District Run-Down (6 of 6) - Tasmania, Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory

Today was scheduled to be the busiest day in our electoral run-down calendar in as much as we will be looking at both territories as well as Tasmania, although this gives a sum total of 9 seats, which is less than any other week. Unfortunately, due to several complications, the New South Wales run down has been postponed to this weekend as well. Enjoy the datastorm!

      June 15th: South Australia (X)
      June 22nd: Western Australia (X)
      June 29th: Victoria (X)
      July 6th: Queensland (X)
July 21st: New South Wales
July 20th: Tasmania, Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory

How to Read These Summaries:

Incumbent: Incumbent lists the current member for the seat and their current party.

Incumbent/Party Run: Incumbent run provides the number of elections won by the current member, and the years of those elections in parentheses. By-elections are ignored.

A second line may be present and indicate the number of elections won by the current member's party, if this is different to the number won by the current member. Again the years of those elections in parentheses, and again by-elections are ignored.

2010 Margin (TPP): This is the margin by which the seat was won after the last redistribution of preferences in the 2010 federal election, and who this margin was against.

Electoral History: A list of previous incumbent parties from the foundation of the seat to the present.

Longest Electoral Run: The most elections won in a row in this seat by one party, with the years of those elections in parentheses and the party which won the seat in those elections.

State/Territory Incumbents: The Tasmanian/ACT incumbents within this federal seat. The incumbent's names are coloured according to their party (blue for Liberals, red for ALP, green for Greens and grey for Independents). The last lower house election in Tasmania was in 2010; the last territorial election in the ACT was held in 2012. Incumbents are listed in the order they reached the Hare-Clark Quota.
Territory Divisions: The NT territorial seats within this federal seat. The seat names are coloured according to their current incumbent (blue for Liberals, red for ALP, and grey for Independents). The last territorial election in the NT was held in 2012.

Assessment: An assessment of the seats political history - that is, whether the seat is traditionally of one party or another. This is only approximated from the data here, does not constitute a prediction and may differ from the current incumbent's party.

Tasmania:

The economy of Tasmania is powered by tourism -- including, unusually, a large number of tourists from Australia -- and more controversially forestry and other primary sector industries (source). The state has a bicameral government, and the last Legislative Assembly (lower house) election was in 2010. The Tasmanian Legislative Assembly is divided into five ... well ... divisions directly equivalent to the Federal five seats. Each contains a further five state seats (25 in all). Elections are held for the entire Federal division, rather than seat-by-seat, using the Hare-Clark system. In some ways this is very similar to how the Federal Senate and various state upper houses are elected, in that a single transferable vote system is applied across a wide area (e.g. an entire state) to elect several people for that area. Ballot order in Tasmania is randomised to ensure Donkey Voting has at most a very limited impact.

The Tasmanian Legislative Council (upper house) is, on the other hand, elected like most lower houses -- on a seat-by-seat basis. These seats are up for election every six years, but staggered so that two or three seats are filled every year.

In 2010 each Federal division in Tasmania elected precisely two candidates from the Labor Party, two from the Liberal Party and one from the Greens. This makes 10 seats for both the Labor and Liberal parties, 3 short of the necessary 13 seat majority, with the Greens holding the balance of power. Currently in the Legislative Council (upper house) sit 2 Liberal councillors, 1 ALP member and 12 Independents.

The state contains 5 federal electoral districts, and as a state elects 6 Senators to the Federal Parliament.

Bass:

Incumbent: Geoff Lyons (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)
2 Elections won (2007 - Present) 

2010 Margin (TPP): 6.74% against LIB

Electoral History: 1903–1909: Protectionist Party
1909–1910: IND
1910–1916: ALP
1916–1917: National Labor Party*
1917–1929: Nationalist Party
1929–1931: ALP
1931–1934: United Australia Party
1934–1949: ALP
1949–1954: LIB
1954–1975: ALP
1975–1993: LIB
1993–1996: ALP
1996–1998: LIB
1998–2004: ALP
2004–2007: LIB
2007–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run: 7 Elections won (1993 - Present) - ALP

State Incumbents: Michael Ferguson, Michelle O'Byrne, Peter Gutwein, Brian Wightman and Kim Booth.
Assessment: Volatile, tossup

 

Braddon:

Incumbent: Sid Sidebottom (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 2 Elections won (2007 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 7.48% against LIB

Electoral History: 1955–1958: LIB
1958–1975: ALP 
1975–1998: LIB
1998–2004: ALP 
2004–2007: LIB
2007–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run: 9 Elections won (1975 - 1998) - LIB

State Incumbents: Bryan Green, Jeremy Rockliff, Brenton Best, Adam Brooks and Paul O'Halloran.
Assessment: Volatile, leaning ALP

 

Denison:

Incumbent: Andrew Wilkie (IND)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 1.12% against ALP

Electoral History: 1903–1906: Protectionist Party
1906–1909: Anti-Socialist Party
1909–1910: Commonwealth Liberal*
1910–1917: ALP
1917–1922: Nationalist Party
1922–1925: ALP 
1925–1928: Nationalist Party
1928–1931: ALP
1931–1934: United Australia Party
1934–1940: ALP
1940–1943: United Australia Party
1943–1949: ALP
1949–1972: LIB
1972–1975: ALP
1975–1987: LIB
1987–2010: ALP
2010–present: IND

Longest Electoral Run: 9 Elections won (1949 - 1972) - LIB

State Incumbents: Cassy O'Connor, David Bartlett (replaced by Graeme Sturges, 2011), Matthew Groom, Scott Bacon and Elise Archer.
Assessment: Volatile, leaning ALP

 

Franklin:

Incumbent: Julie Collins (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 7 Elections won (1993 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 10.82% against LIB

Electoral History: 1903–1906: Revenue Tariff Party
1906–1909: Anti-Socialist Party
1909–1917: Commonwealth Liberal Party
1917–1920: Nationalist Party
1920–1922: Country Party**
1922–1928: Nationalist Party
1928–1929: IND
1929–1931: ALP
1931–1934: United Australia Party
1934–1946: ALP
1946–1969: LIB
1969–1975: ALP
1975–1993: LIB
1993–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run: 9 Elections won (1946 - 1969) - LIB

State Incumbents: Will Hodgman, Nick McKim, Lara Giddings, David O'Byrne and Jacquie Petrusma.
Assessment: Variable, safe ALP

 

Lyons:

Incumbent: Dick Adams (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 7 Elections won (1993 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 12.29% against LIB

Electoral History: 1984–1993: LIB
1993–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run: 7 Elections won (1993 - Present) - ALP

State Incumbents: Tim Morris, Rene Hidding, Mark Shelton, Michael Polley and Rebecca White.
Assessment: Stable, safe ALP

Northern Territory:

Mining is the driving force behind the economy of the N.T., although tourism is also a major source of income (source). The terriotry has a unicameral government last elected in 2012 and up for reelection in 2016. The NT government contains 25 seats, filled through a full-preference, instant run-off system much like that familiar to all Australians for the Federal lower house.

The Liberal Party, represented in the territory by the CLP, holds 16 of the 25 seats, with Labor retaining 8. The last seat is Independent. The Northern Territory contains 2 federal electoral districts, and as a territory elects only 2 Senators to the Federal Parliament.

Lingiari:

Incumbent: Warren Snowdon (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 4 Elections won (2001 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 3.70% against CLP

Electoral History: 2001–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run: 4 Elections won (2001 - Present) - ALP

State Divisions: Arafura, Araluen, Arnhem, Barkly, Braitling, Daly, Goyder, Greatorex, Katherine, Namatjira, part of Nelson, Nhulunbuy and Stuart.
Assessment: Stable, leaning ALP

 

Solomon:

Incumbent: Natasha Griggs (CLP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 1.75% against ALP

Electoral History: 2001–2007: CLP
2007–2010: ALP
2010–present: CLP

Longest Electoral Run: 2 Elections won (2001 - 2007) - CLP

State Divisions: Blain, Brennan, Casuarina, Drysdale, Fannie Bay, Fong Lim, Johnston, Karama, part of Nelson, Nightcliff, Port Darwin, Sanderson and Wanguri.
Assessment: Volatile, Leaning CLP

Australian Capital Territory:

The economy of the ACT is, of course, largely driven by services to the Federal Government and the other national institutions based in Canberra. The territory has a unicameral government last elected in 2012 and up for reelection in 2016. The ACT government contains 17 members, elected through the Hare-Clark system, similar to Tasmania's Legislative Assembly. These seats are divided into two five-seat and one seven-seat districts.

The Labor and Liberal Parties are both represented by 8 people in the government. The last seat is Greens. The ACT contains 2 federal electoral districts, and as a territory elects only 2 Senators to the Federal Parliament.

Canberra:

Incumbent: Gai Brodtmann (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)
6 Elections won (1996 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 9.15% against LIB

Electoral History: 1974–1975: ALP 
1975–1980: LIB
1980–1995: ALP 
1995–1996: LIB
1996–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run: 6 Elections won (1980-1995) - ALP, (1996 - Present) - ALPState Incumbents: Ginninderra - Yvette Berry, Chris Bourke, Alistair Coe, Vicki Dunne and Mary Porter.
Molonglo - Andrew Barr, Simon Corbell, Steve Doszpot, Katy Gallagher, Jeremy Hanson, Giulia Jones, Shane Rattenbury.
Brindabella - Joy Burch, Mick Gentleman, Zed Seselja (replaced by Nicole Lawder, 2011), Brendan Smyth and Andrew Wall.
Assessment: Stable, very safe ALP

 

Fraser:

Incumbent: Andrew Leigh (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)
15 Elections won (1974 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 14.20% against LIB

Electoral History: 1974–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run: 15 Elections won (1974 - Present) - ALP
State Incumbents: Ginninderra - Yvette Berry, Chris Bourke, Alistair Coe, Vicki Dunne and Mary Porter.
Molonglo - Andrew Barr, Simon Corbell, Steve Doszpot, Katy Gallagher, Jeremy Hanson, Giulia Jones, Shane Rattenbury.Assessment: Stable, very safe ALP

* Although listed in blue as a predecessor of the modern Liberal National Party of Queensland, it is important to note that these parties are break-away groups and originally part of the Labor Party. Thus they cannot be viewed as entirely aligned with the modern Labor or Liberal positions. The same non-equivalence is true -- though to a lesser extent -- with the other, now defunct, historical parties.

** Predecessor of the modern National Party