As advised in last week's post, we'll only be giving this month's elections a cursory look.
Queensland's latest polling has the ALP behind in 2PP 49:51 and 47.5:52.5 from uComms and Newspoll respectively. This is a substantial swing from 2020 which saw the ALP win 53.2 of the 2PP vot: a swing of -4.2 to -5.7.
Applying these swings uniformly across all seats from the current pendulum gives the following baseline:
| ELECTORATE | CURRENT | -4.2 PP | -5.7 PP |
| Algester | 17.8 | 13.6 | 12.1 |
| Aspley | 5.2 | 1.0 | -0.5 |
| Bancroft | 12.8 | 8.6 | 7.1 |
| Barron River | 3.1 | -1.1 | -2.6 |
| Bonney | -10.1 | -14.3 | -15.8 |
| Broadwater | -16.6 | -20.8 | -22.3 |
| Buderim | -5.3 | -9.5 | -11.0 |
| Bulimba | 11.4 | 7.2 | 5.7 |
| Bundaberg | 0.0 | -4.2 | -5.7 |
| Bundamba | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Burdekin | -7.0 | -11.2 | -12.7 |
| Burleigh | -1.2 | -5.4 | -6.9 |
| Burnett | -10.8 | -15.0 | -16.5 |
| Cairns | 5.6 | 1.4 | -0.1 |
| Callide | -21.7 | -25.9 | -27.4 |
| Caloundra | 2.5 | -1.7 | -3.2 |
| Capalaba | 9.8 | 5.6 | 4.1 |
| Chatsworth | -1.3 | -5.5 | -7.0 |
| Clayfield | -1.6 | -5.8 | -7.3 |
| Condamine | -19.2 | -23.4 | -24.9 |
| Cook | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| Coomera | -1.1 | -5.3 | -6.8 |
| Cooper | 10.5 | 6.3 | 4.8 |
| Currumbin | -0.5 | -4.7 | -6.2 |
| Everton | -2.2 | -6.4 | -7.9 |
| Ferny Grove | 11.0 | 6.8 | 5.3 |
| Gaven | 7.8 | 3.6 | 2.1 |
| Gladstone | 23.5 | 19.3 | 17.8 |
| Glass House | -1.6 | -5.8 | -7.3 |
| Greenslopes | 13.2 | 9.0 | 7.5 |
| Gregory | -17.2 | -21.4 | -22.9 |
| Gympie | -8.5 | -12.7 | -14.2 |
| Hervey Bay | 2.0 | -2.2 | -3.7 |
| Hill | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Hinchinbrook | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Inala | 6.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| Ipswich | 16.5 | 12.3 | 10.8 |
| Ipswich West | -3.5 | -7.7 | -9.2 |
| Jordan | 17.1 | 12.9 | 11.4 |
| Kawana | -9.3 | -13.5 | -15.0 |
| Keppel | 5.6 | 1.4 | -0.1 |
| Kurwongbah | 13.1 | 8.9 | 7.4 |
| Lockyer | -11.5 | -15.7 | -17.2 |
| Logan | 13.4 | 9.2 | 7.7 |
| Lytton | 13.4 | 9.2 | 7.7 |
| Macalister | 9.5 | 5.3 | 3.8 |
| Mackay | 6.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| Maiwar | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Mansfield | 6.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| Maroochydore | -9.1 | -13.3 | -14.8 |
| Maryborough | 11.9 | 7.7 | 6.2 |
| McConnel | 11.1 | 6.9 | 5.4 |
| Mermaid Beach | -4.4 | -8.6 | -10.1 |
| Miller | 13.8 | 9.6 | 8.1 |
| Mirani | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Moggill | -3.6 | -7.8 | -9.3 |
| Morayfield | 16.7 | 12.5 | 11.0 |
| Mount Ommaney | 12.6 | 8.4 | 6.9 |
| Mudgeeraba | -10.1 | -14.3 | -15.8 |
| Mulgrave | 12.2 | 8.0 | 6.5 |
| Mundingburra | 3.9 | -0.3 | -1.8 |
| Murrumba | 11.3 | 7.1 | 5.6 |
| Nanango | -12.2 | -16.4 | -17.9 |
| Nicklin | 0.1 | -4.1 | -5.6 |
| Ninderry | -4.1 | -8.3 | -9.8 |
| Noosa | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Nudgee | 15.1 | 10.9 | 9.4 |
| Oodgeroo | -4.5 | -8.7 | -10.2 |
| Pine Rivers | 6.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| Pumicestone | 5.3 | 1.1 | -0.4 |
| Redcliffe | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| Redlands | 3.9 | -0.3 | -1.8 |
| Rockhampton | 8.6 | 4.4 | 2.9 |
| Sandgate | 17.3 | 13.1 | 11.6 |
| Scenic Rim | -11.4 | -15.6 | -17.1 |
| South Brisbane | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Southern Downs | -14.1 | -18.3 | -19.8 |
| Southport | -5.4 | -9.6 | -11.1 |
| Springwood | 8.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 |
| Stafford | 11.9 | 7.7 | 6.2 |
| Stretton | 13.9 | 9.7 | 8.2 |
| Surfers Paradise | -16.2 | -20.4 | -21.9 |
| Theodore | -3.3 | -7.5 | -9.0 |
| Thuringowa | 3.2 | -1.0 | -2.5 |
| Toohey | 14.4 | 10.2 | 8.7 |
| Toowoomba North | -7.3 | -11.5 | -13.0 |
| Toowoomba South | -10.2 | -14.4 | -15.9 |
| Townsville | 3.1 | -1.1 | -2.6 |
| Traeger | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Warrego | -23.1 | -27.3 | -28.8 |
| Waterford | 16.0 | 11.8 | 10.3 |
| Whitsunday | -3.3 | -7.5 | -9.0 |
| Woodridge | 26.2 | 22.0 | 20.5 |
Bundamba is also a safe ALP seat, shown as N/A here only because their dominance means LNP doesn't show up as the second party. With a margin of 20.7 against ONP, this can be safely predicted to remain ALP.
A number of the other 'N/A's are safe seats for parties other than ALP or LNP, and can be filled in easily due to the relatively small movement in minor party polling in the latest numbers compared to their 2020 result. Hill, Hinchinbrook and Traeger will remain with KAP and Noosa with Independent Sandy Bolton.
Though on slimmer margins, the Greens are polling marginally better than their 2020 performance so will likely hold Maiwar and South Brisbane too.
Mirani is the one oddity, won by ONP in 2020 but with the candidate switching to KAP this year. KAP did not contest the seat in 2020, so it's impossible to know how they would have done. It's anyone's guess whether incumbency and latent KAP support can hold the seat, dedicated ONP voters will reclaim it, or another (presumably major party (presumably LNP)) will swoop in. My guess is that a lot of the ONP vote in 2020 was anti-establishment conservative voters who would happily support KAP, putting this party above ONP and then on preferences retaining Mirani.
| ELECTORATE | PREDICTION |
| Algester | ALP |
| Aspley | TBC |
| Bancroft | ALP |
| Barron River | LNP |
| Bonney | LNP |
| Broadwater | LNP |
| Buderim | LNP |
| Bulimba | ALP |
| Bundaberg | LNP |
| Bundamba | ALP |
| Burdekin | LNP |
| Burleigh | LNP |
| Burnett | LNP |
| Cairns | TBC |
| Callide | LNP |
| Caloundra | LNP |
| Capalaba | ALP |
| Chatsworth | LNP |
| Clayfield | LNP |
| Condamine | LNP |
| Cook | ALP |
| Coomera | LNP |
| Cooper | ALP |
| Currumbin | LNP |
| Everton | LNP |
| Ferny Grove | ALP |
| Gaven | ALP |
| Gladstone | ALP |
| Glass House | LNP |
| Greenslopes | ALP |
| Gregory | LNP |
| Gympie | LNP |
| Hervey Bay | LNP |
| Hill | KAP |
| Hinchinbrook | KAP |
| Inala | ALP |
| Ipswich | ALP |
| Ipswich West | LNP |
| Jordan | ALP |
| Kawana | LNP |
| Keppel | TBC |
| Kurwongbah | ALP |
| Lockyer | LNP |
| Logan | ALP |
| Lytton | ALP |
| Macalister | ALP |
| Mackay | ALP |
| Maiwar | GRN |
| Mansfield | ALP |
| Maroochydore | LNP |
| Maryborough | ALP |
| McConnel | ALP |
| Mermaid Beach | LNP |
| Miller | ALP |
| Mirani | KAP |
| Moggill | LNP |
| Morayfield | ALP |
| Mount Ommaney | ALP |
| Mudgeeraba | LNP |
| Mulgrave | ALP |
| Mundingburra | LNP |
| Murrumba | ALP |
| Nanango | LNP |
| Nicklin | LNP |
| Ninderry | LNP |
| Noosa | IND |
| Nudgee | ALP |
| Oodgeroo | LNP |
| Pine Rivers | ALP |
| Pumicestone | TBC |
| Redcliffe | ALP |
| Redlands | LNP |
| Rockhampton | ALP |
| Sandgate | ALP |
| Scenic Rim | LNP |
| South Brisbane | GRN |
| Southern Downs | LNP |
| Southport | LNP |
| Springwood | ALP |
| Stafford | ALP |
| Stretton | ALP |
| Surfers Paradise | LNP |
| Theodore | LNP |
| Thuringowa | LNP |
| Toohey | ALP |
| Toowoomba North | LNP |
| Toowoomba South | LNP |
| Townsville | LNP |
| Traeger | KAP |
| Warrego | LNP |
| Waterford | ALP |
| Whitsunday | LNP |
| Woodridge | ALP |
Voila!
The remaining work is to call the four seats that would flip on a -5.7 pp swing from ALP to LNP but not -4.2 pp.
Cairns and Keppel only just flip (-0.1 pp margin) in the former scenario, so the safe bet on these is ALP retain. And based on nothing but a desire for balance this, I'm going to call Aspley and Pumicestone to flip to the LNP.
| ELECTORATE | PREDICTION |
| Algester | ALP |
| Aspley | LNP |
| Bancroft | ALP |
| Barron River | LNP |
| Bonney | LNP |
| Broadwater | LNP |
| Buderim | LNP |
| Bulimba | ALP |
| Bundaberg | LNP |
| Bundamba | ALP |
| Burdekin | LNP |
| Burleigh | LNP |
| Burnett | LNP |
| Cairns | ALP |
| Callide | LNP |
| Caloundra | LNP |
| Capalaba | ALP |
| Chatsworth | LNP |
| Clayfield | LNP |
| Condamine | LNP |
| Cook | ALP |
| Coomera | LNP |
| Cooper | ALP |
| Currumbin | LNP |
| Everton | LNP |
| Ferny Grove | ALP |
| Gaven | ALP |
| Gladstone | ALP |
| Glass House | LNP |
| Greenslopes | ALP |
| Gregory | LNP |
| Gympie | LNP |
| Hervey Bay | LNP |
| Hill | KAP |
| Hinchinbrook | KAP |
| Inala | ALP |
| Ipswich | ALP |
| Ipswich West | LNP |
| Jordan | ALP |
| Kawana | LNP |
| Keppel | ALP |
| Kurwongbah | ALP |
| Lockyer | LNP |
| Logan | ALP |
| Lytton | ALP |
| Macalister | ALP |
| Mackay | ALP |
| Maiwar | GRN |
| Mansfield | ALP |
| Maroochydore | LNP |
| Maryborough | ALP |
| McConnel | ALP |
| Mermaid Beach | LNP |
| Miller | ALP |
| Mirani | KAP |
| Moggill | LNP |
| Morayfield | ALP |
| Mount Ommaney | ALP |
| Mudgeeraba | LNP |
| Mulgrave | ALP |
| Mundingburra | LNP |
| Murrumba | ALP |
| Nanango | LNP |
| Nicklin | LNP |
| Ninderry | LNP |
| Noosa | IND |
| Nudgee | ALP |
| Oodgeroo | LNP |
| Pine Rivers | ALP |
| Pumicestone | LNP |
| Redcliffe | ALP |
| Redlands | LNP |
| Rockhampton | ALP |
| Sandgate | ALP |
| Scenic Rim | LNP |
| South Brisbane | GRN |
| Southern Downs | LNP |
| Southport | LNP |
| Springwood | ALP |
| Stafford | ALP |
| Stretton | ALP |
| Surfers Paradise | LNP |
| Theodore | LNP |
| Thuringowa | LNP |
| Toohey | ALP |
| Toowoomba North | LNP |
| Toowoomba South | LNP |
| Townsville | LNP |
| Traeger | KAP |
| Warrego | LNP |
| Waterford | ALP |
| Whitsunday | LNP |
| Woodridge | ALP |
This gives ALP 40 seats, LNP 46 and no-one the necessary 47 for majority government.
Labour would need every crossbench MP's support to form government, which is a big ask. Liberal Nationals only need one more person, but with the Greens having ruled out such a deal and a single independent leaving the government vulnerable at the first resignation or defection, both parties would be keen to court Katter's Australian Party. LNP has the stronger path to making 47, and of the two parties is the more natural ally of the KAP.
All of which is to say there will be a LNP minority government in a tense coalition with KAP.
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