Detailed electoral predictions to follow, with a matter of hours until polling booths open in some areas. However, I have not found any method of refining generic swings into seat-specifics. As a result, my predictions will largely follow a traditional application of the general reported swing to the pre-election pendulum, but I will also consider the factors highlighted here and elsewhere on this blog, an explain in detail why my predictions are what they are.
In the mean time, feel free to download and print out these Australian electoral images. Normally I would be sitting at home with a pot of tea and images like these to colour in as seats fall. This year I will miss most of those luxuries, but I'll still be filling in the boxes to watch one party or another creep over the line.
First up, here is the electoral map:
The map is always good fun, but with some seats being many, many times the size of others it is worth also using a more ballanced table, below. I normally colour the progressives (ALP, Greens etc) from the left and conservatives (Liberal, National etc) from the right and see who crosses the cntre line first. However, others may prefer to label each box, which allows you to handle independents more effectively. Either way, here is the simplified table:
|Pretty basic, but it does the job.|
And for the senate, here is a state-by-state breakdown, with the carry-over senators already filled in. (I have put the DLP in the middle, although they will back the Coalition).
And again, a first-over the middle chart: