Wednesday 7 June 2017

Now for the exceptions

To deal with the easiest first, Buckingham is almost certainly going to stay with the speaker because that's how the Speaker's seat is. The independents in North Down and East Devon are both contesting their seats, so we can expect a comparable contest with 2015. In both cases the winning candidate held almost 50% of the votes, with their nearest rival being around half that. I think it is fair to expect no real change in those seats on those numbers. That leaves Belfast South and the 79 seats where the 3rd party is within 10% of the second.

In these 80 seats, we can apply a similar method to that we used for 2 party races, but based on 3-way splits of the vote (the 3P%) and the following calculations:

CONTEST LAST ELECTION (VOTES) RECENT POLL (%) SWING
Party 1 Party 2 Party 3 Party 1 % Party 2 % Party 3 % Party 1 % Party 2 % Party 3 % Percentage Points
Conservative Green Labour 11,299,959 51.83% 1,157,613 5.31% 9,344,328 42.86% 45 54.88% 3 3.66% 34 41.46% Conservative +3.05 Green -1.65 Labour -1.40
Conservative Labour Lib Dem 11,299,959 49.00% 9,344,328 40.52% 2,415,888 10.48% 45 51.72% 34 39.08% 8 9.20% Conservative +2.72 Labour -1.44 Lib Dem -1.28
Conservative Labour Scottish National 434,097 16.72% 707,147 27.24% 1,454,436 56.03% 27 29.35% 25 27.17% 40 43.48% Conservative +12.62 Labour -0.07 Scottish National -12.55
Conservative Labour UKIP 11,299,959 46.07% 9,344,328 38.10% 3,881,129 15.82% 45 53.57% 34 40.48% 5 5.95% Conservative +7.50 Labour +2.38 UKIP -9.87
Conservative Lib Dem UKIP 11,299,959 64.22% 2,415,888 13.73% 3,881,129 22.06% 45 77.59% 8 13.79% 5 8.62% Conservative +13.37 Lib Dem +0.06 UKIP -13.43
Labour Lib Dem UKIP 9,344,328 59.74% 2,415,888 15.45% 3,881,129 24.81% 34 72.34% 8 17.02% 5 10.64% Labour +12.60 Lib Dem +1.58 UKIP -14.17
Labour Plaid Cymru UKIP 552,473 58.87% 181,704 19.36% 204,330 36.98% 46 77.97% 8 13.56% 5 10.66% Labour +19.10 Plaid Cymru -5.80 UKIP -26.33
Alliance Social Democrat Unionist 61,556 17.81% 99,809 28.88% 184,260 53.31% 9.8 18.74% 13.7 26.20% 28.8 55.07% Alliance +0.93 Social Democrat -2.68 Unionist +1.75
Alliance Ulster Unionist 61,556 17.68% 102,361 29.40% 184,260 52.92% 9.8 18.01% 15.8 29.04% 28.8 52.94% Alliance +0.34 Ulster -0.36 Unionist +0.02
Sinn Féin Social Democrat Unionist 176,232 38.29% 99,809 21.68% 184,260 40.03% 27.9 39.63% 13.7 19.46% 28.8 40.91% Sinn Féin +1.34 Social Democrat -2.22 Unionist +0.88
Sinn Féin Ulster Unionist 176,232 38.08% 102,361 22.12% 184,260 39.81% 27.9 38.48% 15.8 21.79% 28.8 39.72% Sinn Féin +0.41 Ulster -0.32 Unionist -0.09

Which we apply like so:

Constituency Incumbent Second Party Third Party Modifiers Prediction
Party Votes 3P% Party Votes 3P% Party Votes 3P% Incumbent Second Third Party Vote Share
Aldershot Conservative 23,369 58.29% Labour 8,468 21.12% UKIP 8,253 20.59% +7.50 +2.38 -9.87 Conservative 65.79%
Ashfield Labour 19,448 48.35% Conservative 10,628 26.42% UKIP 10,150 25.23% +2.38 +7.50 -9.87 Labour 50.73%
Ashford Conservative 30,094 58.47% UKIP 10,798 20.98% Labour 10,580 20.55% +7.50 -9.87 +2.38 Conservative 65.97%
Ashton-under-Lyne Labour 19,366 53.14% Conservative 8,610 23.63% UKIP 8,468 23.24% +2.38 +7.50 -9.87 Labour 55.52%
Belfast South Social Democrat 9,560 38.36% Unionist 8,654 34.72% Alliance 6,711 26.92% -2.68 +1.75 +0.93 Unionist 36.47%
Birmingham Hodge Hill Labour 28,069 75.00% Conservative 4,707 12.58% UKIP 4,651 12.43% +2.38 +7.50 -9.87 Labour 77.38%
Blackley & Broughton Labour 22,982 66.29% UKIP 6,108 17.62% Conservative 5,581 16.10% +2.38 -9.87 +7.50 Labour 68.67%
Blaydon Labour 22,090 58.45% UKIP 7,863 20.81% Conservative 7,838 20.74% +2.38 -9.87 +7.50 Labour 60.83%
Blyth Valley Labour 17,813 51.27% UKIP 8,584 24.71% Conservative 8,346 24.02% +2.38 -9.87 +7.50 Labour 53.65%
Bournemouth East Conservative 22,060 59.77% Labour 7,448 20.18% UKIP 7,401 20.05% +7.50 +2.38 -9.87 Conservative 67.27%
Bournemouth West Conservative 20,155 57.12% UKIP 7,745 21.95% Labour 7,386 20.93% +7.50 -9.87 +2.38 Conservative 64.62%
Bracknell Conservative 29,606 63.12% Labour 8,956 19.10% UKIP 8,339 17.78% +7.50 +2.38 -9.87 Conservative 70.62%
Bradford South Labour 16,328 46.30% Conservative 9,878 28.01% UKIP 9,057 25.68% +2.38 +7.50 -9.87 Labour 48.68%
Braintree Conservative 27,071 59.07% UKIP 9,461 20.64% Labour 9,296 20.28% +7.50 -9.87 +2.38 Conservative 66.57%
Bridgwater & Somerset West Conservative 25,020 55.54% UKIP 10,437 23.17% Labour 9,589 21.29% +7.50 -9.87 +2.38 Conservative 63.04%
Broxbourne Conservative 25,797 59.52% UKIP 9,074 20.94% Labour 8,470 19.54% +7.50 -9.87 +2.38 Conservative 67.02%
Central Devon Conservative 28,436 66.76% UKIP 7,171 16.84% Labour 6,985 16.40% +7.50 -9.87 +2.38 Conservative 74.26%
Chesham & Amersham Conservative 31,138 69.09% UKIP 7,218 16.02% Labour 6,712 14.89% +7.50 -9.87 +2.38 Conservative 76.59%
Chesterfield Labour 21,829 58.08% Conservative 8,231 21.90% UKIP 7,523 20.02% +2.38 +7.50 -9.87 Labour 60.46%
Cynon Valley Labour 14,532 58.99% Plaid Cymru 5,126 20.81% UKIP 4,976 20.20% +19.10 -5.80 -26.33 Labour 78.09%
Don Valley Labour 19,621 48.66% Conservative 10,736 26.63% UKIP 9,963 24.71% +2.38 +7.50 -9.87 Labour 51.04%
East Hampshire Conservative 31,334 72.44% UKIP 6,187 14.30% Lib Dem 5,732 13.25% +13.37 -13.43 +0.06 Conservative 85.81%
Fareham Conservative 30,689 65.41% UKIP 8,427 17.96% Labour 7,800 16.63% +7.50 -9.87 +2.38 Conservative 72.91%
Grantham and Stamford Conservative 28,399 60.58% UKIP 9,410 20.07% Labour 9,070 19.35% +7.50 -9.87 +2.38 Conservative 68.08%
Great Grimsby Labour 13,414 43.69% Conservative 8,874 28.90% UKIP 8,417 27.41% +2.38 +7.50 -9.87 Labour 46.07%
Hackney North and Stoke Newington Labour 31,357 68.19% Conservative 7,349 15.98% Green 7,281 15.83% -1.40 +3.05 -1.65 Labour 66.79%
Harborough Conservative 27,675 63.98% Labour 8,043 18.59% UKIP 7,539 17.43% +7.50 +2.38 -9.87 Conservative 71.48%
Huntingdon Conservative 29,652 60.06% Labour 10,248 20.76% UKIP 9,473 19.19% +7.50 +2.38 -9.87 Conservative 67.56%
Kingston upon Hull North Labour 18,661 62.77% UKIP 5,762 19.38% Conservative 5,306 17.85% +2.38 -9.87 +7.50 Labour 65.15%
Lagan Valley Unionist 19,055 62.16% Ulster 6,055 19.75% Alliance 5,544 18.09% +0.02 -0.36 +0.34 Unionist 62.18%
Leeds Central Labour 24,758 62.47% Conservative 7,791 19.66% UKIP 7,082 17.87% +2.38 +7.50 -9.87 Labour 64.85%
Leeds East Labour 20,530 57.37% Conservative 7,997 22.35% UKIP 7,256 20.28% +2.38 +7.50 -9.87 Labour 59.75%
Leeds West Labour 18,456 55.44% Conservative 7,729 23.22% UKIP 7,104 21.34% +2.38 +7.50 -9.87 Labour 57.82%
Ludlow Conservative 26,093 65.68% UKIP 7,164 18.03% Lib Dem 6,469 16.28% +13.37 -13.43 +0.06 Conservative 79.05%
Manchester, Gorton Labour 28,187 77.53% Green 4,108 11.30% Conservative 4,063 11.17% -1.40 -1.65 +3.05 Labour 76.13%
Mid Bedfordshire Conservative 32,544 64.16% Labour 9,217 18.17% UKIP 8,966 17.68% +7.50 +2.38 -9.87 Conservative 71.66%
Mid Norfolk Conservative 27,206 58.23% UKIP 9,930 21.25% Labour 9,585 20.52% +7.50 -9.87 +2.38 Conservative 65.73%
Neath Labour 16,270 55.94% Plaid Cymru 6,722 23.11% UKIP 6,094 20.95% +19.10 -5.80 -26.33 Labour 75.04%
Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford Labour 25,213 56.57% UKIP 9,785 21.96% Conservative 9,569 21.47% +2.38 -9.87 +7.50 Labour 58.95%
North Antrim Unionist 18,107 63.97% Sinn Féin 5,143 18.17% Ulster 5,054 17.86% -0.09 +0.41 -0.32 Unionist 63.88%
North East Bedfordshire Conservative 34,891 66.19% Labour 9,247 17.54% UKIP 8,579 16.27% +7.50 +2.38 -9.87 Conservative 73.69%
North East Hampshire Conservative 35,573 76.47% Lib Dem 5,657 12.16% Labour 5,290 11.37% +2.72 -1.28 -1.44 Conservative 79.19%
North Somerset Conservative 31,540 66.19% Labour 8,441 17.71% UKIP 7,669 16.09% +7.50 +2.38 -9.87 Conservative 73.69%
North West Hampshire Conservative 32,052 67.47% UKIP 8,109 17.07% Labour 7,342 15.46% +7.50 -9.87 +2.38 Conservative 74.97%
Ogmore Labour 18,663 62.83% Conservative 5,620 18.92% UKIP 5,420 18.25% +2.38 +7.50 -9.87 Labour 65.21%
Old Bexley and Sidcup Conservative 24,682 58.64% Labour 8,879 21.10% UKIP 8,528 20.26% +7.50 +2.38 -9.87 Conservative 66.14%
Oldham West and Royton Labour 23,630 58.05% UKIP 8,892 21.84% Conservative 8,187 20.11% +2.38 -9.87 +7.50 Labour 60.43%
Orpington Conservative 28,152 64.03% UKIP 8,173 18.59% Labour 7,645 17.39% +7.50 -9.87 +2.38 Conservative 71.53%
Redcar Labour 17,946 54.35% Lib Dem 7,558 22.89% UKIP 7,516 22.76% +12.60 +1.58 -14.17 Labour 66.95%
Reigate Conservative 29,151 68.52% UKIP 6,817 16.02% Labour 6,578 15.46% +7.50 -9.87 +2.38 Conservative 76.02%
Rochdale Labour 20,961 56.31% UKIP 8,519 22.89% Conservative 7,742 20.80% +2.38 -9.87 +7.50 Labour 58.69%
Romford Conservative 25,067 53.86% UKIP 11,208 24.08% Labour 10,268 22.06% +7.50 -9.87 +2.38 Conservative 61.36%
Rutland and Melton Conservative 30,383 64.04% UKIP 8,678 18.29% Labour 8,383 17.67% +7.50 -9.87 +2.38 Conservative 71.54%
South East Cornwall Conservative 25,516 61.14% Lib Dem 8,521 20.42% UKIP 7,698 18.44% +13.37 +0.06 -13.43 Conservative 74.51%
Sheffield, Heeley Labour 20,269 58.96% UKIP 7,315 21.28% Conservative 6,792 19.76% +2.38 -9.87 +7.50 Labour 61.34%
Sleaford and North Hykeham Conservative 34,805 63.04% Labour 10,690 19.36% UKIP 9,716 17.60% +7.50 +2.38 -9.87 Conservative 70.54%
South Basildon and East Thurrock Conservative 19,788 45.62% UKIP 12,097 27.89% Labour 11,493 26.49% +7.50 -9.87 +2.38 Conservative 53.12%
South Staffordshire Conservative 29,478 62.92% Labour 9,107 19.44% UKIP 8,267 17.64% +7.50 +2.38 -9.87 Conservative 70.42%
Southend West Conservative 22,175 58.15% Labour 8,154 21.38% UKIP 7,803 20.46% +7.50 +2.38 -9.87 Conservative 65.65%
Stirling Scottish National 23,783 48.40% Labour 13,303 27.07% Conservative 12,051 24.53% -12.55 -0.07 +12.62 Conservative 37.15%
Stoke-on-Trent Central Labour 12,220 46.52% UKIP 7,041 26.80% Conservative 7,008 26.68% +2.38 -9.87 +7.50 Labour 48.90%
Stoke-on-Trent North Labour 15,429 43.38% Conservative 10,593 29.79% UKIP 9,542 26.83% +2.38 +7.50 -9.87 Labour 45.76%
Strangford Unionist 15,053 61.17% Ulster 4,868 19.78% Alliance 4,687 19.05% +0.02 -0.36 +0.34 Unionist 61.19%
Stratford-on-Avon Conservative 29,674 68.77% UKIP 6,798 15.75% Labour 6,677 15.47% +7.50 -9.87 +2.38 Conservative 76.27%
South West Surrey Conservative 28,784 72.25% UKIP 5,643 14.16% Labour 5,415 13.59% +7.50 -9.87 +2.38 Conservative 79.75%
Tewkesbury Conservative 30,176 65.59% Labour 8,204 17.83% Lib Dem 7,629 16.58% +2.72 -1.44 -1.28 Conservative 68.31%
Thirsk and Malton Conservative 27,545 63.41% Labour 8,089 18.62% UKIP 7,805 17.97% +7.50 +2.38 -9.87 Conservative 70.91%
Thurrock Conservative 16,692 34.37% Labour 16,156 33.27% UKIP 15,718 32.36% +7.50 +2.38 -9.87 Conservative 41.87%
Tonbridge and Malling Conservative 31,887 66.93% UKIP 8,153 17.11% Labour 7,604 15.96% +7.50 -9.87 +2.38 Conservative 74.43%
Truro and Falmouth Conservative 22,681 57.90% Lib Dem 8,681 22.16% Labour 7,814 19.95% +2.72 -1.28 -1.44 Conservative 60.62%
Washington and Sunderland West Labour 20,478 58.79% UKIP 7,321 21.02% Conservative 7,033 20.19% +2.38 -9.87 +7.50 Labour 61.17%
Wellingborough Conservative 26,265 57.13% UKIP 9,868 21.47% Labour 9,839 21.40% +7.50 -9.87 +2.38 Conservative 64.63%
West Bromwich West Labour 16,578 49.08% UKIP 8,836 26.16% Conservative 8,365 24.76% +2.38 -9.87 +7.50 Labour 51.46%
West Tyrone Sinn Féin 16,807 56.03% Unionist 6,747 22.49% Social Democrat 6,444 21.48% +1.34 +0.88 -2.22 Sinn Féin 57.37%
West Worcestershire Conservative 30,342 66.91% UKIP 7,764 17.12% Labour 7,244 15.97% +7.50 -9.87 +2.38 Conservative 74.41%
Weston-Super-Mare Conservative 25,203 57.07% Labour 9,594 21.72% UKIP 9,366 21.21% +7.50 +2.38 -9.87 Conservative 64.57%
Wigan Labour 23,625 56.48% Conservative 9,389 22.44% UKIP 8,818 21.08% +2.38 +7.50 -9.87 Labour 58.86%
Witham Conservative 27,123 64.34% UKIP 7,569 17.95% Labour 7,467 17.71% +7.50 -9.87 +2.38 Conservative 71.84%
Wokingham Conservative 32,329 67.31% Labour 8,132 16.93% Lib Dem 7,572 15.76% +2.72 -1.44 -1.28 Conservative 70.03%
Wolverhampton South East Labour 18,539 55.57% Conservative 7,761 23.26% UKIP 7,061 21.17% +2.38 +7.50 -9.87 Labour 57.95%

and that completes our predictions:







That amounts to the Conservatives winning 23 seats (14 from Labour, 7 from the Scottish Nationals, 1 from the Lib Dems and 1 from UKIP), Labour winning two (1 each from Plaid Cymru and the Scottish Nationals), Sinn Féin winning one from the Ulster Unionists and the Democratic Unionists taking one from the Social Democrats to give:

Conservative: 353 (Majority)
Labour: 220
Scottish Nationals: 48
Democratic Unionists: 9
Lib Dems: 7
Sinn Féin: 5
Plaid Cymru: 2
Social Democrat: 2
Green: 1
Ulster Unionists: 1
Independent: 1
and the Speaker.

As a completely unjustified footnote, however, I expect the Scottish Nationals to do better here than expected, based on a surge in nationalism and a desire for a second referendum to leave Britain and rejoin the EU. I expect UKIP to lose more than their one predicted loss now that their main draw card—leaving the EU—has been achieved. And I expect the Lib Dems to do better than suggested, returning to their default position of 3rd party nationally after an anomalously bad result in 2015 skewing the data.

2 comments:

  1. I'm looking forward to voting in the seat of Oxford West tomorrow!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Oxford West and Abingdon looked quite safe for the Conservatives with an almost 17% margin over the Liberal Democrats, but the Lib Dems have historically done a decent job of rivaling the Tories here.

      The seat has now been called for the Lib Dems--the only one to change hands in Oxfordshire--which just goes to show the importance of turning out to vote an never writing a seat off.

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