It has been an election campaign unlike any other I can recall. The Liberal Party has tried to flank Labor from the left on renewable energy, the opposition conceded defeat 16 days before the election and there has not been a single public poll all month.
News outlets continue to make predictions based on the most recent poll, which has Labor benefiting from a 12.5% swing. On these numbers Labor would claim 53 of the 59 seats, with only 2 remaining with the Liberals--Cottesloe and Vasse.
| Seat | Incumbent | ALP Margin (2PP) | Margin +12.5 | |
| Albany | ALP | 5.9 | 18.4 | ALP |
| Armadale | ALP | 25.2 | 37.7 | ALP |
| Balcatta | ALP | 8.0 | 20.5 | ALP |
| Baldivis | ALP | 16.6 | 29.1 | ALP |
| Bassendean | ALP | 21.6 | 34.1 | ALP |
| Bateman | LIB | -7.8 | 4.7 | ALP |
| Belmont | ALP | 11.4 | 23.9 | ALP |
| Bicton | ALP | 3.6 | 16.1 | ALP |
| Bunbury | ALP | 10.5 | 23.0 | ALP |
| Burns Beach | ALP | 5.4 | 17.9 | ALP |
| Butler | ALP | 20.5 | 33.0 | ALP |
| Cannington | ALP | 17.6 | 30.1 | ALP |
| Carine | LIB | -10.2 | 2.3 | ALP |
| Central Wheatbelt | NAT | -22.2 | -9.7 | NAT |
| Churchlands | LIB | -11.7 | 0.8 | ALP |
| Cockburn | ALP | 14.3 | 26.8 | ALP |
| Collie Preston | ALP | 14.7 | 27.2 | ALP |
| Cottesloe | LIB | -14.1 | -1.6 | LIB |
| Darling Range | LIB | -5.8 | 6.7 | ALP |
| Dawesville | LIB | -0.8 | 11.7 | ALP |
| Forrestfield | ALP | 9.4 | 21.9 | ALP |
| Fremantle | ALP | 23.0 | 35.5 | ALP |
| Geraldton | LIB | -1.3 | 11.2 | ALP |
| Hillarys | LIB | -0.4 | 12.1 | ALP |
| Jandakot | ALP | 1.8 | 14.3 | ALP |
| Joondalup | ALP | 0.0 | 12.5 | ALP |
| Kalamunda | ALP | 2.3 | 14.8 | ALP |
| Kalgoorlie | LIB | -6.2 | 6.3 | ALP |
| Kimberley | ALP | 13.1 | 25.6 | ALP |
| Kingsley | ALP | 1.2 | 13.7 | ALP |
| Kwinana | ALP | 20.7 | 33.2 | ALP |
| Landsdale | ALP | 9.6 | 22.1 | ALP |
| Mandurah | ALP | 18.0 | 30.5 | ALP |
| Maylands | ALP | 17.9 | 30.4 | ALP |
| Midland | ALP | 12.8 | 25.3 | ALP |
| Mirrabooka | ALP | 23.3 | 35.8 | ALP |
| Moore | NAT | N/A | NAT | |
| Morley | ALP | 12.3 | 24.8 | ALP |
| Mount Lawley | ALP | 4.0 | 16.5 | ALP |
| Murray-Wellington | ALP | 1.7 | 14.2 | ALP |
| Nedlands | LIB | -8.0 | 4.5 | ALP |
| North West Central | NAT | -10.1 | 2.4 | ALP |
| Perth | ALP | 12.6 | 25.1 | ALP |
| Pilbara | ALP | 2.2 | 14.7 | ALP |
| Riverton | LIB | -4.2 | 8.3 | ALP |
| Rockingham | ALP | 23.5 | 36.0 | ALP |
| Roe | NAT | N/A | NAT | |
| Scarborough | LIB | -5.7 | 6.8 | ALP |
| South Perth | LIB | -7.2 | 5.3 | ALP |
| Southern River | ALP | 7.9 | 20.4 | ALP |
| Swan Hills | ALP | 12.1 | 24.6 | ALP |
| Thornlie | ALP | 15.8 | 28.3 | ALP |
| Vasse | LIB | -14.6 | -2.1 | LIB |
| Victoria Park | ALP | 16.8 | 29.3 | ALP |
| Wanneroo | ALP | 8.6 | 21.1 | ALP |
| Warnbro | ALP | 23.7 | 36.2 | ALP |
| Warren-Blackwood | NAT | -12.8 | -0.3 | NAT |
| West Swan | ALP | 18.4 | 30.9 | ALP |
| Willagee | ALP | 17.7 | 30.2 | ALP |
As has been noted, the polling behind this number is the most lopsided newspoll every produced in any state of Australia. What has been generally overlooked by the major news outlets, however, is that two other polls came out two days before this one in the West Australian. Only one of these included 2PP numbers (Labor 61:39 Liberal), and this was the one with the less favourable Labor first-preference result so let's use that as the lower limit for a swing (5.5%).
| Seat | Incumbent | ALP Margin (2PP) | Margin +5.5 | |
| Albany | ALP | 5.9 | 11.4 | ALP |
| Armadale | ALP | 25.2 | 30.7 | ALP |
| Balcatta | ALP | 8.0 | 13.5 | ALP |
| Baldivis | ALP | 16.6 | 22.1 | ALP |
| Bassendean | ALP | 21.6 | 27.1 | ALP |
| Bateman | LIB | -7.8 | -2.3 | LIB |
| Belmont | ALP | 11.4 | 16.9 | ALP |
| Bicton | ALP | 3.6 | 9.1 | ALP |
| Bunbury | ALP | 10.5 | 16.0 | ALP |
| Burns Beach | ALP | 5.4 | 10.9 | ALP |
| Butler | ALP | 20.5 | 26.0 | ALP |
| Cannington | ALP | 17.6 | 23.1 | ALP |
| Carine | LIB | -10.2 | -4.7 | LIB |
| Central Wheatbelt | NAT | -22.2 | -16.7 | NAT |
| Churchlands | LIB | -11.7 | -6.2 | LIB |
| Cockburn | ALP | 14.3 | 19.8 | ALP |
| Collie Preston | ALP | 14.7 | 20.2 | ALP |
| Cottesloe | LIB | -14.1 | -8.6 | LIB |
| Darling Range | LIB | -5.8 | -0.3 | LIB |
| Dawesville | LIB | -0.8 | 4.7 | ALP |
| Forrestfield | ALP | 9.4 | 14.9 | ALP |
| Fremantle | ALP | 23.0 | 28.5 | ALP |
| Geraldton | LIB | -1.3 | 4.2 | ALP |
| Hillarys | LIB | -0.4 | 5.1 | ALP |
| Jandakot | ALP | 1.8 | 7.3 | ALP |
| Joondalup | ALP | 0.0 | 5.5 | ALP |
| Kalamunda | ALP | 2.3 | 7.8 | ALP |
| Kalgoorlie | LIB | -6.2 | -0.7 | LIB |
| Kimberley | ALP | 13.1 | 18.6 | ALP |
| Kingsley | ALP | 1.2 | 6.7 | ALP |
| Kwinana | ALP | 20.7 | 26.2 | ALP |
| Landsdale | ALP | 9.6 | 15.1 | ALP |
| Mandurah | ALP | 18.0 | 23.5 | ALP |
| Maylands | ALP | 17.9 | 23.4 | ALP |
| Midland | ALP | 12.8 | 18.3 | ALP |
| Mirrabooka | ALP | 23.3 | 28.8 | ALP |
| Moore | NAT | N/A | NAT | |
| Morley | ALP | 12.3 | 17.8 | ALP |
| Mount Lawley | ALP | 4.0 | 9.5 | ALP |
| Murray-Wellington | ALP | 1.7 | 7.2 | ALP |
| Nedlands | LIB | -8.0 | -2.5 | LIB |
| North West Central | NAT | -10.1 | -4.6 | NAT |
| Perth | ALP | 12.6 | 18.1 | ALP |
| Pilbara | ALP | 2.2 | 7.7 | ALP |
| Riverton | LIB | -4.2 | 1.3 | ALP |
| Rockingham | ALP | 23.5 | 29.0 | ALP |
| Roe | NAT | N/A | NAT | |
| Scarborough | LIB | -5.7 | -0.2 | LIB |
| South Perth | LIB | -7.2 | -1.7 | LIB |
| Southern River | ALP | 7.9 | 13.4 | ALP |
| Swan Hills | ALP | 12.1 | 17.6 | ALP |
| Thornlie | ALP | 15.8 | 21.3 | ALP |
| Vasse | LIB | -14.6 | -9.1 | LIB |
| Victoria Park | ALP | 16.8 | 22.3 | ALP |
| Wanneroo | ALP | 8.6 | 14.1 | ALP |
| Warnbro | ALP | 23.7 | 29.2 | ALP |
| Warren-Blackwood | NAT | -12.8 | -7.3 | NAT |
| West Swan | ALP | 18.4 | 23.9 | ALP |
| Willagee | ALP | 17.7 | 23.2 | ALP |
This gives Labor a more comprehensible 44 seats--still easily enough for a clear majority.
It is assumed in all of the above calculations that a swing to Labor is uniform against not only all Liberals but all Nationals candidates too. In the available polling this seems to hold true as both Liberals and Nationals lose somewhere close to one-in-three primary votes from the last election. This is off of a Nationals result of 5.4%, however, which isn't big enough to rely on nor is it representative of strong Nationals' seats.
The only Nationals seat predicted to change hands, even in the more extreme 12.5% scenario, is North West Central. with just over a 10% margin this would normally be a safe seat. The seat was only created at the last election, so there isn't any long-term data to look at but with a solid margin and a little skepticism around the touted 12.5% swing I'd be very cautious about striking this off for the coalition.
Also worth noting that Moore and Roe are assumed to be safe Nationals seats by default at Labor didn't even make it into the 2PP count; in both seats the contest last election was Nat v Lib.
Taking Moore, Roe and NWC as National holds, and accepting for now the results consistently predicted under both extremes of a 5.5% and 12.5% swing, only eight seats need any further discussion: Bateman, Carine, Churchlands, Darling Range, Kalgoorlie, Nedlands, Scarborough and South Perth. To that I'll ad Albany and the Pilbara for a nice round 10, as these two Labor seats are definitionally marginal (held by <6%) where the "other party" (2PP) last election was not Liberal but National.
| Seat | Incumbent | Prediction |
| Albany | ALP | |
| Armadale | ALP | ALP |
| Balcatta | ALP | ALP |
| Baldivis | ALP | ALP |
| Bassendean | ALP | ALP |
| Bateman | LIB | |
| Belmont | ALP | ALP |
| Bicton | ALP | ALP |
| Bunbury | ALP | ALP |
| Burns Beach | ALP | ALP |
| Butler | ALP | ALP |
| Cannington | ALP | ALP |
| Carine | LIB | |
| Central Wheatbelt | NAT | NAT |
| Churchlands | LIB | |
| Cockburn | ALP | ALP |
| Collie Preston | ALP | ALP |
| Cottesloe | LIB | LIB |
| Darling Range | LIB | |
| Dawesville | LIB | ALP |
| Forrestfield | ALP | ALP |
| Fremantle | ALP | ALP |
| Geraldton | LIB | ALP |
| Hillarys | LIB | ALP |
| Jandakot | ALP | ALP |
| Joondalup | ALP | ALP |
| Kalamunda | ALP | ALP |
| Kalgoorlie | LIB | |
| Kimberley | ALP | ALP |
| Kingsley | ALP | ALP |
| Kwinana | ALP | ALP |
| Landsdale | ALP | ALP |
| Mandurah | ALP | ALP |
| Maylands | ALP | ALP |
| Midland | ALP | ALP |
| Mirrabooka | ALP | ALP |
| Moore | NAT | NAT |
| Morley | ALP | ALP |
| Mount Lawley | ALP | ALP |
| Murray-Wellington | ALP | ALP |
| Nedlands | LIB | |
| North West Central | NAT | NAT |
| Perth | ALP | ALP |
| Pilbara | ALP | |
| Riverton | LIB | ALP |
| Rockingham | ALP | ALP |
| Roe | NAT | NAT |
| Scarborough | LIB | |
| South Perth | LIB | |
| Southern River | ALP | ALP |
| Swan Hills | ALP | ALP |
| Thornlie | ALP | ALP |
| Vasse | LIB | LIB |
| Victoria Park | ALP | ALP |
| Wanneroo | ALP | ALP |
| Warnbro | ALP | ALP |
| Warren-Blackwood | NAT | NAT |
| West Swan | ALP | ALP |
| Willagee | ALP | ALP |
ALBANY
Identified as a possible Coalition gain if the Nats don't follow the polling trend of the Libs. This is bolstered by the retirement of the Labor incumbent. That said, Albany Nationals would require a swing of 5.1% against a popular ruling party with advantages including not being the party ruling in Canberra, presiding over a successful state COVID response and being a relatively young government.
Also, although the Nationals did well in 2017 (and likely will beat the Libs again in 2021) they are not the automatic Coalition choice for Albany. Prior to the incumbent, the Liberals held the seat. Albany is not as remote as many WA seats. And with 20 years of Labor incumbency, this will be a hard seat to push the dial on.
Predict: ALP Hold
BATEMAN
Liberals hold Bateman by 9.5%. It has also been blue since it was founded in 2008. With such a strong Liberal history and possibly already close to as red as possible after 2017's 13.7% swing to Labor, Bateman will be one of the seats the Coalition will be pointing to as evidence of Labor under-performing on Saturday.
Predict: Lib Hold
CARINE
Carine is very similar to Bateman. It is held by 9%, which is right on the safe end of "fairly safe". Liberals have held Carine since its creation in 1998.
Predict: Lib Hold
CHURCHLANDS
Although following redistribution this seat is held by (just) less than 12.5%, in 2017 it was won by over 13%. It has never been won by Labor, although it was independent for the first half of its history. This is a "safe" seat, and if the Libs can hold anything in the 12.5% range it'll be Churchlands.
Predict: Lib Hold
DARLING RANGE
Darling Range was created in 1950 and abolished in 1974 only to be reestablished in 1977. It the seat's 68 year history it has been a Coalition seat for 63 years (Liberal for 51 of those) and Labor for less than 12 months in 2017. That said, Darling Range was won by Labor with a margin of 5.8% at the last general election and then reclaimed by Liberals with 3.5% at a by-election.
This will be a seat both sides desperately want to win. For Labor, locking down DR a second time will be a significant psychological victory. For the Liberals, reclaiming the seat for good will lead to the party claiming that they were the real winners of the election by stemming Labor's gains in a year they threatened to wipe the floor.
Still, Labor did the hard work in 2017. Wining it a second time is a lot less daunting than the first.
Predict: ALP Win.
KALGOORLIE
Liberals hold Kal by 6.2%, only just above the more conservative 5.5% swing prediction. It has been 20 years since the seat had a Labor member, but it was solidly red pretty well back to 1901 before that. Definitely one of the top 3 seats to watch, this one is anybody's guess.
Predict: ALP Win.
NEDLANDS
Quite possibly a litmus test for the whole election, with a margin of 8.3% falls easily within the commonly touted 12.5% but well outside the 5.5% swings. The fact that Labor has never won the seat in its 91 year history is what pushes this decision over the line for me, but there is a first time for everything, right?
Predict: Lib Hold.
PILBARA
Pilbara is probably the Coalition's best bet of winning a new seat. The first-term incumbent replaced a Nationals candidate, meaning the polling showing a Liberal collapse may not hold out here. I say "here" as I have some first hand knowledge of this seat and am reporting for this very location. Interestingly, the Liberal candidate has had a much higher presence in the electoral materials I've seen than the Nationals. Further, the popular Nationals candidate that preceded the incumbent is not running. So while I think this is the Coalition's best hope, I don't see much of that hope around...
Predict: ALP Hold.
SCARBOROUGH
Scarborough is held by a mere 5.6%. It is possible that the swing here will fall well short of this, but the reverse is also possible. If Labor cannot take this seat, it will be a sad night for them.
Predict: ALP Win.
SOUTH PERTH
7.1% is certainly no sure margin this election, but with Liberals or aligned Independents winning South Perth every election since 1950 it is one of the seats the Libs should have been sandbagging hard.
Predict: Lib Hold.
FINAL PREDICTION:
| Seat | Incumbent | Prediction |
| Albany | ALP | ALP |
| Armadale | ALP | ALP |
| Balcatta | ALP | ALP |
| Baldivis | ALP | ALP |
| Bassendean | ALP | ALP |
| Bateman | LIB | LIB |
| Belmont | ALP | ALP |
| Bicton | ALP | ALP |
| Bunbury | ALP | ALP |
| Burns Beach | ALP | ALP |
| Butler | ALP | ALP |
| Cannington | ALP | ALP |
| Carine | LIB | LIB |
| Central Wheatbelt | NAT | NAT |
| Churchlands | LIB | LIB |
| Cockburn | ALP | ALP |
| Collie Preston | ALP | ALP |
| Cottesloe | LIB | LIB |
| Darling Range | LIB | ALP |
| Dawesville | LIB | ALP |
| Forrestfield | ALP | ALP |
| Fremantle | ALP | ALP |
| Geraldton | LIB | ALP |
| Hillarys | LIB | ALP |
| Jandakot | ALP | ALP |
| Joondalup | ALP | ALP |
| Kalamunda | ALP | ALP |
| Kalgoorlie | LIB | ALP |
| Kimberley | ALP | ALP |
| Kingsley | ALP | ALP |
| Kwinana | ALP | ALP |
| Landsdale | ALP | ALP |
| Mandurah | ALP | ALP |
| Maylands | ALP | ALP |
| Midland | ALP | ALP |
| Mirrabooka | ALP | ALP |
| Moore | NAT | NAT |
| Morley | ALP | ALP |
| Mount Lawley | ALP | ALP |
| Murray-Wellington | ALP | ALP |
| Nedlands | LIB | LIB |
| North West Central | NAT | NAT |
| Perth | ALP | ALP |
| Pilbara | ALP | ALP |
| Riverton | LIB | ALP |
| Rockingham | ALP | ALP |
| Roe | NAT | NAT |
| Scarborough | LIB | ALP |
| South Perth | LIB | LIB |
| Southern River | ALP | ALP |
| Swan Hills | ALP | ALP |
| Thornlie | ALP | ALP |
| Vasse | LIB | LIB |
| Victoria Park | ALP | ALP |
| Wanneroo | ALP | ALP |
| Warnbro | ALP | ALP |
| Warren-Blackwood | NAT | NAT |
| West Swan | ALP | ALP |
| Willagee | ALP | ALP |
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