(Backdated from 19/12)
The prediction for this election was based on a swing to Labor of between 0.9 percentage points and 4.0 percentage points. There is no two-party preferred data for the state as a whole, but by averaging the 2PP data for the 65 seats that resulted in an ALP v LNP split, an approximated 51.7 two-party result for Labor can be calculated. This may, of course, shift dramatically when data from strong conservative (LNP v ONP) or progressive (ALP v GRN) contests are added in, but this is a mere 0.6pp swing to the ALP from the 2015 election.
On this data we would expect Labor to increase it's hold on government, but somewhat less so that predicted. For a more accurate check of our predictions, here is the seat-by-seat comparison of prediction with actual results:
Of the 12 incorrect predictions, five were to minor parties or independents, which are always hard to predict.