District Run-Down (3 of 6) - Victoria

Now we flick across the country to Victoria, as I provide my opinion of the baseline nature of each seat. It resembles how the seats might fall in a 50-50 split of the primary vote -- which is far closer to recent polling now that we have a new PM.

      June 15th: South Australia (X)
      June 22nd: Western Australia (X)
June 29th: Victoria
July 6th: Queensland 
July 13th: New South Wales
July 20th: Tasmania, Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory

And so:

Victoria:

The Quaternary sector, including finance and insurance, is the most profitable in the state, although the largest employer is the troubled secondary (manufacturing) sector. Victoria also has a high unemployment rate. (source). The state government, as with most states, is bicameral and based on the Westminster system.

The lower house (Legeslative Assembly) is currently held by the Coalition, with 34 Liberal MPs and 10 Nationals, just outnumbering the 43 ALP members. There is one Independent as of March this year, when Geoff Shaw resigned from the Liberal Party. The seats of the upper house (Legislative Council) are held by 18 Liberal councillors, 16 Labor councillors and three each from the Nationals and the Greens.

The state contains 37 federal electoral districts, and as a state elects 6 Senators to the Federal Parliament.

How to Read These Summaries:

Incumbent: Incumbent lists the current member for the seat and their current party.

Incumbent/Party Run: Incumbent run provides the number of elections won by the current member, and the years of those elections in parentheses. By-elections are ignored.

A second line may be present and indicate the number of elections won by the current member's party, if this is different to the number won by the current member. Again the years of those elections in parentheses, and again by-elections are ignored.

2010 Margin (TPP): This is the margin by which the seat was won after the last redistribution of preferences in the 2010 federal election, and who this margin was against.

Electoral History: A list of previous incumbent parties from the foundation of the seat to the present.

Longest Electoral Run: The most elections won in a row in this seat by one party, with the years of those elections in parentheses and the party which won the seat in those elections.

State Divisions: The state seats within this federal seat. The seat names are coloured according to their current incumbent (blue for Liberal, red for ALP, dark yellow for Nationals and grey for Independents). The last state election was in 2010.

Assessment: An assessment of the seats political history - that is, whether the seat is traditionally of one party or another. This is only approximated from the data here, does not constitute a prediction and may differ from the current incumbent's party.

Aston:

Incumbent: Alan Tudge (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Elections won (2010 - Present)
8 Elections won (1990 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 1.76% against ALP

Electoral History: 1984–1990: ALP
1990–present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run:  8 Elections won (1990 - Present)  - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Bayswater, part of Ferntree Gully, part of Forest Hill, part of Mitcham and part of Scoresby.

Assessment: Stable safe LIB

Ballarat:

Incumbent: Catherine King (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 4 Elections won (2001 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 11.70% against LIB

Electoral History: 1901–1909: Protectionist Party
1909–1913: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1913–1919: ALP
1919–1920: Nationalist Party
1920–1931: ALP
1931–1937: United Australia Party
1937–1949: ALP
1949–1951: LIB
1951–1955: ALP
1955–1980: LIB
1980–1990: ALP
1990–2001: LIB
2001–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  10 Elections won (1955 - 1980) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Ballarat West, part of Ballarat East, part of Melton and part of Ripon.

Assessment: Variable, safe ALP

Batman:

Incumbent: Martin Ferguson (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 6 Elections won (1996 - Present)
17 Elections won (1969 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 7.86% against GRN

Electoral History: 1906–1909: Protectionist Party
1909–1910: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1910–1931: ALP
1931–1934: United Australia Party
1934–1966: ALP
1966–1969: IND
1969–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  17 Elections won (1969 - present) - ALP
Including former Labor turned Independent Sam Benson (1966-1969) 30 Elections won (1934 - present) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Bundoora, part of Northcote, Preston and part of Thomastown

Assessment: Stable, very safe ALP

Bendigo:

Incumbent: Steve Gibbons (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 4 Elections won (2001 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 5.93% against LIB

Electoral History: 1901–1906: Protectionist Party
1906–1909: IND Protectionist Party**
1909–1913: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1913–1917: ALP
1917–1929: Nationalist Party
1929–1931: ALP
1931–1937: United Australia Party
1937–1949: Country Party
1949–1972: ALP
1972–1983: LIB
1983–1990: ALP
1990–1998: LIB
1998–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  9 Elections won (1949–1972) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Ballarat East, part of Bendigo East, part of Bendigo West, part of Macedon, part of Ripon and part of Rodney.

Assessment: Variable, leaning ALP

Bruce:

Incumbent: Alan Griffin (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 5 Elections won (1996 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 8.12% against LIB

Electoral History: 1955–1996: LIB
1996–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  16 Elections won (1955–1996) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Clayton, part of Dandenong, part of Forest Hill, part of Mount Waverly, Mulgrave and part of Scoresby.

Assessment: Variable, leaning ALP

Calwell:

Incumbent: Maria Vamvakinou (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 4 Elections won (2001 - Present)
10 Elections won (1984- Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 19.72% against LIB

Electoral History: 1984–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run: 10 Elections won (1984- Present) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Broadmeadows, part of Macedon and Yuroke.

Assessment: Stable, very safe ALP

Casey:

Incumbent: Tony Smith (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 4 Elections won (2001 - Present)
10 Elections won (1984 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 1.48% against ALP

Electoral History: 1969–1972: LIB
1972–1975: ALP
1975–1983: LIB
1983–1984: ALP
1984–present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run:  10 Elections won (1984 - Present)  - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Evelyn, part of Gembrook, part of Kilsyth, part of Monbulk and part of Warrandyte.

Assessment: Stable, leaning LIB

Chisholm:

Incumbent: Anna Burke (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 5 Elections won (1998 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 6.11% against LIB

Electoral History: 1949–1983: LIB
1983–1987: ALP
1987–1998: LIB
1998–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  14 Elections won (1949 - 1983) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Box Hill, part of Burwood, part of Clayton, part of Mount Waverley and part of Oakleigh.

Assessment: Variable, leaning ALP

Corangamite:

Incumbent: Darren Cheeseman (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 2 Elections won (2007 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 0.41% against LIB

Electoral History: 1901–1903: Protectionist Party
1903–1906: Free Trade Party
1906-1909: Anti-Socialist Party
1909–1910: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1910–1913: ALP
1913–1917: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1917–1918: Nationalist Party
1918–1929: Country Party
1929–1931: ALP
1931–1934: Country Party
1934–1944: United Australia Party
1944–2007: LIB
2007–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  24 Elections won (1944 - 2007) - LIB
Including the preceding UAP, 28 Elections won (1934 - 2007) - UAP/LIB

State Divisions: Part of Ballarat East, part of Bellarine, part of Geelong, part of Polwarth, part of Rippon and South Barwon,.

Assessment: Stable, leaning LIB (a controversial rating, perhaps, given the pro-labor demographic of its state divisions, but it has been conservative since the 30s excluding the 2007 Rudd landslide and the last election, held by less than half of one percent of the votes. I believe this is a reliable LIB win, and that we are at the end of a small, pro-ALP statistical blip that will correct sooner rather than later.)

Corio:

Incumbent: Richard Marles (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 2 Elections won (2007 - Present)
17 Elections won (1967 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 14.22% against LIB

Electoral History: 1901–1909: Protectionist Party
1909–1910: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1910–1913: ALP
1913–1914: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1914–1917: ALP
1917–1929: Nationalist Party
1929–1931: ALP
1931–1940: United Australia Party
1940–1949: ALP
1949–1967: LIB
1967–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  X Elections won 17 Elections won (1967 - Present) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Bellarine, part of Geelong and part of Lara.

Assessment: Stable very safe ALP

Deakin:

Incumbent: Mike Symon (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 2 Elections won (2007 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 2.41% against LIB

Electoral History: 1937–1944: United Australia Party
1944–1983: LIB
1983–1984: ALP
1984–2007: LIB
2007–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run: 15 Elections won (1944 - 1983) - LIB
Including the preceding United Australia Party, 18 Elections won (1937 - 1983) - LIB/UAP

State Divisions: Part of Bayswater, part of Forest Hill, part of Kilsyth, part of Mitcham and part of Warrandyte.

Assessment: Stable, very safe LIB (despite low TPP lead)

Dunkley:

Incumbent: Bruce Billson (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 6 Elections won (1996 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 1.02% against ALP

Electoral History: 1984–1990: ALP
1990–1993: LIB
1993–1996: ALP
1996–present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run:  6 Elections won (1996 - Present) - LIB/ALP

State Divisions: Parts of Carrum, part of Cranbourne, Frankston***, part of Hastings and part of Mornington.

Assessment: Variable, leaning LIB

Flinders:

Incumbent: Greg Hunt (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 4 Elections won (2001 - Present)
10 Elections won (1984 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 9.11% against ALP

Electoral History: 1901–1906: Free Trade Party
1906–1909: Anti-Socialist Party
1909–1917: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1917–1929: Nationalist Party
1929–1931: ALP
1931–1944: United Australia Party
1944–1952: LIB
1952–1954: ALP
1954–1983: LIB
1983–1984: ALP
1984–present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run:  12 Elections won (1954–1983) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Bass, part of Hastings, part of Mornington and Nepean.

Assessment: Stable, safe LIB

Gellibrand:

Incumbent: Nicola Roxin (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 5 Elections won (1998 - Present)
25 Elections won (1949 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 23.90% against LIB

Electoral History: 1949-present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  25 Elections won (1949 - Present) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Altona, part of Footscray and Williamstown.

Assessment: Stable, very safe ALP

Gippsland:

Incumbent: Darren Chester (NAT)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Elections won (2010 - Present)
11 Elections won (1982 - Present)
Including the preceding Country Party and National Country Party, 35 Elections won (1922 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 1.45% against ALP

Electoral History: 1901–1904: Protectionist Party
1904–1906: Anti-Socialist Party
1906–1909: Protectionist Party
1909–1913: IND
1913–1914: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1914–1917: IND
1917–1922: Nationalist Party
1922–1975: Country Party
1975–1982: National Country Party
1982–present: NAT:

Longest Electoral Run:  11 Elections won (1982 - Present) - NAT
Including the preceding Country Party and National Country Party, 35 Elections won (1922 - Present) - NAT/National Country Party/Country Party

State Divisions: Gippsland East, part of Gippsland South and part of Morwell.

Assessment: Stable, very safe NAT (despite low TPP lead)

Goldstein:

Incumbent: Andrew Robb (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 3 Elections won (2004 - Present)
10 Elections won (1984 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 6.47% against ALP

Electoral History: 1984-present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run:  10 Elections won (1984 - Present) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Bentleigh, part of Brighton, part of Caulfield, part of Oakleigh and part of Sandringham.

Assessment: Stable, very safe LIB

Gorton:

Incumbent: Brendan O'Connor (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 3 Elections won (2004 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 22.16% against LIB

Electoral History: 2004-present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  3 Elections won (2004 - 2004) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Derrimut, Keilor, part of Kororoit and part of Niddrie.

Assessment: Very safe ALP (insufficient data to determine stability)

Higgins:

Incumbent: Kelly O'Dwyer (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Elections won (2010 - Present)
25 Elections won (1949 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 6.75% against ALP

Electoral History: 1949-present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run:  25 Elections won (1949 - Present) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Burwood, part of Hawthorn, Malvern, part of Oakleigh and part of Prahran.

Assessment: Stable, very safe LIB

Holt:

Incumbent: Anthony Byrne (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 4 Elections won (2001 - Present)
12 Elections won (1980 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 13.23% against LIB

Electoral History: 1969–1972: LIB
1972–1975: ALP
1975–1980: LIB
1980-present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  12 Elections won (1980 - Present) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Cranbourne, part of Dandenong, part of Lyndhurst, part of Narre Warren North and part of Narre Warren South.

Assessment: Stable, very safe ALP

Hotham:

Incumbent: Simon Crean (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 8 Elections won (1990 - Present)
12 Elections won (1980 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 13.50% against LIB

Electoral History: 1969–1980: LIB
1980–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  12 Elections won (1980 - Present) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Bentleigh, part of Brighton, part of Clayton, part of Lyndhurst, part of Mordialloc, part of Oakleigh and part of Sandringham.

Assessment: Stable, safe ALP

Indi:

Incumbent: Sophie Mirabella (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: X Elections won (2001 - Present)
13 Elections won (1977 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 9.94% against ALP

Electoral History: 1901–1906: Protectionist Party
1904–1909: Anti-Socialist Party 
1909–1910: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1910–1913: ALP
1913–1914: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1914–1917: ALP
1917–1919: Nationalist Party
1919–1928: Country Party
1928–1931: ALP
1931–1937: United Australia Party
1937–1949: Country Party
1949–1958: LIB
1958–1975: Country Party
1975–1977: National Country Party
1977–present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run:  13 Elections won (1977 - Present) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Benalla, Benambra and part of Murray Valley.

Assessment: Stable, very safe LIB

Isaacs:

Incumbent: Mark Dreyfus (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 2 Elections won (2007 - Present)
6 Elections won (1996 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 11.02% against LIB

Electoral History: 1969–1974: LIB
1974–1975: ALP
1975–1980: LIB
1980–1990: ALP
1990–1996: LIB
1996–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  6 Elections won (1996 - Present) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Carrum, part of Cranbourne, part of Dandenong, part of Lyndhurst, part of Mordialloc and part of Sandringham.

Assessment: Variable, safe ALP

Jagajaga:

Incumbent: Jenny Macklin (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 6 Elections won (1996 - Present)
10 Elections won (1984 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 11.52% against LIB

Electoral History: 1984-present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  10 Elections won (1984 - Present) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Bundoora, part of Eltham, part of Ivanhoe and part of Yan Yean.

Assessment: Stable, very safe ALP

Kooyong:

Incumbent: Josh Frydenberg (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)
26 Elections won (1946 - Present)
Including preceding parties, 34 Elections won (1901 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 7.55% against ALP

Electoral History: 1901–1906: Free Trade Party
1906-1909: Anti-Socialist
1909–1917: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1917–1922: Nationalist Party
1922–1925: Liberal Union
1925–1931: Nationalist Party
1931–1944: Unived Australia Party
1944–present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run: 
26 Elections won (1946 - Present) - LIB
Including preceding parties, 34 Elections won (1901 - Present) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Box Hill, part of Burwood, part of Hawthorn and Kew.

Assessment: Stable, very safe LIB

Lalor:

Incumbent: Julia Gillard (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 5 Elections won (1998 - Present)
17 Elections won (1969 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 22.15% against LIB

Electoral History: 1949-1966: ALP
1966-1969: LIB
1969-present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run: 17 Elections won (1969 - Present) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Altona, part of Lara, part of Melton and Tarneit.

Assessment: Stable, very safe ALP

La Trobe:

Incumbent: Laura Smyth (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Elections won (2010 - Present)
2010 Margin (TPP): 0.91% against LIB

Electoral History: 1949–1972: LIB
1972–1975: ALP
1975–1980: LIB
1980–1990: ALP
1990–2010: LIB
2010–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  9 Elections won (1949 - 1972) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Bass, part of Bayswater, part of Ferntree Gully, part of Gembrook, part of Monbulk, part of Narre Warren North and part of Narre Warren South.

Assessment: Volatile, tossup

McEwen:

Incumbent: Rob Mitchell (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Elections won (2010 - Present)
2010 Margin (TPP): 5.32% against LIB

Electoral History: 1984–1990: ALP
1990–1993: LIB
1993–1996: ALP
1996–2010: LIB
2010–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  5 Elections won (1996 - 2010) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Benalla, part of Eltham, part of Gembrook, part of Macedon, Seymour and part of Yan Yean.

Assessment: Volatile, leaning ALP

McMillan:

Incumbent: Russell Broadbent (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 3 Elections won (2004 - Present)
2010 Margin (TPP): 4.41% against ALP

Electoral History: 1949–1955: ALP
1955–1972: LIB
1972–1975: Country Party
1975–1980: LIB
1980–1990: ALP
1990–1993: LIB
1993–1996: ALP
1996–1998: LIB
1998–2004: ALP
2004–present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run:  6 Elections won (1955–1972) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Bass, part of Gembrook, part of Gippsland South, part of Morwell and Narracan.

Assessment: Variable, leaning LIB

Mallee:

Incumbent: John Forrest (NAT)

Incumbent/Party Run: 7 Elections won (1993 - Present)
11 Elections won (1983 - Present) 
Including the preceding National Country Party and Country Party 25 Elections won (1949 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 24.41% against ALP

Electoral History: 1949–1975: Country Party
1975–1982: National Country Party
1982–present: NAT

Longest Electoral Run: 11 Elections won (1982 - Present)
Including the preceeding National Country Party and Country Party 25 Elections won (1949 - Present)

State Divisions: Part of Lowan, Mildura, part of Rodney and part of Swan Hill.

Assessment: Stable, very safe NAT

Maribyrnong:

Incumbent: Bill Shorten (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 2 Elections won (2007 - Present)
17 Elections won (1969 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 16.86% against LIB

Electoral History: 1906–1909: Protectionist Party
1909–1910: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1910–1931: ALP
1931–1934: United Australia Party
1934–1955: ALP
1955–1969: LIB
1969–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  17 Elections won (1969 - Present) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Derrimut, part of Essendon, part of Footscray, part of Kororoit and part of Niddrie.

Assessment: Variable, safe ALP

Melbourne:

Incumbent: Adam Bandt (GRN)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Elections won (2010 - Present)
2010 Margin (TPP): 6.04% against ALP

Electoral History: 1901–1904: Protectionist Party
1904–2010: ALP
2010–present: GRN

Longest Electoral Run:  40 Elections won (1906 - 2010) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Brunswick, part of Essendon, Melbourne, part of Northcote and Richmond.

Assessment: Stable, very safe ALP

Melbourne Ports:

Incumbent: Michael Danby (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 5 Elections won (1998 - Present)
41 Elections won (1906 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 7.56% against LIB

Electoral History: 1901–1906: Protectionist Party
1906–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  41 Elections won (1906 - Present) - ALP

State Divisions: Albert Park, part of Brighton, part of Caulfield, part of Oakleigh and part of Prahran.

Assessment: Stable, very safe ALP

Menzies:

Incumbent: Kevin Andrews (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 7 Elections won (1993 - Present)
10 Elections won (1984 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 8.72% against ALP

Electoral History: 1984–present: LIB
Longest Electoral Run:  10 Elections won (1984 - Present) - LIB

State Divisions: Bulleen, Doncaster, part of Evelyn and part of Warrandyte

Assessment: Stable, very safe LIB

Murray:

Incumbent: Sharman Stone (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 6 Elections won (1996 - Present)
2010 Margin (TPP): 20.35% against ALP

Electoral History: 1949–1975: Country Party
1975–1982: National Country Party
1982–1996: NAT
1996–present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run: 11 Elections won (1949 - 1975) - Country Party
Including following parties, 19 Elections won (1949 - 1996) - NAT/National Country Party/Country Party

State Divisions: Part of Benalla, part of Bendigo East, part of Bendigo West, part of Murray Valley, part of Rodney, Shepparton and part of Swan Hill.

Assessment: Stable, very safe LIB

Scullin:

Incumbent: Harry Jenkins (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 6 Elections won (1996 - Present)
9 Elections won (1987 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 22.25% against LIB

Electoral History: 1986–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  9 Elections won (1987 - Present) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Bundoora, Mill Park, part of Thomastown and part of Yan Yean.

Assessment: Stable, very safe ALP

Wannon:

Incumbent: Dan Tehan (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Elections won (2010 - Present)
22 Elections won (1955 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 7.29% against ALP

Electoral History: 1901–1906: Free Trade Party
1906–1913: ALP
1913–1917: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1917–1922: Nationalist
1922–1925: ALP
1925–1929: Nationalist
1929–1931: ALP
1931–1940: United Australia Party
1940–1949: ALP
1949–1951: LIB
1951–1955: ALP
1955–present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run:  22 Elections won (1955 - Present) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Lowan, part of Polwarth, part of Ripon and South-West Coast.

Assessment: Stable, very safe LIB

Wills:

Incumbent: Kelvin Thomson (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 6 Elections won (1996 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 22.64% against LIB

Electoral History: 1949–1992: ALP
1992–1996: IND
1996–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  18 Elections won (1949 - 1990) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Broadmeadows, part of Brunswick, part of Essendon, Pascoe Vale and part of Thomastown.

Assessment: Stable, very safe ALP

* Although listed in blue as a predecessor of the modern Liberal party, it is important to note that these parties are break-away groups and originally part of the Labor Party. Thus they cannot be viewed as entirely aligned with the modern Labor or Liberal positions. The same non-equivalence is true -- though to a lesser extent -- with the other, now defunct, historical parties.

** An Independent Labor candidate (for example) is an Independent who will by and large act as, and believes in the same principles as, a Labor candidate. 
For a really good explanation of the insanity that ensues, I recommend Dr Kevin Bonham's post What is an independent liberal, which contains a gem of a discussion about endorsed unendorsed candidates and unendorsed unendorsed candidates.

*** Although now an Independent, Gary Gray won this seat as a Liberal.