The Lonesome West part 2

[Link to part 1]

LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY

While deciding how to apportion the remaining undecided legislative assembly seats, I turned my attention to predicting the legislative council. My intent was to do those predictions first, then close out the post with my decision; unfortunately my resolution was a weak one little better than flipping a coin (though that is essentially what things come down to now that we do not include tossups in our predictions) so i thought that might prove a bit anticlimactic. So, here is the legislative assembly prediction as we left them last post:

Electorate	Current Incumbent	Prediction
Albany	ALP	ALP
Armadale	ALP	ALP
Balcatta	LIB	ALP
Baldivis	ALP	ALP
Bassendean	ALP	ALP
Bateman	LIB	LIB
Belmont	LIB	ALP
Bicton	LIB	???
Bunbury	LIB	LIB
Burns Beach	LIB	???
Butler	ALP	ALP
Cannington	ALP	ALP
Carine	LIB	LIB
Central Wheatbelt	NAT	NAT
Churchlands	LIB	LIB
Cockburn	ALP	ALP
Collie-Preston	ALP	ALP
Cottesloe	LIB	LIB
Darling Range	LIB	LIB
Dawesville	LIB	LIB
Forrestfield	LIB	ALP
Fremantle	ALP	ALP
Geraldton	LIB	LIB
Girrawheen	ALP	ALP
Hillarys	LIB	LIB
Jandakot	LIB	LIB
Joondalup	LIB	???
Kalamunda	LIB	LIB
Kalgoorlie	NAT	NAT
Kimberley	ALP	ALP
Kingsley	LIB	LIB
Kwinana	ALP	ALP
Mandurah	ALP	ALP
Maylands	ALP	ALP
Midland	ALP	ALP
Mirrabooka	ALP	ALP
Moore	NAT	NAT
Morley	LIB	ALP
Mount Lawley	LIB	ALP
Murray-Wellington	LIB	LIB
Nedlands	LIB	LIB
North West Central	NAT	NAT
Perth	LIB	ALP
Pilbara	NAT	NAT
Riverton	LIB	LIB
Rockingham	ALP	ALP
Roe	NAT	NAT
Scarborough	LIB	LIB
South Perth	LIB	LIB
Southern River	LIB	???
Swan Hills	LIB	ALP
Thornlie	ALP	ALP
Vasse	LIB	LIB
Victoria Park	ALP	ALP
Wanneroo	LIB	???
Warnbro	ALP	ALP
Warren-Blackwood	NAT	NAT
West Swan	ALP	ALP
Willagee	ALP	ALP

There are five, currently Liberal seats as yet un-called. In order from most likely to remain with the LIBs to least, they are: Burns Beach, Wanneroo, Southern River, Joondalup and Bicton. Based on all the polling considered, Labor should get over 50% of the vote, but not 60%. Obviously these numbers will vary dramatically from seat to seat, but since we have no better solution presenting itself at short notice, 3 of these seats will be allocated to the ALP and two to the LIBs. This is not really based on any rational application of the figures, but it can't be any worse than flipping a coin, right? Based on the above order, the logical (and I use the word "logical" loosely) prediction is:

Electorate	Current Incumbent	Prediction
Albany	ALP	ALP
Armadale	ALP	ALP
Balcatta	LIB	ALP
Baldivis	ALP	ALP
Bassendean	ALP	ALP
Bateman	LIB	LIB
Belmont	LIB	ALP
Bicton	LIB	ALP
Bunbury	LIB	LIB
Burns Beach	LIB	LIB
Butler	ALP	ALP
Cannington	ALP	ALP
Carine	LIB	LIB
Central Wheatbelt	NAT	NAT
Churchlands	LIB	LIB
Cockburn	ALP	ALP
Collie-Preston	ALP	ALP
Cottesloe	LIB	LIB
Darling Range	LIB	LIB
Dawesville	LIB	LIB
Forrestfield	LIB	ALP
Fremantle	ALP	ALP
Geraldton	LIB	LIB
Girrawheen	ALP	ALP
Hillarys	LIB	LIB
Jandakot	LIB	LIB
Joondalup	LIB	ALP
Kalamunda	LIB	LIB
Kalgoorlie	NAT	NAT
Kimberley	ALP	ALP
Kingsley	LIB	LIB
Kwinana	ALP	ALP
Mandurah	ALP	ALP
Maylands	ALP	ALP
Midland	ALP	ALP
Mirrabooka	ALP	ALP
Moore	NAT	NAT
Morley	LIB	ALP
Mount Lawley	LIB	ALP
Murray-Wellington	LIB	LIB
Nedlands	LIB	LIB
North West Central	NAT	NAT
Perth	LIB	ALP
Pilbara	NAT	NAT
Riverton	LIB	LIB
Rockingham	ALP	ALP
Roe	NAT	NAT
Scarborough	LIB	LIB
South Perth	LIB	LIB
Southern River	LIB	ALP
Swan Hills	LIB	ALP
Thornlie	ALP	ALP
Vasse	LIB	LIB
Victoria Park	ALP	ALP
Wanneroo	LIB	LIB
Warnbro	ALP	ALP
Warren-Blackwood	NAT	NAT
West Swan	ALP	ALP
Willagee	ALP	ALP

This gives the ALP thirty two seats, and an outright majority. This seems like a much slimmer margin than many are predicting--maybe i should have given the ALP all the tossups and made it thirty four. We'll see.

LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL

Now to the LegCo. This is elected the same way we used to elect the Federal Senate; you know, the old one-above-the-line-or-all-below method that gave so much power to preference flows? Fortunately, as always, the illustrious Antony Green has produced his usual calculator to help calculate the flows for us based on a user-nominated primary vote that follows the above-the-line ticket.

While we have lots of polls available for the two-party contest, our best source of primary-vote numbers is this data from WAtoday. Putting this data into the calculator (where possible--the Nationals are not contesting the three metropolitan regions) gets us only so far, though. For all the parties listed as "other" I created three categories: "minor parties", "micro parties" and "independents".

I had to fudge the definitions of these groups a little, but basically minor parties are those that people are likely to have heard of before--mostly because they contest elections at various levels of government regularly. In this case they are: Australian Christians (ACP), Family First (FFP), Liberal Democrats (LDP), Shooters, Fishers and Farmers (SFF) and Socialist Alliance (SA).

Micro parties here are all other parties: Animal Justice Party (AJP), Daylight Saving Party (DSP), FLUORIDE FREE WA (FFW), Micro Business Party (MBP) and Flux The System! (FLX)

These definitions are subjective, and thus blurred. AJP and FLX could be counted as minor parties, and ACP and SA might be pushed into the micro party category. Also, I have included Julie Matheson in the independents despite having a party and thus, one assumes, larger reach.

Most parties at these levels receive between 0.1% and 2% of the primary vote. I thus gave every minor party a 2% share of the primary vote, micro parties 1% and independents 0.5%. I do not think the exact figures will matter too much, as the primary purpose is to follow the preference flows. As Antony Green has already calculated, FLUORIDE FREE WA is well enough positioned in the preference web that they could win a seat with a primary vote as low as 0.2%. Besides, that noble 5% who vote below the line will always make this game one of approximations. Then again,

Entering these values always pushed to total over 100%, though never by much, and the calculator will reduce the figures across the board (and complain that too many entries have the same figures entered). This may slightly compensate for the natural reduction of the primary vote in the upper houses relative to the lower resulting from a wider candidate pool.

These numbers entered and the calculations run, the results produced are:

EAST METROPOLITAN
1     Alanna Clohesy     WA Labor
2     Donna Faragher     Liberal Party
3     Samantha Rowe     WA Labor
4     Alyssa Hayden     Liberal Party
5     Tim Clifford     The Greens (WA)
6     John Watt     FLUORIDE FREE WA

NORTH METROPOLITAN
1     Alannah MacTiernan     WA Labor
2     Peter Collier     Liberal Party
3     Martin Pritchard     WA Labor
4     Michael Mischin     Liberal Party
5     Alison Xamon     The Greens (WA)
6     Henry Heng     Family First

SOUTH METROPOLITAN
1     Sue Ellery     WA Labor
2     Nick Goiran     Liberal Party
3     Kate Doust     WA Labor
4     Simon O'Brien     Liberal Party
5     Lynn MacLaren     The Greens (WA)
6     Wilson Tucker     Daylight Saving Party

AGRICULTURAL
1     Darren West     WA Labor
2     Jim Chown     Liberal Party
3     Laurie Graham     WA Labor
4     Steve Martin     Liberal Party
5     Rick Mazza     Shooters, Fishers and Farmers
6     Connor Whittle     Liberal Democrats

MINING AND PASTORAL
1     Stephen Dawson     WA Labor
2     Ken Baston     Liberal Party
3     Kyle McGinn     WA Labor
4     Mark Lewis     Liberal Party
5     Kai Shanks     Flux The System!
6     Robin Chapple     The Greens (WA)

SOUTH WEST
1     Sally Talbot     WA Labor
2     Steve Thomas     Liberal Party
3     Adele Farina     WA Labor
4     Wade De Campo     Liberal Party
5     Hayley Green     FLUORIDE FREE WA
6     Diane Evers     The Greens (WA)

The two ALP and two LIB candidates in each seat are constant as, on the figures used, they automatically reach 2 quotas on their primary vote. Interestingly, there is never enough carry-over in these numbers to grant a third seat. The Greens do very well, winning a seat in each region except Agricultural. The other parties that fall in are a mix of well-known, unsurprising nominations (Family First; Shooters, Fishers and Farmers; Lib Dems), a couple of self-explanatory single-issue parties (FLUORIDE FREE WA (twice) and Daylight Savings Party) and a wildcard that you always get in this preference-ticket system (Flux the System!--though they certainly know how to milk the current set up for every vote).

I think One Nation will actually do better than reported here and pick up some seats after a very high-profile campaign; I just don't know where and in place of whom. I also think the Nationals will pick up several seats, probably replacing the greens in some cases (particularly the non-metropolitan regions). However I don't know for sure where to slip these into the predictions, and both the NATs and the ONP are excluded from the lucrative preference-swapping quagmire than Glenn Druery (yes, he's back!) has produced. So for expediency, NAT and ONP are not included in the prediction.


While the final seat in each case is highly speculative (and in some of these cases I'd suggest the same is true of the second-last) what seems certain is that a LegCo cross-bench will hold the balance of power in WA after this weekend (though perhaps not the cross-bench suggested above, probably with more One-Nation elements and potentially smaller (and thus more powerful) if a few NATs show up).