Good question.
Here are the first preference votes of every party that got over 1% in the last Legislative Council election:
| Agricultural | East Metro | Mining & Pastoral | North Metro | South Metro | South West | |
| Animal Justice Party | 4,463 | 3,599 | 4,000 | |||
| Australian Christians | 1,455 | 7,536 | 663 | 4,773 | 6,346 | 2,968 |
| Family First | 485 | |||||
| The Greens (WA) | 2,792 | 25,856 | 2,551 | 29,001 | 28,269 | 13,159 |
| Liberal Democrats | 931 | 3,156 | 3,397 | 13,268 | ||
| Liberal Party | 15,814 | 80,662 | 7,568 | 117,633 | 83,069 | 42,774 |
| THE NATIONALS | 25,551 | 8,861 | 21,822 | |||
| Pauline Hanson's One Nation | 9,671 | 25,153 | 6,504 | 20,368 | 22,928 | 19,437 |
| Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | 4,626 | 6,205 | 2,423 | 4,019 | 4,863 | 7,297 |
| WA Labor | 20,484 | 150,287 | 16,376 | 119,448 | 150,543 | 68,213 |
And here are those results as a percentage of these votes (that is, of all votes for a party earning more than 1% of the vote.
| Agricultural | East Metro | Mining & Pastoral | North Metro | South Metro | South West | |
| Animal Justice Party | 0.00 | 1.47 | 0.00 | 1.19 | 1.28 | 0.00 |
| Australian Christians | 1.79 | 2.48 | 1.46 | 1.58 | 2.03 | 1.69 |
| Family First | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| The Greens (WA) | 3.43 | 8.52 | 5.62 | 9.60 | 9.02 | 7.49 |
| Liberal Democrats | 1.14 | 1.04 | 0.00 | 1.12 | 4.24 | 0.00 |
| Liberal Party | 19.45 | 26.59 | 16.66 | 38.92 | 26.52 | 24.35 |
| THE NATIONALS | 31.42 | 0.00 | 19.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12.42 |
| Pauline Hanson's One Nation | 11.89 | 8.29 | 14.32 | 6.74 | 7.32 | 11.06 |
| Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | 5.69 | 2.05 | 5.33 | 1.33 | 1.55 | 4.15 |
| WA Labor | 25.19 | 49.55 | 36.05 | 39.52 | 48.05 | 38.83 |
Taking the most recent polling for the Legislative Assembly, we would expect a 16.8 percentage point rise for WA Labor on first preferences, and decreases to the Liberals (-8.2), Nationals (-3.4), One Nation (-1.9) and Greens (-0.9). Assuming similar figures in the Legislative Council that would give:
| Agricultural | East Metro | Mining & Pastoral | North Metro | South Metro | South West | |
| Animal Justice Party | 0.00 | 1.47 | 0.00 | 1.19 | 1.28 | 0.00 |
| Australian Christians | 1.79 | 2.48 | 1.46 | 1.58 | 2.03 | 1.69 |
| Family First | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| The Greens (WA) | 2.53 | 7.62 | 4.72 | 8.70 | 8.12 | 6.59 |
| Liberal Democrats | 1.14 | 1.04 | 0.00 | 1.12 | 4.24 | 0.00 |
| Liberal Party | 11.25 | 18.39 | 8.46 | 30.72 | 18.32 | 16.15 |
| THE NATIONALS | 28.02 | -3.40 | 16.10 | -3.40 | -3.40 | 9.02 |
| Pauline Hanson's One Nation | 9.99 | 6.39 | 12.42 | 4.84 | 5.42 | 9.16 |
| Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | 5.69 | 2.05 | 5.33 | 1.33 | 1.55 | 4.15 |
| WA Labor | 41.99 | 66.35 | 52.85 | 56.32 | 64.85 | 55.63 |
This is a very brutish approach that ignores a number of minor parties and allows a total of ~102% of votes to be counted. Still, as a rough guide, that already awards a number of seats:
Agricultural: 2 ALP, 1 Nat, 3 TBD
East Metro: 3 ALP, 1 Lib, 2 TBD
Mining & Pastoral: 3 ALP, 3 TBD
North Metro: 3 ALP, 1 Lib, 2 TBD
South Metro: 3 ALP, 1 Lib, 2 TBD
South West: 3 ALP, 3 TBD
Added to this, the Liberals have 95% of a seat in the South West, Nationals have 80% or more of a seat in East Metro, Mining & Pastoral and in South Metro, and Labor likewise in 80%+ in East and South Metros. It would not take many preferences to flow to these to lock those seats in.
Agricultural: 2 ALP, 1 Nat, 3 TBD
East Metro: 4 ALP, 1 Lib, 1 Nat
Mining & Pastoral: 3 ALP, 1 Nat, 2 TBD
North Metro: 3 ALP, 1 Lib, 2 TBD
South Metro: 4 ALP, 1 Lib, 1 Nat
South West: 3 ALP, 1 Lib, 2 TBD
Other well placed candidates are the Liberals and Nationals in North Metro with both holding ~80% of the seat. Undoubtedly the Coalition should pick up a seat but neither is likely to win until the other drops out and frees up conservative votes. At present the region has two Liberals, so on this basis alone I'm picking the Libs to win that tussle.
In Agricultural the Libs have 66% of a seat and the Nats 64%. Either could take it, with the Nats and Libs both currently holding an unaccounted for seat. These is also currently a Shooters and Fishers MLC, but Labor (46%) and One Nation (59%) are both ahead on first preferences (SFF 33%). At a guess, any of these dropping out gives a seat to a Coalition party, leaving the other to pick up seat #5 and the final seat as a preference flow lottery.
One nation is sitting on 73% of a seat in Mining & Pastoral, which is certainly a plausible case with two seats still TBD.
Agricultural: 2 ALP, 1 Lib, 2 Nat, 1 ONP
East Metro: 4 ALP, 1 Lib, 1 Nat
Mining & Pastoral: 3 ALP, 1 Nat, 1 ONP, 1 TBD
North Metro: 3 ALP, 2 Lib, 1 TBD
South Metro: 4 ALP, 1 Lib, 1 Nat
South West: 3 ALP, 1 Lib, 2 TBD
Mining & Pastoral has a Liberal and a Green at present. If ONP does sneak in that could soak up a number of conservatives leaving the Greens with a clear shot at goal. North Metro also has a Green and no obvious rival for 6th place. South West has a National and a One Nation incumbent as the only members not yet returned. With 53% and 54% of a seat locked away respectively, their return is not unlikely, with a possible Green replacement in the mix at an outside shot. Given the general mood in ticket preferences away from ONP, though, I'll take a change on Greens beating them here.
Final Prediction:
Agricultural: 2 ALP, 1 Lib, 2 Nat, 1 ONP
East Metro: 4 ALP, 1 Lib, 1 Nat
Mining & Pastoral: 3 ALP, 1 Nat, 1 ONP, 1 Grn
North Metro: 3 ALP, 2 Lib, 1 Grn
South Metro: 4 ALP, 1 Lib, 1 Nat
South West: 3 ALP, 1 Lib, 1 Nat, 1 Grn
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