Thursday, 23 November 2017

Rainbows and Sunshine (Results)

(Backdated from 19/12)

The prediction for this election was based on a swing to Labor of between 0.9 percentage points and 4.0 percentage points. There is no two-party preferred data for the state as a whole, but by averaging the 2PP data for the 65 seats that resulted in an ALP v LNP split, an approximated 51.7 two-party result for Labor can be calculated. This may, of course, shift dramatically when data from strong conservative (LNP v ONP) or progressive (ALP v GRN) contests are added in, but this is a mere 0.6pp swing to the ALP from the 2015 election.

On this data we would expect Labor to increase it's hold on government, but somewhat less so that predicted. For a more accurate check of our predictions, here is the seat-by-seat comparison of prediction with actual results:

*Apparently I forgot to lodge a prediction for Nicklin, but the seat was Liberal/National since foundation except for Independent Peter Wellington from 1998 to 2017 who did not contest this election. While held by Wellington, this was by a margin against the LNP, so the prediction should have been clear.
This comes to 80 correct predictions (including Nicklin) of the 92 seats predicted (excluding Bonney), or 87.0% correct.

Of the 12 incorrect predictions, five were to minor parties or independents, which are always hard to predict.

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