Tempus Fugit

As seems to be the nature of this blog, it is time for a short burst of activity following a lengthy hiatus. Circumstances have not allowed me to update the results of the March WA election, and since then several contests I should like to have examined have passed.

Iran and South Korea's elections, potentially reflecting a response to the election of Donald Trump and conflict in their respective regions would have been topical, plus the South Korean election had the bizarre circumstances surrounding Park Geun-Hye's impeachment for a bit of interest—a tale involving corruption, a 4% approval rating, and a spirit medium. Then, of course, there was the unusually prominent French election, won by Macron. However, as the UK national election draws close and a fragment of free time provides itself, I feel I must at least provide some analysis of the contests I have historically considered. First, however, a quick review of my woeful WA state election predictions:

A Quick Review of my Woeful WA State Election Predictions

The swing to the Western Australian Labor Party was large and inevitable. That much was apparent before the polls even opened. My Legislative Assembly estimates erred on the conservative side (both in the sense of assuming a more modest swing than eventuated, and in the sense that I gave the Coalition more seats than they ended up winning.) This was the result of taking the breadth of available polling as “the outer limits of possible results” while, as with the US elections and Brexit and, it seems, every election these days the polling proved to be way off. I gave the ALP 32 of the 59 seats. The most pro-ALP polling used would have given them 34. Some commentators were certainly predicting more, but I had no data available to support that. In the end, the ALP won 41 of the 59 seats:

Electorate	Prior Incumbent	Prediction	Result
Albany	ALP	ALP	ALP
Armadale	ALP	ALP	ALP
Balcatta	LIB	ALP	ALP
Baldivis	ALP	ALP	ALP
Bassendean	ALP	ALP	ALP
Bateman	LIB	LIB	LIB
Belmont	LIB	ALP	ALP
Bicton	LIB	ALP	ALP
Bunbury	LIB	LIB	ALP
Burns Beach	LIB	LIB	ALP
Butler	ALP	ALP	ALP
Cannington	ALP	ALP	ALP
Carine	LIB	LIB	LIB
Central Wheatbelt	NAT	NAT	NAT
Churchlands	LIB	LIB	LIB
Cockburn	ALP	ALP	ALP
Collie-Preston	ALP	ALP	ALP
Cottesloe	LIB	LIB	LIB
Darling Range	LIB	LIB	ALP
Dawesville	LIB	LIB	LIB
Forrestfield	LIB	ALP	ALP
Fremantle	ALP	ALP	ALP
Geraldton	LIB	LIB	LIB
Girrawheen	ALP	ALP	ALP
Hillarys	LIB	LIB	LIB
Jandakot	LIB	LIB	ALP
Joondalup	LIB	ALP	ALP
Kalamunda	LIB	LIB	ALP
Kalgoorlie	NAT	NAT	LIB
Kimberley	ALP	ALP	ALP
Kingsley	LIB	LIB	ALP
Kwinana	ALP	ALP	ALP
Mandurah	ALP	ALP	ALP
Maylands	ALP	ALP	ALP
Midland	ALP	ALP	ALP
Mirrabooka	ALP	ALP	ALP
Moore	NAT	NAT	NAT
Morley	LIB	ALP	ALP
Mount Lawley	LIB	ALP	ALP
Murray-Wellington	LIB	LIB	ALP
Nedlands	LIB	LIB	LIB
North West Central	NAT	NAT	NAT
Perth	LIB	ALP	ALP
Pilbara	NAT	NAT	ALP
Riverton	LIB	LIB	LIB
Rockingham	ALP	ALP	ALP
Roe	NAT	NAT	NAT
Scarborough	LIB	LIB	LIB
South Perth	LIB	LIB	LIB
Southern River	LIB	ALP	ALP
Swan Hills	LIB	ALP	ALP
Thornlie	ALP	ALP	ALP
Vasse	LIB	LIB	LIB
Victoria Park	ALP	ALP	ALP
Wanneroo	LIB	LIB	ALP
Warnbro	ALP	ALP	ALP
Warren-Blackwood	NAT	NAT	NAT
West Swan	ALP	ALP	ALP
Willagee	ALP	ALP	ALP

Pleasingly, however, the only inter-Coalition contest I got wrong was Kalgoorlie, which I had identified as a significant outlier based on its electoral history. So perhaps I'm not a pretty face [sic]. This and the 9 additional ALP wins were the only mistakes, however, giving me a success rating of 49/59, or 83%.

In the Legislative Council I had a similarly sub-par result. In each LegCo district I correctly predicted 4 of the 6 candidates except North Metro where I scored 5 of 6:

EAST METROPOLITAN
Predicted		Elected
Tim Clifford	Greens	Tim Clifford	Greens
Alanna Clohesy	Labor	Alanna Clohesy	Labor
Donna Faragher	Liberal	Donna Faragher	Liberal
Alyssa Hayden	Liberal	Charles Smith	One Nation
Samantha Rowe	Labor	Samantha Rowe	Labor
John Watt	Fluoride Free	Matthew Swinbourn	Labor
NORTH METROPOLITAN
Predicted		Elected
Peter Collier	Liberal	Peter Collier	Liberal
Henry Heng	Family First	Tjorn Sibma	Liberal
Michael Mischin	Liberal	Michael Mischin	Liberal
Martin Pritchard	Labor	Martin Pritchard	Labor
Alannah MacTiernan	Labor	Alannah MacTiernan	Labor
Alison Xamon	Greens	Alison Xamon	Greens
SOUTH METROPOLITAN
Predicted		Elected
Kate Doust	Labor	Kate Doust	Labor
Sue Ellery	Labor	Sue Ellery	Labor
Nick Goiran	Liberal	Nick Goiran	Liberal
Lynn MacLaren	Greens	Aaron Stonehouse	Lib Dem
Simon O'Brien	Liberal	Simon O'Brien	Liberal
Wilson Tucker	Daylight Saving	Pierre Yang	Labor
AGRICULTURAL
Predicted		Elected
Jim Chown	Liberal	Jim Chown	Liberal
Laurie Graham	Labor	Laurie Graham	Labor
Steve Martin	Liberal	Martin Aldridge	National
Rick Mazza	Shooters	Rick Mazza	Shooters
Darren West	Labor	Darren West	Labor
Connor Whittle	Lib Dem	Colin de Grussa	National
MINING AND PASTORAL
Predicted		Elected
Ken Baston	Liberal	Ken Baston	Liberal
Robin Chapple	Greens	Robin Chapple	Greens
Stephen Dawson	Labor	Stephen Dawson	Labor
Kyle McGinn	Labor	Kyle McGinn	Labor
Mark Lewis	Liberal	Jacqui Boydell	National
Kai Shanks	Flux	Robin Scott	One Nation
SOUTH WEST
Predicted		Elected
Wade De Campo	Liberal	Colin Halt	National
Diane Evers	Greens	Diane Evers	Greens
Adele Farina	Labor	Adele Farina	Labor
Hayley Green	Fluoride Free	Colin Tincknell	One Nation
Sally Talbot	Labor	Sally Talbot	Labor
Steve Thomas	Liberal	Steve Thomas	Liberal

This comes to 25/36, or 69% success. Quite poor.

On a whole-house, party basis this resulted in 9 errors: 1 Daylight Saving, 1 Family First, 2 Fluoride Free, 1 Flux, 1 Greens and 3 Liberal predictions were replaced by 2 ALP members, 4 Nationals and 3 One Nation – the latter two being parties I expected to win some of the late-preference seats without knowing where or how many.

WA LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL
Predicted	Elected
Daylight Saving	1
Family First	2
Fluoride Free	3
Fluoride Free	4
Flux	5
Greens	Greens
Greens	Greens
Greens	Greens
Greens	Greens
Greens	6
Labor	Labor
Labor	Labor
Labor	Labor
Labor	Labor
Labor	Labor
Labor	Labor
Labor	Labor
Labor	Labor
Labor	Labor
Labor	Labor
Labor	Labor
Labor	Labor
1	Labor
2	Labor
Lib Dem	Lib Dem
Liberal	Liberal
Liberal	Liberal
Liberal	Liberal
Liberal	Liberal
Liberal	Liberal
Liberal	Liberal
Liberal	Liberal
Liberal	Liberal
Liberal	Liberal
Liberal	7
Liberal	8
Liberal	9
3	National
4	National
5	National
6	National
7	One Nation
8	One Nation
9	One Nation
Shooters	Shooters

And that concludes the revision of my well-off-the-mark predictions from March. Perhaps my guesses on the UK election will be marginally more accurate?