Sunday, 22 August 2010

Backdated - Senate Calculations

(Chances are you don't care, even if you are looking at this page. Still, I enjoyed it.)

Assuming everyone in Australia voted above the line (and that, sadly, is almost accurate), and not counting ungrouped independants (for whom you MUST vote below the line), I have taken the senate statistics from the Australian Electoral Commission website and plugged them into Antony Green's senate calculator.

This allocates preferences based on the group tickets to give a prediction on the Australian Senate. If, as usual, > 95% of people voted above the line then this model will be > 95% accurate. Of the 76 seats in the senate, 36 carry over from 2007 (six from each state, none from either territory). Of the remaining 40, only 10 are in doubt, with 30 seats being known on first preferences alone (i.e. regardless of whether or not people voted above or below the line). The actual results will not be known for weeks, but this should be a reliable guide:


Senators of 2010

1 Alex GALLACHER Australian Labor Party
2 Mary Jo FISHER Liberal Party
3 Anne McEWEN Australian Labor Party
4 Sean EDWARDS Liberal Party
5 Penny WRIGHT Australian Greens (in doubt)
6 David FAWCETT Liberal Party (in doubt)

Senators of 2007

1 Don FARRELL Australian Labor Party
2 Cory BERNARDI Liberal Party
3 Nick XENOPHON Independent
4 Penny WONG Australian Labor Party
5 Simon BIRMINGHAM Liberal Party
6 Sarah HANSON-YOUNG Australian Greens


Senators of 2010

1 Concetta FIERRAVANTI-WELLS Liberal Party
2 John FAULKNER Australian Labor Party
3 William HEFFERNAN Liberal Party
4 Matthew THISTLETHWAITE Australian Labor Party
5 Fiona NASH The Nationals (in doubt)
6 Lee RHIANNON Australian Greens (in doubt)

Senators of 2007

1 Mark ARBIB Australian Labor Party
2 Helen COONAN Liberal Party
3 Doug CAMERON Australian Labor Party
4 John WILLIAMS The Nationals
5 Marise PAYNE Liberal Party
6 Ursula STEPHENS Australian Labor Party


Senators of 2010

1 Kim John CARR Australian Labor Party
2 Michael RONALDSON Liberal Party
3 Richard DI NATALE Australian Greens
4 Stephen Michael CONROY Australian Labor Party
5 Bridget McKENZIE The Nationals
6 John MADIGAN DLP - Democratic Labor Party (in doubt)

Senators of 2007

1 Jacinta COLLINS Australian Labor Party
2 Mitch FIFIELD Liberal Party
3 Gavin MARSHALL Australian Labor Party
4 Helen KROGER Liberal Party
5 Scott RYAN Liberal Party
6 David FEENEY Australian Labor Party


Senators of 2010

1 George Henry BRANDIS Liberal National
2 Joe LUDWIG Australian Labor Party
3 Barnaby JOYCE Liberal National
4 Jan McLUCAS Australian Labor Party
5 Larissa WATERS Australian Greens (in doubt)
6 Brett MASON Liberal National (in doubt)

Senators of 2007

1 Ian MACDONALD Liberal National
2 John HOGG Australian Labor Party
3 Sue BOYCE Liberal National
4 Claire MOORE Australian Labor Party
5 Ron BOSWELL Liberal National
6 Mark FURNER Australian Labor Party


Senators of 2010

1 Mathias CORMANN Liberal Party
2 Chris EVANS Australian Labor Party
3 Chris BACK Liberal Party
4 Glenn STERLE Australian Labor Party
5 Judith ADAMS Liberal Party
6 Rachel SIEWERT Australian Greens (in doubt)

Senators of 2007

1 David JOHNSTON Liberal Party
2 Louise PRATT Australian Labor Party
3 Alan EGGLESTON Liberal Party
4 Mark BISHOP Australian Labor Party
5 Michaelia CASH Liberal Party
6 Scott LUDLAM Australian Greens


Senators of 2010

1 Helen POLLEY Australian Labor Party
2 Eric ABETZ Liberal Party
3 Christine MILNE Australian Greens
4 Anne URQUHART Australian Labor Party
5 Stephen Shane PARRY Liberal Party
6 Lisa SINGH Australian Labor Party

Senators of 2007

1 Nick SHERRY Australian Labor Party
2 Richard COLBECK Liberal Party
3 Bob BROWN Australian Greens
4 Carol BROWN Australian Labor Party
5 David BUSHYBY Liberal Party
6 Catryna BILYK Australian Labor Party (in doubt)


Senators of 2010

1 Kate Alexandra LUNDY Australian Labor Party
2 Gary HUMPHRIES Liberal Party (in doubt)


Senators of 2010

1 Nigel SCULLION Country Liberal Party
2 Trish CROSSIN Australian Labor Party

1 comment:

  1. PsephologyKid, Aug 23:

    Data found at: Australian Electoral Commission "virtual tally room";

    Antony Green's Senate calculator:

    PsephologyKid, Aug 23:


    ALP 31 (30 confirmed)
    LNC 34 (30 confirmed)
    Grn 9 (5 confirmed)
    Ind 1 (1 confirmed)
    DLP 1 (0 confirmed)

    TOTAL: 76 (66 confirmed)