Victoria - The Place to Be

The Race:

Despite a number of media outlets publicly supporting the Coalition, the general consensus seems to be that the Andrews Labor government will be comfortable returned in the lower house. We will examine this by beginning with each seat's two-party preferred ALP margin (marked negative where held by the Coalition) and reducing this by 2.8% (i.e. the swing from the 2018 2PP results to the latest poll [paywalled]).

SEAT	PARTY	MARGIN	PREDICTION
Albert Park	ALP	13.1%	10.3%
Ashwood	ALP	2.0%	-0.8%
Bass	ALP	-0.7%	-3.5%
Bayswater	ALP	-0.6%	-3.4%
Bellarine	ALP	11.4%	8.6%
Benambra	LIB
Bendigo East	ALP	12.1%	9.3%
Bendigo West	ALP	18.6%	15.8%
Bentleigh	ALP	11.4%	8.6%
Berwick	LIB	-1.3%	-4.1%
Box Hill	ALP	3.1%	0.3%
Brighton	LIB	-0.5%	-3.3%
Broadmeadows	ALP	25.2%	22.4%
Brunswick	GRN
Bulleen	LIB	-5.5%	-8.3%
Bundoora	ALP	16.2%	13.4%
Carrum	ALP	12.0%	9.2%
Caulfield	LIB	0.0%	-2.8%
Clarinda	ALP	14.9%	12.1%
Cranbourne	ALP	9.3%	6.5%
Croydon	LIB	-1.0%	-3.8%
Dandenong	ALP	23.1%	20.3%
Eildon	LIB	-1.0%	-3.8%
Eltham	ALP	8.8%	6.0%
Essendon	ALP	15.8%	13.0%
Eureka	ALP	9.6%	6.8%
Euroa	NAT	-15.8%	-18.6%
Evelyn	LIB	-1.8%	-4.6%
Footscray	ALP	27.6%	24.8%
Frankston	ALP	10.2%	7.4%
Geelong	ALP	10.3%	7.5%
Gippsland East	NAT	-17.6%	-20.4%
Gippsland South	NAT	-14.2%	-17.0%
Glen Waverley	LIB	-0.9%	-3.7%
Greenvale	ALP	22.0%	19.2%
Hastings	LIB	0.0%	-2.8%
Hawthorn	ALP	0.6%	-2.2%
Ivanhoe	ALP	12.3%	9.5%
Kalkallo	ALP	20.9%	18.1%
Kew	LIB	-4.7%	-7.5%
Kororoit	ALP	25.3%	22.5%
Lara	ALP	19.1%	16.3%
Laverton	ALP	23.4%	20.6%
Lowan	NAT	-21.1%	-23.9%
Macedon	ALP	13.4%	10.6%
Malvern	LIB	-6.0%	-8.8%
Melbourne	GRN
Melton	ALP	5.0%	2.2%
Mildura	IND
Mill Park	ALP	24.9%	22.1%
Monbulk	ALP	7.1%	4.3%
Mordialloc	ALP	13.4%	10.6%
Mornington	LIB	-5.0%	-7.8%
Morwell	IND
Mulgrave	ALP	15.8%	13.0%
Murray Plains	NAT	-24.0%	-26.8%
Narracan	LIB	-10.0%	-12.8%
Narre Warren North	ALP	10.4%	7.6%
Narre Warren South	ALP	10.4%	7.6%
Nepean	ALP	0.7%	-2.1%
Niddrie	ALP	12.5%	9.7%
Northcote	ALP
Oakleigh	ALP	16.0%	13.2%
Ovens Valley	NAT	-12.1%	-14.9%
Pakenham	LIB	2.2%	-0.6%
Pascoe Vale	ALP	22.3%	19.5%
Point Cook	ALP	12.8%	10.0%
Polwarth	LIB	-2.0%	-4.8%
Prahran	GRN
Preston	ALP
Richmond	ALP
Ringwood	ALP	3.2%	0.4%
Ripon	LIB	2.8%	0.0%
Rowville	LIB	-5.5%	-8.3%
Sandringham	LIB	-0.4%	-3.2%
Shepparton	IND
South Barwon	ALP	3.0%	0.2%
South-West Coast	LIB	-3.2%	-6.0%
St Albans	ALP	22.0%	19.2%
Sunbury	ALP	14.5%	11.7%
Sydenham	ALP	18.3%	15.5%
Tarneit	ALP	17.9%	15.1%
Thomastown	ALP	27.4%	24.6%
Warrandyte	LIB	-3.8%	-6.6%
Wendouree	ALP	11.0%	8.2%
Werribee	ALP
Williamstown	ALP	19.9%	17.1%
Yan Yean	ALP	16.9%	14.1%

On these numbers alone, Daniel Andrews has the numbers to re-form majority government.

(Note 1: Narracan is marked as a Liberal retain, but due to the unfortunate death of the Nationals candidate, this vote will not be held in line with the other seats.)

(Note 2: Bass is assumed to flip to Liberal, but could flip to Nationals as both parties are running Coalition candidates. Liberals are preferred as the seat has historically been held by Liberals, not Nationals).

The Gaps:

This does not address the eleven seats where the 2PP race is not ALP v Coalition, and introduces one tossup: Ripon.

A similar approach can be applied to the five ALP v Green races, but relying on primary votes (PV) for calculating the swing: (polled ALP PV/(polled ALP PV + polled GRN PV)) - (2018 ALP PV/(2018 ALP PV + 2018 GRN PV)) = -4.0%. This assumes that all votes for other parties fall along similar lines as the ALP:GRN PV, which may not hold true at all. However, if it did the results would show:

SEAT	PARTY	MARGIN	PREDICTION
Brunswick	GRN	-2.0%	-6.0%
Melbourne	GRN	-1.7%	-5.7%
Northcote	ALP	1.7%	-2.3%
Preston	ALP	21.3%	17.3%
Richmond	ALP	5.8%	1.8%

And calculating a -2.8% swing in primary votes LIB v Green (Liberal > 0; Grn < 0) we can also resolve Prahran:

SEAT	PARTY	MARGIN	PREDICTION
Prahran	GRN	-8.2%	-10.4%

That leaves all currently Green seats their verdant disposition, and suggest Northcote will flip. I personally doubt this on a gut level, but the system is there to give better guidance to personal whims so I'll keep this as a highly speculative call. That's this election's wild call.

Benambra has been some marine shade of conservative since 1877. That an independent with a 16% primary vote came second in this race shows how far Labor and the Greens lag here. Jacqui Hawkins is running as an independent again, but I don't see any reason to think she'll be more successful this time around.

LIB

Mildura was won by a margin of 253 votes after preferences in 2018, so the margin is razor thin (0.0%). General polling across the state is meaningless on a case-by-case basis, but I'll suggest that the incumbent Ali Cupper now has the benefit or name recognition and is well placed to hold on for a second term.

IND

Morwell's independent is retiring, so reverting to the 2PP data the seat is considered to have a 4.0% margin by Labor which allows it to stay red even after a 2.8% swing.

ALP

Ripon is currently held by a Liberal Louise Staley, but following redistribution is considered marginally Labor at 2.8%--the exact size of the swing against Labor bringing this down to a pure 50-50 split. I'm going to assume that the voters brought into Ripon will be a little more inclined to vote for the Coalition than in their previous seats due to the incumbency of Ms Staley, and will keep this one blue.

LIB

Shepparton was a NAT stronghold, but has been held by an IND since 2014. With a 5.3% margin it's not unassailable, but I'm still tipping for an IND in a seat where support for the Coalition has marginally decreased but where the ALP is not a credible chance.

IND

Werribee is so deeply red that the Coalition didn't even get a second place. Labor still has a comfortable 9.1% lead on last election's IND, so probably a safe bet for the Andrews Government.

ALP

The Conclusion:

All tallies up this amounts to a prediction of 50 Labor seats, 32 Coalition seats and 6 cross-bench MPs, giving a reduced, but clear majority to the returning government. The seats to watch as most difficult to predict will be Northcote, Mildura and Ripon.

SEAT	PARTY	MARGIN
Albert Park	ALP	ALP
Ashwood	ALP	LIB
Bass	ALP	LIB
Bayswater	ALP	LIB
Bellarine	ALP	ALP
Benambra	LIB	LIB
Bendigo East	ALP	ALP
Bendigo West	ALP	ALP
Bentleigh	ALP	ALP
Berwick	LIB	LIB
Box Hill	ALP	ALP
Brighton	LIB	LIB
Broadmeadows	ALP	ALP
Brunswick	GRN	GRN
Bulleen	LIB	LIB
Bundoora	ALP	ALP
Carrum	ALP	ALP
Caulfield	LIB	LIB
Clarinda	ALP	ALP
Cranbourne	ALP	ALP
Croydon	LIB	LIB
Dandenong	ALP	ALP
Eildon	LIB	LIB
Eltham	ALP	ALP
Essendon	ALP	ALP
Eureka	ALP	ALP
Euroa	NAT	NAT
Evelyn	LIB	LIB
Footscray	ALP	ALP
Frankston	ALP	ALP
Geelong	ALP	ALP
Gippsland East	NAT	NAT
Gippsland South	NAT	NAT
Glen Waverley	LIB	LIB
Greenvale	ALP	ALP
Hastings	LIB	LIB
Hawthorn	ALP	LIB
Ivanhoe	ALP	ALP
Kalkallo	ALP	ALP
Kew	LIB	LIB
Kororoit	ALP	ALP
Lara	ALP	ALP
Laverton	ALP	ALP
Lowan	NAT	NAT
Macedon	ALP	ALP
Malvern	LIB	LIB
Melbourne	GRN	GRN
Melton	ALP	ALP
Mildura	IND	IND
Mill Park	ALP	ALP
Monbulk	ALP	ALP
Mordialloc	ALP	ALP
Mornington	LIB	LIB
Morwell	IND	ALP
Mulgrave	ALP	ALP
Murray Plains	NAT	NAT
Narracan	LIB	LIB
Narre Warren North	ALP	ALP
Narre Warren South	ALP	ALP
Nepean	ALP	LIB
Niddrie	ALP	ALP
Northcote	ALP	GRN
Oakleigh	ALP	ALP
Ovens Valley	NAT	NAT
Pakenham	LIB	LIB
Pascoe Vale	ALP	ALP
Point Cook	ALP	ALP
Polwarth	LIB	LIB
Prahran	GRN	GRN
Preston	ALP	ALP
Richmond	ALP	ALP
Ringwood	ALP	ALP
Ripon	LIB	LIB
Rowville	LIB	LIB
Sandringham	LIB	LIB
Shepparton	IND	IND
South Barwon	ALP	ALP
South-West Coast	LIB	LIB
St Albans	ALP	ALP
Sunbury	ALP	ALP
Sydenham	ALP	ALP
Tarneit	ALP	ALP
Thomastown	ALP	ALP
Warrandyte	LIB	LIB
Wendouree	ALP	ALP
Werribee	ALP	ALP
Williamstown	ALP	ALP
Yan Yean	ALP	ALP

US Midterm Medley - Senate Showdown

Finally, we turn to the US Senate which, as usual, is electing one-third of its members (in this case, the Class 3 senators) in a general election. However, what is not usual is that there are two special elections – Oklahoma’s Class 2 senator and California’s Class 3 – and because California’s Class 3 election would have occurred on November 8 regardless, this means there are two elections for California – one beginning immediately, and another for the term beginning in January. Unsurprisingly, the candidates in both California elections are the same, meaning (weirdly) there are 36 elections for 35 senators. Of course, these two races can give different results, but this would require some peculiar voting patterns across a meaningful number of voters, so we will assume that we only need to address 34 races, and we can treat California as one contest.

The remaining senators who are not up for election include 34 Democrats, 29 Republicans and 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats. This means the Democrats need 14 seats to have control with the Independents and rely on the Vice President to break ties, 15 to avoid most of those ties, 16 to not rely on Independents and 17 to not need the VP either. So anything less than 13 Democrat senators in this election is a win for the Republicans, which means taking 22 races for themselves. They come into this with 21 senate seats on the line, though, so this is a net gain of one seat.

The Races

As with the Gubernatorial elections, several sources have already made predictions, and where these all agree, there is little sense in running the same numbers they have. This gives us forecasts for 27 races, leaving Republicans just three races from claiming a majority with eight options on the board.

STATE	INCUMBENT	MEDIA PREDICTION
Alabama	Republican	Republican
Alaska	Republican	Republican
Arizona	Democrat	Mixed
Arkansas	Republican	Republican
California	Democrat	Democrat
Colorado	Democrat	Mixed
Connecticut	Democrat	Democrat
Florida	Republican	Republican
Georgia	Democrat	Mixed
Hawaii	Democrat	Democrat
Idaho	Republican	Republican
Illinois	Democrat	Democrat
Indiana	Republican	Republican
Iowa	Republican	Republican
Kansas	Republican	Republican
Kentucky	Republican	Republican
Louisiana	Republican	Republican
Maryland	Democrat	Democrat
Missouri	Republican	Republican
Nevada	Democrat	Mixed
New Hampshire	Democrat	Mixed
New York	Democrat	Democrat
North Carolina	Republican	Republican
North Dakota	Republican	Republican
Ohio	Republican	Republican
Oklahoma	Republican	Republican
Oklahoma*	Republican	Republican
Oregon	Democrat	Democrat
Pennsylvania	Republican	Mixed
South Carolina	Republican	Republican
South Dakota	Republican	Republican
Utah	Republican	Republican
Vermont	Democrat	Democrat
Washington	Democrat	Mixed
Wisconsin	Republican	Mixed

[Source]

Colorado, Washington

All sources plant these two races as Democrat wins, except for the unclear political predictions of Real Clear Politics which leave these as tossups. Both have multi-term Democrat incumbents recontesting their seats who won the last election with percentages in the high 50s. In both states, despite a narrowing lead in recent times, the Democrats have never lost a poll with the single exception of a hypothetical ‘Incumbent v generic Republican’ question in Colorado ten months ago. Therefore, it seems safe to call these for the Dems.

Democrat

New Hampshire

Similarly, New Hampshire is broadly predicted for the Dems, with only Real Clear Politics and Politico dissenting to mark it as a tossup. Again, the polling has narrowed, but the Democrats have won the majority of these by far.

Democrat

Wisconsin

Wisconsin is the last senate seat where there is a majority view among media sources. Five sources mark this as Republican, the other four as a tossup. Democrats led the polling until August, even among right-wing sources like Trafalgar and Fox, but since then, blue leads have been few and far between against the two-term Republican incumbent. The hesitancy to write this off has likely been due to strong Democrat performances in Wisconsin, including a blue sweep in 2018, but this is not translating to the polls this year. (For comparison, Democrats led every poll ahead of the 2018 senate election).

Republican

Pennsylvania

Perhaps the most publicised contest of 2022, this race pits TV’s Dr Oz against Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman. Early polling was impressive for the Democrats but has slipped to give Oz a slight lead in the polls since October 26.

Sabato has this race leaning R, which aligns with the latest polling, but I’d also be wary about relying on numbers from the last fortnight after months of contrary results. What is apparent is that the number of undecideds has (naturally) narrowed. If this indicates that undecideds tend to fall out in Oz’s favour, things will only worsen for Fetterman. I’ll call this Republican, but this is the race I most expect to get wrong.

Republican

Arizona

The Cook Partisan Voting Index marks Arizona as naturally Republican, but the incumbent is a Democrat, and four of the nine media sources are colouring this one blue. The polling was remarkable for Democrats until the withdrawal of Libertarian candidate Marc Victor, and since then has still been strong, with only three of the subsequent 13 polls favouring the Republicans. There is some division in the data aggregates, with RealClearPolitics favouring the Republican while FiveThirtyEight and 270ToWin favour the Democrat, but the raw data is convincing enough for me.

Democrat

Nevada

Nevada polling is all over the shop, but with a preference towards the Republicans. However, Sabato was the only source willing to wager a bet on Nevada, and they had it as leaning Democrat. The Cook Partisan Voting Index has this as a Republican state, but the incumbent is a Democrat. In the closest race of 2022, a couple of factors are holding the Democrats back that will likely be decisive: Republican economic issues seem to be cutting through more than the Democrats’ focus on abortion rights, and Biden is so unpopular in the state that they sent Bill Clinton in to support instead.

Republican

Georgia

Sabato and FiveThirtyEight are both predicting the GOP to win in Georgia, the only calls across the senate races to go against an incumbent. Polling supports this call with the Republican candidate ahead in all aggregations and not losing a single poll in November.

Republican

Summary

That comes to 23 Republican and 12 Democrat senators elected in 2022 for a 2023 term of 52 Republicans, 46 Democrats and two independents. In short, Republicans are predicted to control the Senate and block much of Biden’s agenda for the second half of his presidency.

STATE	INCUMBENT	MEDIA PREDICTION
Alabama	Republican	Republican
Alaska	Republican	Republican
Arizona	Democrat	Democrat
Arkansas	Republican	Republican
California	Democrat	Democrat
Colorado	Democrat	Democrat
Connecticut	Democrat	Democrat
Florida	Republican	Republican
Georgia	Democrat	Republican
Hawaii	Democrat	Democrat
Idaho	Republican	Republican
Illinois	Democrat	Democrat
Indiana	Republican	Republican
Iowa	Republican	Republican
Kansas	Republican	Republican
Kentucky	Republican	Republican
Louisiana	Republican	Republican
Maryland	Democrat	Democrat
Missouri	Republican	Republican
Nevada	Democrat	Republican
New Hampshire	Democrat	Democrat
New York	Democrat	Democrat
North Carolina	Republican	Republican
North Dakota	Republican	Republican
Ohio	Republican	Republican
Oklahoma	Republican	Republican
Oklahoma*	Republican	Republican
Oregon	Democrat	Democrat
Pennsylvania	Republican	Republican
South Carolina	Republican	Republican
South Dakota	Republican	Republican
Utah	Republican	Republican
Vermont	Democrat	Democrat
Washington	Democrat	Democrat
Wisconsin	Republican	Republican

In 2024, 23 of the 33 senate seats up for election are currently held by Democrats or the two Independents who vote with them. That leaves little room to pick up the three seats needed to regain control. Therefore, a Republican win, as predicted here, is likely to also hold for the first half of the next Presidential term—good news for a Republican president but crippling for a Democrat.