Legislative Assembly
The Pendulum
The current distribution has the Coalition on 52 seats, which is five more than the 47 they need for a majority government. Six of these seats are ranked as ‘marginal’ under the traditional definition of holding a margin of less than 6% (Coogee, East Hills, Lismore, Monaro, Tweed and Upper Hunter). Four of these six are held by Nationals. It is therefore very possible that a swing against the government, and against the Nationals in particular, could see the Coalition lose the election. NSW has a healthy crossbench at present, however, and the ALP needs to gain 13 seats for an outright majority.The following table shows the seats currently measured on a Coalition v ALP race, and the current margins. There are 75 of these traditionally 2-party seats.
SEAT | INCUMBENT | COALITION LEAD |
Albury | LIB | 13.2 |
Auburn | ALP | -5.9 |
Bankstown | ALP | -14.0 |
Barwon | NAT | 12.9 |
Bathurst | NAT | 15.8 |
Baulkham Hills | LIB | 21.8 |
Bega | LIB | 8.2 |
Blacktown | ALP | -13.2 |
Blue Mountains | ALP | -8.1 |
Cabramatta | ALP | -17.2 |
Camden | LIB | 18.3 |
Campbelltown | ALP | -7.3 |
Canterbury | ALP | -15.7 |
Castle Hill | LIB | 29.4 |
Cessnock | ALP | -22.0 |
Charlestown | ALP | -12.9 |
Clarence | NAT | 9.7 |
Coffs Harbour | NAT | 14.3 |
Coogee | LIB | 2.9 |
Cootamundra | NAT | 20.4 |
Cronulla | LIB | 20.9 |
Drummoyne | LIB | 18.8 |
Dubbo | NAT | 20.4 |
East Hills | LIB | 0.4 |
Epping | LIB | 16.2 |
Fairfield | ALP | -17.8 |
Gosford | ALP | -0.2 |
Goulburn | LIB | 6.6 |
Granville | ALP | -2.1 |
Hawkesbury | LIB | 17.8 |
Heathcote | LIB | 7.6 |
Heffron | ALP | -14.1 |
Holsworthy | LIB | 6.7 |
Hornsby | LIB | 18.9 |
Keira | ALP | -17.4 |
Kiama | LIB | 8.7 |
Kogarah | ALP | -6.9 |
Ku-ring-gai | LIB | 23.0 |
Lakemba | ALP | -21.6 |
Lane Cove | LIB | 17.8 |
Liverpool | ALP | -20.9 |
Londonderry | ALP | -8.8 |
Macquarie Fields | ALP | -8.1 |
Maitland | ALP | -13.8 |
Maroubra | ALP | -10.8 |
Miranda | LIB | 13.0 |
Monaro | NAT | 2.5 |
Mount Druitt | ALP | -15.4 |
Mulgoa | LIB | 9.7 |
Myall Lakes | NAT | 8.7 |
Newcastle | ALP | -7.4 |
Northern Tablelands | NAT | 27.1 |
Oatley | LIB | 6.6 |
Oxley | NAT | 10.9 |
Parramatta | LIB | 12.9 |
Penrith | LIB | 6.2 |
Port Macquarie | NAT | 19.0 |
Port Stephens | ALP | -4.7 |
Prospect | ALP | -3.4 |
Riverstone | LIB | 12.2 |
Rockdale | ALP | -4.8 |
Ryde | LIB | 11.5 |
Seven Hills | LIB | 8.7 |
Shellharbour | ALP | -17.0 |
South Coast | LIB | 9.6 |
Strathfield | ALP | -1.8 |
Swansea | ALP | -13.0 |
Terrigal | LIB | 9.0 |
The Entrance | ALP | -0.4 |
Tweed | NAT | 3.2 |
Upper Hunter | NAT | 2.2 |
Wakehurst | LIB | 25.2 |
Wallsend | ALP | -20.8 |
Wollondilly | LIB | 17.3 |
Wyong | ALP | -8.7 |
For the last week, there’s been a lot of buzz around the fact that the latest polling is 50:50. This is only half true. Newspoll does have the polling at 50:50 as announced on March 10. However, Reachtel has the number at a less headline-grabbing 49:51 split favouring Labor. These numbers are well within the margin of error of each other, but we will consider more than just the popularly quoted 50:50 number. In fact, since the change of Labor leadership both Newspoll polls have reported a 50:50 number, both Reachtel polls are 49:51, Essential also posted 49:51 and YouGov gave 48:52. These polls are consistent and date back to the change of leaders in November. Also, of course, a 50:50 split in the primary vote does not necessarily mean the election will be close. It depends on the distribution of those votes.
Last election, the result was 54:46, and the preceding Newspoll was 55:45. So we are looking at a general swing in the range of 4 to 7 percentage points (pp). Applied uniformly to the 75 seats above, these would predict the following:
SEAT | INCUMBENT | COALITION LEAD | 4PP SWING | 7PP SWING | PREDICTION |
Albury | LIB | 13.2 | 9.2 | 6.2 | LIB |
Auburn | ALP | -5.9 | -9.9 | -12.9 | ALP |
Bankstown | ALP | -14.0 | -18.0 | -21.0 | ALP |
Barwon | NAT | 12.9 | 8.9 | 5.9 | NAT |
Bathurst | NAT | 15.8 | 11.8 | 8.8 | NAT |
Baulkham Hills | LIB | 21.8 | 17.8 | 14.8 | LIB |
Bega | LIB | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.2 | LIB |
Blacktown | ALP | -13.2 | -17.2 | -20.2 | ALP |
Blue Mountains | ALP | -8.1 | -12.1 | -15.1 | ALP |
Cabramatta | ALP | -17.2 | -21.2 | -24.2 | ALP |
Camden | LIB | 18.3 | 14.3 | 11.3 | LIB |
Campbelltown | ALP | -7.3 | -11.3 | -14.3 | ALP |
Canterbury | ALP | -15.7 | -19.7 | -22.7 | ALP |
Castle Hill | LIB | 29.4 | 25.4 | 22.4 | LIB |
Cessnock | ALP | -22.0 | -26.0 | -29.0 | ALP |
Charlestown | ALP | -12.9 | -16.9 | -19.9 | ALP |
Clarence | NAT | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.7 | NAT |
Coffs Harbour | NAT | 14.3 | 10.3 | 7.3 | NAT |
Coogee | LIB | 2.9 | -1.1 | -4.1 | ALP |
Cootamundra | NAT | 20.4 | 16.4 | 13.4 | NAT |
Cronulla | LIB | 20.9 | 16.9 | 13.9 | LIB |
Drummoyne | LIB | 18.8 | 14.8 | 11.8 | LIB |
Dubbo | NAT | 20.4 | 16.4 | 13.4 | NAT |
East Hills | LIB | 0.4 | -3.6 | -6.6 | ALP |
Epping | LIB | 16.2 | 12.2 | 9.2 | LIB |
Fairfield | ALP | -17.8 | -21.8 | -24.8 | ALP |
Gosford | ALP | -0.2 | -4.2 | -7.2 | ALP |
Goulburn | LIB | 6.6 | 2.6 | -0.4 | TOSSUP |
Granville | ALP | -2.1 | -6.1 | -9.1 | ALP |
Hawkesbury | LIB | 17.8 | 13.8 | 10.8 | LIB |
Heathcote | LIB | 7.6 | 3.6 | 0.6 | LIB |
Heffron | ALP | -14.1 | -18.1 | -21.1 | ALP |
Holsworthy | LIB | 6.7 | 2.7 | -0.3 | TOSSUP |
Hornsby | LIB | 18.9 | 14.9 | 11.9 | LIB |
Keira | ALP | -17.4 | -21.4 | -24.4 | ALP |
Kiama | LIB | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | LIB |
Kogarah | ALP | -6.9 | -10.9 | -13.9 | ALP |
Ku-ring-gai | LIB | 23.0 | 19.0 | 16.0 | LIB |
Lakemba | ALP | -21.6 | -25.6 | -28.6 | ALP |
Lane Cove | LIB | 17.8 | 13.8 | 10.8 | LIB |
Liverpool | ALP | -20.9 | -24.9 | -27.9 | ALP |
Londonderry | ALP | -8.8 | -12.8 | -15.8 | ALP |
Macquarie Fields | ALP | -8.1 | -12.1 | -15.1 | ALP |
Maitland | ALP | -13.8 | -17.8 | -20.8 | ALP |
Maroubra | ALP | -10.8 | -14.8 | -17.8 | ALP |
Miranda | LIB | 13.0 | 9.0 | 6.0 | LIB |
Monaro | NAT | 2.5 | -1.5 | -4.5 | ALP |
Mount Druitt | ALP | -15.4 | -19.4 | -22.4 | ALP |
Mulgoa | LIB | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.7 | LIB |
Myall Lakes | NAT | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | NAT |
Newcastle | ALP | -7.4 | -11.4 | -14.4 | ALP |
Northern Tablelands | NAT | 27.1 | 23.1 | 20.1 | NAT |
Oatley | LIB | 6.6 | 2.6 | -0.4 | TOSSUP |
Oxley | NAT | 10.9 | 6.9 | 3.9 | NAT |
Parramatta | LIB | 12.9 | 8.9 | 5.9 | LIB |
Penrith | LIB | 6.2 | 2.2 | -0.8 | TOSSUP |
Port Macquarie | NAT | 19.0 | 15.0 | 12.0 | NAT |
Port Stephens | ALP | -4.7 | -8.7 | -11.7 | ALP |
Prospect | ALP | -3.4 | -7.4 | -10.4 | ALP |
Riverstone | LIB | 12.2 | 8.2 | 5.2 | LIB |
Rockdale | ALP | -4.8 | -8.8 | -11.8 | ALP |
Ryde | LIB | 11.5 | 7.5 | 4.5 | LIB |
Seven Hills | LIB | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | LIB |
Shellharbour | ALP | -17.0 | -21.0 | -24.0 | ALP |
South Coast | LIB | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.6 | LIB |
Strathfield | ALP | -1.8 | -5.8 | -8.8 | ALP |
Swansea | ALP | -13.0 | -17.0 | -20.0 | ALP |
Terrigal | LIB | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | LIB |
The Entrance | ALP | -0.4 | -4.4 | -7.4 | ALP |
Tweed | NAT | 3.2 | -0.8 | -3.8 | ALP |
Upper Hunter | NAT | 2.2 | -1.8 | -4.8 | ALP |
Wakehurst | LIB | 25.2 | 21.2 | 18.2 | LIB |
Wallsend | ALP | -20.8 | -24.8 | -27.8 | ALP |
Wollondilly | LIB | 17.3 | 13.3 | 10.3 | LIB |
Wyong | ALP | -8.7 | -12.7 | -15.7 | ALP |
But, as noted, four of the crucial seats are Nationals, not Liberals. Unfortunately, every poll since the last election has treated the two parties as a single block so we cannot look at the NAT:ALP swing specifically. Lismore is an oddity already, as a Nationals v Greens race. The other three would fall to the ALP even under a 4% swing. A closer look at these seats will have to wait until the last round of analysis, but I’ve marked them as TOSSUPs for now.
SEAT | INCUMBENT | COALITION LEAD | 4PP SWING | 7PP SWING | PREDICTION |
Albury | LIB | 13.2 | 9.2 | 6.2 | LIB |
Auburn | ALP | -5.9 | -9.9 | -12.9 | ALP |
Bankstown | ALP | -14.0 | -18.0 | -21.0 | ALP |
Barwon | NAT | 12.9 | 8.9 | 5.9 | NAT |
Bathurst | NAT | 15.8 | 11.8 | 8.8 | NAT |
Baulkham Hills | LIB | 21.8 | 17.8 | 14.8 | LIB |
Bega | LIB | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.2 | LIB |
Blacktown | ALP | -13.2 | -17.2 | -20.2 | ALP |
Blue Mountains | ALP | -8.1 | -12.1 | -15.1 | ALP |
Cabramatta | ALP | -17.2 | -21.2 | -24.2 | ALP |
Camden | LIB | 18.3 | 14.3 | 11.3 | LIB |
Campbelltown | ALP | -7.3 | -11.3 | -14.3 | ALP |
Canterbury | ALP | -15.7 | -19.7 | -22.7 | ALP |
Castle Hill | LIB | 29.4 | 25.4 | 22.4 | LIB |
Cessnock | ALP | -22.0 | -26.0 | -29.0 | ALP |
Charlestown | ALP | -12.9 | -16.9 | -19.9 | ALP |
Clarence | NAT | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.7 | NAT |
Coffs Harbour | NAT | 14.3 | 10.3 | 7.3 | NAT |
Coogee | LIB | 2.9 | -1.1 | -4.1 | ALP |
Cootamundra | NAT | 20.4 | 16.4 | 13.4 | NAT |
Cronulla | LIB | 20.9 | 16.9 | 13.9 | LIB |
Drummoyne | LIB | 18.8 | 14.8 | 11.8 | LIB |
Dubbo | NAT | 20.4 | 16.4 | 13.4 | NAT |
East Hills | LIB | 0.4 | -3.6 | -6.6 | ALP |
Epping | LIB | 16.2 | 12.2 | 9.2 | LIB |
Fairfield | ALP | -17.8 | -21.8 | -24.8 | ALP |
Gosford | ALP | -0.2 | -4.2 | -7.2 | ALP |
Goulburn | LIB | 6.6 | 2.6 | -0.4 | TOSSUP |
Granville | ALP | -2.1 | -6.1 | -9.1 | ALP |
Hawkesbury | LIB | 17.8 | 13.8 | 10.8 | LIB |
Heathcote | LIB | 7.6 | 3.6 | 0.6 | LIB |
Heffron | ALP | -14.1 | -18.1 | -21.1 | ALP |
Holsworthy | LIB | 6.7 | 2.7 | -0.3 | TOSSUP |
Hornsby | LIB | 18.9 | 14.9 | 11.9 | LIB |
Keira | ALP | -17.4 | -21.4 | -24.4 | ALP |
Kiama | LIB | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | LIB |
Kogarah | ALP | -6.9 | -10.9 | -13.9 | ALP |
Ku-ring-gai | LIB | 23.0 | 19.0 | 16.0 | LIB |
Lakemba | ALP | -21.6 | -25.6 | -28.6 | ALP |
Lane Cove | LIB | 17.8 | 13.8 | 10.8 | LIB |
Liverpool | ALP | -20.9 | -24.9 | -27.9 | ALP |
Londonderry | ALP | -8.8 | -12.8 | -15.8 | ALP |
Macquarie Fields | ALP | -8.1 | -12.1 | -15.1 | ALP |
Maitland | ALP | -13.8 | -17.8 | -20.8 | ALP |
Maroubra | ALP | -10.8 | -14.8 | -17.8 | ALP |
Miranda | LIB | 13.0 | 9.0 | 6.0 | LIB |
Monaro | NAT | 2.5 | -1.5 | -4.5 | TOSSUP |
Mount Druitt | ALP | -15.4 | -19.4 | -22.4 | ALP |
Mulgoa | LIB | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.7 | LIB |
Myall Lakes | NAT | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | NAT |
Newcastle | ALP | -7.4 | -11.4 | -14.4 | ALP |
Northern Tablelands | NAT | 27.1 | 23.1 | 20.1 | NAT |
Oatley | LIB | 6.6 | 2.6 | -0.4 | TOSSUP |
Oxley | NAT | 10.9 | 6.9 | 3.9 | NAT |
Parramatta | LIB | 12.9 | 8.9 | 5.9 | LIB |
Penrith | LIB | 6.2 | 2.2 | -0.8 | TOSSUP |
Port Macquarie | NAT | 19.0 | 15.0 | 12.0 | NAT |
Port Stephens | ALP | -4.7 | -8.7 | -11.7 | ALP |
Prospect | ALP | -3.4 | -7.4 | -10.4 | ALP |
Riverstone | LIB | 12.2 | 8.2 | 5.2 | LIB |
Rockdale | ALP | -4.8 | -8.8 | -11.8 | ALP |
Ryde | LIB | 11.5 | 7.5 | 4.5 | LIB |
Seven Hills | LIB | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | LIB |
Shellharbour | ALP | -17.0 | -21.0 | -24.0 | ALP |
South Coast | LIB | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.6 | LIB |
Strathfield | ALP | -1.8 | -5.8 | -8.8 | ALP |
Swansea | ALP | -13.0 | -17.0 | -20.0 | ALP |
Terrigal | LIB | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | LIB |
The Entrance | ALP | -0.4 | -4.4 | -7.4 | ALP |
Tweed | NAT | 3.2 | -0.8 | -3.8 | TOSSUP |
Upper Hunter | NAT | 2.2 | -1.8 | -4.8 | TOSSUP |
Wakehurst | LIB | 25.2 | 21.2 | 18.2 | LIB |
Wallsend | ALP | -20.8 | -24.8 | -27.8 | ALP |
Wollondilly | LIB | 17.3 | 13.3 | 10.3 | LIB |
Wyong | ALP | -8.7 | -12.7 | -15.7 | ALP |
There are a whopping 18 seats not considered above because they do not fall into the typical Coalition-Labor contest. These can be broken down into 4 main classes: Coalition-Greens races, Labor-Greens races, races against Independents, and the seat of Orange.
Coalition-Greens Races
There are 8 seats considered to be a race between the Coalition and the Greens. As above, it would be nice to treat the Coalition parties separately, but polling does not allow it. Fortunately, the raw numbers make this unnecessary. In all six seats where there is a Liberal-Greens contest, the Liberals have a lead of more than 20 percentage points and are almost guaranteed to hold on. Only the two Nationals’ races (Ballina and Lismore) are close.SEAT | INCUMBENT | COALITION LEAD |
Nationals v Greens | ||
Ballina | GRN | -3.1 |
Lismore | NAT | 2.9 |
Liberal v Greens | ||
Davidson | LIB | 28.8 |
Manly | LIB | 24.5 |
North Shore | LIB | 21.2 |
Pittwater | LIB | 25.7 |
Vaucluse | LIB | 22.9 |
Willoughby | LIB | 24.4 |
The bad news is that this suggests there is a difference between the performance of the Liberal and National parties, or at least attitudes are very different in Nationals seats to those in Liberal seats. This confirms the need for caution using Coalition polling uniformly in NSW.
In both seats, interestingly, the results would have been closer in a NAT-ALP contest than NAT-GRN. This shows how crucial it is for the Greens to out-poll the Labor party (which they only just managed in 2015) and that the ALP is also in with a shot in each seat. District polling suggests support for the Nationals has fallen in Lismore and Ballina is already in Greens’ hands. Then again, the ALP has been campaigning against the Greens quite determinedly and have gained a slight swing so they might sneak ahead in either seat. The Greens incumbent in Ballina has to be an advantage there, and the retirement of the incumbent Nationals member in Lismore makes me want to mark it as changing hands.
In the good old days, I’d predict Ballina for the Greens and leave Lismore as a tossup. Forced to pick, I’m giving both to the Greens.
SEAT | INCUMBENT | COALITION LEAD | PREDICTION |
Nationals v Greens | |||
Ballina | GRN | -3.1 | GRN |
Lismore | NAT | 2.9 | GRN |
Liberal v Greens | |||
Davidson | LIB | 28.8 | LIB |
Manly | LIB | 24.5 | LIB |
North Shore | LIB | 21.2 | LIB |
Pittwater | LIB | 25.7 | LIB |
Vaucluse | LIB | 22.9 | LIB |
Willoughby | LIB | 24.4 | LIB |
Labor-Greens Races
As mentioned above, the ALP has been campaigning against the Greens and might have had a slight swing (from 34:10 in 2015 to a possible 36:10 in Newspoll and a consistent 34:10 in Reachtel). Interestingly, though, the Greens vote does not appear to have dropped. Either way, based on state-wide polling I wouldn’t expect a dramatic swing.SEAT | INCUMBENT | ALP LEAD |
Balmain | GRN | -4.7 |
Newtown | GRN | -9.3 |
Summer Hill | ALP | 10.5 |
Balmain is the only one of these three that would appear marginal on the 2015 numbers, but this is not necessarily that straight forward when you have a possible three-corner fight. In seats where the Greens are incumbent, they get the bonuses of name recognition and being viewed as a genuine option. For this reason, I am having Balmain and Newtown remain with the Greens. ALP’s strong lead against the Greens and an even stronger defeat of the Coalition make this a safe pick for Labor.
SEAT | INCUMBENT | ALP LEAD | PREDICTION |
Balmain | GRN | -4.7 | GRN |
Newtown | GRN | -9.3 | GRN |
Summer Hill | ALP | 10.5 | ALP |
What’s the Deal with Orange?
The seat of Orange is currently held by the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, making it an oddity. This is the result of a very close (50.1:49.9) 2016 by-election, so may be an anomaly. On the other hand, the SFF legitimately out-performed the ALP and will now be seen as a legitimate option. Obviously, polling isn’t available to help out here. The seat was previously held by the Nationals.Even though the SFF is a conservative party, they can expect to pick up support from Labor and Greens voters who refuse to support the Coalition if they remain in the final two. There will be a little more contest with the Conservative party running, though, and possibly greater ALP support with the prospect of a changing government. Therefore, I’m going to take a completely unfounded guess that the ALP will outlast the SFP, which will see the Nationals reclaim the seat easily.
SEAT | INCUMBENT | PREDICTION |
Orange | SFF | ALP |
Independents and Tossups
Six seats are races involving independents. Three have a large margin to the incumbent party (two Nationals and a Labor) and don’t represent a strong Independent so much as a completely underwhelming performance from opposition parties.The other three are held by Independents with comfortable margins. These are unlikely to suffer much from the very party-vs-party focussed campaign, and the members for Sydney, Wagga Wagga and Lake Macquarie are all recontesting in 2019. All are well placed to hold their seats.
SEAT | INCUMBENT | DOMINANT PARTY | PARTY LEAD | PREDICTION |
Lake Macquarie | IND | ALP | -10.7 | IND |
Murray | NAT | NAT | 22.7 | NAT |
Sydney | IND | LIB | -8.1 | IND |
Tamworth | NAT | NAT | 10.0 | NAT |
Wagga Wagga | IND | LIB | -9.6 | IND |
Wollongong | ALP | ALP | 8.0 | ALP |
The Story So Far
That leaves us with a largely unchanged pendulum:SEAT | INCUMBENT | PREDICTION |
Albury | LIB | LIB |
Auburn | ALP | ALP |
Ballina | GRN | GRN |
Balmain | GRN | GRN |
Bankstown | ALP | ALP |
Barwon | NAT | NAT |
Bathurst | NAT | NAT |
Baulkham Hills | LIB | LIB |
Bega | LIB | LIB |
Blacktown | ALP | ALP |
Blue Mountains | ALP | ALP |
Cabramatta | ALP | ALP |
Camden | LIB | LIB |
Campbelltown | ALP | ALP |
Canterbury | ALP | ALP |
Castle Hill | LIB | LIB |
Cessnock | ALP | ALP |
Charlestown | ALP | ALP |
Clarence | NAT | NAT |
Coffs Harbour | NAT | NAT |
Coogee | LIB | ALP |
Cootamundra | NAT | NAT |
Cronulla | LIB | LIB |
Davidson | LIB | LIB |
Drummoyne | LIB | LIB |
Dubbo | NAT | NAT |
East Hills | LIB | ALP |
Epping | LIB | LIB |
Fairfield | ALP | ALP |
Gosford | ALP | ALP |
Goulburn | LIB | TOSSUP |
Granville | ALP | ALP |
Hawkesbury | LIB | LIB |
Heathcote | LIB | LIB |
Heffron | ALP | ALP |
Holsworthy | LIB | TOSSUP |
Hornsby | LIB | LIB |
Keira | ALP | ALP |
Kiama | LIB | LIB |
Kogarah | ALP | ALP |
Ku-ring-gai | LIB | LIB |
Lake Macquarie | IND | IND |
Lakemba | ALP | ALP |
Lane Cove | LIB | LIB |
Lismore | NAT | GRN |
Liverpool | ALP | ALP |
Londonderry | ALP | ALP |
Macquarie Fields | ALP | ALP |
Maitland | ALP | ALP |
Manly | LIB | LIB |
Maroubra | ALP | ALP |
Miranda | LIB | LIB |
Monaro | NAT | TOSSUP |
Mount Druitt | ALP | ALP |
Mulgoa | LIB | LIB |
Murray | NAT | NAT |
Myall Lakes | NAT | NAT |
Newcastle | ALP | ALP |
Newtown | GRN | GRN |
North Shore | LIB | LIB |
Northern Tablelands | NAT | NAT |
Oatley | LIB | TOSSUP |
Orange | SFF | ALP |
Oxley | NAT | NAT |
Parramatta | LIB | LIB |
Penrith | LIB | TOSSUP |
Pittwater | LIB | LIB |
Port Macquarie | NAT | NAT |
Port Stephens | ALP | ALP |
Prospect | ALP | ALP |
Riverstone | LIB | LIB |
Rockdale | ALP | ALP |
Ryde | LIB | LIB |
Seven Hills | LIB | LIB |
Shellharbour | ALP | ALP |
South Coast | LIB | LIB |
Strathfield | ALP | ALP |
Summer Hill | ALP | ALP |
Swansea | ALP | ALP |
Sydney | IND | IND |
Tamworth | NAT | NAT |
Terrigal | LIB | LIB |
The Entrance | ALP | ALP |
Tweed | NAT | TOSSUP |
Upper Hunter | NAT | TOSSUP |
Vaucluse | LIB | LIB |
Wagga Wagga | IND | IND |
Wakehurst | LIB | LIB |
Wallsend | ALP | ALP |
Willoughby | LIB | LIB |
Wollondilly | LIB | LIB |
Wollongong | ALP | ALP |
Wyong | ALP | ALP |
This shows the Liberals on 30, the Nationals on 12 and Labor on 37. That’s a gain for Labor at the expense of the Coalition, but not enough for either side to form a majority. There are 4 Greens seats that would likely side with the ALP dividing the house 42:41 with a very slight Coalition lead. There are three Independents who may well hold the balance of power, depending on how the remaining 7 tossups fall.
The ALP needs 6 of these to take government by majority. The Coalition needs 5. It all comes down to Goulburn, Holsworthy, Monaro, Oatley, Penrith, Tweed, and Upper Hunter.
Goulburn, Holsworthy, Monaro, Oatley, Penrith, Tweed, and Upper Hunter
Goulburn: This seat has a moderate margin of 6.6% to the Liberals that should fend off all but the worst of polled trends, but it is vulnerable. Pru Goward has been the only incumbent since the seat was re-established in 2007, so there is little history to rely on. A strong primary vote in 2015 suggests Goulburn will likely weather this storm unless the swing is larger than polling suggests. LIB HOLD.Holsworthy: Holsworthy was first contested last election, so there is little precedent to rely on. The margin is a moderate 6.7%, but the Liberals almost won the seat outright with a primary vote of 49.5%. There’s really not much to go on, but that’s an impressive opening score, so I’m tipping the Libs to hold this one too. LIB HOLD.
Monaro: Monaro has a mixed National and Labor history, marking this as one of the seats the ALP will really want to pick up. Monaro is likely going to be a litmus test for Labor’s viability at forming government, so it’s my ‘one to watch’. This one really comes down to how the Nationals are polling, which is largely disguised in the available data. The margin is only 2.5, though, so unless the Nats are doing considerably better than the Liberals or can break Monaro out of the trend, I think Labor might carry this. ALP GAIN.
Oatley: This seat has some Labor in its history, but the Liberals won this on primary votes alone last time. That suggests people actually like the Liberals here, rather than simply disliking the ALP, and that should play in the Coalition’s favour this time. It’ll also need a swing towards the larger end of the predictions to shift this one. Forced to pick, I’ll back the Libs to win here. LIB HOLD.
Penrith: Penrith has plenty of Labor in its past, but the Libs had a lead of more than 10 percentage points in the last election. Even with the Greens vote, the Coalition easily took this, and to lose it will take a larger swing. Certainly not safe, but probably safe enough for the Liberal Party. LIB HOLD.
Tweed: The Greens do comparatively well in Tweed; at least they did in 2015. Combined with the ALP they beat the Nats on primary votes, leaving everything to the minor party voters to decide. This is one of the more likely ALP wins on the list, and a seat they’ve held previously. Based on very little, I’m controversially backing the Labor party here. ALP GAIN.
Upper Hunter: Upper Hunter was close in 2015, and no doubt the Labor Party would love to take it because it has been a National’s seat since before the Nationals existed. But for that reason, I think Labor may have come close to maximum support last election and I’m expecting the Nationals to be returned just like they have been for 87 years. NAT HOLD.
Conclusion
So the final prediction looks like this:SEAT | INCUMBENT | PREDICTION |
Albury | LIB | LIB |
Auburn | ALP | ALP |
Ballina | GRN | GRN |
Balmain | GRN | GRN |
Bankstown | ALP | ALP |
Barwon | NAT | NAT |
Bathurst | NAT | NAT |
Baulkham Hills | LIB | LIB |
Bega | LIB | LIB |
Blacktown | ALP | ALP |
Blue Mountains | ALP | ALP |
Cabramatta | ALP | ALP |
Camden | LIB | LIB |
Campbelltown | ALP | ALP |
Canterbury | ALP | ALP |
Castle Hill | LIB | LIB |
Cessnock | ALP | ALP |
Charlestown | ALP | ALP |
Clarence | NAT | NAT |
Coffs Harbour | NAT | NAT |
Coogee | LIB | ALP |
Cootamundra | NAT | NAT |
Cronulla | LIB | LIB |
Davidson | LIB | LIB |
Drummoyne | LIB | LIB |
Dubbo | NAT | NAT |
East Hills | LIB | ALP |
Epping | LIB | LIB |
Fairfield | ALP | ALP |
Gosford | ALP | ALP |
Goulburn | LIB | LIB |
Granville | ALP | ALP |
Hawkesbury | LIB | LIB |
Heathcote | LIB | LIB |
Heffron | ALP | ALP |
Holsworthy | LIB | LIB |
Hornsby | LIB | LIB |
Keira | ALP | ALP |
Kiama | LIB | LIB |
Kogarah | ALP | ALP |
Ku-ring-gai | LIB | LIB |
Lake Macquarie | IND | IND |
Lakemba | ALP | ALP |
Lane Cove | LIB | LIB |
Lismore | NAT | GRN |
Liverpool | ALP | ALP |
Londonderry | ALP | ALP |
Macquarie Fields | ALP | ALP |
Maitland | ALP | ALP |
Manly | LIB | LIB |
Maroubra | ALP | ALP |
Miranda | LIB | LIB |
Monaro | NAT | ALP |
Mount Druitt | ALP | ALP |
Mulgoa | LIB | LIB |
Murray | NAT | NAT |
Myall Lakes | NAT | NAT |
Newcastle | ALP | ALP |
Newtown | GRN | GRN |
North Shore | LIB | LIB |
Northern Tablelands | NAT | NAT |
Oatley | LIB | LIB |
Orange | SFF | ALP |
Oxley | NAT | NAT |
Parramatta | LIB | LIB |
Penrith | LIB | LIB |
Pittwater | LIB | LIB |
Port Macquarie | NAT | NAT |
Port Stephens | ALP | ALP |
Prospect | ALP | ALP |
Riverstone | LIB | LIB |
Rockdale | ALP | ALP |
Ryde | LIB | LIB |
Seven Hills | LIB | LIB |
Shellharbour | ALP | ALP |
South Coast | LIB | LIB |
Strathfield | ALP | ALP |
Summer Hill | ALP | ALP |
Swansea | ALP | ALP |
Sydney | IND | IND |
Tamworth | NAT | NAT |
Terrigal | LIB | LIB |
The Entrance | ALP | ALP |
Tweed | NAT | ALP |
Upper Hunter | NAT | NAT |
Vaucluse | LIB | LIB |
Wagga Wagga | IND | IND |
Wakehurst | LIB | LIB |
Wallsend | ALP | ALP |
Willoughby | LIB | LIB |
Wollondilly | LIB | LIB |
Wollongong | ALP | ALP |
Wyong | ALP | ALP |
But no one cares about that. The real question is who will win government, and based on these numbers the Coalition will make exactly 47—just enough for a majority. Even if they don’t, the ALP only has 39 predicted and another 4 for the Greens. They would need to win a few surprise seats and then sway the Independents to help them form a minority government. That seems unlikely, but anything can happen on election day.
Two polls have and a final debate have been released since this post, but it does not change things significantly.
ReplyDeleteYouGov released a poll on the 19th that had a boost to both major parties (Coalition up one to 41, ALP up two to 38) at the expense of One Nation (down 4 percentage points to 1%). The two-party-preferred result stayed as 50:50, making no change to the lower house. The fall of ONP (possibly by association with Fraser Anning's comments on the New Zealand shooting) would potentially affect the upper house, but I don't have an obvious replacement and I'm not convinced these numbers are reliable given the consistent strength of One Nation for over a year.
Yesterday, Newspoll put out a poll that had the Coalition up one point and Labor down one from the numbers used in our predictions above. This one-point shift is consistent in the primary and 2pp numbers, but is negligible in polling with a 2-3 point margin of error. ONP was not polled separately, but its 5% result is apparent in the 'others' category, further questioning the accuracy of the YouGov poll.