Friday, 12 April 2013

Data Dump

This is a supplement to the post above. This does not count towards my limit of one post per week, and should be read in conjunction with the post to which it refers.

Raw Data for Table 1:

Comparison of each candidate's primary vote (as a percentage of all votes) within each electoral division to the national level. Candidates listed in ballot order. This blog does not support any larger version of this image. Click here, then click Options > Download to get the full-size.

While candidates leading the ballot perform better on average than the national primary vote, so does every other candidate. In fact, the average advantage (Advantage = District %Primary Vote - National % Primary Vote) is 3.05 percentage points, while for all candidates the average is 4.06. This general boost to all candidates is probably a result of various division-specific factors, including fewer opponents in some seats, fewer opponents with similar support base and uncontested divisions lowering the National P.V.

Independent and unaffiliated candidates are ignored as there is no meaningful primary vote nationally.

Parties with differing names recognised in the AEC data as the same party (e.g. ALP and Country Labor, The Greens and Australian Greens etc.) share their National Primary vote. Note that the AEC data treat the Liberal Party and Country Liberals as separate parties, and also that the LNQ data cannot be reliably conflated with either the Liberal or National Parties.

Raw Data for Table 3:

Swings to each party in each Electoral District.

Although the net swing in any election should be naught after adjustments for voter turnout (i.e. any lost voter for one party should be a gain for another) very few of the above seats sum to 0. In fact Balarrat (VIC) and Wills (VIC) are the only seats to do so. This is because all of the other seats have some party or independent from 2007 failing to run in 2010.

Swings to Independents are considered unreliable in this instance because new candidates get a swing from 0.00% of the vote, and represents their initial support, not a change in support from the previous elections. This problem is less common among established parties since a change of candidate still allows for swing compared the the previous candidate.

Supplement to Table 3:


Average of swing for parties depending on their position in the ballot's candidate order.
e.g. the ALP suffered an average of 5.07% swing against them in divisions where they placed last on the ballot.

Note that the Communists only ran a single House of Representatives candidate in 2010, and that this candidate was last on the ballot, meaning the All Ballots figure is identical to the Last Place figure.

Removing the Carer's Alliance and Country Liberal values from the All Ballots average (on the grounds that no comparisons can be made) reduced the All Ballots total average to 2.64.

All Ballots total average is 1.28 counting only the parties included in the Last Place count, 0.33 for counting only Second Place and -0.15 for First Place. On this basis, candidates in Last Place candidates received a 1.14 pp greater swing towards them than the average, Second place candidates 2.09 pp and First Place candidates 5.26 pp.

No comments:

Post a Comment