Friday, 28 November 2014

Victoria 2014

This post was supposed to be coming to you from the great southern continent of Antarctica. That, in itself, posed a few challenges. However after my plans were interrupted by mechanical failure, a bout of food poisoning and an entire Friday wasted as a result of an absent minded mistake this post became even harder to create, despite coming to you from our regular base of operations.

I had hoped to get some party profiles done it time, but didn't. However, a rough guide to most of the parties can be gauged by the last federal election's senate ticket for Victoria, analysed here.

More information on how the predictions below were reached will be forthcoming, however for now I will simply assert that I expect the following results in the lower house:

Albert Park: Labor
Altona: Labor
Bass: Liberal
Bayswater: Liberal
Bellarine: Labor
Benambra: Liberal
Bendigo East: Labor
Bendigo West: Labor
Bentleigh: Labor
Box Hill: Liberal
Brighton: Liberal
Broadmeadows: Labor
Brunswick: Labor
Bulleen: Liberal
Bundoora: Labor
Buninyong: Labor
Burwood: Liberal
Carrum: Labor
Caulfield: Liberal
Clarinda: Labor
Cranbourne: Labor
Croydon: Liberal
Dandenong: Labor
Eildon: Liberal
Eltham: Labor
Essendon: Labor
Euroa: Liberal
Evelyn: Liberal
Ferntree Gully: Liberal
Footscray: Labor
Forest Hill: Labor
Frankston: Labor
Geelong: Labor
Gembrook: Liberal
Gippsland East: National
Gippsland South: National
Hastings: Liberal
Hawthorn: Liberal
Ivanhoe: Labor
Kew: Liberal
Keysborough: Labor
Kororoit: Labor
Lara: Labor
Lowan: National
Macedon: Labor
Malvern: Liberal
Melbourne: Labor
Melton: Labor
Mildura: National
Mill Park: Labor
Monbulk: Labor
Mordialloc: Labor
Mornington: Liberal
Morwell: National
Mount Waverley: Liberal
Mulgrave: Labor
Murray Plains: National
Narracan: Liberal
Narre Warren North: Labor
Narre Warren South: Labor
Nepean: Liberal
Niddrie: Labor
Northcote: Labor
Oakleigh: Labor
Ovens Valley: National
Pascoe Vale: Labor
Polwarth: Liberal
Prahran: Labor
Preston: Labor
Richmond: Labor
Ringwood: Liberal
Ripon: Labor
Rowville: Liberal
Sandringham: Liberal
Shepparton: National
South Barwon: Labor
South-West Coast: Liberal
St Albans: Labor
Sunbury: Labor
Sydenham: Labor
Tarneit: Labor
Thomastown: Labor
Warrandyte: Liberal
Wendouree: Labor
Werribee: Labor
Williamstown: Labor
Yan Yean: Labor
Yuroke: Labor

Gembrook and Mount Waverly were both a bit dubious, but I did not use any of the 4 tossups available to me. All of these results do, coincidentally, coincide with the swing compared to the adjusted polling from the 2010 election, but makes definite claims in Brunswick, Melbourne, Northcote and Richmond, which would all be tossups under the swing-based system as the 2010 2PP results were ALP vs Greens, and thus the Labor-Liberal swing would be irrelevant.
No predictions have been made for the upper house.

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