Sunday, 25 May 2014

Good Night and Bad Luck...

While things have not been slow in the world of elections – particularly in Ukraine – there has been little movement in the spheres that I normally write about. This week will look at the recent predictions before this blog returns to hibernation.

This hiatus will end as soon as there is regular updates to provide on the Victorian and US Midterm elections, both in November (so expect blogs from late September/early October).


No points are going to be awarded, and no detailed analysis of what went right/wrong can really be produced with any real detail. I predicted that ‘Austria may come from nowhere, but I doubt it’, so like the conclave predictions, I did shortlist the winner but didn’t pick it. I consider that a partial victory, and at least I didn’t back France.


Here we have two possible points – one for Huon and one for Rosevears.
In Rosevears Kerry Finch (IND) easily retained his seat as predicted (with over 60% of the primary vote).
In Huon, I predicted Peter Hodgeman (LIB) to win. Hodgeman came a close second to my second bet, Robert Armstrong. Hodgeman was easily ahead on primary votes, and retained this lead until the fifth count, but was ultimately beaten on preferences. While I had expected the left vote to bolster Liz Smith, and I has expected this to be insufficient, I did not appreciate the size of this flowing on to just about anyone but Hodgeman (splitting more than 3:1 against, with Lib preferences lower than the exhausted count).
It is clear that Tasmania is in a very conservative mood at the moment. However, it is important not to underestimate the appeal of Independent candidates in Tasmania.
It is unfortunate that the results of this year’s TasLegCo prediction is only 50%, but with only two possible bets this is going to happen from time to time.
These results will be added to the sidebar in the coming days. See you after the winter!

No comments:

Post a Comment