The Race:
Despite a number of media outlets publicly supporting the Coalition, the general consensus seems to be that the Andrews Labor government will be comfortable returned in the lower house. We will examine this by beginning with each seat's two-party preferred ALP margin (marked negative where held by the Coalition) and reducing this by 2.8% (i.e. the swing from the 2018 2PP results to the latest poll [paywalled]).
| SEAT | PARTY | MARGIN | PREDICTION |
| Albert Park | ALP | 13.1% | 10.3% |
| Ashwood | ALP | 2.0% | -0.8% |
| Bass | ALP | -0.7% | -3.5% |
| Bayswater | ALP | -0.6% | -3.4% |
| Bellarine | ALP | 11.4% | 8.6% |
| Benambra | LIB | ||
| Bendigo East | ALP | 12.1% | 9.3% |
| Bendigo West | ALP | 18.6% | 15.8% |
| Bentleigh | ALP | 11.4% | 8.6% |
| Berwick | LIB | -1.3% | -4.1% |
| Box Hill | ALP | 3.1% | 0.3% |
| Brighton | LIB | -0.5% | -3.3% |
| Broadmeadows | ALP | 25.2% | 22.4% |
| Brunswick | GRN | ||
| Bulleen | LIB | -5.5% | -8.3% |
| Bundoora | ALP | 16.2% | 13.4% |
| Carrum | ALP | 12.0% | 9.2% |
| Caulfield | LIB | 0.0% | -2.8% |
| Clarinda | ALP | 14.9% | 12.1% |
| Cranbourne | ALP | 9.3% | 6.5% |
| Croydon | LIB | -1.0% | -3.8% |
| Dandenong | ALP | 23.1% | 20.3% |
| Eildon | LIB | -1.0% | -3.8% |
| Eltham | ALP | 8.8% | 6.0% |
| Essendon | ALP | 15.8% | 13.0% |
| Eureka | ALP | 9.6% | 6.8% |
| Euroa | NAT | -15.8% | -18.6% |
| Evelyn | LIB | -1.8% | -4.6% |
| Footscray | ALP | 27.6% | 24.8% |
| Frankston | ALP | 10.2% | 7.4% |
| Geelong | ALP | 10.3% | 7.5% |
| Gippsland East | NAT | -17.6% | -20.4% |
| Gippsland South | NAT | -14.2% | -17.0% |
| Glen Waverley | LIB | -0.9% | -3.7% |
| Greenvale | ALP | 22.0% | 19.2% |
| Hastings | LIB | 0.0% | -2.8% |
| Hawthorn | ALP | 0.6% | -2.2% |
| Ivanhoe | ALP | 12.3% | 9.5% |
| Kalkallo | ALP | 20.9% | 18.1% |
| Kew | LIB | -4.7% | -7.5% |
| Kororoit | ALP | 25.3% | 22.5% |
| Lara | ALP | 19.1% | 16.3% |
| Laverton | ALP | 23.4% | 20.6% |
| Lowan | NAT | -21.1% | -23.9% |
| Macedon | ALP | 13.4% | 10.6% |
| Malvern | LIB | -6.0% | -8.8% |
| Melbourne | GRN | ||
| Melton | ALP | 5.0% | 2.2% |
| Mildura | IND | ||
| Mill Park | ALP | 24.9% | 22.1% |
| Monbulk | ALP | 7.1% | 4.3% |
| Mordialloc | ALP | 13.4% | 10.6% |
| Mornington | LIB | -5.0% | -7.8% |
| Morwell | IND | ||
| Mulgrave | ALP | 15.8% | 13.0% |
| Murray Plains | NAT | -24.0% | -26.8% |
| Narracan | LIB | -10.0% | -12.8% |
| Narre Warren North | ALP | 10.4% | 7.6% |
| Narre Warren South | ALP | 10.4% | 7.6% |
| Nepean | ALP | 0.7% | -2.1% |
| Niddrie | ALP | 12.5% | 9.7% |
| Northcote | ALP | ||
| Oakleigh | ALP | 16.0% | 13.2% |
| Ovens Valley | NAT | -12.1% | -14.9% |
| Pakenham | LIB | 2.2% | -0.6% |
| Pascoe Vale | ALP | 22.3% | 19.5% |
| Point Cook | ALP | 12.8% | 10.0% |
| Polwarth | LIB | -2.0% | -4.8% |
| Prahran | GRN | ||
| Preston | ALP | ||
| Richmond | ALP | ||
| Ringwood | ALP | 3.2% | 0.4% |
| Ripon | LIB | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Rowville | LIB | -5.5% | -8.3% |
| Sandringham | LIB | -0.4% | -3.2% |
| Shepparton | IND | ||
| South Barwon | ALP | 3.0% | 0.2% |
| South-West Coast | LIB | -3.2% | -6.0% |
| St Albans | ALP | 22.0% | 19.2% |
| Sunbury | ALP | 14.5% | 11.7% |
| Sydenham | ALP | 18.3% | 15.5% |
| Tarneit | ALP | 17.9% | 15.1% |
| Thomastown | ALP | 27.4% | 24.6% |
| Warrandyte | LIB | -3.8% | -6.6% |
| Wendouree | ALP | 11.0% | 8.2% |
| Werribee | ALP | ||
| Williamstown | ALP | 19.9% | 17.1% |
| Yan Yean | ALP | 16.9% | 14.1% |
On these numbers alone, Daniel Andrews has the numbers to re-form majority government.
(Note 1: Narracan is marked as a Liberal retain, but due to the unfortunate death of the Nationals candidate, this vote will not be held in line with the other seats.)
(Note 2: Bass is assumed to flip to Liberal, but could flip to Nationals as both parties are running Coalition candidates. Liberals are preferred as the seat has historically been held by Liberals, not Nationals).
The Gaps:
This does not address the eleven seats where the 2PP race is not ALP v Coalition, and introduces one tossup: Ripon.
A similar approach can be applied to the five ALP v Green races, but relying on primary votes (PV) for calculating the swing: (polled ALP PV/(polled ALP PV + polled GRN PV)) - (2018 ALP PV/(2018 ALP PV + 2018 GRN PV)) = -4.0%. This assumes that all votes for other parties fall along similar lines as the ALP:GRN PV, which may not hold true at all. However, if it did the results would show:
| SEAT | PARTY | MARGIN | PREDICTION |
| Brunswick | GRN | -2.0% | -6.0% |
| Melbourne | GRN | -1.7% | -5.7% |
| Northcote | ALP | 1.7% | -2.3% |
| Preston | ALP | 21.3% | 17.3% |
| Richmond | ALP | 5.8% | 1.8% |
And calculating a -2.8% swing in primary votes LIB v Green (Liberal > 0; Grn < 0) we can also resolve Prahran:
| SEAT | PARTY | MARGIN | PREDICTION |
| Prahran | GRN | -8.2% | -10.4% |
That leaves all currently Green seats their verdant disposition, and suggest Northcote will flip. I personally doubt this on a gut level, but the system is there to give better guidance to personal whims so I'll keep this as a highly speculative call. That's this election's wild call.
Benambra has been some marine shade of conservative since 1877. That an independent with a 16% primary vote came second in this race shows how far Labor and the Greens lag here. Jacqui Hawkins is running as an independent again, but I don't see any reason to think she'll be more successful this time around.
| LIB |
Mildura was won by a margin of 253 votes after preferences in 2018, so the margin is razor thin (0.0%). General polling across the state is meaningless on a case-by-case basis, but I'll suggest that the incumbent Ali Cupper now has the benefit or name recognition and is well placed to hold on for a second term.
| IND |
Morwell's independent is retiring, so reverting to the 2PP data the seat is considered to have a 4.0% margin by Labor which allows it to stay red even after a 2.8% swing.
| ALP |
Ripon is currently held by a Liberal Louise Staley, but following redistribution is considered marginally Labor at 2.8%--the exact size of the swing against Labor bringing this down to a pure 50-50 split. I'm going to assume that the voters brought into Ripon will be a little more inclined to vote for the Coalition than in their previous seats due to the incumbency of Ms Staley, and will keep this one blue.
| LIB |
Shepparton was a NAT stronghold, but has been held by an IND since 2014. With a 5.3% margin it's not unassailable, but I'm still tipping for an IND in a seat where support for the Coalition has marginally decreased but where the ALP is not a credible chance.
| IND |
Werribee is so deeply red that the Coalition didn't even get a second place. Labor still has a comfortable 9.1% lead on last election's IND, so probably a safe bet for the Andrews Government.
| ALP |
The Conclusion:
| SEAT | PARTY | MARGIN |
| Albert Park | ALP | ALP |
| Ashwood | ALP | LIB |
| Bass | ALP | LIB |
| Bayswater | ALP | LIB |
| Bellarine | ALP | ALP |
| Benambra | LIB | LIB |
| Bendigo East | ALP | ALP |
| Bendigo West | ALP | ALP |
| Bentleigh | ALP | ALP |
| Berwick | LIB | LIB |
| Box Hill | ALP | ALP |
| Brighton | LIB | LIB |
| Broadmeadows | ALP | ALP |
| Brunswick | GRN | GRN |
| Bulleen | LIB | LIB |
| Bundoora | ALP | ALP |
| Carrum | ALP | ALP |
| Caulfield | LIB | LIB |
| Clarinda | ALP | ALP |
| Cranbourne | ALP | ALP |
| Croydon | LIB | LIB |
| Dandenong | ALP | ALP |
| Eildon | LIB | LIB |
| Eltham | ALP | ALP |
| Essendon | ALP | ALP |
| Eureka | ALP | ALP |
| Euroa | NAT | NAT |
| Evelyn | LIB | LIB |
| Footscray | ALP | ALP |
| Frankston | ALP | ALP |
| Geelong | ALP | ALP |
| Gippsland East | NAT | NAT |
| Gippsland South | NAT | NAT |
| Glen Waverley | LIB | LIB |
| Greenvale | ALP | ALP |
| Hastings | LIB | LIB |
| Hawthorn | ALP | LIB |
| Ivanhoe | ALP | ALP |
| Kalkallo | ALP | ALP |
| Kew | LIB | LIB |
| Kororoit | ALP | ALP |
| Lara | ALP | ALP |
| Laverton | ALP | ALP |
| Lowan | NAT | NAT |
| Macedon | ALP | ALP |
| Malvern | LIB | LIB |
| Melbourne | GRN | GRN |
| Melton | ALP | ALP |
| Mildura | IND | IND |
| Mill Park | ALP | ALP |
| Monbulk | ALP | ALP |
| Mordialloc | ALP | ALP |
| Mornington | LIB | LIB |
| Morwell | IND | ALP |
| Mulgrave | ALP | ALP |
| Murray Plains | NAT | NAT |
| Narracan | LIB | LIB |
| Narre Warren North | ALP | ALP |
| Narre Warren South | ALP | ALP |
| Nepean | ALP | LIB |
| Niddrie | ALP | ALP |
| Northcote | ALP | GRN |
| Oakleigh | ALP | ALP |
| Ovens Valley | NAT | NAT |
| Pakenham | LIB | LIB |
| Pascoe Vale | ALP | ALP |
| Point Cook | ALP | ALP |
| Polwarth | LIB | LIB |
| Prahran | GRN | GRN |
| Preston | ALP | ALP |
| Richmond | ALP | ALP |
| Ringwood | ALP | ALP |
| Ripon | LIB | LIB |
| Rowville | LIB | LIB |
| Sandringham | LIB | LIB |
| Shepparton | IND | IND |
| South Barwon | ALP | ALP |
| South-West Coast | LIB | LIB |
| St Albans | ALP | ALP |
| Sunbury | ALP | ALP |
| Sydenham | ALP | ALP |
| Tarneit | ALP | ALP |
| Thomastown | ALP | ALP |
| Warrandyte | LIB | LIB |
| Wendouree | ALP | ALP |
| Werribee | ALP | ALP |
| Williamstown | ALP | ALP |
| Yan Yean | ALP | ALP |
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