District Run-Down (4 of 6) - Queensland

This post brought to you on the road, traveling with a diehard ALP voter, a staunch LIB voter and a tourist who cannot vote at all. In a serendipitous and timely manner, we now look at Queensland. With 10 'winnable' seats for Labor and 7 'losable', as calculated here by yours truly, some noteworthy observers and I have long speculated that Queensland may just be as important in this election as Western Sydney. The Rudd factor will likely be the biggest in his home state, so when we provide the following assessments in the assumption of a balanced election, this may be the most accurate example of the lot.

      June 15th: South Australia (X)
      June 22nd: Western Australia (X)
      June 29th: Victoria (X)
July 6th: Queensland
July 13th: New South Wales
July 20th: Tasmania, Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory

Queensland:

Queensland's economy is largely driven by tourism, although mining is also a major player (source). It is also the only state to have a unicameral state parliament (i.e. there is only one house). Other potentially relevant facts for the election include that this is the home of both Rudd and Katter, who may do best in this state, and that the Liberal Party and National Party in this state have moved beyond a mere Coalition to form a single party, ingeniously named the Liberal National Party of Queensland, or LNP, or (as the AEC and I prefer) LNQ to distinguish between them and the Liberal and National parties as a federal Coalition.

The last state election was in 2012 when the then-majority Labor party went from 51 seats down to 7 - a loss of 44. With a total of 89 seats in the house, this is one seat shy of an outright majority lost almost exclusively to the LNQ. The LNQ hold 78 seats, while Katter's Australian Party hold 2. The last 2 seats are Independents.

The state contains 30 federal electoral districts, and as a state elects 6 Senators to the Federal Parliament.

How to Read These Summaries:

Incumbent: Incumbent lists the current member for the seat and their current party.

Incumbent/Party Run: Incumbent run provides the number of elections won by the current member, and the years of those elections in parentheses. By-elections are ignored.

A second line may be present and indicate the number of elections won by the current member's party, if this is different to the number won by the current member. Again the years of those elections in parentheses, and again by-elections are ignored.

2010 Margin (TPP): This is the margin by which the seat was won after the last redistribution of preferences in the 2010 federal election, and who this margin was against.

Electoral History: A list of previous incumbent parties from the foundation of the seat to the present.

Longest Electoral Run: The most elections won in a row in this seat by one party, with the years of those elections in parentheses and the party which won the seat in those elections.

State Divisions: The state seats within this federal seat. The seat names are coloured according to their current incumbent (blue for LNQ, red for ALP, pink (yes, pink) for Katter's Australian Party and grey for Independents). The last state election was in 2012.

Assessment: An assessment of the seats political history - that is, whether the seat is traditionally of one party or another. This is only approximated from the data here, does not constitute a prediction and may differ from the current incumbent's party.

 

Blair:

Incumbent: Shayne Neumann (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 2 Elections won (2007 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 4.24% against LNQ

Electoral History: 1998–2007: LIB
2007–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  3 Elections won (1998 - 2007)  - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Bundamba, Ipswich, Ipswich West, part of Lockyer and part of Nanango.
Assessment: Variable, leaning LNQ

 

Bonner:

Incumbent: Ross Vasta (LNQ/LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 2.82% against ALP

Electoral History: 2004–2007: LIB
2007–2010: ALP
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run:  1 Election won (2004 - 2007) LIB, (2007 - 2010) ALP, 2010 - Present) - LNQ

State Divisions: Part of Bulimba, part of Chatsworth, Lytton, part of Mansfield and part of Redcliffe.
Assessment: Volatile, tossup

 

Bowman:

Incumbent: Andrew Laming (LNQ/LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 3 Elections won (2004 - Present)
1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 10.39% against ALP

Electoral History: 1949–1961: LIB
1961–1963: ALP 
1963–1969: LIB
1969–1975: ALP 
1975–1983: LIB
1983–1996: ALP 
1996–1998: LIB
1998–2004: ALP
2004–2010: LIB
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run:  6 Elections won (1983 - 1996)  - ALP

State Divisions: Capalaba, Cleveland, part of Mansfield and part of Redlands.
Assessment: Variable, safe LNQ

 

Brisbane:

Incumbent: Teresa Gambaro (LNQ/LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 1.13% against ALP

Electoral History: 1901–1903: Protectionist Party
1903–1906: ALP
1906–1909: Anti-Socialist Party
1909–1910: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1910–1919: ALP
1919–1931: Nationalist Party
1931–1975: ALP
1975–1980: LIB
1980–2010: ALP
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run:  17 Elections won (1931 - 1975)  - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Ashgrove, Brisbane Central, part of Clayfield, part of Everton, part of Mount Coot-tha and part of Stafford.
Assessment: Stable, tossup

 

Capricornia:

Incumbent: Kirsten Livermore (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 5 Elections won (1998 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 3.68% against LNQ

Electoral History: 1901–1903: IND Free Trade Party**
1903–1906: ALP
1906–1909: Anti-Socialist
1909–1910: Commonwealth Liberal*
1910–1920: ALP
1920–1922: Nationalist
1922–1946: ALP
1946–1961: LIB
1961–1975: ALP
1975–1977: NAT
1977–1996: ALP
1996–1998: NAT
1998–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  7 Elections won (1977 - 1996) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Burdekin, part of Dalrymple, part of Gregory, Keppel, part of Mirani and part of Rockhampton.
Assessment: Variable, leaning LNQ

 

Dawson:

Incumbent: George Cristensen (LNQ/NAT)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Elections won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 2.43% against ALP

Electoral History: 1949–1966: Country Party
1966–1975: ALP
1975–2007: NAT
2007–2010: ALP
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run:  12 Elections won (1975 - 2007) - NAT

State Divisions: Part of Burdekin, Mackay, part of Mirani, part of Mundingburra and part of Whitsunday.
Assessment: Variable, leaning LNQ

 

Dickson:

Incumbent: Peter Dutton (LNQ/LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 4 Elections won (2001 - Present)
1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 5.13% against ALP

Electoral History: 1993–1996: ALP
1996–1998: LIB
1998–2001: ALP
2001–2010: LIB
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run:  3 Elections won (2001 - 2010) - LIB
Including following parties, 4 Elections won (2001 - Present) LNQ/LIB

State Divisions: Part of Everton, part of Ferny Grove, part of Kallangur and part of Pine Rivers.
Assessment: Variable, leaning LNQ

 

Fadden:

Incumbent: Stuart Robert (LNQ/LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 2 Elections won (2007 - Present)
1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 14.19% against ALP

Electoral History: 1977–1983: LIB
1983–1984: ALP
1984–2010: LIB
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run:  9 Elections won (1984 - 2010) - LIB
Including following parties, 10 Elections won (1984 - Present) LNQ/LIB

State Divisions: Part of Albert, Broadwater, part of Coomera, part of Gaven and part of Southport.
Assessment: Stable, safe LNQ

 

Fairfax:

Incumbent: Alexander Somalyay (LNQ/LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 8 Elections won (1990 - Present)
1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 6.95% against ALP

Electoral History: 1984–1990: NAT
1990–2010: LIB
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run: 7 Elections won (1990 - 2010) - LIB
Including the LNQ and all predecessors, 10 Elections (1984 - 2010) - LNQ/LIB/NAT

State Divisions: Buderim, part of Glass House, part of Maroochydore, part of Nicklin and part of Noosa.
Assessment: Stable, very safe LNQ

 

Fisher:

Incumbent: Peter Slipper (IND)***

Incumbent/Party Run: 7 Elections won (1993 - Present)
No election won (Became Independent in 2011)

2010 Margin (TPP): 4.13% LNQ against ALP

Electoral History: 1949–1972: Country Party
1972–1984: Country National Party
1984–1987: NAT
1987–1993: ALP
1993–2010: LIB
2010–2011: LNQ
2011–present: IND

Longest Electoral Run:  9 Elections won (1949 - 1972) - Country Party

Including following parties, 16 Elections won (1949 - 1987) - NAT/National Country Party/Country Party
State Divisions: Part of Caloundra, part of Glass House, Kawana and part of Maroochydore.
Assessment: Variable, safe LNQ

 

Flynn:

Incumbent: Ken O'Dowd (LNQ/NAT)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 3.58% against ALP

Electoral History: 2007-2010: ALP
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run: 1 Election won (2007- 2010) - ALP; (2010 - Present) - LNQ

State Divisions: Part of Burnett, part of Callide, Gladstone, part of Gregory, part of Mirani and part of Rockhampton.
Assessment: Indeterminate.

 

Forde:

Incumbent: Bert van Manen (LNQ/LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 1.63% against ALP

Electoral History: 1984–1987: LIB
1987–1996: ALP
1996–2007: LIB
2007–2010: ALP
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run:  4 Elections won (1996 - 2007) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Albert, part of Algester, part of Coomera, part of Logan, part of Redlands, part of Springwood and part of Waterford.
Assessment: Variable, leaning LNQ

 

Griffith:

Incumbent: Kevin Rudd (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 5 Elections won (1998 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 8.46% against LNQ

Electoral History: 1934–1949: ALP
1949–1954: LIB
1954–1958: ALP
1958–1961: LIB
1961–1966: ALP
1966–1977: LIB
1977–1996: ALP
1996–1998: LIB
1998–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  7 Elections won (1977 - 1996) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Bulimba, part of Chatsworth, part of Greenslopes, part of Mansfield, part of South Brisbane and part of Yeerongpilly.
Assessment: Variable, safe ALP

 

Groom:

Incumbent: Ian Macfarlane (LNQ/LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 5 Elections won (1998 - Present)
1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 18.53% against ALP

Electoral History: 1984–1988: NAT
1988–2010: LIB
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run:  7 Elections won (1990 - Present) - LIB
Including the LNQ and all predecessors, 10 Elections won (1984 - Present) - LNQ/LIB/NAT
State Divisions: Part of Condamine, part of Nanango, Toowoomba North and Toowoomba South.

Assessment: Stable, very safe LNQ

 

Herbert:

Incumbent: Ewen Jones (LNQ/LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 2.17% against ALP

Electoral History: 1901–1916: ALP
1916–1917: National Labor Party*
1917–1928: Nationalist
1928–1958: ALP
1958–1961: LIB
1961–1966: ALP
1966–1983: LIB
1983–1996: ALP
1996–2010: LIB
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run:  12 Elections won (1928 - 1958)  - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Burdekin, part of Hinchinbrook, part of Mundingburra, Townsville and part of Thuringowa.
Assessment: Variable, leaning LNQ

 

Hinkler:

Incumbent: Paul Neville (LNQ/NAT)

Incumbent/Party Run: 7 Elections won (1993 - Present)
1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 10.39% against ALP

Electoral History: 1984–1987: NAT
1987–1993: ALP
1993–2010: NAT
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run:  6 Elections won (1993 - 2010) - NAT

Including the LNQ, 7 Elections won (1993 - 2010) - LNQ/NAT
State Divisions: Bundaberg, part of Burnett, part of Hervey Bay and part of Maryborough.
Assessment: Variable, safe LNQ

 

Kennedy:

Incumbent: Bob Katter (Katter's Australian Party)****

Incumbent/Party Run: 7 Elections won (1993 - Present)
No Elections won (Founded 2011)

2010 Margin (TPP): 18.34% IND against LNQ

Electoral History: 1901–1925: ALP
1925–1929: Nationalist
1929–1966: ALP
1966–1975: Country Party
1975–1982: National Country Party
1982–1990: NAT
1990–1993: ALP
1993–2001: NAT
2001–2011: IND
2011–present: KAT

Longest Electoral Run:  14 Elections won (1929 - 1966) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Burdekin, part of Cook, part of Dalrymple, part of Hinchinbrook, part of Mount Isa, part of Mulgrave and part of Thuringowa.
Assessment: Stable, safe KAT

 

Leichhardt:

Incumbent: Warren Entsch (LNQ/LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 4.55% against ALP

Electoral History: 1949–1951: Country Party
1951–1975: ALP
1975–1983: NAT
1983–1996: ALP
1996–2007: LIB
2007–2010: ALP
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run:  10 Elections won (1951 - 1975) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Barron River, Cairns, part of Cook and part of Mulgrave.
Assessment: Variable, leaning LNQ

 

Lilley:

Incumbent: Wayne Swan (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 5 Elections won (1998 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 3.18% against ALP

Electoral History: 1913–1917: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1917–1931: Nationalist Party
1931–1943: United Australia Party
1943–1949: ALP
1949–1961: LIB
1961–1963: ALP
1963–1972: LIB
1972–1974: ALP
1974–1980: LIB
1980–1996: ALP
1996–1998: LIB
1998–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  6 Elections won (1917 - 1931) - Nationalist Party; (1949 - 1961) - LIB; (1980 - 1996) - ALP
Including preceding and following parties, 12 Elections won (1913 - 1943) - United Australia Party/Commonwealth Liberal Party/Nationalist Party

State Divisions: Part of Aspley, part of Clayfield, part of Everton, Nudgee, part of Sandgate and part of Stafford.
Assessment: Variable, tossup

 

Longman:

Incumbent: Wyatt Roy (LNQ/LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 1.92% against ALP

Electoral History: 1996–2007: LIB
2007–2010: ALP
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run:  4 Elections won (1996 - 2007) - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Glass House, part of Kallangur, Morayfield, Pumicestone and Murrumba.
Assessment: Volatile, safe LNQ

 

Maranoa:

Incumbent: Bruce Scott (LNQ/NAT)

Incumbent/Party Run: 8 Elections won (1990 - Present)
1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 22.89% against ALP

Electoral History: 1901–1921: ALP
1921–1940: Country Party
1940–1943: ALP
1943–1975: Country Party
1975-1980: National Country Party
1980–2010: NAT
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run:  14 Elections won (1943 - 1975) - NAT
Including LNQ and all preceding parties, 28 Elections won (1943 - Present) LNQ/NAT/National Country Party/Country Party

State Divisions: Part of Callide, part of Condamine, part of Gregory, part of Mount Isa, part of Nanango, Southern Downs and Warrego.
Assessment: Stable, very safe LNQ

 

McPherson:

Incumbent: Karen Andrews (LNQ/LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 10.28% against ALP

Electoral History: 1949–1972: Country Party
1972–2010: LIB
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run: 15 Elections won (1972 - 2010) - LIB

Including LNQ and all preceding parties, 25 Elections won (1949 - Present) - LNQ/LIB/NAT
State Divisions: Part of Burleigh, Currumbin, part of Mermaid Beach and part of Mudgeeraba.
Assessment: Stable, very safe LNQ

 

Moncrieff:

Incumbent: Steven Ciobo (LNQ/LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 4 Elections won (2001 - Present)
1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 17.49% against ALP

Electoral History: 1984–2010: LIB
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run: 9 Elections won (1984 - 2010) - LIB
Including following parties, 10 Elections won (1984 - Present) - LNQ/LIB 

State Divisions: Part of Burleigh, part of Gaven, part of Mermaid Beach, part of Mudgeeraba part of Southport and Surfers Paradise.
Assessment: Stable, very safe LNQ

 

Moreton:

Incumbent: Graham Prrett (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 2 Elections won (2007 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 1.13% against LNQ

Electoral History: 1901–1904: IND ALP**
1904–1906: ALP
1906–1909: Anti-Socialist Party
1909–1917: Commonwealth Liberal
1917–1931: Nationalist Party
1931–1944: United Australia Party
1944–1990: LIB
1990–1996: ALP
1996–2007: LIB
2007–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run: 18 Elections won (1946 - 1990) - LIB
Including preceding parties, 33 Elections won (1906 - 1990) - LIB/United Australia Party/Nationalist Party/Commonwealth Liberal/Anti-Socialist Party

State Divisions: Part of Inala, part of Indooroopilly, part of Mount Ommaney, part of South Brisbane, part of Stretton, part of Sunnybank and part of Yeerongpilly.
Assessment: Variable, tossup

 

Oxley:

Incumbent: Bernie Ripoll (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 5 Elections won (1998 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 5.77% against LNQ

Electoral History: 1949–1961: LIB
1961-1996: ALP
1996–1998: IND*****
1998–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  14 Elections won (1961 - 1966) - ALP

State Divisions: Part of Algester, part of Bundamba, part of Inala, part of Mount Ommaney and part of Sunnybank.
Assessment: Stable, very safe ALP

 

Petrie:

Incumbent: Yvette D'Ath (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 2 Elections won (2007 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 2.51% against LNQ

Electoral History: 1949–1961: LIB
1961–1963: ALP
1963–1983: LIB
1983–1984: ALP
1984–1987: LIB
1987–1996: ALP
1996–2007: LIB
2007–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  8 Elections won (1963 - 1983)  - LIB

State Divisions: Part of Aspley, part of Murrumba, part of Redcliffe and part of Sandgate.
Assessment: Volatile, leaning LNQ

 

Rankin:

Incumbent: Craig Emerson (ALP)

Incumbent/Party Run: 5 Elections won (1998 - Present)
10 Elections won (1984 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 5.41% against LNQ

Electoral History: 1984–present: ALP

Longest Electoral Run:  10 Elections won (1984 - Present) ALP

State Divisions: Part of Algester, part of Logan, part of Springwood, part of Stretton, part of Waterford and Woodridge.
Assessment: Stable, safe ALP

 

Ryan:

Incumbent: Jane Prentice (LNQ/LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 7.16% against ALP

Electoral History: 1949–2010: LIB
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run:  24 Elections won (1949 - 2010) - LIB
Including following parties, 25 Elections won (1949 - Present) - LNQ/LIB

State Divisions: Part of Ashgrove, part of Everton, part of Ferny Grove, part of Indooroopilly, part of Moggill and part of Mount Coot-tha.
Assessment: Stable, very safe LNQ

 

Wide Bay:

Incumbent: Warren Truss (LNQ/NAT)

Incumbent/Party Run: 8 Elections won (1990 - Present)
1 Election won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 99% against LNQ/ALP

Electoral History: 1901–1915: ALP
1915–1917: Commonwealth Liberal Party*
1917–1928: Nationalist Party
1928–1961: Country Party
1961–1974: ALP
1974–1990: Country National Party
1990–2010: NAT
2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run: 13 Elections won (1928 - 1961) - Country Party
Including the LNQ and all preceding parties, 15 Elections won (1974 - Present) - LNQ/NAT/Country National Party

State Divisions: Part of Callide, part of Gympie, part of Hervey Bay, part of Maryborough, part of Nicklin and part of Noosa.
Assessment: Stable, safe LNQ

 

Wright:

Incumbent: Scott Buchholz (LNQ/LIB)

Incumbent/Party Run: 1 Elections won (2010 - Present)

2010 Margin (TPP): 10.15% against ALP

Electoral History: 2010–present: LNQ

Longest Electoral Run:  1 Election won (2010 - Present) - LNQ

State Divisions: Part of Albert, part of Algester, Beaudesert, part of Gaven, part of Lockyer, part of Logan and part of Mudgeeraba.
Assessment: Indeterminate.

* Although listed in blue as a predecessor of the modern Liberal National Party of Queensland, it is important to note that these parties are break-away groups and originally part of the Labor Party. Thus they cannot be viewed as entirely aligned with the modern Labor or Liberal positions. The same non-equivalence is true -- though to a lesser extent -- with the other, now defunct, historical parties.

** An Independent Labor candidate (for example) is an Independent who will by and large act as, and believes in the same principles as, a Labor candidate. 
For a really good explanation of the insanity that ensues, I recommend Dr Kevin Bonham's post What is an independent liberal, which contains a gem of a discussion about endorsed unendorsed candidates and unendorsed unendorsed candidates.

*** Although now an Independent, Peter Slipper last won this seat as a Liberal National. Prior to this he was Liberal, and briefly this year he joined Palmers United Party. 

**** Although now leader of Katter's Australia Party, Bob Katter last won this seat as an Independent. Prior to 2001 he was a member of the National Party.  

***** Although famous as leader of One Nation, Pauline Hanson only ever won this seat as an Independent.