Sunday, 29 July 2018

Quick-Fire Round

Well, I certainly wasn't expecting to have all the results available yet, but we do, so let's look at the reliability of this week's predictions:


Seat Prediction: Tossup, nominally ALP.
Seat Result: ALP, prediction accurate.

Secondary Prediction: Result unknown on election night, resolved around mid-week (~ Wednesday)
Secondary Result: Result known early on election night, prediction wrong.


Seat Prediction: ALP.
Seat Result: ALP, prediction accurate.

I should probably have taken a punt at who would be second in the absence of a Liberal candidate, but apparently I forgot.


Seat Prediction: Tossup, nominally LNP.
Seat Result: ALP, prediction inaccurate.

Secondary Prediction: Result unknown on election night, resolved around mid-week (~ Thursday).
Secondary Result: Result known early on election night, prediction wrong.

Tertiary Prediction: An LNP win in Longman (or a Lib win in Braddon) will be framed generally as a failure of the ALP and a glowing endorsement of the current government regardless of the results in the other seats. The 98-year drought of governments winning by-elections from oppositions will be cited as proof that the coalition is the real winner of Super Saturday even if they walk away with only one win.
Tertiary Result: N/A.


Seat Prediction: Centre Alliance.
Seat Result: Centre Alliance, prediction accurate.


Seat Prediction: ALP.
Seat Result: ALP, prediction accurate.

Secondary Prediction: Ian Britza (IND) emerges as the two-party competitor for the seat.
Secondary Result: Greens polled in second place, indicating exactly how left-leaning Perth is. The emerging conservative candidate was not Ian Britza, but Paul Collins with a primary vote of close to 10%.


That comes to 4/5 on seat predictions, or 80%. Three of those could be considered foregone conclusions, so that's 50% on the slose races but both looking to be very tight indeed and in the good old days would have been listed as tossups.

The secondary predictions were less successful. In both tossup seats I had expected results to take a few days to count; in practice we discovered the results in both seats quite early in the evening. I also predicted Ian Britza would emerge as the de facto Liberal-equivalent player and runner-up in Perth. In reality the Greens retained their position as the third party--something I should have forseen--and without the Liberals their primary vote took kept them in second place leaving the ALP to ultimately scoop up all the conservative votes. The strongest conservative candidate was Paul Collins, one of the three independents I had pegged as a possible Liberal substitute (Libstitute?), but the least likely of the three (after Mr Britza and Jim Grayden).

I should probably done something similar for Fremantle. I would probably have overlooked the Greens' primary vote. I even wrote that "the Greens are the most prominent option [after Labor] but their left-of-Labor position makes them an unlikely repository for would-be-Liberal votes." As with Perth they came in second, so I would in all likelihood have floundered there too. Freo has a much smaller field to begin with, and of the conservative options in my predictions for the seat I noted:

Informed voters who would have voted for the Liberals are most likely to be drawn to the Independent in my opinion, while less attentive electors may confuse the LibDems with the Libs. That being said, on the Facebook pages that we used for the party profiles the LibDems have 522 likes and 540 followers to the Independent’s 88 likes and 92 follows. On those numbers, the LibDems are more popular with informed voters too.
For this reason, I would expect an ALP win Freo comfortably, but with the LibDems as their rival party.
If you take that as a prediction, I failed to account for the Greens as in Perth but at least I was correct in picking the de facto conservatives as the LibDems with 14% of the primary vote, more than the alternative conservative/centrist options combined (AC 5.3%, IND 5.1%, APP 1.1%; Total 11.5%)

The only other prediction related to political spin in the event of a Liberal win in either marginal seat, a situation which has not evidently not occured.

Seat Predictions: 4/5 (80%) ✔️✔️✔️✔️❌
Secondary Predictions: 0/3 (0%) ❌❌❌
Other Predictions: One N/A, one unofficial prediction partially correct but technically wrong.

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