Is anyone out there? Hello? Oh well.
It has technically been Election Day for about an hour and a quarter in Washington D.C. – Seattle has to wait another couple of hours though. And being just after 1 AM, there have obviously not been any votes cast – ignoring postal votes, of course.
So, before any exit poll data is announced, here is my US Senate pre-poll predictions for the 2010 Midterm Elections:
*New York has both Senate seats up for Election in 2010
Remember that the last time most of these people faced election was the 2004 Presidential Elections, which saw a slight swing to the Republicans. 2010 promises bigger Republican support, however, so it would not be surprising to see North Carolina return to the Republicans with several formerly Democratic Tossups. However, with 40 Democrat seats carrying over and only 23 republicans, the Democrats have a distinct advantage in known seats – a lead of 17.
If the Likely seats fall as predicted, this will reduce the Democrats’ lead to 6, with 47 seats against the Republicans’ 41. Factoring in Possible seats as well, both sides gain 3 leaving the tally at 50 to 44 in favour of the Democrats. Allowing for the Dems to pick up a few Tossups, and expecting any likely or possible seats lost to be compensated by gains in the Tossups would give the Democrats a strong enough lead to govern the Senate until 2012.
It has technically been Election Day for about an hour and a quarter in Washington D.C. – Seattle has to wait another couple of hours though. And being just after 1 AM, there have obviously not been any votes cast – ignoring postal votes, of course.
So, before any exit poll data is announced, here is my US Senate pre-poll predictions for the 2010 Midterm Elections:
- Alabama (Formerly Republican) – Likely Republican seat
- Alaska (Formerly Republican) – Likely Republican seat
- Arizona (Formerly Republican) – Likely Republican seat
- Arkansas (Formerly Democrat) – Likely Republican seat
- California (Formerly Democrat) – Possible Democrat seat
- Colorado (Formerly Democrat) – Tossup
- Connecticut (Retiring Democrat) – Possible Democrat seat
- Delaware (Retiring Democrat) – Likely Democrat seat
- Florida (Retiring Republican) – Likely Republican seat
- Georgia (Formerly Republican) – Likely Republican seat
- Hawaii (Formerly Democrat) – Likely Democrat seat
- Idaho (Formerly Republican) – Likely Republican seat
- Illinois (Retiring Democrat) – Tossup
- Indiana (Retiring Democrat) – Likely Republican seat
- Iowa (Formerly Republican) – Likely Republican seat
- Kansas (Retiring Republican) – Likely Republican seat
- Kentucky (Retiring Republican) – Possible Republican seat
- Louisiana (Formerly Republican) – Likely Republican seat
- Maryland (Formerly Democrat) – Likely Democrat seat
- Missouri (Retiring Republican) – Possible Republican seat
- Nevada (Formerly Democrat) – Tossup
- New Hampshire (Retiring Republican) – Likely Republican seat
- New York (Formerly Democrat) – Likely Democrat seat
- New York* (Formerly Democrat) – Likely Democrat seat
- North Carolina (Formerly Republican) – Tossup
- North Dakota (Retiring Democrat) – Likely Republican seat
- Ohio (Retiring Republican) – Likely Republican seat
- Oklahoma (Formerly Republican) – Likely Republican seat
- Oregon (Formerly Democrat) – Likely Democrat seat
- Pennsylvania (Retiring Democrat) – Tossup
- South Carolina (Formerly Republican) – Likely Republican seat
- South Dakota (Formerly Republican) – Likely Republican seat
- Utah (Retiring Republican) – Likely Republican seat
- Vermont (Formerly Democrat) – Likely Democrat seat
- Washington (Formerly Democrat) – Possible Democrat seat
- West Virginia (Retiring Democrat) – Tossup
- Wisconsin (Formerly Democrat) – Possible Republican seat
*New York has both Senate seats up for Election in 2010
Remember that the last time most of these people faced election was the 2004 Presidential Elections, which saw a slight swing to the Republicans. 2010 promises bigger Republican support, however, so it would not be surprising to see North Carolina return to the Republicans with several formerly Democratic Tossups. However, with 40 Democrat seats carrying over and only 23 republicans, the Democrats have a distinct advantage in known seats – a lead of 17.
If the Likely seats fall as predicted, this will reduce the Democrats’ lead to 6, with 47 seats against the Republicans’ 41. Factoring in Possible seats as well, both sides gain 3 leaving the tally at 50 to 44 in favour of the Democrats. Allowing for the Dems to pick up a few Tossups, and expecting any likely or possible seats lost to be compensated by gains in the Tossups would give the Democrats a strong enough lead to govern the Senate until 2012.
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