We have two Australian elections coming up this month, then USA early next. I'm also not available for deep data diving this month, so I'm afraid ACT & Qld are going to get a pretty basic treatment this year. Sorry to do that to you.
However, the ACT have partly brought this on themselves. There is no credible polling for this election. The closest substitute I can find is this article. However their sentiments broadly accord with the general summary I'm seeing from other sources.
The System
The ACT has 5 electorates electing 5 members each by Hare-Clark proportional representation. So to win a seat a party needs 1/6 of the population+1. While there may be a desire to shake up the long-term rule of the ALP, I don't see them falling below 2/6 of the vote, or breaking 3/6 in any seat. So that's 10 seats.
The Liberals currently hold 8 seats, due to Elizabeth Kikkert being removed from the party, but should easily recover their previous standard of 10 seats too (especially as this year is seen by some experts as their best chance in a long time, due to a more moderate leadership and rising cost of living).
That's a 10:10 split with each electorate to pick one more candidate. At present that's exclusively the domain of the Greens, who will continue to form a coalition with ALP. I absolutely don't buy the alleged claim by the Greens leader that they could become the majority in that coalition. I'm more inclined to agree with those quoted in the first link of this post expecting a decline in Greens votes after last election's surge. This is partly covered by the return of Liberals to 10 seats, but may also see some independent or minor party wins. The latter, however, is most likely to result in a shift to other progressive candidates, securing a Labor minority government.
The only non-Green parties that might meet this description are those with ironically un-party-like names: Independents for Canberra and Strong Independents. Neither seem to be making the requisite splash on my radar, so that leaves actual independents. And the only one of those I'm hearing any buzz about is Fiona Carrick in Murrumbidgee. And while she's a possible winner, I think the Greens will probably hold on even there through preference flows after Labor's second seat is secured. Even if I'm wrong, Labor still needs the Greens for a majority and Ms Carrick will likely have little influence on the deal.
So I'm calling every seat identically: 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Green. Labor minority with a Greens coalition.
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