A Short Summary on Wentworth

It is traditional on this blog to follow each prediction (eventually) with an analysis of how accurate the prediction was, why it went wrong and perhaps how improvement could be made.

With the wentworthby-election, however, there isn't all that much to say. The margin by which Kerryn Phelps won was larger than expected on the night, though reigned in somewhat by postal votes. Other than that the result was as I had expected and for the reasons I expected. A safe liberal seat saw an independent outpoll the ALP while feeding on a general dissatisfaction in the electorate towards the Liberal party. When the independent outpolled the ALP (and, for that matter, the Greens) they scooped up the vast majority of preferences to outperform the Liberals in the final count.

That Phelps came so close to rivalling the Liberal primary vote outright was a surprise based on the polling availible at the time, but the reasons for her popularity in the area and the reasons that the Liberal party was unpopular in the seat have been well known for a while.

As a result, theres nothing more to do but enjoy a successful prediction before we geat up to look at the US midterms on the 6th of November and the Victorian state elections on the 24th.