I was just going to update the data in earlier posts as the AEC confirmed the election results, but several requests have led me to address a few other matters, so I may as well post them afresh here.
Here are the House of Representative results:
This ammounts to 127 predictions correct out of 141 known results, or just over 90%. 90% is the bare minimum I would consider a decent result, since pure guesswork will get almost 50% and just a cursory consideration of polls and margins should make over 80%.
If we assume Palmer wins Faifax (which, with a lead of around 1% of 1% of the votes, is not at all certain despite what many media outlets are reporting) and Labor has won Wills (which I feel is by far the most likely outcome) this gives a success rate of 89.5%, which is not great. [EDIT: I can confirm Labor has won Wills. You just have to trawl through all of the seat-by-seat CSV downloads on the AEC website.] In the future it may perhaps be more meaningful to compare my success rate against a baseline of what would be predicted by applying a uniform swing from the polling data to the pendulum, thus accounting for abberant and bizzare electoral phenomena.
|Abberant and bizzare electoral phenomenon Clive Palmer|