Iran and South Korea's elections, potentially reflecting a response to the election of Donald Trump and conflict in their respective regions would have been topical, plus the South Korean election had the bizarre circumstances surrounding Park Geun-Hye's impeachment for a bit of interest—a tale involving corruption, a 4% approval rating, and a spirit medium. Then, of course, there was the unusually prominent French election, won by Macron. However, as the UK national election draws close and a fragment of free time provides itself, I feel I must at least provide some analysis of the contests I have historically considered. First, however, a quick review of my woeful WA state election predictions:
A Quick Review of my Woeful WA State Election Predictions
The swing to the Western Australian Labor Party was large and inevitable. That much was apparent before the polls even opened. My Legislative Assembly estimates erred on the conservative side (both in the sense of assuming a more modest swing than eventuated, and in the sense that I gave the Coalition more seats than they ended up winning.) This was the result of taking the breadth of available polling as “the outer limits of possible results” while, as with the US elections and Brexit and, it seems, every election these days the polling proved to be way off. I gave the ALP 32 of the 59 seats. The most pro-ALP polling used would have given them 34. Some commentators were certainly predicting more, but I had no data available to support that. In the end, the ALP won 41 of the 59 seats:| Electorate | Prior Incumbent | Prediction | Result |
| Albany | ALP | ALP | ALP |
| Armadale | ALP | ALP | ALP |
| Balcatta | LIB | ALP | ALP |
| Baldivis | ALP | ALP | ALP |
| Bassendean | ALP | ALP | ALP |
| Bateman | LIB | LIB | LIB |
| Belmont | LIB | ALP | ALP |
| Bicton | LIB | ALP | ALP |
| Bunbury | LIB | LIB | ALP |
| Burns Beach | LIB | LIB | ALP |
| Butler | ALP | ALP | ALP |
| Cannington | ALP | ALP | ALP |
| Carine | LIB | LIB | LIB |
| Central Wheatbelt | NAT | NAT | NAT |
| Churchlands | LIB | LIB | LIB |
| Cockburn | ALP | ALP | ALP |
| Collie-Preston | ALP | ALP | ALP |
| Cottesloe | LIB | LIB | LIB |
| Darling Range | LIB | LIB | ALP |
| Dawesville | LIB | LIB | LIB |
| Forrestfield | LIB | ALP | ALP |
| Fremantle | ALP | ALP | ALP |
| Geraldton | LIB | LIB | LIB |
| Girrawheen | ALP | ALP | ALP |
| Hillarys | LIB | LIB | LIB |
| Jandakot | LIB | LIB | ALP |
| Joondalup | LIB | ALP | ALP |
| Kalamunda | LIB | LIB | ALP |
| Kalgoorlie | NAT | NAT | LIB |
| Kimberley | ALP | ALP | ALP |
| Kingsley | LIB | LIB | ALP |
| Kwinana | ALP | ALP | ALP |
| Mandurah | ALP | ALP | ALP |
| Maylands | ALP | ALP | ALP |
| Midland | ALP | ALP | ALP |
| Mirrabooka | ALP | ALP | ALP |
| Moore | NAT | NAT | NAT |
| Morley | LIB | ALP | ALP |
| Mount Lawley | LIB | ALP | ALP |
| Murray-Wellington | LIB | LIB | ALP |
| Nedlands | LIB | LIB | LIB |
| North West Central | NAT | NAT | NAT |
| Perth | LIB | ALP | ALP |
| Pilbara | NAT | NAT | ALP |
| Riverton | LIB | LIB | LIB |
| Rockingham | ALP | ALP | ALP |
| Roe | NAT | NAT | NAT |
| Scarborough | LIB | LIB | LIB |
| South Perth | LIB | LIB | LIB |
| Southern River | LIB | ALP | ALP |
| Swan Hills | LIB | ALP | ALP |
| Thornlie | ALP | ALP | ALP |
| Vasse | LIB | LIB | LIB |
| Victoria Park | ALP | ALP | ALP |
| Wanneroo | LIB | LIB | ALP |
| Warnbro | ALP | ALP | ALP |
| Warren-Blackwood | NAT | NAT | NAT |
| West Swan | ALP | ALP | ALP |
| Willagee | ALP | ALP | ALP |
Pleasingly, however, the only inter-Coalition contest I got wrong was Kalgoorlie, which I had identified as a significant outlier based on its electoral history. So perhaps I'm not a pretty face [sic]. This and the 9 additional ALP wins were the only mistakes, however, giving me a success rating of 49/59, or 83%.
In the Legislative Council I had a similarly sub-par result. In each LegCo district I correctly predicted 4 of the 6 candidates except North Metro where I scored 5 of 6:
| EAST METROPOLITAN | |||
| Predicted | Elected | ||
| Tim Clifford | Greens | Tim Clifford | Greens |
| Alanna Clohesy | Labor | Alanna Clohesy | Labor |
| Donna Faragher | Liberal | Donna Faragher | Liberal |
| Alyssa Hayden | Liberal | Charles Smith | One Nation |
| Samantha Rowe | Labor | Samantha Rowe | Labor |
| John Watt | Fluoride Free | Matthew Swinbourn | Labor |
| NORTH METROPOLITAN | |||
| Predicted | Elected | ||
| Peter Collier | Liberal | Peter Collier | Liberal |
| Henry Heng | Family First | Tjorn Sibma | Liberal |
| Michael Mischin | Liberal | Michael Mischin | Liberal |
| Martin Pritchard | Labor | Martin Pritchard | Labor |
| Alannah MacTiernan | Labor | Alannah MacTiernan | Labor |
| Alison Xamon | Greens | Alison Xamon | Greens |
| SOUTH METROPOLITAN | |||
| Predicted | Elected | ||
| Kate Doust | Labor | Kate Doust | Labor |
| Sue Ellery | Labor | Sue Ellery | Labor |
| Nick Goiran | Liberal | Nick Goiran | Liberal |
| Lynn MacLaren | Greens | Aaron Stonehouse | Lib Dem |
| Simon O'Brien | Liberal | Simon O'Brien | Liberal |
| Wilson Tucker | Daylight Saving | Pierre Yang | Labor |
| AGRICULTURAL | |||
| Predicted | Elected | ||
| Jim Chown | Liberal | Jim Chown | Liberal |
| Laurie Graham | Labor | Laurie Graham | Labor |
| Steve Martin | Liberal | Martin Aldridge | National |
| Rick Mazza | Shooters | Rick Mazza | Shooters |
| Darren West | Labor | Darren West | Labor |
| Connor Whittle | Lib Dem | Colin de Grussa | National |
| MINING AND PASTORAL | |||
| Predicted | Elected | ||
| Ken Baston | Liberal | Ken Baston | Liberal |
| Robin Chapple | Greens | Robin Chapple | Greens |
| Stephen Dawson | Labor | Stephen Dawson | Labor |
| Kyle McGinn | Labor | Kyle McGinn | Labor |
| Mark Lewis | Liberal | Jacqui Boydell | National |
| Kai Shanks | Flux | Robin Scott | One Nation |
| SOUTH WEST | |||
| Predicted | Elected | ||
| Wade De Campo | Liberal | Colin Halt | National |
| Diane Evers | Greens | Diane Evers | Greens |
| Adele Farina | Labor | Adele Farina | Labor |
| Hayley Green | Fluoride Free | Colin Tincknell | One Nation |
| Sally Talbot | Labor | Sally Talbot | Labor |
| Steve Thomas | Liberal | Steve Thomas | Liberal |
This comes to 25/36, or 69% success. Quite poor.
On a whole-house, party basis this resulted in 9 errors: 1 Daylight Saving, 1 Family First, 2 Fluoride Free, 1 Flux, 1 Greens and 3 Liberal predictions were replaced by 2 ALP members, 4 Nationals and 3 One Nation – the latter two being parties I expected to win some of the late-preference seats without knowing where or how many.
| WA LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL | |
| Predicted | Elected |
| Daylight Saving | 1 |
| Family First | 2 |
| Fluoride Free | 3 |
| Fluoride Free | 4 |
| Flux | 5 |
| Greens | Greens |
| Greens | Greens |
| Greens | Greens |
| Greens | Greens |
| Greens | 6 |
| Labor | Labor |
| Labor | Labor |
| Labor | Labor |
| Labor | Labor |
| Labor | Labor |
| Labor | Labor |
| Labor | Labor |
| Labor | Labor |
| Labor | Labor |
| Labor | Labor |
| Labor | Labor |
| Labor | Labor |
| 1 | Labor |
| 2 | Labor |
| Lib Dem | Lib Dem |
| Liberal | Liberal |
| Liberal | Liberal |
| Liberal | Liberal |
| Liberal | Liberal |
| Liberal | Liberal |
| Liberal | Liberal |
| Liberal | Liberal |
| Liberal | Liberal |
| Liberal | Liberal |
| Liberal | 7 |
| Liberal | 8 |
| Liberal | 9 |
| 3 | National |
| 4 | National |
| 5 | National |
| 6 | National |
| 7 | One Nation |
| 8 | One Nation |
| 9 | One Nation |
| Shooters | Shooters |
And that concludes the revision of my well-off-the-mark predictions from March. Perhaps my guesses on the UK election will be marginally more accurate?
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