And what better place to start than by colouring in some maps? If it were possible to sit back and enjoy whilst simultaneously perching on the edge of your seat, I would advise it now as we enter a weekend of electoral map colouring in a three-part Mapstravaganza!
|The last couple of months for me have been a montage of pencil sharpeners and colouring books.|
|Red is SA Labor, Blue is the Coalition (LIB and NAT), Grey is Independent|
As discovered here, there are a few methods of using prior seat data to give a good starting point for further analysis. In the federal election the "as is" map (i.e. the equivalent of the above) was 85% accurate. Another 85% accurate map was obtained by averaging the seat histories:
Where seats that have earlier incarnations (Enfield 1956-1970; Port Adelaide 1857-1970; Stuart 1938-1993 and West Torrens 1857-1902, 1915-1938, 1956-1970) only the most recent version of that seat is included. Where a seat has its names changed but is not modified in any other way, data from the previously-named seat is also included. Dunstan was named Norwood until 2014 and MacKillop was Victoria until 1993.
This next map only considers electoral data from the last 5 elections (1993, 1997, 2002, 2006 and 2010). Over half of the current electoral districts were present by the 1985 election with the additions of Bright and Ramsay, but a further 10 were added two elections later, making 1993 arbitrarily the beginning of the following map.
In the mean time, happy new election cycle everybody!
- Pretty maps. More to come over the rest of the weekend.
- Maps of the current standings and averaged history of electorates provided above.
- VDTA's to follow in part 2 on Saturday.
- Analysis in part 3 on Sunday.
*All data is used from after (and including) the 1938 election. Although South Australian elections can be followed right back to 1857, 1938 marks the end of multi-candidate electorates and begins the era of comparable data. Several current seats had incarnations dating pack to 1857, but only Flinders has existed since then without interruption.
** The Liberal Movement is counted as Coalition, even though a small segment broke away to form the New Liberal Movement and eventaully joined the Democrats.