The predictions for ‘Super Saturday’ do not allow my normal broad-brushed mathematical approach because each one needs to be considered separately. Mayo is almost universally expected to be a Liberal v Centre Alliance contest, rather than focussing on the ALP as a major contender elsewhere. In both WA contests, the Liberals are not contesting the seats, depriving us of polling data and leaving us with the task of calculating which candidate represents the main opposition to the ALP candidates. Braddon and Longman do have polls available with Labor and the Libs leading respectively, but both within the margin of error.
Mayo
Mayo is the easiest to predict by far (which invites yet another layer of egg on my face if I’m wrong) since we have rather decisive polling. On first preferences, Ms Sharkie, for the Centre Alliance, has 47% of the vote to the Liberals’ 35% and ALP’s 9%. This is roughly a margin of error away from victory on first preferences. The ABC has noted that last election 86% of Greens preferences and 80% of the ALP’s flowed to Ms Sharkie over the Libs. If similar numbers hold in this election Ms Sharkie will win the seat and as the ABC pointed out the ALP’s how to vote card favours Ms Sharkie, unlike in 2016, possibly making the flows even stronger.
Liberals’ only hope was for the ALP to outpoll the Centre Alliance; although ALP preferences flow overwhelmingly to Ms Sharkie it is almost certain that the reverse will not hold true anywhere near as strongly and the 3rd place for the CA would probably push the Libs over the line.
On these numbers there is no real need for further examination; I would need a very strong reason to doubt such clear-cut polling and I do not have one.
Western Australia
Fremantle has seven candidates to choose from. After the ALP the Greens are the most prominent option but their left-of-Labor position makes them an unlikely repository for would-be-Liberal votes. The AJP may suffer similar problems as well as a justified perception that they are a single-issue party. This leaves the Australian Christians, LibDems, Australian People’s Party and an independent.
The AC are conservative enough to absorb some hardcore conservatives, the LibDems have the appeal of diverse free-market platforms though progressive views on some social issues may hinder them, the APP is more centrist but may appeal to the less extreme Liberal voters, and Mr Spanbroek is running on an anti-ALP platform.
Ultimately my guess for the ALP’s rival candidate depends on voter engagement. Informed voters who would have voted for the Liberals are most likely to be drawn to the Independent in my opinion, while less attentive electors may confuse the LibDems with the Libs. That being said, on the Facebook pages that we used for the party profiles the LibDems have 522 likes and540 followers to the Independent’s 88 likes and 92 follows. On those numbers, the LibDems are more popular with informed voters too.
The practical reality, of course, is that the traditional Lib vote will be divided several ways. While this is not the catastrophe it would be under a first-past-the-post system where spoiler candidates can be devastating, it seems certain that we will see several candidates drop out (with a few direct or indirect votes flowing to the ALP) before we even have an obvious rival emerge. It is also worth noting that in 2016 Fremantle had an ALP primary vote of 41% with another 18% for the Greens and that the last time the ‘Liberals’ held the seat was 1934—about a decade before the Liberal Party was founded. (The candidate, William Watson, was therefore actually a member of the Lib’s prior incarnation the United Australia Party). For this reason, I would expect an ALP win Freo comfortably, but with the LibDems as their rival party.
Perth is tighter, with a 2016 primary vote of 42% to the Libs vs the ALP’s 37% and Greens’ 17%, and a liberal candidate in the seat as recently as 1983. Replacing the Libs in this 15-horse race will, in my opinion, be one of the three independents. Mr Grayden is positioning himself as the true Liberal in the seat, Mr Collins has run as a Liberal in at least one previous state election and Mr Britza has served as a somewhat-well-known former Liberal MP in state parliament. For simplicity, we will simply call the most successful of these the IND opponent to the ALP, and I would expect strong preference flows between the candidates’ supporters making it a matter of luck which becomes the de facto Lib replacement.
Braddon and Longman
Considered the two closest races on Super Saturday, Braddon and Longman are expected to be ALP v Coalition contests and are therefore follow normal polling practices. The latest Braddon poll at the time of writing has the ALP ahead on 2-party terms at 52%, and with undecided voters tending to prefer Labor over Liberal. The previous poll had the Libs winning at 54%. It is worth remembering that the margin of error on these polls is usually around 2-3 percentage points nationally, and seat polling is far less reliable. Additionally, this polling will be 2 weeks old on polling day.
Longman has five polls published so far: four have had the LNP narrowly ahead, the other calling the election a dead heat.
Predictions:
Braddon
The polling suggests an ALP will win, but with large inaccuracies typical in this kind of polling and a very mixed electoral history (the last time a party held the seat more than 6 years ended in the 90s), this would be a prime candidate for a tossup. It is true that by-elections on average favour the opposition party, but this can vary greatly. It is also true that It has been roughly a century since a sitting government won a by-election from the opposition, but that is because most by-elections have been in safe seats and the requisite 2.2% swing is well within the norm.
I noticed that the candidates’ Facebook pages have the Libs’ Brett Whiteley far ahead of the ALP’s Justine Keay in terms of likes, but this is represented in the polling by the higher primary vote; this seat will be won on preferences and probably will not be called on Saturday night. THAT is my honest prediction, but for the sake of throwing my hat in the betting ring, I will narrowly back the ALP now, subject to change if more up-to-date polling is produced.
Fremantle
Freo is one of those urbanised, traditionally working-class rusted-on ALP seats. It has been in Labor hands since John Curtin, the WWII era Prime Minister, won the seat in 1934. In other words, when the ALP took control of this seat, Hitler had been Fuhrer of Germany for about a month, Elvis hadn’t been born and the world had not yet witnessed the invention of the drink can, Monopoly or the Liberal Party. On those facts alone one would be tempted to say Labor has to be the favourite, but obviously, every good run has to end eventually.
Labor holds the seat with an 8% margin, generally recognised as ‘safe’, there is no Liberal party candidate (so while traditional coalition voters will vote elsewhere, the seat has not had the highly funded campaigning seen in Braddon, Longman and Mayo), and because of the citizenship situation the ALP candidate has (unusually for a by-election) the advantage of also being the incumbent. I’m happy on those facts, without any maths this time, to predict an ALP win here.
Longman
Historically mixed but with an obvious coalition lean, Longman is only held by a 1% margin by the ALP. As with Braddon, the fact that this would be the first government win of a seat from the opposition at a by-election since 1920 means nothing when the swing required is so narrow. Polling, though unreliable, is consistent in its suggestion of a narrow coalition win, with the latest numbers showing the LNP ahead on first preferences and the dominant 3rd party being the conservative-leaning One Nation. Longman will also come down to preferences and the result may not be known for several days, but unless more recent numbers emerge I am leaning towards an LNP win (despite the military medal controversy) which the coalition will trumpet as a major victory and sign of support for the Turnbull government as a historic break from the pattern of governments losing by-elections.
Mayo
Polling here is pretty conclusive. The Centre Alliance’s Rebekah Sharkie should hold onto this traditionally safe Liberal seat with ease.
Perth
Another inner-city traditional ALP seat, Perth is only held by 3% and could realistically fall this election. The absence of an endorsed Liberal candidate, however, leaves the conservative primary vote split across a number of minor parties and independents. Independents Grayden and Britza, in particular, will probably benefit as de facto Liberal candidates and on name recognition alone I think Britza is the one to watch. (Anyone with local knowledge of the attitudes in the seat, feel free to correct me here). The absence of a single conservative focus or dedicated coalition campaign funds will probably hurt the right-wing vote, with the ALP holding the seat.
TL;DR:
My predictions are:
- Braddon: Tossup, nominally ALP.
- Secondary prediction: result unknown on election night, resolved around mid-week (~ Wednesday)
- Fremantle: ALP
- Longman: Tossup, nominally LNP
- Secondary prediction: result unknown on election night, resolved around mid-week (~ Thursday)
- Tertiary prediction: an LNP win in Longman (or a Lib win in Braddon) will be framed generally as a failure of the ALP and a glowing endorsement of the current government regardless of the results in the other seats. The 98-year drought of governments winning by-elections from oppositions will be cited as proof that the coalition is the real winner of Super Saturday even if they walk away with only one win.
- Mayo: Centre Alliance
- Perth: ALP
- Secondary prediction: Ian Britza (IND) emerges as the two-party competitor for the seat.
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