic
Massachusetts 2  Democratic 32.80% Democratic
Massachusetts 3  Democratic 35.08% Democratic
Massachusetts 4  Democratic N/A Democratic
Massachusetts 5  Democratic 24.10% Democratic
Massachusetts 6  Democratic 32.51% Democratic
Massachusetts 7  Democratic N/A Democratic
Massachusetts 8  Democratic N/A Democratic
Massachusetts 9  Democratic 40.60% Democratic
Michigan 1  Republican 56.30%
Michigan 2  Republican 56.26%
Michigan 3  Republican 55.74% Democratic
Michigan 4  Republican 62.60% Republican
Michigan 5  Democratic 37.63% Democratic
Michigan 6  Republican 52.35%
Michigan 7  Republican 53.80%
Michigan 8  Democratic 48.05%
Michigan 9  Democratic 38.17% Democratic
Michigan 10  Republican 63.27% Republican
Michigan 11  Democratic 46.60%
Michigan 12  Democratic 29.79% Democratic
Michigan 13  Democratic N/A Democratic
Michigan 14  Democratic 17.62% Democratic
Minnesota 1  Republican 50.20%
Minnesota 2  Democratic 47.20% Democratic
Minnesota 3  Democratic 44.30%
Minnesota 4  Democratic 31.11% Democratic
Minnesota 5  Democratic 21.80% Democratic
Minnesota 6  Republican 61.20% Republican
Minnesota 7  Democratic 47.90% Republican
Minnesota 8  Republican 52.87%
Mississippi 1  Republican 67.37% Republican
Mississippi 2  Democratic N/A Democratic
Mississippi 3  Republican 62.93% Republican
Mississippi 4  Republican 68.96% Republican
Missouri 1  Democratic 17.25% Democratic
Missouri 2  Republican 52.03%
Missouri 3  Republican 66.50% Republican
Missouri 4  Republican 66.46% Republican
Missouri 5  Democratic 36.52% Democratic
Missouri 6  Republican 67.15% Republican
Missouri 7  Republican 68.74% Republican
Missouri 8  Republican 74.59% Republican
Montana at-large  Republican 52.42% Republican
Nebraska 1  Republican 60.40% Republican
Nebraska 2  Republican 51.00% Republican
Nebraska 3  Republican 76.70% Republican
Nevada 1  Democratic 31.82% Democratic
Nevada 2  Republican 58.20%
Nevada 3  Democratic 45.20%
Nevada 4  Democratic 45.71%
New Hampshire 1  Democratic 45.64% Republican
New Hampshire 2  Democratic 43.15% Democratic
New Jersey 1  Democratic 34.08% Democratic
New Jersey 2  Democratic 46.08% Democratic
New Jersey 3  Democratic 49.34% Democratic
New Jersey 4  Republican 56.24%
New Jersey 5  Democratic 43.06% Democratic
New Jersey 6  Democratic 36.40% Democratic
New Jersey 7  Democratic 47.46% Republican
New Jersey 8  Democratic 19.32% Democratic
New Jersey 9  Democratic 29.13% Democratic
New Jersey 10  Democratic 10.34% Democratic
New Jersey 11  Democratic 42.57%
New Jersey 12  Democratic 31.30% Democratic
New Mexico 1  Democratic 38.05% Democratic
New Mexico 2  Democratic 49.10% Republican
New Mexico 3  Democratic 32.98% Democratic
New York 1  Republican 52.07% Republican
New York 2  Republican 53.10%
New York 3  Democratic 41.00% Democratic
New York 4  Democratic 38.70% Democratic
New York 5  Democratic N/A Democratic
New York 6  Democratic N/A Democratic
New York 7  Democratic N/A Democratic
New York 8  Democratic N/A Democratic
New York 9  Democratic 10.34% Democratic
New York 10  Democratic 17.90% Democratic
New York 11  Democratic 46.79% Democratic
New York 12  Democratic 12.28% Democratic
New York 13  Democratic 5.40% Democratic
New York 14  Democratic 14.81% Democratic
New York 15  Democratic 4.00% Democratic
New York 16  Democratic N/A Democratic
New York 17  Democratic N/A Democratic
New York 18  Democratic 44.50% Democratic
New York 19  Democratic 47.34%
New York 20  Democratic 33.50% Democratic
New York 21  Republican 56.95%
New York 22  Democratic 49.10% Democratic
New York 23  Republican 54.20% Republican
New York 24  Republican 52.60% Republican
New York 25  Democratic 41.00%
New York 26  Democratic 26.70% Democratic
New York 27  Republican 50.15%
North Carolina 1  Democratic 30.20% Democratic
North Carolina 2  Republican 52.83%
North Carolina 3  Republican N/A Republican
North Carolina 4  Democratic 24.90% Democratic
North Carolina 5  Republican 57.00%
North Carolina 6  Republican 56.50%
North Carolina 7  Republican 56.46%
North Carolina 8  Republican 55.30% Democratic
North Carolina 9  Republican 50.20% Republican
North Carolina 10  Republican 59.30%
North Carolina 11  Republican 60.47% Democratic
North Carolina 12  Democratic 26.90% Democratic
North Carolina 13  Republican 53.09%
North Dakota at-large  Republican 62.88% Republican
Ohio 1  Republican 52.24% Democratic
Ohio 2  Republican 58.30%
Ohio 3  Democratic 26.40% Democratic
Ohio 4  Republican 65.30% Republican
Ohio 5  Republican 63.96% Republican
Ohio 6  Republican 69.30% Republican
Ohio 7  Republican 58.70%
Ohio 8  Republican 66.60% Republican
Ohio 9  Democratic 32.20% Democratic
Ohio 10  Republican 56.98% Republican
Ohio 11  Democratic 17.80% Democratic
Ohio 12  Republican 52.13% Republican
Ohio 13  Democratic 39.00% Democratic
Ohio 14  Republican 55.20%
Ohio 15  Republican 59.49%
Ohio 16  Republican 56.70%
Oklahoma 1  Republican 59.30% Republican
Oklahoma 2  Republican 68.35% Republican
Oklahoma 3  Republican 73.90% Republican
Oklahoma 4  Republican 65.66% Republican
Oklahoma 5  Democratic 49.30% Republican
Oregon 1  Democratic 33.51% Democratic
Oregon 2  Republican 58.83%
Oregon 3  Democratic 21.49% Democratic
Oregon 4  Democratic 42.21%
Oregon 5  Democratic 43.20%
Pennsylvania 1  Republican 51.30% Democratic
Pennsylvania 2  Democratic 21.00% Democratic
Pennsylvania 3  Democratic 6.60% Democratic
Pennsylvania 4  Democratic 36.50% Democratic
Pennsylvania 5  Democratic 34.80% Democratic
Pennsylvania 6  Democratic 41.10%
Pennsylvania 7  Democratic 44.85% Democratic
Pennsylvania 8  Democratic 45.40% Democratic
Pennsylvania 9  Republican 59.70%
Pennsylvania 10  Republican 51.30% Republican
Pennsylvania 11  Republican 59.00%
Pennsylvania 12  Republican 66.00% Republican
Pennsylvania 13  Republican 70.50% Republican
Pennsylvania 14  Republican 57.90%
Pennsylvania 15  Republican 67.80% Republican
Pennsylvania 16  Republican 52.17% Republican
Pennsylvania 17  Democratic 43.70% Democratic
Pennsylvania 18  Democratic N/A Democratic
Rhode Island 1  Democratic 33.10% Democratic
Rhode Island 2  Democratic 36.40% Democratic
South Carolina 1  Democratic 49.30% Republican
South Carolina 2  Republican 56.98%
South Carolina 3  Republican 68.62% Republican
South Carolina 4  Republican 61.95% Republican
South Carolina 5  Republican 57.91%
South Carolina 6  Democratic 28.73% Democratic
South Carolina 7  Republican 59.60%
South Dakota at-large  Republican 62.62% Republican
Tennessee 1  Republican 78.59% Republican
Tennessee 2  Republican 66.57% Republican
Tennessee 3  Republican 64.87% Republican
Tennessee 4  Republican 65.36% Republican
Tennessee 5  Democratic 32.20% Democratic
Tennessee 6  Republican 71.06% Republican
Tennessee 7  Republican 67.58% Republican
Tennessee 8  Republican 69.22% Republican
Tennessee 9  Democratic 19.35% Democratic
Texas 1  Republican 73.33% Republican
Texas 2  Republican 53.66%
Texas 3  Republican 55.07% Democratic
Texas 4  Republican 76.70% Republican
Texas 5  Republican 62.40% Republican
Texas 6  Republican 53.91% Republican
Texas 7  Democratic 47.50% Democratic
Texas 8  Republican 74.67% Republican
Texas 9  Democratic N/A Democratic
Texas 10  Republican 52.20% Republican
Texas 11  Republican 81.32% Republican
Texas 12  Republican 65.48% Republican
Texas 13  Republican 82.83% Republican
Texas 14  Republican 60.10% Republican
Texas 15  Democratic 39.39% Democratic
Texas 16  Democratic 28.27% Democratic
Texas 17  Republican 57.90% Republican
Texas 18  Democratic 21.67% Democratic
Texas 19  Republican 75.20% Republican
Texas 20  Democratic N/A Democratic
Texas 21  Republican 51.33% Republican
Texas 22  Republican 52.50% Democratic
Texas 23  Republican 50.26% Democratic
Texas 24  Republican 51.60% Democratic
Texas 25  Republican 54.43% Republican
Texas 26  Republican 60.37% Republican
Texas 27  Republican 62.23% Republican
Texas 28  Democratic N/A Democratic
Texas 29  Democratic 24.14% Democratic
Texas 30  Democratic N/A Democratic
Texas 31  Republican 51.48% Republican
Texas 32  Democratic 46.69%
Texas 33  Democratic 22.32% Democratic
Texas 34  Democratic 40.00%
Texas 35  Democratic 26.72% Democratic
Texas 36  Republican 72.60% Republican
Utah 1  Republican 71.21% Republican
Utah 2  Republican 59.05% Republican
Utah 3  Republican 71.20% Republican
Utah 4  Democratic 49.90% Republican
Vermont at-large  Democratic 27.31% Democratic
Virginia 1  Republican 55.20%
Virginia 2  Democratic 48.90% Democratic
Virginia 3  Democratic N/A Democratic
Virginia 4  Democratic 36.51% Democratic
Virginia 5  Republican 53.30% Democratic
Virginia 6  Republican 59.80%
Virginia 7  Democratic 48.99%
Virginia 8  Democratic 23.70% Democratic
Virginia 9  Republican 65.20% Republican
Virginia 10  Democratic 43.80% Democratic
Virginia 11  Democratic 27.49% Democratic
Washington 1  Democratic 40.70%
Washington 2  Democratic N/A Democratic
Washington 3  Republican 52.70% Republican
Washington 4  Republican 62.80% Republican
Washington 5  Republican 54.80%
Washington 6  Democratic 36.10% Democratic
Washington 7  Democratic 16.40% Democratic
Washington 8  Democratic 47.60%
Washington 9  Democratic N/A Democratic
Washington 10  Democratic 38.50% Democratic
West Virginia 1  Republican 64.60% Republican
West Virginia 2  Republican 55.67%
West Virginia 3  Republican 56.40%
Wisconsin 1  Republican 56.35% Republican
Wisconsin 2  Democratic N/A Democratic
Wisconsin 3  Democratic 40.30%
Wisconsin 4  Democratic 22.28% Democratic
Wisconsin 5  Republican 62.00% Republican
Wisconsin 6  Republican 55.50%
Wisconsin 7  Republican 60.94% Republican
Wisconsin 8  Republican 63.70% Republican
Wyoming at-large  Republican 68.13% Republican

Table 3

DISTRICT INCUMBENT 2018 + SWING
Alabama 1 Republican 63.20% Republican
Alabama 2 Republican 61.50% Republican
Alabama 3 Republican 63.80% Republican
Alabama 4 Republican 79.90% Republican
Alabama 5 Republican 61.10% Republican
Alabama 6 Republican 69.20% Republican
Alabama 7 Democratic N/A Democratic
Alaska at-large Republican 53.30% Republican
Arizona 1 Democratic 46.20% 38.67%
Arizona 2 Democratic 45.30% 37.77%
Arizona 3 Democratic 36.10% Democratic
Arizona 4 Republican 69.10% Republican
Arizona 5 Republican 59.40% 51.87%
Arizona 6 Republican 55.20% Democratic
Arizona 7  Democratic N/A Democratic
Arizona 8  Republican 55.50% 47.97%
Arizona 9  Democratic 38.90% Democratic
Arkansas 1  Republican 70.52% Republican
Arkansas 2  Republican 53.22%
Arkansas 3  Republican 66.53% Republican
Arkansas 4  Republican 68.09% Republican
California 1  Republican 54.90% Republican
California 2  Democratic 23.00% Democratic
California 3  Democratic 41.90% 46.01%
California 4  Republican 54.10% Republican
California 5  Democratic N/A Democratic
California 6  Democratic N/A Democratic
California 7  Democratic 45.00% 49.11%
California 8  Republican N/A Republican
California 9  Democratic N/A Democratic
California 10  Democratic 47.70% 51.81%
California 11  Democratic 25.90% Democratic
California 12  Democratic 13.20% Democratic
California 13  Democratic N/A Democratic
California 14  Democratic 20.80% Democratic
California 15  Democratic 27.00% Democratic
California 16  Democratic 42.50% Democratic
California 17  Democratic 24.70% Democratic
California 18  Democratic 25.50% Democratic
California 19  Democratic 26.20% Democratic
California 20  Democratic N/A Democratic
California 21  Democratic 49.60% Republican
California 22  Republican 52.70% Republican
California 23  Republican 63.70% Republican
California 24  Democratic 41.40% 45.51%
California 25  Democratic 45.60% Democratic
California 26  Democratic 38.10% Democratic
California 27  Democratic N/A Democratic
California 28  Democratic 21.60% Democratic
California 29  Democratic 19.40% Democratic
California 30  Democratic 26.60% Democratic
California 31  Democratic 41.30% 45.41%
California 32  Democratic 31.20% Democratic
California 33  Democratic 30.00% Democratic
California 34  Democratic N/A Democratic
California 35  Democratic 30.60% Democratic
California 36  Democratic 41.00% 45.11%
California 37  Democratic 10.90% Democratic
California 38  Democratic 31.10% Democratic
California 39  Democratic 48.40% Republican
California 40  Democratic N/A Democratic
California 41  Democratic 34.90% Democratic
California 42  Republican 56.50% 60.61%
California 43  Democratic 22.30% Democratic
California 44  Democratic N/A Democratic
California 45  Democratic 47.90% 52.01%
California 46  Democratic 30.90% Democratic
California 47  Democratic 35.10% Democratic
California 48  Democratic 46.40% Republican
California 49  Democratic 43.60% Democratic
California 50  Republican 51.70% Republican
California 51  Democratic 28.80% Democratic
California 52  Democratic 36.20% Democratic
California 53  Democratic 30.90% Democratic
Colorado 1  Democratic 23.76% Democratic
Colorado 2  Democratic 35.78% Democratic
Colorado 3  Republican 54.15% Democratic
Colorado 4  Republican 60.60% Republican
Colorado 5  Republican 59.19% 54.46%
Colorado 6  Democratic 44.23% 39.50%
Colorado 7  Democratic 36.95% Democratic
Connecticut 1  Democratic 35.39% Democratic
Connecticut 2  Democratic 36.27% Democratic
Connecticut 3  Democratic 35.40% Democratic
Connecticut 4  Democratic 38.80% Democratic
Connecticut 5  Democratic 44.10%
Delaware at-large  Democratic 35.50% Democratic
Florida 1  Republican 67.10% Republican
Florida 2  Republican 67.40% Republican
Florida 3  Republican 57.60% 57.51%
Florida 4  Republican 66.87% Republican
Florida 5  Democratic 33.20% Democratic
Florida 6  Republican 56.30% 56.21%
Florida 7  Democratic 42.30% 42.21%
Florida 8  Republican 60.50% Republican
Florida 9  Democratic 42.00% 41.91%
Florida 10  Democratic N/A Democratic
Florida 11  Republican 65.20% Republican
Florida 12  Republican 59.41% 59.31%
Florida 13  Democratic 42.40% Democratic
Florida 14  Democratic N/A Democratic
Florida 15  Republican 53.00% Republican
Florida 16  Republican 54.60% Republican
Florida 17  Republican 62.30% Republican
Florida 18  Republican 54.30% Democratic
Florida 19  Republican 62.30% Republican
Florida 20  Democratic N/A Democratic
Florida 21  Democratic N/A Democratic
Florida 22  Democratic 38.00% Democratic
Florida 23  Democratic 38.10% Democratic
Florida 24  Democratic N/A Democratic
Florida 25  Republican 60.50% Republican
Florida 26  Democratic 49.10% Republican
Florida 27  Democratic 46.93% Democratic
Georgia 1  Republican 57.70% 56.22%
Georgia 2  Democratic 40.40% 38.92%
Georgia 3  Republican 65.50% Republican
Georgia 4  Democratic 21.20% Democratic
Georgia 5  Democratic N/A Democratic
Georgia 6  Democratic 49.50% Democratic
Georgia 7  Republican 50.07% Democratic
Georgia 8  Republican N/A Republican
Georgia 9  Republican 79.50% Republican
Georgia 10  Republican 62.90% Republican
Georgia 11  Republican 61.80% Republican
Georgia 12  Republican 59.50% 58.02%
Georgia 13  Democratic 23.80% Democratic
Georgia 14  Republican 76.50% Republican
Hawaii 1  Democratic 24.01% Democratic
Hawaii 2  Democratic 22.60% Democratic
Idaho 1  Republican 67.09% Republican
Idaho 2  Republican 60.70% Republican
Illinois 1  Democratic 21.22% Democratic
Illinois 2  Democratic 18.90% Democratic
Illinois 3  Democratic 26.20% Democratic
Illinois 4  Democratic 13.40% Democratic
Illinois 5  Democratic 23.30% Democratic
Illinois 6  Democratic 46.40% 55.84%
Illinois 7  Democratic 12.40% Democratic
Illinois 8  Democratic 34.00% Democratic
Illinois 9  Democratic 26.50% Democratic
Illinois 10  Democratic 34.40% Democratic
Illinois 11  Democratic 36.20% Democratic
Illinois 12  Republican 53.20% 62.63%
Illinois 13  Republican 50.40% Democratic
Illinois 14  Democratic 47.50% 56.94%
Illinois 15  Republican 70.90% Republican
Illinois 16  Republican 59.10% 68.54%
Illinois 17  Democratic 37.90% Democratic
Illinois 18  Republican 67.20% Republican
Indiana 1  Democratic 34.90% Democratic
Indiana 2  Republican 54.80% 43.98%
Indiana 3  Republican 64.70% Republican
Indiana 4  Republican 64.10% Republican
Indiana 5  Republican 56.80% Democratic
Indiana 6  Republican 65.98% Republican
Indiana 7  Democratic 35.10% Democratic
Indiana 8  Republican 64.40% Republican
Indiana 9  Republican 56.50% 45.68%
Iowa 1  Democratic 47.37% Democratic
Iowa 2  Democratic 43.74% Democratic
Iowa 3  Democratic 48.91% Democratic
Iowa 4  Republican 51.75% Republican
Kansas 1  Republican 68.10% Republican
Kansas 2  Republican 50.42% Republican
Kansas 3  Democratic 45.03% Democratic
Kansas 4  Republican 59.40% Republican
Kentucky 1  Republican 68.60% Republican
Kentucky 2  Republican 68.20% Republican
Kentucky 3  Democratic 37.08% Democratic
Kentucky 4  Republican 64.26% Republican
Kentucky 5  Republican 78.90% Republican
Kentucky 6  Republican 51.62% Democratic
Louisiana 1  Republican 81.34% Republican
Louisiana 2  Democratic N/A Democratic
Louisiana 3  Republican 75.78% Republican
Louisiana 4  Republican 65.64% Republican
Louisiana 5  Republican 68.91% Republican
Louisiana 6  Republican 77.22% Republican
Maine 1  Democratic 35.57% Democratic
Maine 2  Republican 50.38% Democratic
Maryland 1  Republican 61.16% Republican
Maryland 2  Democratic 31.71% Democratic
Maryland 3  Democratic 29.03% Democratic
Maryland 4  Democratic 20.31% Democratic
Maryland 5  Democratic 27.79% Democratic
Maryland 6  Democratic 39.18% Democratic
Maryland 7  Democratic 21.78% Democratic
Maryland 8  Democratic 30.76% Democratic
Massachusetts 1  Democratic N/A Democratic
Massachusetts 2  Democratic 32.80% Democratic
Massachusetts 3  Democratic 35.08% Democratic
Massachusetts 4  Democratic N/A Democratic
Massachusetts 5  Democratic 24.10% Democratic
Massachusetts 6  Democratic 32.51% Democratic
Massachusetts 7  Democratic N/A Democratic
Massachusetts 8  Democratic N/A Democratic
Massachusetts 9  Democratic 40.60% Democratic
Michigan 1  Republican 56.30% 46.21%
Michigan 2  Republican 56.26% 46.17%
Michigan 3  Republican 55.74% Democratic
Michigan 4  Republican 62.60% Republican
Michigan 5  Democratic 37.63% Democratic
Michigan 6  Republican 52.35% 42.26%
Michigan 7  Republican 53.80% 43.71%
Michigan 8  Democratic 48.05% 37.96%
Michigan 9  Democratic 38.17% Democratic
Michigan 10  Republican 63.27% Republican
Michigan 11  Democratic 46.60% 36.51%
Michigan 12  Democratic 29.79% Democratic
Michigan 13  Democratic N/A Democratic
Michigan 14  Democratic 17.62% Democratic
Minnesota 1  Republican 50.20% 50.13%
Minnesota 2  Democratic 47.20% Democratic
Minnesota 3  Democratic 44.30% 44.23%
Minnesota 4  Democratic 31.11% Democratic
Minnesota 5  Democratic 21.80% Democratic
Minnesota 6  Republican 61.20% Republican
Minnesota 7  Democratic 47.90% Republican
Minnesota 8  Republican 52.87% 52.80%
Mississippi 1  Republican 67.37% Republican
Mississippi 2  Democratic N/A Democratic
Mississippi 3  Republican 62.93% Republican
Mississippi 4  Republican 68.96% Republican
Missouri 1  Democratic 17.25% Democratic
Missouri 2  Republican 52.03%
Missouri 3  Republican 66.50% Republican
Missouri 4  Republican 66.46% Republican
Missouri 5  Democratic 36.52% Democratic
Missouri 6  Republican 67.15% Republican
Missouri 7  Republican 68.74% Republican
Missouri 8  Republican 74.59% Republican
Montana at-large  Republican 52.42% Republican
Nebraska 1  Republican 60.40% Republican
Nebraska 2  Republican 51.00% Republican
Nebraska 3  Republican 76.70% Republican
Nevada 1  Democratic 31.82% Democratic
Nevada 2  Republican 58.20%
Nevada 3  Democratic 45.20%
Nevada 4  Democratic 45.71%
New Hampshire 1  Democratic 45.64% Republican
New Hampshire 2  Democratic 43.15% Democratic
New Jersey 1  Democratic 34.08% Democratic
New Jersey 2  Democratic 46.08% Democratic
New Jersey 3  Democratic 49.34% Democratic
New Jersey 4  Republican 56.24% 60.20%
New Jersey 5  Democratic 43.06% Democratic
New Jersey 6  Democratic 36.40% Democratic
New Jersey 7  Democratic 47.46% Republican
New Jersey 8  Democratic 19.32% Democratic
New Jersey 9  Democratic 29.13% Democratic
New Jersey 10  Democratic 10.34% Democratic
New Jersey 11  Democratic 42.57% 46.52%
New Jersey 12  Democratic 31.30% Democratic
New Mexico 1  Democratic 38.05% Democratic
New Mexico 2  Democratic 49.10% Republican
New Mexico 3  Democratic 32.98% Democratic
New York 1  Republican 52.07% Republican
New York 2  Republican 53.10% 52.13%
New York 3  Democratic 41.00% Democratic
New York 4  Democratic 38.70% Democratic
New York 5  Democratic N/A Democratic
New York 6  Democratic N/A Democratic
New York 7  Democratic N/A Democratic
New York 8  Democratic N/A Democratic
New York 9  Democratic 10.34% Democratic
New York 10  Democratic 17.90% Democratic
New York 11  Democratic 46.79% Democratic
New York 12  Democratic 12.28% Democratic
New York 13  Democratic 5.40% Democratic
New York 14  Democratic 14.81% Democratic
New York 15  Democratic 4.00% Democratic
New York 16  Democratic N/A Democratic
New York 17  Democratic N/A Democratic
New York 18  Democratic 44.50% Democratic
New York 19  Democratic 47.34% 46.37%
New York 20  Democratic 33.50% Democratic
New York 21  Republican 56.95% 55.99%
New York 22  Democratic 49.10% Democratic
New York 23  Republican 54.20% Republican
New York 24  Republican 52.60% Republican
New York 25  Democratic 41.00% 40.03%
New York 26  Democratic 26.70% Democratic
New York 27  Republican 50.15% 49.19%
North Carolina 1  Democratic 30.20% Democratic
North Carolina 2  Republican 52.83% 46.74%
North Carolina 3  Republican N/A Republican
North Carolina 4  Democratic 24.90% Democratic
North Carolina 5  Republican 57.00% 50.90%
North Carolina 6  Republican 56.50% 50.40%
North Carolina 7  Republican 56.46% 50.36%
North Carolina 8  Republican 55.30% Democratic
North Carolina 9  Republican 50.20% Republican
North Carolina 10  Republican 59.30% 53.20%
North Carolina 11  Republican 60.47% Democratic
North Carolina 12  Democratic 26.90% Democratic
North Carolina 13  Republican 53.09% 47.00%
North Dakota at-large  Republican 62.88% Republican
Ohio 1  Republican 52.24% Democratic
Ohio 2  Republican 58.30% 55.25%
Ohio 3  Democratic 26.40% Democratic
Ohio 4  Republican 65.30% Republican
Ohio 5  Republican 63.96% Republican
Ohio 6  Republican 69.30% Republican
Ohio 7  Republican 58.70% 55.66%
Ohio 8  Republican 66.60% Republican
Ohio 9  Democratic 32.20% Democratic
Ohio 10  Republican 56.98% Republican
Ohio 11  Democratic 17.80% Democratic
Ohio 12  Republican 52.13% Republican
Ohio 13  Democratic 39.00% Democratic
Ohio 14  Republican 55.20% 52.16%
Ohio 15  Republican 59.49% 56.44%
Ohio 16  Republican 56.70% 53.66%
Oklahoma 1  Republican 59.30% Republican
Oklahoma 2  Republican 68.35% Republican
Oklahoma 3  Republican 73.90% Republican
Oklahoma 4  Republican 65.66% Republican
Oklahoma 5  Democratic 49.30% Republican
Oregon 1  Democratic 33.51% Democratic
Oregon 2  Republican 58.83%
Oregon 3  Democratic 21.49% Democratic
Oregon 4  Democratic 42.21%
Oregon 5  Democratic 43.20%
Pennsylvania 1  Republican 51.30% Democratic
Pennsylvania 2  Democratic 21.00% Democratic
Pennsylvania 3  Democratic 6.60% Democratic
Pennsylvania 4  Democratic 36.50% Democratic
Pennsylvania 5  Democratic 34.80% Democratic
Pennsylvania 6  Democratic 41.10% 41.79%
Pennsylvania 7  Democratic 44.85% Democratic
Pennsylvania 8  Democratic 45.40% Democratic
Pennsylvania 9  Republican 59.70% 60.39%
Pennsylvania 10  Republican 51.30% Republican
Pennsylvania 11  Republican 59.00% 59.69%
Pennsylvania 12  Republican 66.00% Republican
Pennsylvania 13  Republican 70.50% Republican
Pennsylvania 14  Republican 57.90% 58.59%
Pennsylvania 15  Republican 67.80% Republican
Pennsylvania 16  Republican 52.17% Republican
Pennsylvania 17  Democratic 43.70% Democratic
Pennsylvania 18  Democratic N/A Democratic
Rhode Island 1  Democratic 33.10% Democratic
Rhode Island 2  Democratic 36.40% Democratic
South Carolina 1  Democratic 49.30% Republican
South Carolina 2  Republican 56.98% 58.77%
South Carolina 3  Republican 68.62% Republican
South Carolina 4  Republican 61.95% Republican
South Carolina 5  Republican 57.91% 59.70%
South Carolina 6  Democratic 28.73% Democratic
South Carolina 7  Republican 59.60% 61.39%
South Dakota at-large  Republican 62.62% Republican
Tennessee 1  Republican 78.59% Republican
Tennessee 2  Republican 66.57% Republican
Tennessee 3  Republican 64.87% Republican
Tennessee 4  Republican 65.36% Republican
Tennessee 5  Democratic 32.20% Democratic
Tennessee 6  Republican 71.06% Republican
Tennessee 7  Republican 67.58% Republican
Tennessee 8  Republican 69.22% Republican
Tennessee 9  Democratic 19.35% Democratic
Texas 1  Republican 73.33% Republican
Texas 2  Republican 53.66% 51.41%
Texas 3  Republican 55.07% Democratic
Texas 4  Republican 76.70% Republican
Texas 5  Republican 62.40% Republican
Texas 6  Republican 53.91% Republican
Texas 7  Democratic 47.50% Democratic
Texas 8  Republican 74.67% Republican
Texas 9  Democratic N/A Democratic
Texas 10  Republican 52.20% Republican
Texas 11  Republican 81.32% Republican
Texas 12  Republican 65.48% Republican
Texas 13  Republican 82.83% Republican
Texas 14  Republican 60.10% Republican
Texas 15  Democratic 39.39% Democratic
Texas 16  Democratic 28.27% Democratic
Texas 17  Republican 57.90% Republican
Texas 18  Democratic 21.67% Democratic
Texas 19  Republican 75.20% Republican
Texas 20  Democratic N/A Democratic
Texas 21  Republican 51.33% Republican
Texas 22  Republican 52.50% Democratic
Texas 23  Republican 50.26% Democratic
Texas 24  Republican 51.60% Democratic
Texas 25  Republican 54.43% Republican
Texas 26  Republican 60.37% Republican
Texas 27  Republican 62.23% Republican
Texas 28  Democratic N/A Democratic
Texas 29  Democratic 24.14% Democratic
Texas 30  Democratic N/A Democratic
Texas 31  Republican 51.48% Republican
Texas 32  Democratic 46.69% 44.43%
Texas 33  Democratic 22.32% Democratic
Texas 34  Democratic 40.00% 37.75%
Texas 35  Democratic 26.72% Democratic
Texas 36  Republican 72.60% Republican
Utah 1  Republican 71.21% Republican
Utah 2  Republican 59.05% Republican
Utah 3  Republican 71.20% Republican
Utah 4  Democratic 49.90% Republican
Vermont at-large  Democratic 27.31% Democratic
Virginia 1  Republican 55.20% 50.82%
Virginia 2  Democratic 48.90% Democratic
Virginia 3  Democratic N/A Democratic
Virginia 4  Democratic 36.51% Democratic
Virginia 5  Republican 53.30% Democratic
Virginia 6  Republican 59.80% 55.42%
Virginia 7  Democratic 48.99% 44.60%
Virginia 8  Democratic 23.70% Democratic
Virginia 9  Republican 65.20% Republican
Virginia 10  Democratic 43.80% Democratic
Virginia 11  Democratic 27.49% Democratic
Washington 1  Democratic 40.70% 39.04%
Washington 2  Democratic N/A Democratic
Washington 3  Republican 52.70% Republican
Washington 4  Republican 62.80% Republican
Washington 5  Republican 54.80% 53.14%
Washington 6  Democratic 36.10% Democratic
Washington 7  Democratic 16.40% Democratic
Washington 8  Democratic 47.60% 45.94%
Washington 9  Democratic N/A Democratic
Washington 10  Democratic 38.50% Democratic
West Virginia 1  Republican 64.60% Republican
West Virginia 2  Republican 55.67%
West Virginia 3  Republican 56.40%
Wisconsin 1  Republican 56.35% Republican
Wisconsin 2  Democratic N/A Democratic
Wisconsin 3  Democratic 40.30% 39.64%
Wisconsin 4  Democratic 22.28% Democratic
Wisconsin 5  Republican 62.00% Republican
Wisconsin 6  Republican 55.50% 54.84%
Wisconsin 7  Republican 60.94% Republican
Wisconsin 8  Republican 63.70% Republican
Wyoming at-large  Republican 68.13% Republican

Prediction

DISTRICT INCUMBENT PREDICTION
Alabama 1 Republican Republican
Alabama 2 Republican Republican
Alabama 3 Republican Republican
Alabama 4 Republican Republican
Alabama 5 Republican Republican
Alabama 6 Republican Republican
Alabama 7 Democratic Democratic
Alaska at-large Republican Republican
Arizona 1 Democratic Democratic
Arizona 2 Democratic Democratic
Arizona 3 Democratic Democratic
Arizona 4 Republican Republican
Arizona 5 Republican Republican
Arizona 6 Republican Democratic
Arizona 7  Democratic Democratic
Arizona 8  Republican Democratic
Arizona 9  Democratic Democratic
Arkansas 1  Republican Republican
Arkansas 2  Republican Democratic
Arkansas 3  Republican Republican
Arkansas 4  Republican Republican
California 1  Republican Republican
California 2  Democratic Democratic
California 3  Democratic Democratic
California 4  Republican Republican
California 5  Democratic Democratic
California 6  Democratic Democratic
California 7  Democratic Democratic
California 8  Republican Republican
California 9  Democratic Democratic
California 10  Democratic Republican
California 11  Democratic Democratic
California 12  Democratic Democratic
California 13  Democratic Democratic
California 14  Democratic Democratic
California 15  Democratic Democratic
California 16  Democratic Democratic
California 17  Democratic Democratic
California 18  Democratic Democratic
California 19  Democratic Democratic
California 20  Democratic Democratic
California 21  Democratic Republican
California 22  Republican Republican
California 23  Republican Republican
California 24  Democratic Democratic
California 25  Democratic Democratic
California 26  Democratic Democratic
California 27  Democratic Democratic
California 28  Democratic Democratic
California 29  Democratic Democratic
California 30  Democratic Democratic
California 31  Democratic Democratic
California 32  Democratic Democratic
California 33  Democratic Democratic
California 34  Democratic Democratic
California 35  Democratic Democratic
California 36  Democratic Democratic
California 37  Democratic Democratic
California 38  Democratic Democratic
California 39  Democratic Republican
California 40  Democratic Democratic
California 41  Democratic Democratic
California 42  Republican Republican
California 43  Democratic Democratic
California 44  Democratic Democratic
California 45  Democratic Republican
California 46  Democratic Democratic
California 47  Democratic Democratic
California 48  Democratic Republican
California 49  Democratic Democratic
California 50  Republican Republican
California 51  Democratic Democratic
California 52  Democratic Democratic
California 53  Democratic Democratic
Colorado 1  Democratic Democratic
Colorado 2  Democratic Democratic
Colorado 3  Republican Democratic
Colorado 4  Republican Republican
Colorado 5  Republican Republican
Colorado 6  Democratic Democratic
Colorado 7  Democratic Democratic
Connecticut 1  Democratic Democratic
Connecticut 2  Democratic Democratic
Connecticut 3  Democratic Democratic
Connecticut 4  Democratic Democratic
Connecticut 5  Democratic Democratic
Delaware at-large  Democratic Democratic
Florida 1  Republican Republican
Florida 2  Republican Republican
Florida 3  Republican Republican
Florida 4  Republican Republican
Florida 5  Democratic Democratic
Florida 6  Republican Republican
Florida 7  Democratic Democratic
Florida 8  Republican Republican
Florida 9  Democratic Democratic
Florida 10  Democratic Democratic
Florida 11  Republican Republican
Florida 12  Republican Republican
Florida 13  Democratic Democratic
Florida 14  Democratic Democratic
Florida 15  Republican Republican
Florida 16  Republican Republican
Florida 17  Republican Republican
Florida 18  Republican Democratic
Florida 19  Republican Republican
Florida 20  Democratic Democratic
Florida 21  Democratic Democratic
Florida 22  Democratic Democratic
Florida 23  Democratic Democratic
Florida 24  Democratic Democratic
Florida 25  Republican Republican
Florida 26  Democratic Republican
Florida 27  Democratic Democratic
Georgia 1  Republican Republican
Georgia 2  Democratic Democratic
Georgia 3  Republican Republican
Georgia 4  Democratic Democratic
Georgia 5  Democratic Democratic
Georgia 6  Democratic Democratic
Georgia 7  Republican Democratic
Georgia 8  Republican Republican
Georgia 9  Republican Republican
Georgia 10  Republican Republican
Georgia 11  Republican Republican
Georgia 12  Republican Republican
Georgia 13  Democratic Democratic
Georgia 14  Republican Republican
Hawaii 1  Democratic Democratic
Hawaii 2  Democratic Democratic
Idaho 1  Republican Republican
Idaho 2  Republican Republican
Illinois 1  Democratic Democratic
Illinois 2  Democratic Democratic
Illinois 3  Democratic Democratic
Illinois 4  Democratic Democratic
Illinois 5  Democratic Democratic
Illinois 6  Democratic Republican
Illinois 7  Democratic Democratic
Illinois 8  Democratic Democratic
Illinois 9  Democratic Democratic
Illinois 10  Democratic Democratic
Illinois 11  Democratic Democratic
Illinois 12  Republican Republican
Illinois 13  Republican Democratic
Illinois 14  Democratic Republican
Illinois 15  Republican Republican
Illinois 16  Republican Republican
Illinois 17  Democratic Democratic
Illinois 18  Republican Republican
Indiana 1  Democratic Democratic
Indiana 2  Republican Democratic
Indiana 3  Republican Republican
Indiana 4  Republican Republican
Indiana 5  Republican Democratic
Indiana 6  Republican Republican
Indiana 7  Democratic Democratic
Indiana 8  Republican Republican
Indiana 9  Republican Democratic
Iowa 1  Democratic Democratic
Iowa 2  Democratic Democratic
Iowa 3  Democratic Democratic
Iowa 4  Republican Republican
Kansas 1  Republican Republican
Kansas 2  Republican Republican
Kansas 3  Democratic Democratic
Kansas 4  Republican Republican
Kentucky 1  Republican Republican
Kentucky 2  Republican Republican
Kentucky 3  Democratic Democratic
Kentucky 4  Republican Republican
Kentucky 5  Republican Republican
Kentucky 6  Republican Democratic
Louisiana 1  Republican Republican
Louisiana 2  Democratic Democratic
Louisiana 3  Republican Republican
Louisiana 4  Republican Republican
Louisiana 5  Republican Republican
Louisiana 6  Republican Republican
Maine 1  Democratic Democratic
Maine 2  Republican Democratic
Maryland 1  Republican Republican
Maryland 2  Democratic Democratic
Maryland 3  Democratic Democratic
Maryland 4  Democratic Democratic
Maryland 5  Democratic Democratic
Maryland 6  Democratic Democratic
Maryland 7  Democratic Democratic
Maryland 8  Democratic Democratic
Massachusetts 1  Democratic Democratic
Massachusetts 2  Democratic Democratic
Massachusetts 3  Democratic Democratic
Massachusetts 4  Democratic Democratic
Massachusetts 5  Democratic Democratic
Massachusetts 6  Democratic Democratic
Massachusetts 7  Democratic Democratic
Massachusetts 8  Democratic Democratic
Massachusetts 9  Democratic Democratic
Michigan 1  Republican Democratic
Michigan 2  Republican Democratic
Michigan 3  Republican Democratic
Michigan 4  Republican Republican
Michigan 5  Democratic Democratic
Michigan 6  Republican Democratic
Michigan 7  Republican Democratic
Michigan 8  Democratic Democratic
Michigan 9  Democratic Democratic
Michigan 10  Republican Republican
Michigan 11  Democratic Democratic
Michigan 12  Democratic Democratic
Michigan 13  Democratic Democratic
Michigan 14  Democratic Democratic
Minnesota 1  Republican Republican
Minnesota 2  Democratic Democratic
Minnesota 3  Democratic Democratic
Minnesota 4  Democratic Democratic
Minnesota 5  Democratic Democratic
Minnesota 6  Republican Republican
Minnesota 7  Democratic Republican
Minnesota 8  Republican Republican
Mississippi 1  Republican Republican
Mississippi 2  Democratic Democratic
Mississippi 3  Republican Republican
Mississippi 4  Republican Republican
Missouri 1  Democratic Democratic
Missouri 2  Republican Republican
Missouri 3  Republican Republican
Missouri 4  Republican Republican
Missouri 5  Democratic Democratic
Missouri 6  Republican Republican
Missouri 7  Republican Republican
Missouri 8  Republican Republican
Montana at-large  Republican Republican
Nebraska 1  Republican Republican
Nebraska 2  Republican Republican
Nebraska 3  Republican Republican
Nevada 1  Democratic Democratic
Nevada 2  Republican Republican
Nevada 3  Democratic Democratic
Nevada 4  Democratic Democratic
New Hampshire 1  Democratic Republican
New Hampshire 2  Democratic Democratic
New Jersey 1  Democratic Democratic
New Jersey 2  Democratic Democratic
New Jersey 3  Democratic Democratic
New Jersey 4  Republican Republican
New Jersey 5  Democratic Democratic
New Jersey 6  Democratic Democratic
New Jersey 7  Democratic Republican
New Jersey 8  Democratic Democratic
New Jersey 9  Democratic Democratic
New Jersey 10  Democratic Democratic
New Jersey 11  Democratic Democratic
New Jersey 12  Democratic Democratic
New Mexico 1  Democratic Democratic
New Mexico 2  Democratic Republican
New Mexico 3  Democratic Democratic
New York 1  Republican Republican
New York 2  Republican Republican
New York 3  Democratic Democratic
New York 4  Democratic Democratic
New York 5  Democratic Democratic
New York 6  Democratic Democratic
New York 7  Democratic Democratic
New York 8  Democratic Democratic
New York 9  Democratic Democratic
New York 10  Democratic Democratic
New York 11  Democratic Democratic
New York 12  Democratic Democratic
New York 13  Democratic Democratic
New York 14  Democratic Democratic
New York 15  Democratic Democratic
New York 16  Democratic Democratic
New York 17  Democratic Democratic
New York 18  Democratic Democratic
New York 19  Democratic Democratic
New York 20  Democratic Democratic
New York 21  Republican Republican
New York 22  Democratic Democratic
New York 23  Republican Republican
New York 24  Republican Republican
New York 25  Democratic Democratic
New York 26  Democratic Democratic
New York 27  Republican Democratic
North Carolina 1  Democratic Democratic
North Carolina 2  Republican Democratic
North Carolina 3  Republican Republican
North Carolina 4  Democratic Democratic
North Carolina 5  Republican Republican
North Carolina 6  Republican Republican
North Carolina 7  Republican Republican
North Carolina 8  Republican Democratic
North Carolina 9  Republican Republican
North Carolina 10  Republican Republican
North Carolina 11  Republican Democratic
North Carolina 12  Democratic Democratic
North Carolina 13  Republican Democratic
North Dakota at-large  Republican Republican
Ohio 1  Republican Democratic
Ohio 2  Republican Republican
Ohio 3  Democratic Democratic
Ohio 4  Republican Republican
Ohio 5  Republican Republican
Ohio 6  Republican Republican
Ohio 7  Republican Republican
Ohio 8  Republican Republican
Ohio 9  Democratic Democratic
Ohio 10  Republican Republican
Ohio 11  Democratic Democratic
Ohio 12  Republican Republican
Ohio 13  Democratic Democratic
Ohio 14  Republican Republican
Ohio 15  Republican Republican
Ohio 16  Republican Republican
Oklahoma 1  Republican Republican
Oklahoma 2  Republican Republican
Oklahoma 3  Republican Republican
Oklahoma 4  Republican Republican
Oklahoma 5  Democratic Republican
Oregon 1  Democratic Democratic
Oregon 2  Republican Republican
Oregon 3  Democratic Democratic
Oregon 4  Democratic Democratic
Oregon 5  Democratic Democratic
Pennsylvania 1  Republican Democratic
Pennsylvania 2  Democratic Democratic
Pennsylvania 3  Democratic Democratic
Pennsylvania 4  Democratic Democratic
Pennsylvania 5  Democratic Democratic
Pennsylvania 6  Democratic Democratic
Pennsylvania 7  Democratic Democratic
Pennsylvania 8  Democratic Democratic
Pennsylvania 9  Republican Republican
Pennsylvania 10  Republican Republican
Pennsylvania 11  Republican Republican
Pennsylvania 12  Republican Republican
Pennsylvania 13  Republican Republican
Pennsylvania 14  Republican Republican
Pennsylvania 15  Republican Republican
Pennsylvania 16  Republican Republican
Pennsylvania 17  Democratic Democratic
Pennsylvania 18  Democratic Democratic
Rhode Island 1  Democratic Democratic
Rhode Island 2  Democratic Democratic
South Carolina 1  Democratic Republican
South Carolina 2  Republican Republican
South Carolina 3  Republican Republican
South Carolina 4  Republican Republican
South Carolina 5  Republican Republican
South Carolina 6  Democratic Democratic
South Carolina 7  Republican Republican
South Dakota at-large  Republican Republican
Tennessee 1  Republican Republican
Tennessee 2  Republican Republican
Tennessee 3  Republican Republican
Tennessee 4  Republican Republican
Tennessee 5  Democratic Democratic
Tennessee 6  Republican Republican
Tennessee 7  Republican Republican
Tennessee 8  Republican Republican
Tennessee 9  Democratic Democratic
Texas 1  Republican Republican
Texas 2  Republican Republican
Texas 3  Republican Democratic
Texas 4  Republican Republican
Texas 5  Republican Republican
Texas 6  Republican Republican
Texas 7  Democratic Democratic
Texas 8  Republican Republican
Texas 9  Democratic Democratic
Texas 10  Republican Republican
Texas 11  Republican Republican
Texas 12  Republican Republican
Texas 13  Republican Republican
Texas 14  Republican Republican
Texas 15  Democratic Democratic
Texas 16  Democratic Democratic
Texas 17  Republican Republican
Texas 18  Democratic Democratic
Texas 19  Republican Republican
Texas 20  Democratic Democratic
Texas 21  Republican Republican
Texas 22  Republican Democratic
Texas 23  Republican Democratic
Texas 24  Republican Democratic
Texas 25  Republican Republican
Texas 26  Republican Republican
Texas 27  Republican Republican
Texas 28  Democratic Democratic
Texas 29  Democratic Democratic
Texas 30  Democratic Democratic
Texas 31  Republican Republican
Texas 32  Democratic Democratic
Texas 33  Democratic Democratic
Texas 34  Democratic Democratic
Texas 35  Democratic Democratic
Texas 36  Republican Republican
Utah 1  Republican Republican
Utah 2  Republican Republican
Utah 3  Republican Republican
Utah 4  Democratic Republican
Vermont at-large  Democratic Democratic
Virginia 1  Republican Republican
Virginia 2  Democratic Democratic
Virginia 3  Democratic Democratic
Virginia 4  Democratic Democratic
Virginia 5  Republican Democratic
Virginia 6  Republican Republican
Virginia 7  Democratic Democratic
Virginia 8  Democratic Democratic
Virginia 9  Republican Republican
Virginia 10  Democratic Democratic
Virginia 11  Democratic Democratic
Washington 1  Democratic Democratic
Washington 2  Democratic Democratic
Washington 3  Republican Republican
Washington 4  Republican Republican
Washington 5  Republican Republican
Washington 6  Democratic Democratic
Washington 7  Democratic Democratic
Washington 8  Democratic Democratic
Washington 9  Democratic Democratic
Washington 10  Democratic Democratic
West Virginia 1  Republican Republican
West Virginia 2  Republican Republican
West Virginia 3  Republican Republican
Wisconsin 1  Republican Republican
Wisconsin 2  Democratic Democratic
Wisconsin 3  Democratic Democratic
Wisconsin 4  Democratic Democratic
Wisconsin 5  Republican Republican
Wisconsin 6  Republican Republican
Wisconsin 7  Republican Republican
Wisconsin 8  Republican Republican
Wyoming at-large  Republican Republican