In these 80 seats, we can apply a similar method to that we used for 2 party races, but based on 3-way splits of the vote (the 3P%) and the following calculations:
| CONTEST | LAST ELECTION (VOTES) | RECENT POLL (%) | SWING | |||||||||||||||||
| Party 1 | Party 2 | Party 3 | Party 1 | % | Party 2 | % | Party 3 | % | Party 1 | % | Party 2 | % | Party 3 | % | Percentage Points | |||||
| Conservative | Green | Labour | 11,299,959 | 51.83% | 1,157,613 | 5.31% | 9,344,328 | 42.86% | 45 | 54.88% | 3 | 3.66% | 34 | 41.46% | Conservative | +3.05 | Green | -1.65 | Labour | -1.40 |
| Conservative | Labour | Lib Dem | 11,299,959 | 49.00% | 9,344,328 | 40.52% | 2,415,888 | 10.48% | 45 | 51.72% | 34 | 39.08% | 8 | 9.20% | Conservative | +2.72 | Labour | -1.44 | Lib Dem | -1.28 |
| Conservative | Labour | Scottish National | 434,097 | 16.72% | 707,147 | 27.24% | 1,454,436 | 56.03% | 27 | 29.35% | 25 | 27.17% | 40 | 43.48% | Conservative | +12.62 | Labour | -0.07 | Scottish National | -12.55 |
| Conservative | Labour | UKIP | 11,299,959 | 46.07% | 9,344,328 | 38.10% | 3,881,129 | 15.82% | 45 | 53.57% | 34 | 40.48% | 5 | 5.95% | Conservative | +7.50 | Labour | +2.38 | UKIP | -9.87 |
| Conservative | Lib Dem | UKIP | 11,299,959 | 64.22% | 2,415,888 | 13.73% | 3,881,129 | 22.06% | 45 | 77.59% | 8 | 13.79% | 5 | 8.62% | Conservative | +13.37 | Lib Dem | +0.06 | UKIP | -13.43 |
| Labour | Lib Dem | UKIP | 9,344,328 | 59.74% | 2,415,888 | 15.45% | 3,881,129 | 24.81% | 34 | 72.34% | 8 | 17.02% | 5 | 10.64% | Labour | +12.60 | Lib Dem | +1.58 | UKIP | -14.17 |
| Labour | Plaid Cymru | UKIP | 552,473 | 58.87% | 181,704 | 19.36% | 204,330 | 36.98% | 46 | 77.97% | 8 | 13.56% | 5 | 10.66% | Labour | +19.10 | Plaid Cymru | -5.80 | UKIP | -26.33 |
| Alliance | Social Democrat | Unionist | 61,556 | 17.81% | 99,809 | 28.88% | 184,260 | 53.31% | 9.8 | 18.74% | 13.7 | 26.20% | 28.8 | 55.07% | Alliance | +0.93 | Social Democrat | -2.68 | Unionist | +1.75 |
| Alliance | Ulster | Unionist | 61,556 | 17.68% | 102,361 | 29.40% | 184,260 | 52.92% | 9.8 | 18.01% | 15.8 | 29.04% | 28.8 | 52.94% | Alliance | +0.34 | Ulster | -0.36 | Unionist | +0.02 |
| Sinn Féin | Social Democrat | Unionist | 176,232 | 38.29% | 99,809 | 21.68% | 184,260 | 40.03% | 27.9 | 39.63% | 13.7 | 19.46% | 28.8 | 40.91% | Sinn Féin | +1.34 | Social Democrat | -2.22 | Unionist | +0.88 |
| Sinn Féin | Ulster | Unionist | 176,232 | 38.08% | 102,361 | 22.12% | 184,260 | 39.81% | 27.9 | 38.48% | 15.8 | 21.79% | 28.8 | 39.72% | Sinn Féin | +0.41 | Ulster | -0.32 | Unionist | -0.09 |
Which we apply like so:
| Constituency | Incumbent | Second Party | Third Party | Modifiers | Prediction | |||||||||
| Party | Votes | 3P% | Party | Votes | 3P% | Party | Votes | 3P% | Incumbent | Second | Third | Party | Vote Share | |
| Aldershot | Conservative | 23,369 | 58.29% | Labour | 8,468 | 21.12% | UKIP | 8,253 | 20.59% | +7.50 | +2.38 | -9.87 | Conservative | 65.79% |
| Ashfield | Labour | 19,448 | 48.35% | Conservative | 10,628 | 26.42% | UKIP | 10,150 | 25.23% | +2.38 | +7.50 | -9.87 | Labour | 50.73% |
| Ashford | Conservative | 30,094 | 58.47% | UKIP | 10,798 | 20.98% | Labour | 10,580 | 20.55% | +7.50 | -9.87 | +2.38 | Conservative | 65.97% |
| Ashton-under-Lyne | Labour | 19,366 | 53.14% | Conservative | 8,610 | 23.63% | UKIP | 8,468 | 23.24% | +2.38 | +7.50 | -9.87 | Labour | 55.52% |
| Belfast South | Social Democrat | 9,560 | 38.36% | Unionist | 8,654 | 34.72% | Alliance | 6,711 | 26.92% | -2.68 | +1.75 | +0.93 | Unionist | 36.47% |
| Birmingham Hodge Hill | Labour | 28,069 | 75.00% | Conservative | 4,707 | 12.58% | UKIP | 4,651 | 12.43% | +2.38 | +7.50 | -9.87 | Labour | 77.38% |
| Blackley & Broughton | Labour | 22,982 | 66.29% | UKIP | 6,108 | 17.62% | Conservative | 5,581 | 16.10% | +2.38 | -9.87 | +7.50 | Labour | 68.67% |
| Blaydon | Labour | 22,090 | 58.45% | UKIP | 7,863 | 20.81% | Conservative | 7,838 | 20.74% | +2.38 | -9.87 | +7.50 | Labour | 60.83% |
| Blyth Valley | Labour | 17,813 | 51.27% | UKIP | 8,584 | 24.71% | Conservative | 8,346 | 24.02% | +2.38 | -9.87 | +7.50 | Labour | 53.65% |
| Bournemouth East | Conservative | 22,060 | 59.77% | Labour | 7,448 | 20.18% | UKIP | 7,401 | 20.05% | +7.50 | +2.38 | -9.87 | Conservative | 67.27% |
| Bournemouth West | Conservative | 20,155 | 57.12% | UKIP | 7,745 | 21.95% | Labour | 7,386 | 20.93% | +7.50 | -9.87 | +2.38 | Conservative | 64.62% |
| Bracknell | Conservative | 29,606 | 63.12% | Labour | 8,956 | 19.10% | UKIP | 8,339 | 17.78% | +7.50 | +2.38 | -9.87 | Conservative | 70.62% |
| Bradford South | Labour | 16,328 | 46.30% | Conservative | 9,878 | 28.01% | UKIP | 9,057 | 25.68% | +2.38 | +7.50 | -9.87 | Labour | 48.68% |
| Braintree | Conservative | 27,071 | 59.07% | UKIP | 9,461 | 20.64% | Labour | 9,296 | 20.28% | +7.50 | -9.87 | +2.38 | Conservative | 66.57% |
| Bridgwater & Somerset West | Conservative | 25,020 | 55.54% | UKIP | 10,437 | 23.17% | Labour | 9,589 | 21.29% | +7.50 | -9.87 | +2.38 | Conservative | 63.04% |
| Broxbourne | Conservative | 25,797 | 59.52% | UKIP | 9,074 | 20.94% | Labour | 8,470 | 19.54% | +7.50 | -9.87 | +2.38 | Conservative | 67.02% |
| Central Devon | Conservative | 28,436 | 66.76% | UKIP | 7,171 | 16.84% | Labour | 6,985 | 16.40% | +7.50 | -9.87 | +2.38 | Conservative | 74.26% |
| Chesham & Amersham | Conservative | 31,138 | 69.09% | UKIP | 7,218 | 16.02% | Labour | 6,712 | 14.89% | +7.50 | -9.87 | +2.38 | Conservative | 76.59% |
| Chesterfield | Labour | 21,829 | 58.08% | Conservative | 8,231 | 21.90% | UKIP | 7,523 | 20.02% | +2.38 | +7.50 | -9.87 | Labour | 60.46% |
| Cynon Valley | Labour | 14,532 | 58.99% | Plaid Cymru | 5,126 | 20.81% | UKIP | 4,976 | 20.20% | +19.10 | -5.80 | -26.33 | Labour | 78.09% |
| Don Valley | Labour | 19,621 | 48.66% | Conservative | 10,736 | 26.63% | UKIP | 9,963 | 24.71% | +2.38 | +7.50 | -9.87 | Labour | 51.04% |
| East Hampshire | Conservative | 31,334 | 72.44% | UKIP | 6,187 | 14.30% | Lib Dem | 5,732 | 13.25% | +13.37 | -13.43 | +0.06 | Conservative | 85.81% |
| Fareham | Conservative | 30,689 | 65.41% | UKIP | 8,427 | 17.96% | Labour | 7,800 | 16.63% | +7.50 | -9.87 | +2.38 | Conservative | 72.91% |
| Grantham and Stamford | Conservative | 28,399 | 60.58% | UKIP | 9,410 | 20.07% | Labour | 9,070 | 19.35% | +7.50 | -9.87 | +2.38 | Conservative | 68.08% |
| Great Grimsby | Labour | 13,414 | 43.69% | Conservative | 8,874 | 28.90% | UKIP | 8,417 | 27.41% | +2.38 | +7.50 | -9.87 | Labour | 46.07% |
| Hackney North and Stoke Newington | Labour | 31,357 | 68.19% | Conservative | 7,349 | 15.98% | Green | 7,281 | 15.83% | -1.40 | +3.05 | -1.65 | Labour | 66.79% |
| Harborough | Conservative | 27,675 | 63.98% | Labour | 8,043 | 18.59% | UKIP | 7,539 | 17.43% | +7.50 | +2.38 | -9.87 | Conservative | 71.48% |
| Huntingdon | Conservative | 29,652 | 60.06% | Labour | 10,248 | 20.76% | UKIP | 9,473 | 19.19% | +7.50 | +2.38 | -9.87 | Conservative | 67.56% |
| Kingston upon Hull North | Labour | 18,661 | 62.77% | UKIP | 5,762 | 19.38% | Conservative | 5,306 | 17.85% | +2.38 | -9.87 | +7.50 | Labour | 65.15% |
| Lagan Valley | Unionist | 19,055 | 62.16% | Ulster | 6,055 | 19.75% | Alliance | 5,544 | 18.09% | +0.02 | -0.36 | +0.34 | Unionist | 62.18% |
| Leeds Central | Labour | 24,758 | 62.47% | Conservative | 7,791 | 19.66% | UKIP | 7,082 | 17.87% | +2.38 | +7.50 | -9.87 | Labour | 64.85% |
| Leeds East | Labour | 20,530 | 57.37% | Conservative | 7,997 | 22.35% | UKIP | 7,256 | 20.28% | +2.38 | +7.50 | -9.87 | Labour | 59.75% |
| Leeds West | Labour | 18,456 | 55.44% | Conservative | 7,729 | 23.22% | UKIP | 7,104 | 21.34% | +2.38 | +7.50 | -9.87 | Labour | 57.82% |
| Ludlow | Conservative | 26,093 | 65.68% | UKIP | 7,164 | 18.03% | Lib Dem | 6,469 | 16.28% | +13.37 | -13.43 | +0.06 | Conservative | 79.05% |
| Manchester, Gorton | Labour | 28,187 | 77.53% | Green | 4,108 | 11.30% | Conservative | 4,063 | 11.17% | -1.40 | -1.65 | +3.05 | Labour | 76.13% |
| Mid Bedfordshire | Conservative | 32,544 | 64.16% | Labour | 9,217 | 18.17% | UKIP | 8,966 | 17.68% | +7.50 | +2.38 | -9.87 | Conservative | 71.66% |
| Mid Norfolk | Conservative | 27,206 | 58.23% | UKIP | 9,930 | 21.25% | Labour | 9,585 | 20.52% | +7.50 | -9.87 | +2.38 | Conservative | 65.73% |
| Neath | Labour | 16,270 | 55.94% | Plaid Cymru | 6,722 | 23.11% | UKIP | 6,094 | 20.95% | +19.10 | -5.80 | -26.33 | Labour | 75.04% |
| Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford | Labour | 25,213 | 56.57% | UKIP | 9,785 | 21.96% | Conservative | 9,569 | 21.47% | +2.38 | -9.87 | +7.50 | Labour | 58.95% |
| North Antrim | Unionist | 18,107 | 63.97% | Sinn Féin | 5,143 | 18.17% | Ulster | 5,054 | 17.86% | -0.09 | +0.41 | -0.32 | Unionist | 63.88% |
| North East Bedfordshire | Conservative | 34,891 | 66.19% | Labour | 9,247 | 17.54% | UKIP | 8,579 | 16.27% | +7.50 | +2.38 | -9.87 | Conservative | 73.69% |
| North East Hampshire | Conservative | 35,573 | 76.47% | Lib Dem | 5,657 | 12.16% | Labour | 5,290 | 11.37% | +2.72 | -1.28 | -1.44 | Conservative | 79.19% |
| North Somerset | Conservative | 31,540 | 66.19% | Labour | 8,441 | 17.71% | UKIP | 7,669 | 16.09% | +7.50 | +2.38 | -9.87 | Conservative | 73.69% |
| North West Hampshire | Conservative | 32,052 | 67.47% | UKIP | 8,109 | 17.07% | Labour | 7,342 | 15.46% | +7.50 | -9.87 | +2.38 | Conservative | 74.97% |
| Ogmore | Labour | 18,663 | 62.83% | Conservative | 5,620 | 18.92% | UKIP | 5,420 | 18.25% | +2.38 | +7.50 | -9.87 | Labour | 65.21% |
| Old Bexley and Sidcup | Conservative | 24,682 | 58.64% | Labour | 8,879 | 21.10% | UKIP | 8,528 | 20.26% | +7.50 | +2.38 | -9.87 | Conservative | 66.14% |
| Oldham West and Royton | Labour | 23,630 | 58.05% | UKIP | 8,892 | 21.84% | Conservative | 8,187 | 20.11% | +2.38 | -9.87 | +7.50 | Labour | 60.43% |
| Orpington | Conservative | 28,152 | 64.03% | UKIP | 8,173 | 18.59% | Labour | 7,645 | 17.39% | +7.50 | -9.87 | +2.38 | Conservative | 71.53% |
| Redcar | Labour | 17,946 | 54.35% | Lib Dem | 7,558 | 22.89% | UKIP | 7,516 | 22.76% | +12.60 | +1.58 | -14.17 | Labour | 66.95% |
| Reigate | Conservative | 29,151 | 68.52% | UKIP | 6,817 | 16.02% | Labour | 6,578 | 15.46% | +7.50 | -9.87 | +2.38 | Conservative | 76.02% |
| Rochdale | Labour | 20,961 | 56.31% | UKIP | 8,519 | 22.89% | Conservative | 7,742 | 20.80% | +2.38 | -9.87 | +7.50 | Labour | 58.69% |
| Romford | Conservative | 25,067 | 53.86% | UKIP | 11,208 | 24.08% | Labour | 10,268 | 22.06% | +7.50 | -9.87 | +2.38 | Conservative | 61.36% |
| Rutland and Melton | Conservative | 30,383 | 64.04% | UKIP | 8,678 | 18.29% | Labour | 8,383 | 17.67% | +7.50 | -9.87 | +2.38 | Conservative | 71.54% |
| South East Cornwall | Conservative | 25,516 | 61.14% | Lib Dem | 8,521 | 20.42% | UKIP | 7,698 | 18.44% | +13.37 | +0.06 | -13.43 | Conservative | 74.51% |
| Sheffield, Heeley | Labour | 20,269 | 58.96% | UKIP | 7,315 | 21.28% | Conservative | 6,792 | 19.76% | +2.38 | -9.87 | +7.50 | Labour | 61.34% |
| Sleaford and North Hykeham | Conservative | 34,805 | 63.04% | Labour | 10,690 | 19.36% | UKIP | 9,716 | 17.60% | +7.50 | +2.38 | -9.87 | Conservative | 70.54% |
| South Basildon and East Thurrock | Conservative | 19,788 | 45.62% | UKIP | 12,097 | 27.89% | Labour | 11,493 | 26.49% | +7.50 | -9.87 | +2.38 | Conservative | 53.12% |
| South Staffordshire | Conservative | 29,478 | 62.92% | Labour | 9,107 | 19.44% | UKIP | 8,267 | 17.64% | +7.50 | +2.38 | -9.87 | Conservative | 70.42% |
| Southend West | Conservative | 22,175 | 58.15% | Labour | 8,154 | 21.38% | UKIP | 7,803 | 20.46% | +7.50 | +2.38 | -9.87 | Conservative | 65.65% |
| Stirling | Scottish National | 23,783 | 48.40% | Labour | 13,303 | 27.07% | Conservative | 12,051 | 24.53% | -12.55 | -0.07 | +12.62 | Conservative | 37.15% |
| Stoke-on-Trent Central | Labour | 12,220 | 46.52% | UKIP | 7,041 | 26.80% | Conservative | 7,008 | 26.68% | +2.38 | -9.87 | +7.50 | Labour | 48.90% |
| Stoke-on-Trent North | Labour | 15,429 | 43.38% | Conservative | 10,593 | 29.79% | UKIP | 9,542 | 26.83% | +2.38 | +7.50 | -9.87 | Labour | 45.76% |
| Strangford | Unionist | 15,053 | 61.17% | Ulster | 4,868 | 19.78% | Alliance | 4,687 | 19.05% | +0.02 | -0.36 | +0.34 | Unionist | 61.19% |
| Stratford-on-Avon | Conservative | 29,674 | 68.77% | UKIP | 6,798 | 15.75% | Labour | 6,677 | 15.47% | +7.50 | -9.87 | +2.38 | Conservative | 76.27% |
| South West Surrey | Conservative | 28,784 | 72.25% | UKIP | 5,643 | 14.16% | Labour | 5,415 | 13.59% | +7.50 | -9.87 | +2.38 | Conservative | 79.75% |
| Tewkesbury | Conservative | 30,176 | 65.59% | Labour | 8,204 | 17.83% | Lib Dem | 7,629 | 16.58% | +2.72 | -1.44 | -1.28 | Conservative | 68.31% |
| Thirsk and Malton | Conservative | 27,545 | 63.41% | Labour | 8,089 | 18.62% | UKIP | 7,805 | 17.97% | +7.50 | +2.38 | -9.87 | Conservative | 70.91% |
| Thurrock | Conservative | 16,692 | 34.37% | Labour | 16,156 | 33.27% | UKIP | 15,718 | 32.36% | +7.50 | +2.38 | -9.87 | Conservative | 41.87% |
| Tonbridge and Malling | Conservative | 31,887 | 66.93% | UKIP | 8,153 | 17.11% | Labour | 7,604 | 15.96% | +7.50 | -9.87 | +2.38 | Conservative | 74.43% |
| Truro and Falmouth | Conservative | 22,681 | 57.90% | Lib Dem | 8,681 | 22.16% | Labour | 7,814 | 19.95% | +2.72 | -1.28 | -1.44 | Conservative | 60.62% |
| Washington and Sunderland West | Labour | 20,478 | 58.79% | UKIP | 7,321 | 21.02% | Conservative | 7,033 | 20.19% | +2.38 | -9.87 | +7.50 | Labour | 61.17% |
| Wellingborough | Conservative | 26,265 | 57.13% | UKIP | 9,868 | 21.47% | Labour | 9,839 | 21.40% | +7.50 | -9.87 | +2.38 | Conservative | 64.63% |
| West Bromwich West | Labour | 16,578 | 49.08% | UKIP | 8,836 | 26.16% | Conservative | 8,365 | 24.76% | +2.38 | -9.87 | +7.50 | Labour | 51.46% |
| West Tyrone | Sinn Féin | 16,807 | 56.03% | Unionist | 6,747 | 22.49% | Social Democrat | 6,444 | 21.48% | +1.34 | +0.88 | -2.22 | Sinn Féin | 57.37% |
| West Worcestershire | Conservative | 30,342 | 66.91% | UKIP | 7,764 | 17.12% | Labour | 7,244 | 15.97% | +7.50 | -9.87 | +2.38 | Conservative | 74.41% |
| Weston-Super-Mare | Conservative | 25,203 | 57.07% | Labour | 9,594 | 21.72% | UKIP | 9,366 | 21.21% | +7.50 | +2.38 | -9.87 | Conservative | 64.57% |
| Wigan | Labour | 23,625 | 56.48% | Conservative | 9,389 | 22.44% | UKIP | 8,818 | 21.08% | +2.38 | +7.50 | -9.87 | Labour | 58.86% |
| Witham | Conservative | 27,123 | 64.34% | UKIP | 7,569 | 17.95% | Labour | 7,467 | 17.71% | +7.50 | -9.87 | +2.38 | Conservative | 71.84% |
| Wokingham | Conservative | 32,329 | 67.31% | Labour | 8,132 | 16.93% | Lib Dem | 7,572 | 15.76% | +2.72 | -1.44 | -1.28 | Conservative | 70.03% |
| Wolverhampton South East | Labour | 18,539 | 55.57% | Conservative | 7,761 | 23.26% | UKIP | 7,061 | 21.17% | +2.38 | +7.50 | -9.87 | Labour | 57.95% |
and that completes our predictions:
That amounts to the Conservatives winning 23 seats (14 from Labour, 7 from the Scottish Nationals, 1 from the Lib Dems and 1 from UKIP), Labour winning two (1 each from Plaid Cymru and the Scottish Nationals), Sinn Féin winning one from the Ulster Unionists and the Democratic Unionists taking one from the Social Democrats to give:
Conservative: 353 (Majority)
Labour: 220
Scottish Nationals: 48
Democratic Unionists: 9
Lib Dems: 7
Sinn Féin: 5
Plaid Cymru: 2
Social Democrat: 2
Green: 1
Ulster Unionists: 1
Independent: 1
and the Speaker.
As a completely unjustified footnote, however, I expect the Scottish Nationals to do better here than expected, based on a surge in nationalism and a desire for a second referendum to leave Britain and rejoin the EU. I expect UKIP to lose more than their one predicted loss now that their main draw card—leaving the EU—has been achieved. And I expect the Lib Dems to do better than suggested, returning to their default position of 3rd party nationally after an anomalously bad result in 2015 skewing the data.
I'm looking forward to voting in the seat of Oxford West tomorrow!
ReplyDeleteOxford West and Abingdon looked quite safe for the Conservatives with an almost 17% margin over the Liberal Democrats, but the Lib Dems have historically done a decent job of rivaling the Tories here.
DeleteThe seat has now been called for the Lib Dems--the only one to change hands in Oxfordshire--which just goes to show the importance of turning out to vote an never writing a seat off.