District Run-Down (4 of 6) - Queensland

This post brought to you on the road, traveling with a diehard ALP voter, a staunch LIB voter and a tourist who cannot vote at all. In a serendipitous and timely manner, we now look at Queensland. With 10 'winnable' seats for Labor and 7 'losable', as calculated here by yours truly, some noteworthy observers and I have long speculated that Queensland may just be as important in this election as Western Sydney. The Rudd factor will likely be the biggest in his home state, so when we provide the following assessments in the assumption of a balanced election, this may be the most accurate example of the lot.

      June 15th: South Australia (X)
      June 22nd: Western Australia (X)
      June 29th: Victoria (X)
July 6th: Queensland
July 13th: New South Wales
July 20th: Tasmania, Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory

Queensland:

Queensland's economy is largely driven by tourism, although mining is also a major player (source). It is also the only state to have a unicameral state parliament (i.e. there is only one house). Other potentially relevant facts for the election include that this is the home of both Rudd and Katter, who may do best in this state, and that the Liberal Party and National Party in this state have moved beyond a mere Coalition to form a single party, ingeniously named the Liberal National Party of Queensland, or LNP, or (as the AEC and I prefer) LNQ to distinguish between them and the Liberal and National parties as a federal Coalition.

The last state election was in 2012 when the then-majority Labor party went from 51 seats down to 7 - a loss of 44. With a total of 89 seats in the house, this is one seat shy of an outright majority lost almost exclusively to the LNQ. The LNQ hold 78 seats, while Katter's Australian Party hold 2. The last 2 seats are Independents.

The state contains 30 federal electoral districts, and as a state elects 6 Senators to the Federal Parliament.

How to Read These Summaries:

Incumbent: Incumbent lists the current member for the seat and their current party.

Incumbent/Party Run: Incumbent run provides the number of elections won by the current member, and the years of those elections in parentheses. By-elections are ignored.

A second line may be present and indicate the number of elections won by the current member's party, if this is different to the number won by the current member. Again the years of those elections in parentheses, and again by-elections are ignored.

2010 Margin (TPP): This is the margin by which the seat was won after the last redistribution of preferences in the 2010 federal election, and who this margin was against.

Electoral History: A list of previous incumbent parties from the foundation of the seat to the present.

Longest Electoral Run: The most elections won in a row in this seat by one party, with the years of those elections in parentheses and the party which won the seat in those elections.

State Divisions: The state seats within this federal seat. The seat names are coloured according to their current incumbent (blue for LNQ, red for ALP, pink (yes, pink) for Katter's Australian Party and grey for Independents). The last state election was in 2012.

Assessment: An assessment of the seats political history - that is, whether the seat is traditionally of one party or another. This is only approximated from the data here, does not constitute a prediction and may differ from the current incumbent's party.

 

Blair:

Incumbent: Shayne Neumann (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 2 Elections won (2007 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 4.24% against LNQ

Electoral History: 1998–2007: LIB
2007–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  3 Elections won (1998 - 2007)  - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Bundamba, Ipswich, Ipswich West, part of Lockyer and part of Nanango.
Assessment: Variable, leaning LNQ

 

Bonner:

Incumbent: Ross Vasta (LNQ/LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 2.82% against ALP

Electoral History: 2004–2007: LIB
2007–2010: ALP
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run:  1 Election won (2004 - 2007) LIB, (2007 - 2010) ALP, 2010 - Present) - LNQ

State Divisions: Part of Bulimba, part of Chatsworth, Lytton, part of Mansfield and part of Redcliffe.
Assessment: Volatile, tossup

 

Bowman:

Incumbent: Andrew Laming (LNQ/LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 3 Elections won (2004 - Present)
1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 10.39% against ALP

Electoral History: 1949–1961: LIB
1961–1963: ALP 
1963–1969: LIB
1969–1975: ALP 
1975–1983: LIB
1983–1996: ALP 
1996–1998: LIB
1998–2004: ALP
2004–2010: LIB
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run:  6 Elections won (1983 - 1996)  - ALP

State Divisions: Capalaba, Cleveland, part of Mansfield and part of Redlands.
Assessment: Variable, safe LNQ

 

Brisbane:

Incumbent: Teresa Gambaro (LNQ/LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 1.13% against ALP

Electoral History: 1901–1903: Protectionist Party
1903–1906: ALP
1906–1909: Anti-Socialist Party
1909–1910: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1910–1919: ALP
1919–1931: Nationalist Party
1931–1975: ALP
1975–1980: LIB
1980–2010: ALP
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run:  17 Elections won (1931 - 1975)  - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Ashgrove, Brisbane Central, part of Clayfield, part of Everton, part of Mount Coot-tha and part of Stafford.
Assessment: Stable, tossup

 

Capricornia:

Incumbent: Kirsten Livermore (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 5 Elections won (1998 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 3.68% against LNQ

Electoral History: 1901–1903: IND Free Trade Party**
1903–1906: ALP
1906–1909: Anti-Socialist
1909–1910: Commonwealth Liberal*
1910–1920: ALP
1920–1922: Nationalist
1922–1946: ALP
1946–1961: LIB
1961–1975: ALP
1975–1977: NAT
1977–1996: ALP
1996–1998: NAT
1998–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  7 Elections won (1977 - 1996) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Burdekin, part of Dalrymple, part of Gregory, Keppel, part of Mirani and part of Rockhampton.
Assessment: Variable, leaning LNQ

 

Dawson:

Incumbent: George Cristensen (LNQ/NAT)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Elections won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 2.43% against ALP

Electoral History: 1949–1966: Country Party
1966–1975: ALP
1975–2007: NAT
2007–2010: ALP
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run:  12 Elections won (1975 - 2007) - NAT

State Divisions: Part of Burdekin, Mackay, part of Mirani, part of Mundingburra and part of Whitsunday.
Assessment: Variable, leaning LNQ

 

Dickson:

Incumbent: Peter Dutton (LNQ/LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 4 Elections won (2001 - Present)
1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 5.13% against ALP

Electoral History: 1993–1996: ALP
1996–1998: LIB
1998–2001: ALP
2001–2010: LIB
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run:  3 Elections won (2001 - 2010) - LIB
Including following parties, 4 Elections won (2001 - Present) LNQ/LIB

State Divisions: Part of Everton, part of Ferny Grove, part of Kallangur and part of Pine Rivers.
Assessment: Variable, leaning LNQ

 

Fadden:

Incumbent: Stuart Robert (LNQ/LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 2 Elections won (2007 - Present)
1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 14.19% against ALP

Electoral History: 1977–1983: LIB
1983–1984: ALP
1984–2010: LIB
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run:  9 Elections won (1984 - 2010) - LIB
Including following parties, 10 Elections won (1984 - Present) LNQ/LIB

State Divisions: Part of Albert, Broadwater, part of Coomera, part of Gaven and part of Southport.
Assessment: Stable, safe LNQ

 

Fairfax:

Incumbent: Alexander Somalyay (LNQ/LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 8 Elections won (1990 - Present)
1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 6.95% against ALP

Electoral History: 1984–1990: NAT
1990–2010: LIB
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run: 7 Elections won (1990 - 2010) - LIB
Including the LNQ and all predecessors, 10 Elections (1984 - 2010) - LNQ/LIB/NAT

State Divisions: Buderim, part of Glass House, part of Maroochydore, part of Nicklin and part of Noosa.
Assessment: Stable, very safe LNQ

 

Fisher:

Incumbent: Peter Slipper (IND)***

Incumbent/Party Run: 7 Elections won (1993 - Present)
No election won (Became Independent in 2011)

2010 Margin (TPP): 4.13% LNQ against ALP

Electoral History: 1949–1972: Country Party
1972–1984: Country National Party
1984–1987: NAT
1987–1993: ALP
1993–2010: LIB
2010–2011: LNQ
2011–present: IND

Longest Electoral Run:  9 Elections won (1949 - 1972) - Country Party

Including following parties, 16 Elections won (1949 - 1987) - NAT/National Country Party/Country Party
State Divisions: Part of Caloundra, part of Glass House, Kawana and part of Maroochydore.
Assessment: Variable, safe LNQ

 

Flynn:

Incumbent: Ken O'Dowd (LNQ/NAT)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 3.58% against ALP

Electoral History: 2007-2010: ALP
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run: 1 Election won (2007- 2010) - ALP; (2010 - Present) - LNQ

State Divisions: Part of Burnett, part of Callide, Gladstone, part of Gregory, part of Mirani and part of Rockhampton.
Assessment: Indeterminate.

 

Forde:

Incumbent: Bert van Manen (LNQ/LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 1.63% against ALP

Electoral History: 1984–1987: LIB
1987–1996: ALP
1996–2007: LIB
2007–2010: ALP
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run:  4 Elections won (1996 - 2007) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Albert, part of Algester, part of Coomera, part of Logan, part of Redlands, part of Springwood and part of Waterford.
Assessment: Variable, leaning LNQ

 

Griffith:

Incumbent: Kevin Rudd (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 5 Elections won (1998 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 8.46% against LNQ

Electoral History: 1934–1949: ALP
1949–1954: LIB
1954–1958: ALP
1958–1961: LIB
1961–1966: ALP
1966–1977: LIB
1977–1996: ALP
1996–1998: LIB
1998–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  7 Elections won (1977 - 1996) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Bulimba, part of Chatsworth, part of Greenslopes, part of Mansfield, part of South Brisbane and part of Yeerongpilly.
Assessment: Variable, safe ALP

 

Groom:

Incumbent: Ian Macfarlane (LNQ/LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 5 Elections won (1998 - Present)
1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 18.53% against ALP

Electoral History: 1984–1988: NAT
1988–2010: LIB
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run:  7 Elections won (1990 - Present) - LIB
Including the LNQ and all predecessors, 10 Elections won (1984 - Present) - LNQ/LIB/NAT
State Divisions: Part of Condamine, part of Nanango, Toowoomba North and Toowoomba South.

Assessment: Stable, very safe LNQ

 

Herbert:

Incumbent: Ewen Jones (LNQ/LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 2.17% against ALP

Electoral History: 1901–1916: ALP
1916–1917: National Labor Party*
1917–1928: Nationalist
1928–1958: ALP
1958–1961: LIB
1961–1966: ALP
1966–1983: LIB
1983–1996: ALP
1996–2010: LIB
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run:  12 Elections won (1928 - 1958)  - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Burdekin, part of Hinchinbrook, part of Mundingburra, Townsville and part of Thuringowa.
Assessment: Variable, leaning LNQ

 

Hinkler:

Incumbent: Paul Neville (LNQ/NAT)

Incumbent/Party Run: 7 Elections won (1993 - Present)
1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 10.39% against ALP

Electoral History: 1984–1987: NAT
1987–1993: ALP
1993–2010: NAT
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run:  6 Elections won (1993 - 2010) - NAT

Including the LNQ, 7 Elections won (1993 - 2010) - LNQ/NAT
State Divisions: Bundaberg, part of Burnett, part of Hervey Bay and part of Maryborough.
Assessment: Variable, safe LNQ

 

Kennedy:

Incumbent: Bob Katter (Katter's Australian Party)****

Incumbent/Party Run: 7 Elections won (1993 - Present)
No Elections won (Founded 2011)

2010 Margin (TPP): 18.34% IND against LNQ

Electoral History: 1901–1925: ALP
1925–1929: Nationalist
1929–1966: ALP
1966–1975: Country Party
1975–1982: National Country Party
1982–1990: NAT
1990–1993: ALP
1993–2001: NAT
2001–2011: IND
2011–present: KAT

Longest Electoral Run:  14 Elections won (1929 - 1966) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Burdekin, part of Cook, part of Dalrymple, part of Hinchinbrook, part of Mount Isa, part of Mulgrave and part of Thuringowa.
Assessment: Stable, safe KAT

 

Leichhardt:

Incumbent: Warren Entsch (LNQ/LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 4.55% against ALP

Electoral History: 1949–1951: Country Party
1951–1975: ALP
1975–1983: NAT
1983–1996: ALP
1996–2007: LIB
2007–2010: ALP
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run:  10 Elections won (1951 - 1975) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Barron River, Cairns, part of Cook and part of Mulgrave.
Assessment: Variable, leaning LNQ

 

Lilley:

Incumbent: Wayne Swan (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 5 Elections won (1998 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 3.18% against ALP

Electoral History: 1913–1917: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1917–1931: Nationalist Party
1931–1943: United Australia Party
1943–1949: ALP
1949–1961: LIB
1961–1963: ALP
1963–1972: LIB
1972–1974: ALP
1974–1980: LIB
1980–1996: ALP
1996–1998: LIB
1998–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  6 Elections won (1917 - 1931) - Nationalist Party; (1949 - 1961) - LIB; (1980 - 1996) - ALP
Including preceding and following parties, 12 Elections won (1913 - 1943) - United Australia Party/Commonwealth Liberal Party/Nationalist Party

State Divisions: Part of Aspley, part of Clayfield, part of Everton, Nudgee, part of Sandgate and part of Stafford.
Assessment: Variable, tossup

 

Longman:

Incumbent: Wyatt Roy (LNQ/LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 1.92% against ALP

Electoral History: 1996–2007: LIB
2007–2010: ALP
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run:  4 Elections won (1996 - 2007) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Glass House, part of Kallangur, Morayfield, Pumicestone and Murrumba.
Assessment: Volatile, safe LNQ

 

Maranoa:

Incumbent: Bruce Scott (LNQ/NAT)

Incumbent/Party Run: 8 Elections won (1990 - Present)
1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 22.89% against ALP

Electoral History: 1901–1921: ALP
1921–1940: Country Party
1940–1943: ALP
1943–1975: Country Party
1975-1980: National Country Party
1980–2010: NAT
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run:  14 Elections won (1943 - 1975) - NAT
Including LNQ and all preceding parties, 28 Elections won (1943 - Present) LNQ/NAT/National Country Party/Country Party

State Divisions: Part of Callide, part of Condamine, part of Gregory, part of Mount Isa, part of Nanango, Southern Downs and Warrego.
Assessment: Stable, very safe LNQ

 

McPherson:

Incumbent: Karen Andrews (LNQ/LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 10.28% against ALP

Electoral History: 1949–1972: Country Party
1972–2010: LIB
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run: 15 Elections won (1972 - 2010) - LIB

Including LNQ and all preceding parties, 25 Elections won (1949 - Present) - LNQ/LIB/NAT
State Divisions: Part of Burleigh, Currumbin, part of Mermaid Beach and part of Mudgeeraba.
Assessment: Stable, very safe LNQ

 

Moncrieff:

Incumbent: Steven Ciobo (LNQ/LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 4 Elections won (2001 - Present)
1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 17.49% against ALP

Electoral History: 1984–2010: LIB
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run: 9 Elections won (1984 - 2010) - LIB
Including following parties, 10 Elections won (1984 - Present) - LNQ/LIB 

State Divisions: Part of Burleigh, part of Gaven, part of Mermaid Beach, part of Mudgeeraba part of Southport and Surfers Paradise.
Assessment: Stable, very safe LNQ

 

Moreton:

Incumbent: Graham Prrett (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 2 Elections won (2007 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 1.13% against LNQ

Electoral History: 1901–1904: IND ALP**
1904–1906: ALP
1906–1909: Anti-Socialist Party
1909–1917: Commonwealth Liberal
1917–1931: Nationalist Party
1931–1944: United Australia Party
1944–1990: LIB
1990–1996: ALP
1996–2007: LIB
2007–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run: 18 Elections won (1946 - 1990) - LIB
Including preceding parties, 33 Elections won (1906 - 1990) - LIB/United Australia Party/Nationalist Party/Commonwealth Liberal/Anti-Socialist Party

State Divisions: Part of Inala, part of Indooroopilly, part of Mount Ommaney, part of South Brisbane, part of Stretton, part of Sunnybank and part of Yeerongpilly.
Assessment: Variable, tossup

 

Oxley:

Incumbent: Bernie Ripoll (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 5 Elections won (1998 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 5.77% against LNQ

Electoral History: 1949–1961: LIB
1961-1996: ALP
1996–1998: IND*****
1998–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  14 Elections won (1961 - 1966) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Algester, part of Bundamba, part of Inala, part of Mount Ommaney and part of Sunnybank.
Assessment: Stable, very safe ALP

 

Petrie:

Incumbent: Yvette D'Ath (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 2 Elections won (2007 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 2.51% against LNQ

Electoral History: 1949–1961: LIB
1961–1963: ALP
1963–1983: LIB
1983–1984: ALP
1984–1987: LIB
1987–1996: ALP
1996–2007: LIB
2007–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  8 Elections won (1963 - 1983)  - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Aspley, part of Murrumba, part of Redcliffe and part of Sandgate.
Assessment: Volatile, leaning LNQ

 

Rankin:

Incumbent: Craig Emerson (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 5 Elections won (1998 - Present)
10 Elections won (1984 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 5.41% against LNQ

Electoral History: 1984–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  10 Elections won (1984 - Present) ALP

State Divisions: Part of Algester, part of Logan, part of Springwood, part of Stretton, part of Waterford and Woodridge.
Assessment: Stable, safe ALP

 

Ryan:

Incumbent: Jane Prentice (LNQ/LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 7.16% against ALP

Electoral History: 1949–2010: LIB
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run:  24 Elections won (1949 - 2010) - LIB
Including following parties, 25 Elections won (1949 - Present) - LNQ/LIB

State Divisions: Part of Ashgrove, part of Everton, part of Ferny Grove, part of Indooroopilly, part of Moggill and part of Mount Coot-tha.
Assessment: Stable, very safe LNQ

 

Wide Bay:

Incumbent: Warren Truss (LNQ/NAT)

Incumbent/Party Run: 8 Elections won (1990 - Present)
1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 99% against LNQ/ALP

Electoral History: 1901–1915: ALP
1915–1917: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1917–1928: Nationalist Party
1928–1961: Country Party
1961–1974: ALP
1974–1990: Country National Party
1990–2010: NAT
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run: 13 Elections won (1928 - 1961) - Country Party
Including the LNQ and all preceding parties, 15 Elections won (1974 - Present) - LNQ/NAT/Country National Party

State Divisions: Part of Callide, part of Gympie, part of Hervey Bay, part of Maryborough, part of Nicklin and part of Noosa.
Assessment: Stable, safe LNQ

 

Wright:

Incumbent: Scott Buchholz (LNQ/LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Elections won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 10.15% against ALP

Electoral History: 2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run:  1 Election won (2010 - Present) - LNQ

State Divisions: Part of Albert, part of Algester, Beaudesert, part of Gaven, part of Lockyer, part of Logan and part of Mudgeeraba.
Assessment: Indeterminate.

* Although listed in blue as a predecessor of the modern Liberal National Party of Queensland, it is important to note that these parties are break-away groups and originally part of the Labor Party. Thus they cannot be viewed as entirely aligned with the modern Labor or Liberal positions. The same non-equivalence is true -- though to a lesser extent -- with the other, now defunct, historical parties.

** An Independent Labor candidate (for example) is an Independent who will by and large act as, and believes in the same principles as, a Labor candidate. 
For a really good explanation of the insanity that ensues, I recommend Dr Kevin Bonham's post What is an independent liberal, which contains a gem of a discussion about endorsed unendorsed candidates and unendorsed unendorsed candidates.

*** Although now an Independent, Peter Slipper last won this seat as a Liberal National. Prior to this he was Liberal, and briefly this year he joined Palmers United Party. 

**** Although now leader of Katter's Australia Party, Bob Katter last won this seat as an Independent. Prior to 2001 he was a member of the National Party.  

***** Although famous as leader of One Nation, Pauline Hanson only ever won this seat as an Independent.

We Need to Talk Some More About Kevin

I should emphasise that while I believe a September 21 election is the most easily defensible, this does not mean I expect an election then. In the few hours since my last post, I believe I came to understand the nice little political play the Prime Minister is pursuing.

Some conservative sources have suggested that International events like the G20 might be used to boost Mr Rudd's popularity on the world stage - which would require an election post September. However, more left-wing sources report that Rudders is considering using the G20 as a road trip with Abbottsy-Wabottsy if the election is pushed back that far - the logic being not only to signal an end to negative politics but that the future leader should probably be involved in their commitments that the party will be held to.

Also, they get to meet the Putinator and squeal like little fanboys.

Mass-produced, commercial sources agree with these reports.

Now the great thing about politics is that you can make promises with a caviat, and then activate the caviat and still come out smelling like roses. So Rudd can support bipartisanship by offering to take Abbott if the election is pushed back that late, and then not push the election back that late. A pre-G20 election would leave Kevin looking like a co-operative operative, while Tony looks like a beligerent... something that rhymes with ligerent.

The latest date for such an election would be August 31 (the G20 Summit being on September 5-6), however the August 24 date would give the Rudd government (assuming it is elected) a chance to get things rolling before heading off.

An August 24 date would require, at the latest, that the Writs be issued on July 22 (see my discussion or the Constitution and Electoral Act, whichever you consider more authoritative). And this is the key; I believe Mr Rudd will advise an election be called as close as possible to the desired election date. By keeping that secret in the bag, Labor can plan and carry out a measured, well-paced campaign in the months ahead, while the Liberal/National Coalition are forced to operate without knowing the time scale.

One of the reasons I had believed Rudd would not contest the leadership is that we all know the Coalition and its backers have a dozen adds in the drawer ready to go in just such a situation. In reality, though, that is not such a huge issue since Labor know exactly what these adds will be - either endless spools of Gillard ministers roasting Rudd 1.0, or arguing that you cannot trust the ALP when they change their leader every other week (an argument so valuable to them that there was never, ever a chance of Turnbull or any other Liberal challenging Abbott for the leadership and undermining this trump). Labor, therefore, will have two dozen replies equally prepared.

Things get clever, however, when the ALP starts playing the people, not the system. By keeping the election date secret, the ALP is making the Opposition play a guessing game. Do they release their adds at one a week, and risk running out before a late election, or hold back a little and possibly not use all of their powder before an early election?

Now I said that Labor would be criticised for delaying the election significantly, being portrayed as holding on to illegitimate power. So Rudd needs to have at least requested an election before September 14, and probably before mid August when the Writs would need to be issued for September 14. I also said that a delay of one week would probably not elicit this kind of response, however that only applies if the date is known. If the date for the issuing of the Sept. 14 Writs passes without an announcement, even if it only means a one-week delay (elections always being held on a Saturday for practical reasons of voter/staff availability), then the Coalition can begin shouting from the roof tops that the ALP is clawing onto its ill-gotten power. If Rudd then recommends an election for Sept 21 or 28 it looks like he is responding to the Lib/Nats and confirming their accusations, while delaying longer will only ad fuel to the fire.

Rudd must therefore declare an election before Saturday 14/9, and probably before Monday 12/8, but also wants the shortest possible time between announcement and election. And this is why a late August vote is likely (Writs and announcement issued, say, Monday 22/7).

We Need to Talk About Kevin

So apparently in the world of blogs if you promise something, like a potential change to scheduled service, you are expected to deliver. It is a good thing that this rule does not apply in politics, because otherwise political parties might actually need to think about providing realistic and achievable goals and not sneaking in taxes like the GST/Carbon Tax (pick as appropriate to your political position).

Also, we would have a different Prime Minister right now.

Ruddy Mysterious:

To be honest, despite the media hype, I did not expect Rudd to challenge for the leadership. Polling was indicating that a Rudd v Abbott super smack-down would be a 50-50 contest at best/worst for Labor/the Coalition respectively.

Yes, this is what elections look like to me.

Admittedly this was far better/worse for Labor/the Coalition respectively than the Gillard contest, but it means that Rudd is far from certain to rescue the election for the ALP. To me it would make a lot more sense to keep the promise not to challenge a sitting Prime Minister, wait until after the election, take the leadership back in opposition once everybody blamed Gillard for the loss, rebuild the party and make a solid bid for the 2016 election.

I still believe this was Rudd's initial intention when he promised not to challenge a sitting PM. Since then Rudd either decided that Labor would be too badly damaged to bring back to power during his time at the helm, or feared becoming the next Kim Beazley - the guy repeatedly roped in to fix the party in opposition, and then toppled before the election came. Always the bridesmaid, as they say.

I personally had been holding out for another, more spectacular (and highly improbable) scenario: Rudd quits the Labor party and sits back as Abbott and Gillard race to the bottom. Then, as late as possible, Rudd announces his intention to run with a new party. This new party would include sectors of the ALP's left-wing movement more terrified of losing the election than following Rudd, along with people who deserve a shot at running in an election drawn fromthe young Labor movement and people like Ged Kearney. Then, riding a wave of popularity, sympathy and general fed-up-ness with the major parties, the Rudd party outpolls the ALP, picks up their preferences and returns to power. This would require Rudd to actually be the egomaniac the media suggests, willing to grind the Labor party to dust in the road of his unstoppable Rudd-ernaught. It would have been fun to watch, though.

Sadly, 'twas not to be.

(Who am I kidding? Election night will still be

a roller-coaster of thrills for me anyway.)

But When do I Crack Out the Popcorn?

Now that Rudd has been elected, the September election date is in question. Speculators suggest a late August vote is likely, but I disagree that this is the best course of action (EDIT: Considering wider influences I have changed this opinion).

Rudd has three options to call the election (or rather to recommend an election to the Governor-General): to bring it forward, to keep it where it is or to push it back. Bringing the election forward is the favourite at the moment, amid suggestions that Labor's best chance is during the honeymoon period. The liberals are champing at the bit to get a sooner election, but will not hesitate to criticise any earlier date as evidence that Rudd does not have a mandate to run the country and that he may lack the full backing of his party. Also, as discussed here, there is a minimum 33 day wait between the issuing of the writs and the election. That is more than a month, and the honeymoon would be coming to an end.

Next, the election can stay put. This was my assumption until I remembered that this means Australia's entire Jewish community either needed to cast early ballots or vote during Yom Kippur. The coincidence of an election and a Jewish Holiday (Rosh Hashanah) caused a similar issue in Quebec earlier this year. Kevin now has an easy option to avoid this - move the date that Gillard set.

However, delaying the election has its own problems. The Coalition parties will not be happy with this option at all and will ensure this is seen as a doomed party holding power for as long as possible.

Given that all three options will have public-relations issues, I think the best option is to bring the elections forward or push it back one week. One week is probably defensible without looking like weakness or a power grab, whilst accommodating Jewish voters. I feel that a one-week delay - though disappointing for everyone who wants the whole thing done and dusted (not least of all the Coalition parties) - would be the safest in terms of public opinion. It is not easy to accuse the Prime Minister of grasping on to power when we are talking about a 7-day delay. On the other hand, unless Rudd uses his brief window of interest to make some decisive inroads into the Liberal/National popularity ratings, it is going to be an uphill battle. The longer it drags on, the less rapid the rise in popularity needs to be, but it will also prove harder to swing peoples opinions after the next week or two.

In politics, as in retail, people buy with their hearts and then justify their actions. Rudds impressions over the next two or so weeks will determine the majority of the vote regardless of whether we vote in one month or five. Kev needs to convince us that he can lead effectively, that the ALP is united and that the policies (which, it has been confirmed, will not change from the Gillard policies costed for in the Budget) are worth defending.

The clock is ticking.