Constituencies and Candidates Within 15% of the Leading Candidate 2010
Sorry for the length. There's no easy way to deal with 650 constituencies. Also, sorry about the colours. I didn't pick them. (Red and Purple? Seriously Labour and Co-operative party.)
Calculations of swing (2005-2010) by constituency, as a portion of the national swing, the multiplier to approximate one from the other and the application of this to current polling. [Polling source ICM 3-6 May.]
As per Table 1, but with all negative multipliers set to 0.