We Need to Talk Some More About Kevin

I should emphasise that while I believe a September 21 election is the most easily defensible, this does not mean I expect an election then. In the few hours since my last post, I believe I came to understand the nice little political play the Prime Minister is pursuing.

Some conservative sources have suggested that International events like the G20 might be used to boost Mr Rudd's popularity on the world stage - which would require an election post September. However, more left-wing sources report that Rudders is considering using the G20 as a road trip with Abbottsy-Wabottsy if the election is pushed back that far - the logic being not only to signal an end to negative politics but that the future leader should probably be involved in their commitments that the party will be held to.

Also, they get to meet the Putinator and squeal like little fanboys.

Mass-produced, commercial sources agree with these reports.

Now the great thing about politics is that you can make promises with a caviat, and then activate the caviat and still come out smelling like roses. So Rudd can support bipartisanship by offering to take Abbott if the election is pushed back that late, and then not push the election back that late. A pre-G20 election would leave Kevin looking like a co-operative operative, while Tony looks like a beligerent... something that rhymes with ligerent.

The latest date for such an election would be August 31 (the G20 Summit being on September 5-6), however the August 24 date would give the Rudd government (assuming it is elected) a chance to get things rolling before heading off.

An August 24 date would require, at the latest, that the Writs be issued on July 22 (see my discussion or the Constitution and Electoral Act, whichever you consider more authoritative). And this is the key; I believe Mr Rudd will advise an election be called as close as possible to the desired election date. By keeping that secret in the bag, Labor can plan and carry out a measured, well-paced campaign in the months ahead, while the Liberal/National Coalition are forced to operate without knowing the time scale.

One of the reasons I had believed Rudd would not contest the leadership is that we all know the Coalition and its backers have a dozen adds in the drawer ready to go in just such a situation. In reality, though, that is not such a huge issue since Labor know exactly what these adds will be - either endless spools of Gillard ministers roasting Rudd 1.0, or arguing that you cannot trust the ALP when they change their leader every other week (an argument so valuable to them that there was never, ever a chance of Turnbull or any other Liberal challenging Abbott for the leadership and undermining this trump). Labor, therefore, will have two dozen replies equally prepared.

Things get clever, however, when the ALP starts playing the people, not the system. By keeping the election date secret, the ALP is making the Opposition play a guessing game. Do they release their adds at one a week, and risk running out before a late election, or hold back a little and possibly not use all of their powder before an early election?

Now I said that Labor would be criticised for delaying the election significantly, being portrayed as holding on to illegitimate power. So Rudd needs to have at least requested an election before September 14, and probably before mid August when the Writs would need to be issued for September 14. I also said that a delay of one week would probably not elicit this kind of response, however that only applies if the date is known. If the date for the issuing of the Sept. 14 Writs passes without an announcement, even if it only means a one-week delay (elections always being held on a Saturday for practical reasons of voter/staff availability), then the Coalition can begin shouting from the roof tops that the ALP is clawing onto its ill-gotten power. If Rudd then recommends an election for Sept 21 or 28 it looks like he is responding to the Lib/Nats and confirming their accusations, while delaying longer will only ad fuel to the fire.

Rudd must therefore declare an election before Saturday 14/9, and probably before Monday 12/8, but also wants the shortest possible time between announcement and election. And this is why a late August vote is likely (Writs and announcement issued, say, Monday 22/7).

We Need to Talk About Kevin

So apparently in the world of blogs if you promise something, like a potential change to scheduled service, you are expected to deliver. It is a good thing that this rule does not apply in politics, because otherwise political parties might actually need to think about providing realistic and achievable goals and not sneaking in taxes like the GST/Carbon Tax (pick as appropriate to your political position).

Also, we would have a different Prime Minister right now.

Ruddy Mysterious:

To be honest, despite the media hype, I did not expect Rudd to challenge for the leadership. Polling was indicating that a Rudd v Abbott super smack-down would be a 50-50 contest at best/worst for Labor/the Coalition respectively.

Yes, this is what elections look like to me.

Admittedly this was far better/worse for Labor/the Coalition respectively than the Gillard contest, but it means that Rudd is far from certain to rescue the election for the ALP. To me it would make a lot more sense to keep the promise not to challenge a sitting Prime Minister, wait until after the election, take the leadership back in opposition once everybody blamed Gillard for the loss, rebuild the party and make a solid bid for the 2016 election.

I still believe this was Rudd's initial intention when he promised not to challenge a sitting PM. Since then Rudd either decided that Labor would be too badly damaged to bring back to power during his time at the helm, or feared becoming the next Kim Beazley - the guy repeatedly roped in to fix the party in opposition, and then toppled before the election came. Always the bridesmaid, as they say.

I personally had been holding out for another, more spectacular (and highly improbable) scenario: Rudd quits the Labor party and sits back as Abbott and Gillard race to the bottom. Then, as late as possible, Rudd announces his intention to run with a new party. This new party would include sectors of the ALP's left-wing movement more terrified of losing the election than following Rudd, along with people who deserve a shot at running in an election drawn fromthe young Labor movement and people like Ged Kearney. Then, riding a wave of popularity, sympathy and general fed-up-ness with the major parties, the Rudd party outpolls the ALP, picks up their preferences and returns to power. This would require Rudd to actually be the egomaniac the media suggests, willing to grind the Labor party to dust in the road of his unstoppable Rudd-ernaught. It would have been fun to watch, though.

Sadly, 'twas not to be.

(Who am I kidding? Election night will still be

a roller-coaster of thrills for me anyway.)

But When do I Crack Out the Popcorn?

Now that Rudd has been elected, the September election date is in question. Speculators suggest a late August vote is likely, but I disagree that this is the best course of action (EDIT: Considering wider influences I have changed this opinion).

Rudd has three options to call the election (or rather to recommend an election to the Governor-General): to bring it forward, to keep it where it is or to push it back. Bringing the election forward is the favourite at the moment, amid suggestions that Labor's best chance is during the honeymoon period. The liberals are champing at the bit to get a sooner election, but will not hesitate to criticise any earlier date as evidence that Rudd does not have a mandate to run the country and that he may lack the full backing of his party. Also, as discussed here, there is a minimum 33 day wait between the issuing of the writs and the election. That is more than a month, and the honeymoon would be coming to an end.

Next, the election can stay put. This was my assumption until I remembered that this means Australia's entire Jewish community either needed to cast early ballots or vote during Yom Kippur. The coincidence of an election and a Jewish Holiday (Rosh Hashanah) caused a similar issue in Quebec earlier this year. Kevin now has an easy option to avoid this - move the date that Gillard set.

However, delaying the election has its own problems. The Coalition parties will not be happy with this option at all and will ensure this is seen as a doomed party holding power for as long as possible.

Given that all three options will have public-relations issues, I think the best option is to bring the elections forward or push it back one week. One week is probably defensible without looking like weakness or a power grab, whilst accommodating Jewish voters. I feel that a one-week delay - though disappointing for everyone who wants the whole thing done and dusted (not least of all the Coalition parties) - would be the safest in terms of public opinion. It is not easy to accuse the Prime Minister of grasping on to power when we are talking about a 7-day delay. On the other hand, unless Rudd uses his brief window of interest to make some decisive inroads into the Liberal/National popularity ratings, it is going to be an uphill battle. The longer it drags on, the less rapid the rise in popularity needs to be, but it will also prove harder to swing peoples opinions after the next week or two.

In politics, as in retail, people buy with their hearts and then justify their actions. Rudds impressions over the next two or so weeks will determine the majority of the vote regardless of whether we vote in one month or five. Kev needs to convince us that he can lead effectively, that the ALP is united and that the policies (which, it has been confirmed, will not change from the Gillard policies costed for in the Budget) are worth defending.

The clock is ticking.

District Run-Down (3 of 6) - Victoria

Now we flick across the country to Victoria, as I provide my opinion of the baseline nature of each seat. It resembles how the seats might fall in a 50-50 split of the primary vote -- which is far closer to recent polling now that we have a new PM.

      June 15th: South Australia (X)
      June 22nd: Western Australia (X)
June 29th: Victoria
July 6th: Queensland 
July 13th: New South Wales
July 20th: Tasmania, Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory

And so:

Victoria:

The Quaternary sector, including finance and insurance, is the most profitable in the state, although the largest employer is the troubled secondary (manufacturing) sector. Victoria also has a high unemployment rate. (source). The state government, as with most states, is bicameral and based on the Westminster system.

The lower house (Legeslative Assembly) is currently held by the Coalition, with 34 Liberal MPs and 10 Nationals, just outnumbering the 43 ALP members. There is one Independent as of March this year, when Geoff Shaw resigned from the Liberal Party. The seats of the upper house (Legislative Council) are held by 18 Liberal councillors, 16 Labor councillors and three each from the Nationals and the Greens.

The state contains 37 federal electoral districts, and as a state elects 6 Senators to the Federal Parliament.

How to Read These Summaries:

Incumbent: Incumbent lists the current member for the seat and their current party.

Incumbent/Party Run: Incumbent run provides the number of elections won by the current member, and the years of those elections in parentheses. By-elections are ignored.

A second line may be present and indicate the number of elections won by the current member's party, if this is different to the number won by the current member. Again the years of those elections in parentheses, and again by-elections are ignored.

2010 Margin (TPP): This is the margin by which the seat was won after the last redistribution of preferences in the 2010 federal election, and who this margin was against.

Electoral History: A list of previous incumbent parties from the foundation of the seat to the present.

Longest Electoral Run: The most elections won in a row in this seat by one party, with the years of those elections in parentheses and the party which won the seat in those elections.

State Divisions: The state seats within this federal seat. The seat names are coloured according to their current incumbent (blue for Liberal, red for ALP, dark yellow for Nationals and grey for Independents). The last state election was in 2010.

Assessment: An assessment of the seats political history - that is, whether the seat is traditionally of one party or another. This is only approximated from the data here, does not constitute a prediction and may differ from the current incumbent's party.

Aston:

Incumbent: Alan Tudge (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Elections won (2010 - Present)
8 Elections won (1990 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 1.76% against ALP

Electoral History: 1984–1990: ALP
1990–present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run:  8 Elections won (1990 - Present)  - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Bayswater, part of Ferntree Gully, part of Forest Hill, part of Mitcham and part of Scoresby.

Assessment: Stable safe LIB

Ballarat:

Incumbent: Catherine King (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 4 Elections won (2001 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 11.70% against LIB

Electoral History: 1901–1909: Protectionist Party
1909–1913: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1913–1919: ALP
1919–1920: Nationalist Party
1920–1931: ALP
1931–1937: United Australia Party
1937–1949: ALP
1949–1951: LIB
1951–1955: ALP
1955–1980: LIB
1980–1990: ALP
1990–2001: LIB
2001–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  10 Elections won (1955 - 1980) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Ballarat West, part of Ballarat East, part of Melton and part of Ripon.

Assessment: Variable, safe ALP

Batman:

Incumbent: Martin Ferguson (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 6 Elections won (1996 - Present)
17 Elections won (1969 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 7.86% against GRN

Electoral History: 1906–1909: Protectionist Party
1909–1910: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1910–1931: ALP
1931–1934: United Australia Party
1934–1966: ALP
1966–1969: IND
1969–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  17 Elections won (1969 - present) - ALP
Including former Labor turned Independent Sam Benson (1966-1969) 30 Elections won (1934 - present) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Bundoora, part of Northcote, Preston and part of Thomastown

Assessment: Stable, very safe ALP

Bendigo:

Incumbent: Steve Gibbons (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 4 Elections won (2001 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 5.93% against LIB

Electoral History: 1901–1906: Protectionist Party
1906–1909: IND Protectionist Party**
1909–1913: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1913–1917: ALP
1917–1929: Nationalist Party
1929–1931: ALP
1931–1937: United Australia Party
1937–1949: Country Party
1949–1972: ALP
1972–1983: LIB
1983–1990: ALP
1990–1998: LIB
1998–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  9 Elections won (1949–1972) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Ballarat East, part of Bendigo East, part of Bendigo West, part of Macedon, part of Ripon and part of Rodney.

Assessment: Variable, leaning ALP

Bruce:

Incumbent: Alan Griffin (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 5 Elections won (1996 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 8.12% against LIB

Electoral History: 1955–1996: LIB
1996–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  16 Elections won (1955–1996) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Clayton, part of Dandenong, part of Forest Hill, part of Mount Waverly, Mulgrave and part of Scoresby.

Assessment: Variable, leaning ALP

Calwell:

Incumbent: Maria Vamvakinou (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 4 Elections won (2001 - Present)
10 Elections won (1984- Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 19.72% against LIB

Electoral History: 1984–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run: 10 Elections won (1984- Present) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Broadmeadows, part of Macedon and Yuroke.

Assessment: Stable, very safe ALP

Casey:

Incumbent: Tony Smith (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 4 Elections won (2001 - Present)
10 Elections won (1984 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 1.48% against ALP

Electoral History: 1969–1972: LIB
1972–1975: ALP
1975–1983: LIB
1983–1984: ALP
1984–present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run:  10 Elections won (1984 - Present)  - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Evelyn, part of Gembrook, part of Kilsyth, part of Monbulk and part of Warrandyte.

Assessment: Stable, leaning LIB

Chisholm:

Incumbent: Anna Burke (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 5 Elections won (1998 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 6.11% against LIB

Electoral History: 1949–1983: LIB
1983–1987: ALP
1987–1998: LIB
1998–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  14 Elections won (1949 - 1983) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Box Hill, part of Burwood, part of Clayton, part of Mount Waverley and part of Oakleigh.

Assessment: Variable, leaning ALP

Corangamite:

Incumbent: Darren Cheeseman (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 2 Elections won (2007 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 0.41% against LIB

Electoral History: 1901–1903: Protectionist Party
1903–1906: Free Trade Party
1906-1909: Anti-Socialist Party
1909–1910: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1910–1913: ALP
1913–1917: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1917–1918: Nationalist Party
1918–1929: Country Party
1929–1931: ALP
1931–1934: Country Party
1934–1944: United Australia Party
1944–2007: LIB
2007–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  24 Elections won (1944 - 2007) - LIB
Including the preceding UAP, 28 Elections won (1934 - 2007) - UAP/LIB

State Divisions: Part of Ballarat East, part of Bellarine, part of Geelong, part of Polwarth, part of Rippon and South Barwon,.

Assessment: Stable, leaning LIB (a controversial rating, perhaps, given the pro-labor demographic of its state divisions, but it has been conservative since the 30s excluding the 2007 Rudd landslide and the last election, held by less than half of one percent of the votes. I believe this is a reliable LIB win, and that we are at the end of a small, pro-ALP statistical blip that will correct sooner rather than later.)

Corio:

Incumbent: Richard Marles (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 2 Elections won (2007 - Present)
17 Elections won (1967 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 14.22% against LIB

Electoral History: 1901–1909: Protectionist Party
1909–1910: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1910–1913: ALP
1913–1914: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1914–1917: ALP
1917–1929: Nationalist Party
1929–1931: ALP
1931–1940: United Australia Party
1940–1949: ALP
1949–1967: LIB
1967–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  X Elections won 17 Elections won (1967 - Present) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Bellarine, part of Geelong and part of Lara.

Assessment: Stable very safe ALP

Deakin:

Incumbent: Mike Symon (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 2 Elections won (2007 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 2.41% against LIB

Electoral History: 1937–1944: United Australia Party
1944–1983: LIB
1983–1984: ALP
1984–2007: LIB
2007–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run: 15 Elections won (1944 - 1983) - LIB
Including the preceding United Australia Party, 18 Elections won (1937 - 1983) - LIB/UAP

State Divisions: Part of Bayswater, part of Forest Hill, part of Kilsyth, part of Mitcham and part of Warrandyte.

Assessment: Stable, very safe LIB (despite low TPP lead)

Dunkley:

Incumbent: Bruce Billson (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 6 Elections won (1996 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 1.02% against ALP

Electoral History: 1984–1990: ALP
1990–1993: LIB
1993–1996: ALP
1996–present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run:  6 Elections won (1996 - Present) - LIB/ALP

State Divisions: Parts of Carrum, part of Cranbourne, Frankston***, part of Hastings and part of Mornington.

Assessment: Variable, leaning LIB

Flinders:

Incumbent: Greg Hunt (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 4 Elections won (2001 - Present)
10 Elections won (1984 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 9.11% against ALP

Electoral History: 1901–1906: Free Trade Party
1906–1909: Anti-Socialist Party
1909–1917: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1917–1929: Nationalist Party
1929–1931: ALP
1931–1944: United Australia Party
1944–1952: LIB
1952–1954: ALP
1954–1983: LIB
1983–1984: ALP
1984–present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run:  12 Elections won (1954–1983) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Bass, part of Hastings, part of Mornington and Nepean.

Assessment: Stable, safe LIB

Gellibrand:

Incumbent: Nicola Roxin (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 5 Elections won (1998 - Present)
25 Elections won (1949 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 23.90% against LIB

Electoral History: 1949-present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  25 Elections won (1949 - Present) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Altona, part of Footscray and Williamstown.

Assessment: Stable, very safe ALP

Gippsland:

Incumbent: Darren Chester (NAT)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Elections won (2010 - Present)
11 Elections won (1982 - Present)
Including the preceding Country Party and National Country Party, 35 Elections won (1922 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 1.45% against ALP

Electoral History: 1901–1904: Protectionist Party
1904–1906: Anti-Socialist Party
1906–1909: Protectionist Party
1909–1913: IND
1913–1914: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1914–1917: IND
1917–1922: Nationalist Party
1922–1975: Country Party
1975–1982: National Country Party
1982–present: NAT:

Longest Electoral Run:  11 Elections won (1982 - Present) - NAT
Including the preceding Country Party and National Country Party, 35 Elections won (1922 - Present) - NAT/National Country Party/Country Party

State Divisions: Gippsland East, part of Gippsland South and part of Morwell.

Assessment: Stable, very safe NAT (despite low TPP lead)

Goldstein:

Incumbent: Andrew Robb (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 3 Elections won (2004 - Present)
10 Elections won (1984 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 6.47% against ALP

Electoral History: 1984-present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run:  10 Elections won (1984 - Present) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Bentleigh, part of Brighton, part of Caulfield, part of Oakleigh and part of Sandringham.

Assessment: Stable, very safe LIB

Gorton:

Incumbent: Brendan O'Connor (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 3 Elections won (2004 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 22.16% against LIB

Electoral History: 2004-present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  3 Elections won (2004 - 2004) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Derrimut, Keilor, part of Kororoit and part of Niddrie.

Assessment: Very safe ALP (insufficient data to determine stability)

Higgins:

Incumbent: Kelly O'Dwyer (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Elections won (2010 - Present)
25 Elections won (1949 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 6.75% against ALP

Electoral History: 1949-present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run:  25 Elections won (1949 - Present) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Burwood, part of Hawthorn, Malvern, part of Oakleigh and part of Prahran.

Assessment: Stable, very safe LIB

Holt:

Incumbent: Anthony Byrne (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 4 Elections won (2001 - Present)
12 Elections won (1980 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 13.23% against LIB

Electoral History: 1969–1972: LIB
1972–1975: ALP
1975–1980: LIB
1980-present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  12 Elections won (1980 - Present) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Cranbourne, part of Dandenong, part of Lyndhurst, part of Narre Warren North and part of Narre Warren South.

Assessment: Stable, very safe ALP

Hotham:

Incumbent: Simon Crean (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 8 Elections won (1990 - Present)
12 Elections won (1980 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 13.50% against LIB

Electoral History: 1969–1980: LIB
1980–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  12 Elections won (1980 - Present) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Bentleigh, part of Brighton, part of Clayton, part of Lyndhurst, part of Mordialloc, part of Oakleigh and part of Sandringham.

Assessment: Stable, safe ALP

Indi:

Incumbent: Sophie Mirabella (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: X Elections won (2001 - Present)
13 Elections won (1977 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 9.94% against ALP

Electoral History: 1901–1906: Protectionist Party
1904–1909: Anti-Socialist Party 
1909–1910: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1910–1913: ALP
1913–1914: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1914–1917: ALP
1917–1919: Nationalist Party
1919–1928: Country Party
1928–1931: ALP
1931–1937: United Australia Party
1937–1949: Country Party
1949–1958: LIB
1958–1975: Country Party
1975–1977: National Country Party
1977–present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run:  13 Elections won (1977 - Present) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Benalla, Benambra and part of Murray Valley.

Assessment: Stable, very safe LIB

Isaacs:

Incumbent: Mark Dreyfus (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 2 Elections won (2007 - Present)
6 Elections won (1996 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 11.02% against LIB

Electoral History: 1969–1974: LIB
1974–1975: ALP
1975–1980: LIB
1980–1990: ALP
1990–1996: LIB
1996–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  6 Elections won (1996 - Present) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Carrum, part of Cranbourne, part of Dandenong, part of Lyndhurst, part of Mordialloc and part of Sandringham.

Assessment: Variable, safe ALP

Jagajaga:

Incumbent: Jenny Macklin (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 6 Elections won (1996 - Present)
10 Elections won (1984 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 11.52% against LIB

Electoral History: 1984-present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  10 Elections won (1984 - Present) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Bundoora, part of Eltham, part of Ivanhoe and part of Yan Yean.

Assessment: Stable, very safe ALP

Kooyong:

Incumbent: Josh Frydenberg (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)
26 Elections won (1946 - Present)
Including preceding parties, 34 Elections won (1901 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 7.55% against ALP

Electoral History: 1901–1906: Free Trade Party
1906-1909: Anti-Socialist
1909–1917: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1917–1922: Nationalist Party
1922–1925: Liberal Union
1925–1931: Nationalist Party
1931–1944: Unived Australia Party
1944–present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run: 
26 Elections won (1946 - Present) - LIB
Including preceding parties, 34 Elections won (1901 - Present) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Box Hill, part of Burwood, part of Hawthorn and Kew.

Assessment: Stable, very safe LIB

Lalor:

Incumbent: Julia Gillard (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 5 Elections won (1998 - Present)
17 Elections won (1969 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 22.15% against LIB

Electoral History: 1949-1966: ALP
1966-1969: LIB
1969-present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run: 17 Elections won (1969 - Present) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Altona, part of Lara, part of Melton and Tarneit.

Assessment: Stable, very safe ALP

La Trobe:

Incumbent: Laura Smyth (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Elections won (2010 - Present)
2010 Margin (TPP): 0.91% against LIB

Electoral History: 1949–1972: LIB
1972–1975: ALP
1975–1980: LIB
1980–1990: ALP
1990–2010: LIB
2010–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  9 Elections won (1949 - 1972) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Bass, part of Bayswater, part of Ferntree Gully, part of Gembrook, part of Monbulk, part of Narre Warren North and part of Narre Warren South.

Assessment: Volatile, tossup

McEwen:

Incumbent: Rob Mitchell (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Elections won (2010 - Present)
2010 Margin (TPP): 5.32% against LIB

Electoral History: 1984–1990: ALP
1990–1993: LIB
1993–1996: ALP
1996–2010: LIB
2010–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  5 Elections won (1996 - 2010) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Benalla, part of Eltham, part of Gembrook, part of Macedon, Seymour and part of Yan Yean.

Assessment: Volatile, leaning ALP

McMillan:

Incumbent: Russell Broadbent (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 3 Elections won (2004 - Present)
2010 Margin (TPP): 4.41% against ALP

Electoral History: 1949–1955: ALP
1955–1972: LIB
1972–1975: Country Party
1975–1980: LIB
1980–1990: ALP
1990–1993: LIB
1993–1996: ALP
1996–1998: LIB
1998–2004: ALP
2004–present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run:  6 Elections won (1955–1972) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Bass, part of Gembrook, part of Gippsland South, part of Morwell and Narracan.

Assessment: Variable, leaning LIB

Mallee:

Incumbent: John Forrest (NAT)

Incumbent/Party Run: 7 Elections won (1993 - Present)
11 Elections won (1983 - Present) 
Including the preceding National Country Party and Country Party 25 Elections won (1949 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 24.41% against ALP

Electoral History: 1949–1975: Country Party
1975–1982: National Country Party
1982–present: NAT

Longest Electoral Run: 11 Elections won (1982 - Present)
Including the preceeding National Country Party and Country Party 25 Elections won (1949 - Present)

State Divisions: Part of Lowan, Mildura, part of Rodney and part of Swan Hill.

Assessment: Stable, very safe NAT

Maribyrnong:

Incumbent: Bill Shorten (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 2 Elections won (2007 - Present)
17 Elections won (1969 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 16.86% against LIB

Electoral History: 1906–1909: Protectionist Party
1909–1910: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1910–1931: ALP
1931–1934: United Australia Party
1934–1955: ALP
1955–1969: LIB
1969–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  17 Elections won (1969 - Present) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Derrimut, part of Essendon, part of Footscray, part of Kororoit and part of Niddrie.

Assessment: Variable, safe ALP

Melbourne:

Incumbent: Adam Bandt (GRN)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Elections won (2010 - Present)
2010 Margin (TPP): 6.04% against ALP

Electoral History: 1901–1904: Protectionist Party
1904–2010: ALP
2010–present: GRN

Longest Electoral Run:  40 Elections won (1906 - 2010) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Brunswick, part of Essendon, Melbourne, part of Northcote and Richmond.

Assessment: Stable, very safe ALP

Melbourne Ports:

Incumbent: Michael Danby (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 5 Elections won (1998 - Present)
41 Elections won (1906 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 7.56% against LIB

Electoral History: 1901–1906: Protectionist Party
1906–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  41 Elections won (1906 - Present) - ALP

State Divisions: Albert Park, part of Brighton, part of Caulfield, part of Oakleigh and part of Prahran.

Assessment: Stable, very safe ALP

Menzies:

Incumbent: Kevin Andrews (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 7 Elections won (1993 - Present)
10 Elections won (1984 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 8.72% against ALP

Electoral History: 1984–present: LIB
Longest Electoral Run:  10 Elections won (1984 - Present) - LIB

State Divisions: Bulleen, Doncaster, part of Evelyn and part of Warrandyte

Assessment: Stable, very safe LIB

Murray:

Incumbent: Sharman Stone (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 6 Elections won (1996 - Present)
2010 Margin (TPP): 20.35% against ALP

Electoral History: 1949–1975: Country Party
1975–1982: National Country Party
1982–1996: NAT
1996–present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run: 11 Elections won (1949 - 1975) - Country Party
Including following parties, 19 Elections won (1949 - 1996) - NAT/National Country Party/Country Party

State Divisions: Part of Benalla, part of Bendigo East, part of Bendigo West, part of Murray Valley, part of Rodney, Shepparton and part of Swan Hill.

Assessment: Stable, very safe LIB

Scullin:

Incumbent: Harry Jenkins (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 6 Elections won (1996 - Present)
9 Elections won (1987 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 22.25% against LIB

Electoral History: 1986–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  9 Elections won (1987 - Present) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Bundoora, Mill Park, part of Thomastown and part of Yan Yean.

Assessment: Stable, very safe ALP

Wannon:

Incumbent: Dan Tehan (LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Elections won (2010 - Present)
22 Elections won (1955 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 7.29% against ALP

Electoral History: 1901–1906: Free Trade Party
1906–1913: ALP
1913–1917: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1917–1922: Nationalist
1922–1925: ALP
1925–1929: Nationalist
1929–1931: ALP
1931–1940: United Australia Party
1940–1949: ALP
1949–1951: LIB
1951–1955: ALP
1955–present: LIB

Longest Electoral Run:  22 Elections won (1955 - Present) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Lowan, part of Polwarth, part of Ripon and South-West Coast.

Assessment: Stable, very safe LIB

Wills:

Incumbent: Kelvin Thomson (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 6 Elections won (1996 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 22.64% against LIB

Electoral History: 1949–1992: ALP
1992–1996: IND
1996–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  18 Elections won (1949 - 1990) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Broadmeadows, part of Brunswick, part of Essendon, Pascoe Vale and part of Thomastown.

Assessment: Stable, very safe ALP

* Although listed in blue as a predecessor of the modern Liberal party, it is important to note that these parties are break-away groups and originally part of the Labor Party. Thus they cannot be viewed as entirely aligned with the modern Labor or Liberal positions. The same non-equivalence is true -- though to a lesser extent -- with the other, now defunct, historical parties.

** An Independent Labor candidate (for example) is an Independent who will by and large act as, and believes in the same principles as, a Labor candidate. 
For a really good explanation of the insanity that ensues, I recommend Dr Kevin Bonham's post What is an independent liberal, which contains a gem of a discussion about endorsed unendorsed candidates and unendorsed unendorsed candidates.

*** Although now an Independent, Gary Gray won this seat as a Liberal.