Backdated - US House of Reps

Right, now for the big one! 2010 Predictions for all 435 seats of the US House of Representatives!

It's currently four-past-eight in Washington D.C., so I would guess polling is just starting. So, here is the most last-minute prediction I've ever made:

Congressional Districts will be abbreviated to a two letter code followed by a number for reasons of brevity. So AL-1 is the first Congressional District of Alabama. If there is no number then it must be a Congressional District “at-large” – which means there is only one district, and it is state wide. An example is AK – or all of Alaska. If you are not crash-hot on your US state abbreviations firstly, join the club, and secondly here’s a list: http://www.uvm.edu/~pmc/mailservices/images/states.gif

Now, to business:

SAFE REPUBLICAN SEATS

1. AL-1 (Currently Republican)
2. AL-3 (Currently Republican)
3. AL-4 (Currently Republican)
4. AL-5 (Currently Republican)
5. AL-6 (Currently Republican)
6. AK (Currently Republican)
7. AZ-1 (Currently Democrat)
8. AZ-2 (Currently Republican)
9. AZ-3 (Currently Republican)
10. AZ-6 (Currently Republican)
11. AR-2 (Currently Democrat)
12. AR-3 (Currently Republican)
13. CA-2 (Currently Republican)
14. CA-3 (Currently Republican)
15. CA-4 (Currently Republican)
16. CA-19 (Currently Republican)
17. CA-21 (Currently Republican)
18. CA-22 (Currently Republican)
19. CA-24 (Currently Republican)
20. CA-25 (Currently Republican)
21. CA-26 (Currently Republican)
22. CA-40 (Currently Republican)
23. CA-41 (Currently Republican)
24. CA-42 (Currently Republican)
25. CA-44 (Currently Republican)
26. CA-45 (Currently Republican)
27. CA-46 (Currently Republican)
28. CA-48 (Currently Republican)
29. CA-49 (Currently Republican)
30. CA-50 (Currently Republican)
31. CA-52 (Currently Republican)
32. CO-4 (Currently Democrat)
33. CO-5 (Currently Republican)
34. CO-6 (Currently Republican)
35. FL-1 (Currently Republican)
36. FL-2 (Currently Democrat)
37. FL-4 (Currently Republican)
38. FL-5 (Currently Republican)
39. FL-6 (Currently Republican)
40. FL-7 (Currently Republican)
41. FL-8 (Currently Democrat)
42. FL-9 (Currently Republican)
43. FL-10 (Currently Republican)
44. FL-12 (Currently Republican)
45. FL-13 (Currently Republican)
46. FL-14 (Currently Republican)
47. FL-15 (Currently Republican)
48. FL-16 (Currently Republican)
49. FL-18 (Currently Republican)
50. FL-21 (Currently Republican)
51. FL-24 (Currently Democrat)
52. FL-25 (Currently Republican)
53. GA-1 (Currently Republican)
54. GA-3 (Currently Republican)
55. GA-6 (Currently Republican)
56. GA-7 (Currently Republican)
57. GA-9 (Currently Republican)
58. GA-10 (Currently Republican)
59. GA-11 (Currently Republican)
60. ID-2 (Currently Republican)
61. IL-6 (Currently Republican)
62. IL-11 (Currently Democrat)
63. IL-13 (Currently Republican)
64. IL-15 (Currently Republican)
65. IL-16 (Currently Republican)
66. IL-18 (Currently Republican)
67. IL-19 (Currently Republican)
68. IN-3 (Currently Republican)
69. IN-4 (Currently Republican)
70. IN-5 (Currently Republican)
71. IN-6 (Currently Republican)
72. IN-8 (Currently Democrat)
73. IA-4 (Currently Republican)
74. IA-5 (Currently Republican)
75. KS-1 (Currently Republican)
76. KS-2 (Currently Republican)
77. KS-3 (Currently Democrat)
78. KS-4 (Currently Republican)
79. KY-1 (Currently Republican)
80. KY-2 (Currently Republican)
81. KY-4 (Currently Republican)
82. KY-5 (Currently Republican)
83. LA-1 (Currently Republican)
84. LA-3 (Currently Democrat)
85. LA-4 (Currently Republican)
86. LA-5 (Currently Republican)
87. LA-6 (Currently Republican)
88. LA-7 (Currently Republican)
89. MD-6 (Currently Republican)
90. MI-1 (Currently Democrat)
91. MI-2 (Currently Republican)
92. MI-3 (Currently Republican)
93. MI-4 (Currently Republican)
94. MI-6 (Currently Republican)
95. MI-8 (Currently Republican)
96. MI-10 (Currently Republican)
97. MI-11 (Currently Republican)
98. MN-2 (Currently Republican)
99. MN-3 (Currently Republican)
100. MN-6 (Currently Republican)
101. MS-3 (Currently Republican)
102. MO-2 (Currently Republican)
103. MO-6 (Currently Republican)
104. MO-7 (Currently Republican)
105. MO-8 (Currently Republican)
106. MO-9 (Currently Republican)
107. MT (Currently Republican)
108. NE-1 (Currently Republican)
109. NE-2 (Currently Republican)
110. NE-3 (Currently Republican)
111. NV-2 (Currently Republican)
112. NH-1 (Currently Democrat)
113. NJ-2 (Currently Republican)
114. NJ-4 (Currently Republican)
115. NJ-5 (Currently Republican)
116. NJ-7 (Currently Republican)
117. NJ-11 (Currently Republican)
118. NY-3 (Currently Republican)
119. NY-26 (Currently Republican)
120. NY-29 (Currently Democrat)
121. NC-3 (Currently Republican)
122. NC-5 (Currently Republican)
123. NC-6 (Currently Republican)
124. NC-9 (Currently Republican)
125. NC-10 (Currently Republican)
126. OH-1 (Currently Democrat)
127. OH-2 (Currently Republican)
128. OH-3 (Currently Republican)
129. OH-4 (Currently Republican)
130. OH-5 (Currently Republican)
131. OH-7 (Currently Republican)
132. OH-8 (Currently Republican)
133. OH-12 (Currently Republican)
134. OH-14 (Currently Republican)
135. OH-15 (Currently Democrat)
136. OK-1 (Currently Republican)
137. OK-3 (Currently Republican)
138. OK-4 (Currently Republican)
139. OK-5 (Currently Republican)
140. OR-2 (Currently Republican)
141. PA-3 (Currently Democrat)
142. PA-5 (Currently Republican)
143. PA-6 (Currently Republican)
144. PA-9 (Currently Republican)
145. PA-15 (Currently Republican)
146. PA-16 (Currently Republican)
147. PA-18 (Currently Republican)
148. PA-19 (Currently Republican)
149. SC-1 (Currently Republican)
150. SC-2 (Currently Republican)
151. SC-3 (Currently Republican)
152. SC-4 (Currently Republican)
153. TN-1 (Currently Republican)
154. TN-2 (Currently Republican)
155. TN-3 (Currently Republican)
156. TN-6 (Currently Democrat)
157. TN-7 (Currently Republican)
158. TN-8 (Currently Democrat)
159. TX-1 (Currently Republican)
160. TX-2 (Currently Republican)
161. TX-3 (Currently Republican)
162. TX-4 (Currently Republican)
163. TX-5 (Currently Republican)
164. TX-6 (Currently Republican)
165. TX-7 (Currently Republican)
166. TX-8 (Currently Republican)
167. TX-10 (Currently Republican)
168. TX-11 (Currently Republican)
169. TX-12 (Currently Republican)
170. TX-13 (Currently Republican)
171. TX-14 (Currently Republican)
172. TX-17 (Currently Democrat)
173. TX-19 (Currently Republican)
174. TX-21 (Currently Republican)
175. TX-22 (Currently Republican)
176. TX-24 (Currently Republican)
177. TX-26 (Currently Republican)
178. TX-31 (Currently Republican)
179. TX-32 (Currently Republican)
180. UT-1 (Currently Republican)
181. UT-3 (Currently Republican)
182. VA-1 (Currently Republican)
183. VA-4 (Currently Republican)
184. VA-6 (Currently Republican)
185. VA-7 (Currently Republican)
186. VA-10 (Currently Republican)
187. WA-4 (Currently Republican)
188. WA-5 (Currently Republican)
189. WA-8 (Currently Republican)
190. WV-2 (Currently Republican)
191. WI-1 (Currently Republican)
192. WI-5 (Currently Republican)
193. WI-6 (Currently Republican)
194. WI-8 (Currently Democrat)
195. WY (Currently Republican)

LIKELY REPUBLICAN SEATS

1. AZ-5 (Currently Democrat)
2. AR-1 (Currently Democrat)
3. CA-10 (Currently Democrat)
4. CO-3 (Currently Democrat)
5. IL-14 (Currently Democrat)
6. IL-17 (Currently Democrat)
7. IN-9 (Currently Democrat)
8. MD-1 (Currently Democrat)
9. MS-1 (Currently Democrat)
10. NV-3 (Currently Democrat)
11. NM-2 (Currently Democrat)
12. NY-19 (Currently Democrat)
13. NY-20 (Currently Democrat)
14. NY-23 (Currently Democrat)
15. ND (Currently Democrat)
16. OH-16 (Currently Democrat)
17. OH-18 (Currently Democrat)
18. PA-7 (Currently Democrat)
19. PA-8 (Currently Democrat)
20. PA-10 (Currently Democrat)
21. PA-11 (Currently Democrat)
22. SC-5 (Currently Democrat)
23. SD (Currently Democrat)
24. TN-4 (Currently Democrat)
25. TX-23 (Currently Democrat)
26. VA-2 (Currently Democrat)
27. VA-5 (Currently Democrat)
28. WA-3 (Currently Democrat)
29. WI-7 (Currently Democrat)

SAFE DEMOCRAT SEATS

1. AL-7 (Currently Democrat)
2. AZ-4 (Currently Democrat)
3. AR-4 (Currently Democrat)
4. CA-1 (Currently Democrat)
5. CA-5 (Currently Democrat)
6. CA-6 (Currently Democrat)
7. CA-7 (Currently Democrat)
8. CA-8 (Currently Democrat)
9. CA-9 (Currently Democrat)
10. CA-12 (Currently Democrat)
11. CA-13 (Currently Democrat)
12. CA-14 (Currently Democrat)
13. CA-15 (Currently Democrat)
14. CA-16 (Currently Democrat)
15. CA-17 (Currently Democrat)
16. CA-18 (Currently Democrat)
17. CA-20 (Currently Democrat)
18. CA-23 (Currently Democrat)
19. CA-27 (Currently Democrat)
20. CA-28 (Currently Democrat)
21. CA-29 (Currently Democrat)
22. CA-30 (Currently Democrat)
23. CA-31 (Currently Democrat)
24. CA-32 (Currently Democrat)
25. CA-33 (Currently Democrat)
26. CA-34 (Currently Democrat)
27. CA-35 (Currently Democrat)
28. CA-36 (Currently Democrat)
29. CA-37 (Currently Democrat)
30. CA-38 (Currently Democrat)
31. CA-39 (Currently Democrat)
32. CA-43 (Currently Democrat)
33. CA-47 (Currently Democrat)
34. CA-51 (Currently Democrat)
35. CA-53 (Currently Democrat)
36. CO-1 (Currently Democrat)
37. CO-2 (Currently Democrat)
38. CO-7 (Currently Democrat)
39. CT-1 (Currently Democrat)
40. CT-2 (Currently Democrat)
41. CT-3 (Currently Democrat)
42. CT-4 (Currently Democrat)
43. CT-5 (Currently Democrat)
44. DE (Currently Republican)
45. FL-3 (Currently Democrat)
46. FL-11 (Currently Democrat)
47. FL-17 (Currently Democrat)
48. FL-19 (Currently Democrat)
49. FL-20 (Currently Democrat)
50. FL-23 (Currently Democrat)
51. GA-2 (Currently Democrat)
52. GA-4 (Currently Democrat)
53. GA-5 (Currently Democrat)
54. GA-8 (Currently Democrat)
55. GA-13 (Currently Democrat)
56. HI-2 (Currently Democrat)
57. IL-1 (Currently Democrat)
58. IL-2 (Currently Democrat)
59. IL-3 (Currently Democrat)
60. IL-4 (Currently Democrat)
61. IL-5 (Currently Democrat)
62. IL-7 (Currently Democrat)
63. IL-8 (Currently Democrat)
64. IL-9 (Currently Democrat)
65. IL-12 (Currently Democrat)
66. IN-1 (Currently Democrat)
67. IN-7 (Currently Democrat)
68. IA-1 (Currently Democrat)
69. IA-2 (Currently Democrat)
70. IA-3 (Currently Democrat)
71. KY-3 (Currently Democrat)
72. LA-2 (Currently Republican)
73. ME-1 (Currently Democrat)
74. ME-2 (Currently Democrat)
75. MD-2 (Currently Democrat)
76. MD-3 (Currently Democrat)
77. MD-4 (Currently Democrat)
78. MD-5 (Currently Democrat)
79. MD-7 (Currently Democrat)
80. MD-8 (Currently Democrat)
81. MA-1 (Currently Democrat)
82. MA-2 (Currently Democrat)
83. MA-2 (Currently Democrat)
84. MA-4 (Currently Democrat)
85. MA-5 (Currently Democrat)
86. MA-6 (Currently Democrat)
87. MA-7 (Currently Democrat)
88. MA-8 (Currently Democrat)
89. MA-9 (Currently Democrat)
90. MI-5 (Currently Democrat)
91. MI-9 (Currently Democrat)
92. MI-12 (Currently Democrat)
93. MI-13 (Currently Democrat)
94. MI-14 (Currently Democrat)
95. MI-15 (Currently Democrat)
96. MN-1 (Currently Democrat)
97. MN-4 (Currently Democrat)
98. MN-5 (Currently Democrat)
99. MN-7 (Currently Democrat)
100. MN-8 (Currently Democrat)
101. MS-2 (Currently Democrat)
102. MO-1 (Currently Democrat)
103. MO-3 (Currently Democrat)
104. MO-5 (Currently Democrat)
105. NV-1 (Currently Democrat)
106. NJ-1 (Currently Democrat)
107. NJ-6 (Currently Democrat)
108. NJ-8 (Currently Democrat)
109. NJ-9 (Currently Democrat)
110. NJ-10 (Currently Democrat)
111. NJ-12 (Currently Democrat)
112. NJ-13 (Currently Democrat)
113. NM-3 (Currently Democrat)
114. NY-2 (Currently Democrat)
115. NY-4 (Currently Democrat)
116. NY-5 (Currently Democrat)
117. NY-6 (Currently Democrat)
118. NY-7 (Currently Democrat)
119. NY-8 (Currently Democrat)
120. NY-9 (Currently Democrat)
121. NY-10 (Currently Democrat)
122. NY-11 (Currently Democrat)
123. NY-12 (Currently Democrat)
124. NY-13 (Currently Democrat)
125. NY-14 (Currently Democrat)
126. NY-15 (Currently Democrat)
127. NY-16 (Currently Democrat)
128. NY-17 (Currently Democrat)
129. NY-18 (Currently Democrat)
130. NY-21 (Currently Democrat)
131. NY-22 (Currently Democrat)
132. NY-25 (Currently Democrat)
133. NY-27 (Currently Democrat)
134. NY-28 (Currently Democrat)
135. NC-1 (Currently Democrat)
136. NC-4 (Currently Democrat)
137. NC-7 (Currently Democrat)
138. NC-11 (Currently Democrat)
139. NC-12 (Currently Democrat)
140. NC-13 (Currently Democrat)
141. OH-9 (Currently Democrat)
142. OH-10 (Currently Democrat)
143. OH-11 (Currently Democrat)
144. OH-13 (Currently Democrat)
145. OH-17 (Currently Democrat)
146. OK-2 (Currently Democrat)
147. OR-1 (Currently Democrat)
148. OR-3 (Currently Democrat)
149. OR-4 (Currently Democrat)
150. PA-1 (Currently Democrat)
151. PA-2 (Currently Democrat)
152. PA-4 (Currently Democrat)
153. PA-13 (Currently Democrat)
154. PA-14 (Currently Democrat)
155. PA-17 (Currently Democrat)
156. RI-1 (Currently Democrat)
157. RI-2 (Currently Democrat)
158. SC-6 (Currently Democrat)
159. TN-5 (Currently Democrat)
160. TN-9 (Currently Democrat)
161. TX-9 (Currently Democrat)
162. TX-15 (Currently Democrat)
163. TX-16 (Currently Democrat)
164. TX-18 (Currently Democrat)
165. TX-20 (Currently Democrat)
166. TX-25 (Currently Democrat)
167. TX-27 (Currently Democrat)
168. TX-28 (Currently Democrat)
169. TX-29 (Currently Democrat)
170. TX-30 (Currently Democrat)
171. UT-2 (Currently Democrat)
172. VT (Currently Democrat)
173. VA-3 (Currently Democrat)
174. VA-8 (Currently Democrat)
175. WA-1 (Currently Democrat)
176. WA-6 (Currently Democrat)
177. WA-7 (Currently Democrat)
178. WA-9 (Currently Democrat)
179. WV-3 (Currently Democrat)
180. WI-2 (Currently Democrat)
181. WI-3 (Currently Democrat)
182. WI-4 (Currently Democrat)

LIKELY DEMOCRAT SEATS

1. AZ-7 (Currently Democrat)
2. AZ-8 (Currently Democrat)
3. Ca-11 (Currently Democrat)
4. IL-10 (Currently Republican)
5. IN-2 (Currently Democrat)
6. KY-6 (Currently Democrat)
7. NM-1 (Currently Democrat)
8. NY-1 (Currently Democrat)
9. NC-2 (Currently Democrat)
10. PA-12 (Currently Democrat)
11. VA-9 (Currently Democrat)
12. VA-11 (Currently Democrat)
13. WA-2 (Currently Democrat)

TOSSUPS

1. AL-2 (Currently Democrat)
2. FL-22 (Currently Democrat)
3. GA-12 (Currently Democrat)
4. HI-1 (Currently Republican)
5. ID-1 (Currently Democrat)
6. MA-10 (Currently Democrat)
7. MI-7 (Currently Democrat)
8. MS-4 (Currently Democrat)
9. MO-4 (Currently Democrat)
10. NH-2 (Currently Democrat)
11. NJ-3 (Currently Democrat)
12. NY-24 (Currently Democrat)
13. NC-8 (Currently Democrat)
14. OH-6 (Currently Democrat)
15. OR-5 (Currently Democrat)
16. WV-1 (Currently Democrat)

In this list the Democratic Party has 195 seats listed as “Safe” or “Likely”, whilst the Republicans have 195 “Safe” seats; in other words if the Democrats won all their “Safe” and “Likely” seats, it would be negated by the Republicans winning all of their “Safe” seats – which by definition should not be too hard. Of those 195 “Safe” Republican seats, twenty have been taken from the Democratic Party. All twenty-nine “Likely” Republican seats have also been taken from Democrat Congressmen and Congresswomen, making a total of 49 seats of the Republicans' 224 victories over the incumbents.

On the other hand, of the 182 “Safe” Democrat seats, only two were previously Republican, and of the 13 “Likely”s, only one. This gives the Democrats back only 3 of the lost 49 seats, and thus an expected 46-seat swing (or just over 10%, the limit on traditional Australian swing charts) to the Republican Party – and that is before including the 16 Tossups. Only one Tossup was formerly Republican-owned (this was Hawaii's 1st Congressional District), which means the swing is only going to increase as some of them fall to the conservatives.

In addition to the above seats, there are five delegate seats also up for election. All are currently Democrat owned, and tipped as Democrat wins. Washington D.C. and American Samoa are both tipped by me as "Safe" Democrat seats, while Guam, Northern Mariana Islands and the U.S. Virgin Islands are considered "Likely" Democrat wins.

Not counting these non-voting seats, or the non-voting Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, this gives a tally of 195 Democrat seats, 224 Republican seats and 16 Tossups. Even if the Democrats won all the Tossups to reach 211 seats, they would need a miracle to gain a majority. Far more likely is a Republican-led House of Representatives with a lead of about 30 seats.