Election announcement speculation, like
royal baby speculation and ALP leadership speculation before that,
continues to punctuate the media. And media sources will keep on
predicting an announcement until there is an announcement –
and then promptly congratulate themselves on their insight and
ability.
However, unlike most other speculation
that takes the place of genuine news stories, there are some genuine
reasons to suspect an announcement sooner rather than later. I have
already discussed here some of the chief factors – more than a
few weeks after Gillard’s promised September 14 date begins to look
like desperately holding on to power, but to soon after taking the
leadership looks like panic. We are currently in the golden period
for an announcement. The earliest possible election date is August
31. The opportunity to carpe this diem elapses on Monday, and each
subsequent Monday another date is scratched off the list: September
7, September 14, September 21, September 28. October 5 would be a
nice option for me personally, getting to celebrate my birthday with
a vote and a late night spent watching the national tallyroom, but I
think that is drifting too far past the goldilocks period (no too
early, not too late).
September 14, as has been pointed out
here and elsewhere, is a poor choice because of a Jewish religious
festival, which only leave four dates that I would consider
reasonable options.
Two months ago we looked at the Labor
budget and the Liberal-National Coalition’s response. Unable to
simultaneously provide better programmes and greater savings, the
Coalition surprised many commentators by supporting the budget. What
this did was to undermine the Gillard government’s attempt to frame
the discussion around their projects – the NIDS, Gonski and (to a
lesser extent) the NBN among other programmes. The focus was shifted
to the far more provocatively named Carbon Tax and Mining Tax, and
later to immigration policy.
Rudd has since wrestled the attention
back to where the ALP wants it by neutralising most of these issues.
Leadership speculation seems to have finally ended – at least for
the ALP.
There is ongoing suggestion of a
Turnbull led Coalition emerging, but even the trigger-happy media is
not going so far as to expect a shake up before the election. For all
of his public support, the Liberal Party do not trust Turnbull enough
to support him into the role that could land him the Prime
Ministership within a month or two.
The uncertain election date encouraged
the Coalition, wary of starting their campaign too vigorously too
early, to keep their powder dry. This
has allowed the ALP to nip their opponents’ chief arguments in the
bud, undermining any ads that they had ready to go. The Carbon Tax
will transition to an ETS, Labor has taken a much tougher stance on
people smuggling and any suggestion that the ALP changes leaders more
often than Abbott changes speedos is unlikely to gain traction after
the changes to the Labor party’s rules regarding leadership
selection. With the exception of the Mining Tax and the economy
(which is actually doing fine, and will be discussed heavily over the
next week or two with some important reviews due for release) Labor
is ready for an election.
There is still uncertainty as to when
the election will be locked in – and a continuing unawareness that
the decision does not in fact rest with Rudd anyway. However, the
time would seem to be drawing near so the next few weeks on this blog
are going to be difficult to plan. I would expect, however, to begin
summarising our data so far over the next week or so in preparation
for predictions and punctuated with posts to ensure that you are well
informed when you arrive at the ballot box. In that vein, I will
spend the second half of this week’s post recapping the
state-by-state summaries that bored you all stiff over the last month
and a half.
Recapping the State-by-State Summaries that Bored You All Stiff Over the Last Month and a Half.
The above matrix synthesises the
summaries into three distinct categories: Category 1 or ‘critical’
seats are those where the volatility of said seat significantly
outweighs the security with which it held. These seats are not only
in play, they are the seats that will more or less decide the
election short of a massive landslide swing to one party or another.
Category 2 ‘standard’ seats may still be in play, but have a
distinct bias to a particular party. These are the seats that might
fall in a landslide, but almost certainly not in the normal course of
an election. These are generally quite volatile – and thus open to
influence throughout the campaign, but with a fair bit of ground for
one of the major parties to cover before they can pull of the
necessary coup. Otherwise these are less easily swung (which in most cases
simply means less swinging voters) but already close enough for that to be significant.
Category 3 ‘bastions’ are the die-hard seats that in some cases
have voted consistently for the same party since 1901. These are
unlikely to be won by a non-incumbent party in even the most
avalanche-esque elections. On top of these three categories are the
tossups. These are the seats so closely balanced that I could not
determine which party they could even be said to marginally support.
These seats, therefore, are the most marginal of all and the first
gains any major party is likely to try and win.
Colours below indicate the party
towards which the seat was expected to pass under the previous posts
(ALP, LIB,
NAT, KAT),
which is not necessarily the current incumbent’s.
Category 1: Critical
Adelaide (SA),
Bendigo (VIC), Blair
(QLD), Braddon (TAS), Bruce
(VIC), Canning (WA), Capricornia
(QLD), Chisholm (VIC),
Dawson (QLD), Denison (TAS),
Dickson (QLD), Dunkley
(VIC), Forde (QLD), Flinders
(VIC), Gellibrand (VIC), Greenway
(NSW), Herbert (QLD), Leichhardt
(QLD), Lindsay (NSW), Longman
(QLD), Macquarie (NSW), Makin
(SA), McEwen
(VIC), McMillan (VIC), O’Connor
(WA), Page (NSW), Parramatta
(NSW), Paterson (NSW), Petrie
(QLD), Solomon (NT), Swan
(WA), Wakefield (SA).
Category 2: Standard
Ballarat (VIC),
Bowman (QLD), Casey (VIC),
Corangamite (VIC), Fisher
(QLD), Franklin (TAS), Gilmore
(NSW), Grey
(SA), Griffith (QLD)*, Hindmarsh
(SA), Hinkler (QLD), Hughes
(NSW), Isaacs (VIC), Lingiari
(NT), Macarthur (NSW),
Maribyrnong (VIC), Moore
(WA), Stirling (WA).
Category 3: Bastion
Aston (VIC),
Banks (NSW), Barker
(SA), Barton (NSW), Batman
(VIC), Bennelong (NSW), Berowra
(NSW), Blaxland (NSW), Bradfield
(NSW), Brand (WA), Boothby
(SA), Calare (NSW), Calwell
(VIC), Canberra (ACT), Charlton
(NSW), Chifley (NSW), Cook
(NSW), Corio (VIC), Cowper
(NSW), Cunningham (NSW), Curtin
(WA), Deakin (VIC), Fadden
(QLD), Fairfax (QLD), Farrer
(NSW), Forrest (WA), Fowler
(NSW), Fraser (ACT), Fremantle
(WA), Gippsland (VIC), Goldstein
(VIC), Gorton (VIC)**, Grayndler
(NSW), Groom (QLD), Higgins
(VIC), Holt (VIC), Hotham
(VIC), Hume (NSW)***, Hunter
(NSW), Indi (VIC), Jagajaga
(VIC), Kennedy (QLD), Kingsford
Smith (NSW), Kooyong (VIC), Lalor
(VIC), Lyne (NSW), Lyons
(TAS), Mackellar (NSW), Mallee
(VIC), Maranoa (QLD), Mayo
(SA), McPherson (QLD), Melbourne
(VIC), Melbourne Ports (VIC),
Menzies (VIC), Mitchell
(NSW), Moncrieff (QLD), Murray
(VIC), New England (NSW),
Newcastle (NSW), North
Sydney (NSW), Oxley (QLD), Parkes
(NSW), Pearce (WA), Perth
(WA), Port Adelaide (SA), Rankin
(QLD), Reid (NSW), Riverina
(NSW), Ryan (QLD), Scullin
(VIC), Shortland (NSW), Sturt
(SA), Sydney (NSW), Tangney
(WA), Throsby (NSW), Wannon
(VIC), Warringah (NSW), Watson
(NSW), Wentworth (NSW), Werriwa
(NSW), Wide Bay (QLD), Wills
(VIC).
Tossups
Bass (TAS), Bonner (QLD), Brisbane
(QLD), Cowan (WA), Dobell (NSW), Durack (WA), Flynn (QLD), Hasluck
(WA), Kingston (SA), La Trobe (VIC), Lilley (QLD), McMahon (NSW),
Moreton (QLD), Richmond (NSW), Robertson (NSW), Wright (QLD).
Taking the
bastions as the base that each party needs to build upon, the Labor
and Liberal Parties have 37 seats each. Including the 8 Nationals and
single Katter’s Australian Party electoral district (Katter’s own
division of Kennedy) the Coalition looks to be in a slightly better
position, but it is still a long sprint to get to the required 76
seats needed for a majority. By current polling this is shaping up to
be a fairly balanced election, so we might also consider most of the
standard seats as rather firm. If so, this gives the Coalition
another 11 seats – all Liberal – and the ALP 7. 20 of the
remaining 50 seats will allow the Coalition to make a majority in
coalition with Katter, and 21 seats will allow them to rule in their
own right. Given that 19 are Liberal leaning and two are National
leaning, the ALP will need to retain its current critical seats, pick
up all the tossups and then some to take power. This is partly
because two of the Independents who gave Labor their support to form
government are retiring in otherwise safe Coalition seats, and partly
because of a strong anti-ALP swing after dropping Prime Minister
Rudd. This was particularly strong in his home state of Queensland –
note that all of the critical Queensland seats are leaning to the
LNQ. This is based on historical data, and if a pro-ALP correction in
Queensland can bring some of these seats over the line then Labor is
still in with a chance.
*Griffith (QLD)
is a Category 2 seat only in technical terms. This is Kevin Rudd’s
seat, and it would be highly unusual for the PM to be at risk of
losing his or her seat. That being said, this is exactly what
happened in 2007 when Rudd won office the first time…
**Gorton (VIC)
is considered a bastion for the ALP, having been won by that party
since the seat was created in 2004, being composed entirely of state
Labor seats and with a margin in excess of 20%. While it is too early
to determine the stability of the seat, the history lends itself to a
variable or stable assessment rather than a volatile one. This makes
Gorton a Category 3 seat.
***Hume (NSW)
was listed as ‘volatile’. After further consideration I have
counted this as ‘variable’, raising Hume from a standard seat to
a Liberal bastion.
