Predictions! Predictions!

So, this election campaign has been a long one, and somehow I've managed to deliver basically nothing. At the very least, I need to put out some predictions -- the other tweaking and experimental stuff will keep for a while.

I'm changing things up, this year, though. I'm not keeping track of my success rate any more - I'm enjoying dabbling in too many unique votes like Brexit, and keep running predictions that "don't count". So screw the tally, lets just go for accuracy as best we can. And that means no more tossups. I'll take a punt on everything now.

Lets start with the basic margin-swing analysis. Here are all of the seats and their margins:

Adelaide	ALP	4.0%
Aston	LIB	8.2%
Ballarat	ALP	4.9%
Banks	LIB	2.6%
Barker	LIB	16.6%
Barton	ALP	4.4%
Bass	LIB	4.0%
Batman	ALP	10.6% v GRN
Bendigo	ALP	1.3%
Bennelong	LIB	7.8%
Berowra	LIB	19.0%
Blair	ALP	5.3%
Blaxland	ALP	11.2%
Bonner	LNP	3.7%
Boothby	LIB	7.1%
Bowman	LNP	8.9%
Braddon	LIB	2.6%
Bradfield	LIB	20.9%
Brand	ALP	3.7%
Brisbane	LNP	4.3%
Bruce	ALP	1.8%
Burt	LIB	6.1%
Calare	NAT	15.0%
Calwell	ALP	13.9%
Canberra	ALP	7.4%
Canning	LIB	11.3%
Capricornia	LNP	0.8%
Casey	LIB	7.2%
Chifley	ALP	10.9%
Chisholm	ALP	1.6%
Cook	LIB	15.8%
Corangamite	LIB	3.9%
Corio	ALP	7.8%
Cowan	LIB	4.5%
Cowper	NAT	13.2%
Cunningham	ALP	11.3%
Curtin	LIB	18.2%
Dawson	LNP	7.6%
Deakin	LIB	3.2%
Denison	IND	15.5% v ALP
Dickson	LNP	6.7%
Dobell	ALP	0.2%
Dunkley	LIB	5.6%
Durack	LIB	3.9% v NAT
Eden-Monaro	LIB	2.9%
Fadden	LNP	14.4%
Fairfax	PUP	0.03% v LNP
Farrer	LIB	21.8%
Fenner	ALP	12.5%
Fisher	LNP	9.8%
Flinders	LIB	11.8%
Flynn	LNP	6.5%
Forde	LNP	4.4%
Forrest	LIB	14.0%
Fowler	ALP	12.9%
Franklin	ALP	5.1%
Fremantle	ALP	5.4%
Gellibrand	ALP	16.5%
Gilmore	LIB	3.8%
Gippsland	NAT	15.8%
Goldstein	LIB	11.0%
Gorton	ALP	16.1%
Grayndler	ALP	18.8%
Greenway	ALP	3.0%
Grey	LIB	13.5%
Griffith	ALP	3.0%
Groom	LNP	16.5%
Hasluck	LIB	6.0%
Herbert	LNP	6.2%
Higgins	LIB	9.9%
Hindmarsh	LIB	1.9%
Hinkler	LNP	9.0%
Holt	ALP	9.1%
Hotham	ALP	7.3%
Hughes	LIB	11.8%
Hume	LIB	13.6%
Hunter	ALP	5.7%
Indi	IND	0.3% v LIB
Isaacs	ALP	3.9%
Jagajaga	ALP	3.1%
Kennedy	KAP	2.2% v LNP
Kingsford Smith	ALP	2.7%
Kingston	ALP	9.7%
Kooyong	LIB	11.1%
La Trobe	LIB	4.0%
Lalor	ALP	12.2%
Leichhardt	LNP	5.7%
Lilley	ALP	1.3%
Lindsay	LIB	3.0%
Lingiari	ALP	0.9%
Longman	LNP	6.9%
Lyne	NAT	13.6%
Lyons	LIB	1.2%
Macarthur	LIB	3.3%
Mackellar	LIB	18.8%
Macquarie	LIB	4.5%
Makin	ALP	5.1%
Mallee	NAT	23.7%
Maranoa	LNP	22.3%
Maribyrnong	ALP	11.4%
Mayo	LIB	12.5%
McEwen	ALP	0.2%
McMahon	ALP	4.6%
McMillan	LIB	11.8%
McPherson	LNP	13.0%
Melbourne	GRN	5.3% v ALP
Melbourne Ports	ALP	3.6%
Menzies	LIB	14.5%
Mitchell	LIB	21.4%
Moncrieff	LNP	18.0%
Moore	LIB	12.4%
Moreton	ALP	1.6%
Murray	LIB	20.9%
New England	NAT	19.6%
Newcastle	ALP	9.4%
North Sydney	LIB	15.7%
O'Connor	LIB	0.9% v NAT
Oxley	ALP	3.8%
Page	NAT	3.1%
Parkes	NAT	19.9%
Parramatta	ALP	1.3%
Paterson	ALP	0.4%
Pearce	LIB	9.3%
Perth	ALP	2.2%
Petrie	LNP	0.5%
Port Adelaide	ALP	14.0%
Rankin	ALP	4.8%
Reid	LIB	3.4%
Richmond	ALP	1.6%
Riverina	NAT	19.0%
Robertson	LIB	3.1%
Ryan	LNP	8.5%
Scullin	ALP	14.4%
Shortland	ALP	7.4%
Solomon	CLP	1.4%
Stirling	LIB	9.0%
Sturt	LIB	10.1%
Swan	LIB	7.3%
Sydney	ALP	12.9%
Tangney	LIB	13.0%
Wakefield	ALP	3.4%
Wannon	LIB	10.1%
Warringah	LIB	15.3%
Watson	ALP	8.9%
Wentworth	LIB	18.9%
Werriwa	ALP	6.5%
Whitlam	ALP	6.9%
Wide Bay	LNP	13.2%
Wills	ALP	15.2% v GRN
Wright	LNP	11.8%

Source: http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2016/03/2016-federal-election-pendulum-update.html

Now, the latest 2pp polling is:

Coalition: 51%
ALP: 49%

Compared to the actual results in 2013, which were:

Coalition: 53.5%
ALP: 46.5%

That makes a 2.5% swing to the ALP, which applied to all seats gives:

Adelaide	ALP	4.0%	6.5%
Aston	LIB	8.2%	5.7%
Ballarat	ALP	4.9%	7.4%
Banks	LIB	2.6%	0.1%
Barker	LIB	16.6%	14.1%
Barton	ALP	4.4%	6.9%
Bass	LIB	4.0%	1.5%
Batman	ALP	10.6% v GRN	N/A
Bendigo	ALP	1.3%	3.8%
Bennelong	LIB	7.8%	5.3%
Berowra	LIB	19.0%	16.5%
Blair	ALP	5.3%	7.8%
Blaxland	ALP	11.2%	13.7%
Bonner	LNP	3.7%	1.2%
Boothby	LIB	7.1%	4.6%
Bowman	LNP	8.9%	6.4%
Braddon	LIB	2.6%	0.1%
Bradfield	LIB	20.9%	18.4%
Brand	ALP	3.7%	6.2%
Brisbane	LNP	4.3%	1.8%
Bruce	ALP	1.8%	4.3%
Burt	LIB	6.1%	3.6%
Calare	NAT	15.0%	12.5%
Calwell	ALP	13.9%	16.4%
Canberra	ALP	7.4%	9.9%
Canning	LIB	11.3%	8.8%
Capricornia	LNP	0.8%	1.7%
Casey	LIB	7.2%	4.7%
Chifley	ALP	10.9%	13.4%
Chisholm	ALP	1.6%	4.1%
Cook	LIB	15.8%	13.3%
Corangamite	LIB	3.9%	1.4%
Corio	ALP	7.8%	10.3%
Cowan	LIB	4.5%	2.0%
Cowper	NAT	13.2%	10.7%
Cunningham	ALP	11.3%	13.8%
Curtin	LIB	18.2%	15.7%
Dawson	LNP	7.6%	5.1%
Deakin	LIB	3.2%	0.7%
Denison	IND	15.5% v ALP	N/A
Dickson	LNP	6.7%	4.2%
Dobell	ALP	0.2%	2.7%
Dunkley	LIB	5.6%	3.1%
Durack	LIB	3.9% v NAT	N/A
Eden-Monaro	LIB	2.9%	0.4%
Fadden	LNP	14.4%	11.9%
Fairfax	PUP	0.03% v LNP	N/A
Farrer	LIB	21.8%	19.3%
Fenner	ALP	12.5%	15.0%
Fisher	LNP	9.8%	7.3%
Flinders	LIB	11.8%	9.3%
Flynn	LNP	6.5%	4.0%
Forde	LNP	4.4%	1.9%
Forrest	LIB	14.0%	11.5%
Fowler	ALP	12.9%	15.4%
Franklin	ALP	5.1%	7.6%
Fremantle	ALP	5.4%	7.9%
Gellibrand	ALP	16.5%	19.0%
Gilmore	LIB	3.8%	1.3%
Gippsland	NAT	15.8%	13.3%
Goldstein	LIB	11.0%	8.5%
Gorton	ALP	16.1%	18.6%
Grayndler	ALP	18.8%	21.3%
Greenway	ALP	3.0%	5.5%
Grey	LIB	13.5%	11.0%
Griffith	ALP	3.0%	5.5%
Groom	LNP	16.5%	14.0%
Hasluck	LIB	6.0%	3.5%
Herbert	LNP	6.2%	3.7%
Higgins	LIB	9.9%	7.4%
Hindmarsh	LIB	1.9%	0.6%
Hinkler	LNP	9.0%	6.5%
Holt	ALP	9.1%	11.6%
Hotham	ALP	7.3%	9.8%
Hughes	LIB	11.8%	9.3%
Hume	LIB	13.6%	11.1%
Hunter	ALP	5.7%	8.2%
Indi	IND	0.3% v LIB	N/A
Isaacs	ALP	3.9%	6.4%
Jagajaga	ALP	3.1%	5.6%
Kennedy	KAP	2.2% v LNP	N/A
Kingsford Smith	ALP	2.7%	5.2%
Kingston	ALP	9.7%	12.2%
Kooyong	LIB	11.1%	8.6%
La Trobe	LIB	4.0%	1.5%
Lalor	ALP	12.2%	14.7%
Leichhardt	LNP	5.7%	3.2%
Lilley	ALP	1.3%	3.8%
Lindsay	LIB	3.0%	0.5%
Lingiari	ALP	0.9%	3.4%
Longman	LNP	6.9%	4.4%
Lyne	NAT	13.6%	11.1%
Lyons	LIB	1.2%	1.3%
Macarthur	LIB	3.3%	0.8%
Mackellar	LIB	18.8%	16.3%
Macquarie	LIB	4.5%	2.0%
Makin	ALP	5.1%	7.6%
Mallee	NAT	23.7%	21.2%
Maranoa	LNP	22.3%	19.8%
Maribyrnong	ALP	11.4%	13.9%
Mayo	LIB	12.5%	10.0%
McEwen	ALP	0.2%	2.7%
McMahon	ALP	4.6%	7.1%
McMillan	LIB	11.8%	9.3%
McPherson	LNP	13.0%	10.5%
Melbourne	GRN	5.3% v ALP	N/A
Melbourne Ports	ALP	3.6%	6.1%
Menzies	LIB	14.5%	12.0%
Mitchell	LIB	21.4%	18.9%
Moncrieff	LNP	18.0%	15.5%
Moore	LIB	12.4%	9.9%
Moreton	ALP	1.6%	4.1%
Murray	LIB	20.9%	18.4%
New England	NAT	19.6%	17.1%
Newcastle	ALP	9.4%	11.9%
North Sydney	LIB	15.7%	13.2%
O'Connor	LIB	0.9% v NAT	N/A
Oxley	ALP	3.8%	6.3%
Page	NAT	3.1%	0.6%
Parkes	NAT	19.9%	17.4%
Parramatta	ALP	1.3%	3.8%
Paterson	ALP	0.4%	2.9%
Pearce	LIB	9.3%	6.8%
Perth	ALP	2.2%	4.7%
Petrie	LNP	0.5%	2.0%
Port Adelaide	ALP	14.0%	16.5%
Rankin	ALP	4.8%	7.3%
Reid	LIB	3.4%	0.9%
Richmond	ALP	1.6%	4.1%
Riverina	NAT	19.0%	16.5%
Robertson	LIB	3.1%	0.6%
Ryan	LNP	8.5%	6.0%
Scullin	ALP	14.4%	16.9%
Shortland	ALP	7.4%	9.9%
Solomon	CLP	1.4%	1.1%
Stirling	LIB	9.0%	6.5%
Sturt	LIB	10.1%	7.6%
Swan	LIB	7.3%	4.8%
Sydney	ALP	12.9%	15.4%
Tangney	LIB	13.0%	10.5%
Wakefield	ALP	3.4%	5.9%
Wannon	LIB	10.1%	7.6%
Warringah	LIB	15.3%	12.8%
Watson	ALP	8.9%	11.4%
Wentworth	LIB	18.9%	16.4%
Werriwa	ALP	6.5%	9.0%
Whitlam	ALP	6.9%	9.4%
Wide Bay	LNP	13.2%	10.7%
Wills	ALP	15.2% v GRN	N/A
Wright	LNP	11.8%	9.3%

That leaves 9 seats not covered, due to not being Coalition v ALP contests:

Batman
Denison
Durack
Fairfax
Indi
Kennedy
Melbourne
O'Connor
Wills

Palmer is bowing out of Fairfax, and his approval in that seat is famously low. Since his contest was v LNP, I'm giving them that seat.

Durack and O'Connor are intra-Coalition contests, and thus almost guaranteed to stay with the Coalition under one party or the other. It's hard to call without data on NAT polling, but the LNP has been urging Coalition supporters to vote Liberal over minor parties to avoid a hung parliament. While this doesn't really apply to the NATs it might sway a few conservatives to back blue over yellow. I predict Coalition holding these seats.

Batman has the ALP at 10.6% vs the Greens, and Wills has 15.2% ALP v GRN. With both parties increasing their national primary vote by a couple of %, and such safe margins, ALP should hold these seats.

Denison is 15.5% IND vs ALP. There's no applicability of national polling in such a race, but seal-wide polling suggests - as would such a large margin, that Andrew Wilkie will be returned. Indi is much closer at IND 0.3% v LIB, and I have no seat polling for this one. That said, the hit to Coalition numbers, though small, may manifest as IND support in this seat. Tentatively predicting Indi to be held by Cathy McGowan. Kennedy has been safe Katter territory since 1966, excluding a single election in 1990 between Katter Sr and Katter Jr. And Katter's 2.2% is v the LNP, which should lose some support anyhow. Katter will hold this seat.

And that just leaves Melbourne, GRN 5.3% v ALP. Again, both parties have improved their national vote a little, and I have no local polling. I'm going to call this a GRN retain.

Adelaide	ALP	4.0%	6.5%
Aston	LIB	8.2%	5.7%
Ballarat	ALP	4.9%	7.4%
Banks	LIB	2.6%	0.1%
Barker	LIB	16.6%	14.1%
Barton	ALP	4.4%	6.9%
Bass	LIB	4.0%	1.5%
Batman	ALP	10.6% v GRN	N/A
Bendigo	ALP	1.3%	3.8%
Bennelong	LIB	7.8%	5.3%
Berowra	LIB	19.0%	16.5%
Blair	ALP	5.3%	7.8%
Blaxland	ALP	11.2%	13.7%
Bonner	LNP	3.7%	1.2%
Boothby	LIB	7.1%	4.6%
Bowman	LNP	8.9%	6.4%
Braddon	LIB	2.6%	0.1%
Bradfield	LIB	20.9%	18.4%
Brand	ALP	3.7%	6.2%
Brisbane	LNP	4.3%	1.8%
Bruce	ALP	1.8%	4.3%
Burt	LIB	6.1%	3.6%
Calare	NAT	15.0%	12.5%
Calwell	ALP	13.9%	16.4%
Canberra	ALP	7.4%	9.9%
Canning	LIB	11.3%	8.8%
Capricornia	LNP	0.8%	1.7%
Casey	LIB	7.2%	4.7%
Chifley	ALP	10.9%	13.4%
Chisholm	ALP	1.6%	4.1%
Cook	LIB	15.8%	13.3%
Corangamite	LIB	3.9%	1.4%
Corio	ALP	7.8%	10.3%
Cowan	LIB	4.5%	2.0%
Cowper	NAT	13.2%	10.7%
Cunningham	ALP	11.3%	13.8%
Curtin	LIB	18.2%	15.7%
Dawson	LNP	7.6%	5.1%
Deakin	LIB	3.2%	0.7%
Denison	IND	15.5% v ALP	N/A
Dickson	LNP	6.7%	4.2%
Dobell	ALP	0.2%	2.7%
Dunkley	LIB	5.6%	3.1%
Durack	LIB	3.9% v NAT	N/A
Eden-Monaro	LIB	2.9%	0.4%
Fadden	LNP	14.4%	11.9%
Fairfax	PUP	0.03% v LNP	N/A
Farrer	LIB	21.8%	19.3%
Fenner	ALP	12.5%	15.0%
Fisher	LNP	9.8%	7.3%
Flinders	LIB	11.8%	9.3%
Flynn	LNP	6.5%	4.0%
Forde	LNP	4.4%	1.9%
Forrest	LIB	14.0%	11.5%
Fowler	ALP	12.9%	15.4%
Franklin	ALP	5.1%	7.6%
Fremantle	ALP	5.4%	7.9%
Gellibrand	ALP	16.5%	19.0%
Gilmore	LIB	3.8%	1.3%
Gippsland	NAT	15.8%	13.3%
Goldstein	LIB	11.0%	8.5%
Gorton	ALP	16.1%	18.6%
Grayndler	ALP	18.8%	21.3%
Greenway	ALP	3.0%	5.5%
Grey	LIB	13.5%	11.0%
Griffith	ALP	3.0%	5.5%
Groom	LNP	16.5%	14.0%
Hasluck	LIB	6.0%	3.5%
Herbert	LNP	6.2%	3.7%
Higgins	LIB	9.9%	7.4%
Hindmarsh	LIB	1.9%	0.6%
Hinkler	LNP	9.0%	6.5%
Holt	ALP	9.1%	11.6%
Hotham	ALP	7.3%	9.8%
Hughes	LIB	11.8%	9.3%
Hume	LIB	13.6%	11.1%
Hunter	ALP	5.7%	8.2%
Indi	IND	0.3% v LIB	N/A
Isaacs	ALP	3.9%	6.4%
Jagajaga	ALP	3.1%	5.6%
Kennedy	KAP	2.2% v LNP	N/A
Kingsford Smith	ALP	2.7%	5.2%
Kingston	ALP	9.7%	12.2%
Kooyong	LIB	11.1%	8.6%
La Trobe	LIB	4.0%	1.5%
Lalor	ALP	12.2%	14.7%
Leichhardt	LNP	5.7%	3.2%
Lilley	ALP	1.3%	3.8%
Lindsay	LIB	3.0%	0.5%
Lingiari	ALP	0.9%	3.4%
Longman	LNP	6.9%	4.4%
Lyne	NAT	13.6%	11.1%
Lyons	LIB	1.2%	1.3%
Macarthur	LIB	3.3%	0.8%
Mackellar	LIB	18.8%	16.3%
Macquarie	LIB	4.5%	2.0%
Makin	ALP	5.1%	7.6%
Mallee	NAT	23.7%	21.2%
Maranoa	LNP	22.3%	19.8%
Maribyrnong	ALP	11.4%	13.9%
Mayo	LIB	12.5%	10.0%
McEwen	ALP	0.2%	2.7%
McMahon	ALP	4.6%	7.1%
McMillan	LIB	11.8%	9.3%
McPherson	LNP	13.0%	10.5%
Melbourne	GRN	5.3% v ALP	N/A
Melbourne Ports	ALP	3.6%	6.1%
Menzies	LIB	14.5%	12.0%
Mitchell	LIB	21.4%	18.9%
Moncrieff	LNP	18.0%	15.5%
Moore	LIB	12.4%	9.9%
Moreton	ALP	1.6%	4.1%
Murray	LIB	20.9%	18.4%
New England	NAT	19.6%	17.1%
Newcastle	ALP	9.4%	11.9%
North Sydney	LIB	15.7%	13.2%
O'Connor	LIB	0.9% v NAT	N/A
Oxley	ALP	3.8%	6.3%
Page	NAT	3.1%	0.6%
Parkes	NAT	19.9%	17.4%
Parramatta	ALP	1.3%	3.8%
Paterson	ALP	0.4%	2.9%
Pearce	LIB	9.3%	6.8%
Perth	ALP	2.2%	4.7%
Petrie	LNP	0.5%	2.0%
Port Adelaide	ALP	14.0%	16.5%
Rankin	ALP	4.8%	7.3%
Reid	LIB	3.4%	0.9%
Richmond	ALP	1.6%	4.1%
Riverina	NAT	19.0%	16.5%
Robertson	LIB	3.1%	0.6%
Ryan	LNP	8.5%	6.0%
Scullin	ALP	14.4%	16.9%
Shortland	ALP	7.4%	9.9%
Solomon	CLP	1.4%	1.1%
Stirling	LIB	9.0%	6.5%
Sturt	LIB	10.1%	7.6%
Swan	LIB	7.3%	4.8%
Sydney	ALP	12.9%	15.4%
Tangney	LIB	13.0%	10.5%
Wakefield	ALP	3.4%	5.9%
Wannon	LIB	10.1%	7.6%
Warringah	LIB	15.3%	12.8%
Watson	ALP	8.9%	11.4%
Wentworth	LIB	18.9%	16.4%
Werriwa	ALP	6.5%	9.0%
Whitlam	ALP	6.9%	9.4%
Wide Bay	LNP	13.2%	10.7%
Wills	ALP	15.2% v GRN	N/A
Wright	LNP	11.8%	9.3%

So that's the simple prediction. ALP gains 5 seats, all from the Coalition, and the Coalition gains one from PUP for LIB/NAT 84, ALP 62, Other 4 - a clear Coalition majority.

Local Polling

I mentioned the individual seat polling, which can be found here for seats the media has, at times, taken an interest in. I've added an extra column for the most recent seat polling (or, where the most recent poll was a tie, the most recent un-tied poll. These seats are marked with an *)

Adelaide	ALP	4.0%	6.5%	LIB
Aston	LIB	8.2%	5.7%
Ballarat	ALP	4.9%	7.4%
Banks	LIB	2.6%	0.1%	LIB
Barker	LIB	16.6%	14.1%	NXT
Barton	ALP	4.4%	6.9%
Bass	LIB	4.0%	1.5%	LIB*
Batman	ALP	10.6% v GRN	N/A	GRN
Bendigo	ALP	1.3%	3.8%
Bennelong	LIB	7.8%	5.3%
Berowra	LIB	19.0%	16.5%
Blair	ALP	5.3%	7.8%
Blaxland	ALP	11.2%	13.7%
Bonner	LNP	3.7%	1.2%	LNP
Boothby	LIB	7.1%	4.6%	LIB
Bowman	LNP	8.9%	6.4%
Braddon	LIB	2.6%	0.1%	LIB*
Bradfield	LIB	20.9%	18.4%
Brand	ALP	3.7%	6.2%
Brisbane	LNP	4.3%	1.8%	LNP
Bruce	ALP	1.8%	4.3%	ALP
Burt	LIB	6.1%	3.6%	ALP
Calare	NAT	15.0%	12.5%
Calwell	ALP	13.9%	16.4%
Canberra	ALP	7.4%	9.9%
Canning	LIB	11.3%	8.8%
Capricornia	LNP	0.8%	1.7%	ALP
Casey	LIB	7.2%	4.7%
Chifley	ALP	10.9%	13.4%
Chisholm	ALP	1.6%	4.1%
Cook	LIB	15.8%	13.3%
Corangamite	LIB	3.9%	1.4%	LIB
Corio	ALP	7.8%	10.3%
Cowan	LIB	4.5%	2.0%	ALP*
Cowper	NAT	13.2%	10.7%	NAT
Cunningham	ALP	11.3%	13.8%
Curtin	LIB	18.2%	15.7%
Dawson	LNP	7.6%	5.1%
Deakin	LIB	3.2%	0.7%	LIB
Denison	IND	15.5% v ALP	N/A	IND
Dickson	LNP	6.7%	4.2%
Dobell	ALP	0.2%	2.7%	LIB
Dunkley	LIB	5.6%	3.1%	LIB
Durack	LIB	3.9% v NAT	N/A
Eden-Monaro	LIB	2.9%	0.4%	ALP
Fadden	LNP	14.4%	11.9%
Fairfax	PUP	0.03% v LNP	N/A
Farrer	LIB	21.8%	19.3%
Fenner	ALP	12.5%	15.0%
Fisher	LNP	9.8%	7.3%
Flinders	LIB	11.8%	9.3%
Flynn	LNP	6.5%	4.0%
Forde	LNP	4.4%	1.9%
Forrest	LIB	14.0%	11.5%
Fowler	ALP	12.9%	15.4%
Franklin	ALP	5.1%	7.6%	ALP
Fremantle	ALP	5.4%	7.9%
Gellibrand	ALP	16.5%	19.0%
Gilmore	LIB	3.8%	1.3%	LIB
Gippsland	NAT	15.8%	13.3%
Goldstein	LIB	11.0%	8.5%
Gorton	ALP	16.1%	18.6%
Grayndler	ALP	18.8%	21.3%
Greenway	ALP	3.0%	5.5%
Grey	LIB	13.5%	11.0%	NXT
Griffith	ALP	3.0%	5.5%	ALP
Groom	LNP	16.5%	14.0%
Hasluck	LIB	6.0%	3.5%	LIB*
Herbert	LNP	6.2%	3.7%	LNP
Higgins	LIB	9.9%	7.4%	LIB
Hindmarsh	LIB	1.9%	0.6%
Hinkler	LNP	9.0%	6.5%
Holt	ALP	9.1%	11.6%
Hotham	ALP	7.3%	9.8%
Hughes	LIB	11.8%	9.3%
Hume	LIB	13.6%	11.1%
Hunter	ALP	5.7%	8.2%
Indi	IND	0.3% v LIB	N/A
Isaacs	ALP	3.9%	6.4%
Jagajaga	ALP	3.1%	5.6%
Kennedy	KAP	2.2% v LNP	N/A	KAP
Kingsford Smith	ALP	2.7%	5.2%
Kingston	ALP	9.7%	12.2%
Kooyong	LIB	11.1%	8.6%
La Trobe	LIB	4.0%	1.5%
Lalor	ALP	12.2%	14.7%
Leichhardt	LNP	5.7%	3.2%
Lilley	ALP	1.3%	3.8%
Lindsay	LIB	3.0%	0.5%	LIB
Lingiari	ALP	0.9%	3.4%
Longman	LNP	6.9%	4.4%	LNP
Lyne	NAT	13.6%	11.1%
Lyons	LIB	1.2%	1.3%	ALP
Macarthur	LIB	3.3%	0.8%	ALP*
Mackellar	LIB	18.8%	16.3%
Macquarie	LIB	4.5%	2.0%	ALP
Makin	ALP	5.1%	7.6%
Mallee	NAT	23.7%	21.2%
Maranoa	LNP	22.3%	19.8%
Maribyrnong	ALP	11.4%	13.9%
Mayo	LIB	12.5%	10.0%	NXT
McEwen	ALP	0.2%	2.7%	ALP
McMahon	ALP	4.6%	7.1%
McMillan	LIB	11.8%	9.3%
McPherson	LNP	13.0%	10.5%
Melbourne	GRN	5.3% v ALP	N/A
Melbourne Ports	ALP	3.6%	6.1%
Menzies	LIB	14.5%	12.0%	LIB
Mitchell	LIB	21.4%	18.9%
Moncrieff	LNP	18.0%	15.5%
Moore	LIB	12.4%	9.9%
Moreton	ALP	1.6%	4.1%
Murray	LIB	20.9%	18.4%
New England	NAT	19.6%	17.1%	NAT
Newcastle	ALP	9.4%	11.9%
North Sydney	LIB	15.7%	13.2%
O'Connor	LIB	0.9% v NAT	N/A
Oxley	ALP	3.8%	6.3%
Page	NAT	3.1%	0.6%	ALP
Parkes	NAT	19.9%	17.4%
Parramatta	ALP	1.3%	3.8%
Paterson	ALP	0.4%	2.9%	ALP
Pearce	LIB	9.3%	6.8%	LIB
Perth	ALP	2.2%	4.7%
Petrie	LNP	0.5%	2.0%	ALP
Port Adelaide	ALP	14.0%	16.5%
Rankin	ALP	4.8%	7.3%
Reid	LIB	3.4%	0.9%	LIB
Richmond	ALP	1.6%	4.1%
Riverina	NAT	19.0%	16.5%
Robertson	LIB	3.1%	0.6%	ALP
Ryan	LNP	8.5%	6.0%
Scullin	ALP	14.4%	16.9%
Shortland	ALP	7.4%	9.9%
Solomon	CLP	1.4%	1.1%	ALP
Stirling	LIB	9.0%	6.5%
Sturt	LIB	10.1%	7.6%	LIB
Swan	LIB	7.3%	4.8%
Sydney	ALP	12.9%	15.4%
Tangney	LIB	13.0%	10.5%
Wakefield	ALP	3.4%	5.9%
Wannon	LIB	10.1%	7.6%
Warringah	LIB	15.3%	12.8%
Watson	ALP	8.9%	11.4%
Wentworth	LIB	18.9%	16.4%	LIB
Werriwa	ALP	6.5%	9.0%
Whitlam	ALP	6.9%	9.4%
Wide Bay	LNP	13.2%	10.7%
Wills	ALP	15.2% v GRN	N/A
Wright	LNP	11.8%	9.3%

Seats where this polling does not accord with our predictions are: Adelaide, Barker, Batman, Burt, Cowan, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Grey, Macarthur, Macquarie, Mayo, Page and Robertson.

These seats will be given special, additional consideration, along with Sturt, where local polling suggests a Liberal win but the NXT have been touted for a possible victory, and New England, where the polling had former incumbent IND Tony Windsor close to removing Barnaby Joyce.

Adelaide

labor's Kate Ellis has held this seat since 2004. That's before the 2007 Ruddslide and through the anti-Gillard swings of 2010 and 2013. While her margin was reduced to 4% the swing against the Coalition makes me doubt this poll. This poll is the only one for Adelaid, has the Libs winning 51% to 49% and has by far the smallest polling sample (364 vs minimum 500 elsewhere) of any seat-wide poll this election. I'm calling this poll a dud and keeping ADL with the ALP.

Barker

If anyone had said Barker would be at risk last election they would have been laughed at. The seat has been held by a member of the Liberals or Nationals, or one of their precursors, since it was founded in 1903. The Liberals currently hold it by 16.6% - a safe margin in any election. All of this, however, merely represents a state fortified against the traditional assault from the ALP. The challenge here comes from the NXT, which is a whole other kettle of fish. The poll had a large sample size, and had a 4% gap between NXT and LIB, but I'm still surprised by the whole affair. If I had tossups I'd use one here, but I don't. GI'm giving Barker to the NXT; go hard or go home.

Batman

It seems to me that before elections there's always talk of the Greens taking out another seat. last election it was Grayndler if I recall. not only did they fail, it is not even an ALP v GRN on 2pp terms. Batman is, but it has the ALP ahead by 10.6%. With a sample of over 1000 people, and a 55:45 split in favour of the Greens this looks solid, but only 3 days before another poll had the ALP ahead 53:47. Now, this seat seems incredibly safe from the Coalition but there's something screwey with one of those polls and - despite the sample size - I cannot imagine the greens gaining 10.6% on the ALP in this electoral climate. Batman stays with the ALP.

Burt

Burt. Burt is a new seat, and has no history as a result. The current rating of 6.1% Liberal is therefore an approximation based on the results from polling boothes that now fall in the electorate. But some of those votes may come from outside Burt. I'd love to use a tossup here, but since I can't I'm going to put my faith in Antony Green's adjustments for the seat and the fact that the previous divisions of Canning, Hasluck and Tangney have been pretty Liberal for a while to back the LIBs against the 52:48 poll. Don't these things normally have a error range of 3% anyhow?

Cowan

Cowan is something of a perverse seat, having been Liberal during most of the Howard years, then switching to Liberal with Rudd's victory in 2007. The margin is only 4.5%, or 2% after the national swing - this could easily fall in the natural variation of things. On the other hand, the most recent poll in Cowan was a tie, and the only other poll was ALP by 51:49. So the state polling evidence is very weak, but so is the pendulum evidence and history gives us nothing. Possibly my #1 pick for a tossup, I'm tempted to toss Cowan to an Independent just for the hell of it. Instead... I pick... LIBs?

Dobell

We have four polls for Dobell: 50:50 on May 14, ALP up to 51% by June 11, 53% by June 23 and then down to 49% on June 29. That last poll is close, previous polls favoured the ALP, but then the last poll is veryrecent. Also, I always get caught out in swings to one party by that one contrary seat that swings the other way and gets me unawares. Dobell is only held by the ALP with 0.2%. If any seat will bite me, it should be Dobell. So I'm going to take a risk and put my money on the LIBs here. This would have been my fourth tossup of my allowed seven, for those counting.

Eden-Monaro

Et tu, Eden-Monaro? The famous bell-wether seat, EM has been won by the winning party since 1972. Just on the numbers already (and the campaign so far) it's clear that the outcome shuld either be Coalition majority or minority government. But I think Eden-Monaro is about to burn it's claim-to-fame and side with the ALP. There have been two polls of this seat, both favouring the ALP 55:45. And the seat is held by 2.9% which gets almost entirely ersed by my anticipated 2.5% swing. I wouldn't stake anything on the resiliance of that last 0.4%, so this is my big surprise prediction - Coalition government but ALP in Eden-Monaro.

Grey

Grey, like Barker above and Mayo below is a safe Liberal seat by any normal standard. All three are sitting pretty on a margin of 10% (the traditional definition of "safe") even after the 2.5% swing to the ALP. Unlike the other two, though, Grey actually has been ALP historically, though not since 1993. But for all three seats we can chuck that all out the window, because the NXT vote is eroding LIB support in a way the ALP never could. On paper this should be the first of the three to fall to the NXT, with the less Coalition-dominated history and NXT poll of 54% compared to 52% in Barker and Mayo's most recent polls (although these are more recent and Mayo did beat 54% after Grey). But I cannot shake the feeling that if NXT loses one of its trifecta, it'll be this one. Still, all for one and one for all. I'll give Grey to Xeonphon and hope for the best.

Macarthur

Seat ALP:LIB polling history for Macarthur: 51:49 on May 14, 51:49 on May 19, 50:50 on June 17 and 50:50 on June 25. So the two most recent polls have the seat at a tie, and the old polls only give the ALP a 1% lead. Then again, the seat is only held by 3.3%, or 0.8% after the expected swing. This'll be a close one and my fifth tossup if I had any to spend. Just for the sake of a tie-break the seat has been in Liberal hands since '96, so I'm cautiously expecting them to retain Macarthur.

Macquarie

Macquarie has shuffled between the Coalition and Labor since federation, and is held by 4.5%. This seat is ripe for the picking, but would require double the national predicted swing. That is very far from impossible, and the poll was recent, had a decent sample, and predicted an 8% gap between ALP and the LIBs, so I'll put a modicum of faith in the polling methodology and back the ALP here.

Mayo

Mayo, my own seat, has never been a close contest. It is held by the Liberals' Jamie Briggs by 12.5%, and has been Liberal since the seat was founded in 1984. If this was a suggestion that the ALP would take the seat, I'd dismiss it immediately. The NXT party could well outpoll the ALP because of the latter's minimal chances in the seat, and if those preferences flow away from the Coalition as one would expect, May could be in NXT's pocket. There are actually 3 local polls for Mayo. All have NXT beating the Libs. I'm calling Mayo for NXT.

New England

New England is historically predictable. The Nationals and their forebears have held the seat since before the First World War, with two exceptions. The first was when Country Party candidate Alexander Hay went Independent in 1922 and was replaced that year by Country Party candidateVictor Thompson. The other was when popular Independent Tony Windsor held the seat from 2001 to 2013 when he retired. The seat then went back to high-profile Nationals candidate, deputy Prime minister and Nationals Party leader Barnaby Joyce, who holds the seat by almost 20%. The only local poll has Joyce holding the seat. Why would I put this seat on my review list?

Tony Windsor is coming out of retirement. The only poll we have has Joyce leading 51:49 and that was over a fortnight ago with a smaller sample size. I don't have any data that puts Windsor ahead, but the safety of this seat is largely illusory in my view. I'd make this tossup 6 if i could, but I can't so I'll take the ballsy and empirically unsupported route of calling this one IND.

Page

Page historically has shifted with the tide. It was National for a while under Howard, came to Labor with Rudd and ebbed away again to Abbot. With a 3.1% margin, or 0.6% after the national expected swing, Page is far from safe. We have two recent polls - June 21 and June 23 - both putting ALP ahead (52% and 54% respectively). So I'll back the ALP in Page.

Robertson

Like Page, Robertson is held by 3.1%, or 0.6% after the expected average swing. The seat has had its share of swings, being Liberal under Howard, ALP under Rudd-Gillard-Rudd and LIB again under Abbot-Turnbull. So if the polls were as convincing as in Page, I'd jump to the ALP. Unfortunately they're not. 53% on June 18 is prominsing for Labor, but the previous poll one day earlier had the Libs ahead 51:49. That suggests sampling or methodological issues to me (and maybe all the polls are this unreliable!) so I'll stick to my guns and back the LIBs.

Sturt

And finally, Sturt. Christopher Pyne is a high profile candidate, has a "safe" margin of over 10%, has held the seat since 1993, the seat has been Liberal since 1972, and only been in ALP hands for two short and non-consecutive terms. But Pyne did take a big hit in the Ruddslide, holding the seat by 0.9%. And it's not the ALP Pyne needs to worry about. This seat is the fourth possible NXT victory often described. A May 22 poll hadPyne beating NXT 51:49. But since then, on june 17, Pyne boosted his polling up to 58%, albeit with a smaller sample size. I don't think NXT will do as well here as some have touted. I suspect Pyne will be returned.

And so...

That leaves me with this set of predictions:

DIVISION	CURRENT	PREDICTED
Adelaide	ALP	ALP
Aston	LIB	LIB
Ballarat	ALP	ALP
Banks	LIB	LIB
Barker	LIB	NXT
Barton	ALP	ALP
Bass	LIB	LIB
Batman	ALP	ALP
Bendigo	ALP	ALP
Bennelong	LIB	LIB
Berowra	LIB	LIB
Blair	ALP	ALP
Blaxland	ALP	ALP
Bonner	LNP	LNP
Boothby	LIB	LIB
Bowman	LNP	LNP
Braddon	LIB	LIB
Bradfield	LIB	LIB
Brand	ALP	ALP
Brisbane	LNP	LNP
Bruce	ALP	ALP
Burt	LIB	LIB
Calare	NAT	NAT
Calwell	ALP	ALP
Canberra	ALP	ALP
Canning	LIB	LIB
Capricornia	LNP	ALP
Casey	LIB	LIB
Chifley	ALP	ALP
Chisholm	ALP	ALP
Cook	LIB	LIB
Corangamite	LIB	LIB
Corio	ALP	ALP
Cowan	LIB	LIB
Cowper	NAT	NAT
Cunningham	ALP	ALP
Curtin	LIB	LIB
Dawson	LNP	LNP
Deakin	LIB	LIB
Denison	IND	IND
Dickson	LNP	LNP
Dobell	ALP	LIB
Dunkley	LIB	LIB
Durack	LIB	LIB
Eden-Monaro	LIB	ALP
Fadden	LNP	LNP
Fairfax	PUP	LNP
Farrer	LIB	LIB
Fenner	ALP	ALP
Fisher	LNP	LNP
Flinders	LIB	LIB
Flynn	LNP	LNP
Forde	LNP	LNP
Forrest	LIB	LIB
Fowler	ALP	ALP
Franklin	ALP	ALP
Fremantle	ALP	ALP
Gellibrand	ALP	ALP
Gilmore	LIB	LIB
Gippsland	NAT	NAT
Goldstein	LIB	LIB
Gorton	ALP	ALP
Grayndler	ALP	ALP
Greenway	ALP	ALP
Grey	LIB	NXT
Griffith	ALP	ALP
Groom	LNP	LNP
Hasluck	LIB	LIB
Herbert	LNP	LNP
Higgins	LIB	LIB
Hindmarsh	LIB	ALP
Hinkler	LNP	LNP
Holt	ALP	ALP
Hotham	ALP	ALP
Hughes	LIB	LIB
Hume	LIB	LIB
Hunter	ALP	ALP
Indi	IND	IND
Isaacs	ALP	ALP
Jagajaga	ALP	ALP
Kennedy	KAP	KAP
Kingsford Smith	ALP	ALP
Kingston	ALP	ALP
Kooyong	LIB	LIB
La Trobe	LIB	LIB
Lalor	ALP	ALP
Leichhardt	LNP	LNP
Lilley	ALP	ALP
Lindsay	LIB	LIB
Lingiari	ALP	ALP
Longman	LNP	LNP
Lyne	NAT	NAT
Lyons	LIB	ALP
Macarthur	LIB	LIB
Mackellar	LIB	LIB
Macquarie	LIB	ALP
Makin	ALP	ALP
Mallee	NAT	NAT
Maranoa	LNP	LNP
Maribyrnong	ALP	ALP
Mayo	LIB	NXT
McEwen	ALP	ALP
McMahon	ALP	ALP
McMillan	LIB	LIB
McPherson	LNP	LNP
Melbourne	GRN	GRN
Melbourne Ports	ALP	ALP
Menzies	LIB	LIB
Mitchell	LIB	LIB
Moncrieff	LNP	LNP
Moore	LIB	LIB
Moreton	ALP	ALP
Murray	LIB	LIB
New England	NAT	IND
Newcastle	ALP	ALP
North Sydney	LIB	LIB
O'Connor	LIB	LIB
Oxley	ALP	ALP
Page	NAT	ALP
Parkes	NAT	NAT
Parramatta	ALP	ALP
Paterson	ALP	ALP
Pearce	LIB	LIB
Perth	ALP	ALP
Petrie	LNP	ALP
Port Adelaide	ALP	ALP
Rankin	ALP	ALP
Reid	LIB	LIB
Richmond	ALP	ALP
Riverina	NAT	NAT
Robertson	LIB	LIB
Ryan	LNP	LNP
Scullin	ALP	ALP
Shortland	ALP	ALP
Solomon	CLP	ALP
Stirling	LIB	LIB
Sturt	LIB	LIB
Swan	LIB	LIB
Sydney	ALP	ALP
Tangney	LIB	LIB
Wakefield	ALP	ALP
Wannon	LIB	LIB
Warringah	LIB	LIB
Watson	ALP	ALP
Wentworth	LIB	LIB
Werriwa	ALP	ALP
Whitlam	ALP	ALP
Wide Bay	LNP	LNP
Wills	ALP	ALP
Wright	LNP	LNP

That's 78 seats for the Coalition, 64 for Labor and 8 on the cross-bench, for a Coalition majority government. But you guys already knew that right? It's who holds the balance in the senate that will make this  parliament interesting.