Hello Reader!
It may be November 2 here, but it is still good ol' 1/11 in the US of A (or 11/1 to use the local vernacular).
And that fact is important because this is going to be my first attempt at INTERNATIONAL ELECTION COVERAGE!
After the State and Federal elections finished earlier this year, I was slightly disappointed that I would not get another election to cover until 2013. Sure, Local Government elections are on, and I'll cover them briefly too, but those postal votes don't get counted until November 12. Plus they aren't that exciting. And after that, nada for three years. (For those of you counting – I know I am – Federal elections are due 2013, State and Council elections 2014 baring a disillusion of parliament). In other good news, Victoria has announced an election for November 27, so look out for that one!
But to business: US midterms are tomorrow – or today – November 2nd. For those of you into your electoral trivia (and who the hell isn't?) the United States holds all federal elections on the day after the first Monday of November, so November 2 is the soonest it could ever be held – and not soon enough I say!
Now, America never does anything small, and elections are no exception. You've no doubt heard for months about the Republican Tea Party Movement, the Backlash against Obama's Democratic Party and senate candidates engaged in Witchcraft. No Australian election could ever become more heated, more controversial or more lengthy. For a wrap up of the more... shall we say... “American” ads, Jon Stewart assembled the following montage:
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/10/the-daily-show-mocks-negative-campaign-ads-larry-wilmore-fcks-chickens-video.php
The article is not particularly amusing, even by the standards of American TV, but I think the section from 2:05 – 2:45 is a useful insight into the ferocity of US campaigns.
But it is not just the length, magnitude and insanity of the campaigning that the Americans offer in excess, the Elections themselves are super-sized. In an Australian Federal Election it is traditional to hold the votes for the House of Representatives (150 seats) and roughly half the Senate (40 seats). In America, the Presidential elections are held every 4 years, and the midterms two years later (i.e. midterm). This involves the House of Representatives (435 seats – plus 5 non-voting members) and one third of the Senate (33 seats).
Except for the massive lower house, this does not seem like such a big difference. Like Australia, the House of Representatives is organised so the nation is divided into areas of roughly equal population, each representing one seat (there is a clause to ensure each state gets at lest one seat though) and the Senate contains X seats per state (6 per state, 2 per territory in Aus, 2 per state in the US).
BUT the US also takes the opportunity to hold many of its Gubernatorial Elections on the same day. Gubernatorial. Revel in the glory of that word. It means elections for Govenor, and of the 50 states, 37 will be electing a Governor today, plus Guam and Puerto Rico, two non-state territories of the US. This is kind of like Australia holding State and Federal elections ON THE SAME DAY – an event so massive it is ILLEGAL and totally justifies using all-caps THREE TIMES in one sentence! The Australian Constitution forbids state and federal elections clashing. The Constitution, of course, being the law upon which all other laws are based, which makes two-level elections about the most illegal thing you can do in this country – and America does it every four years!
Whilst I will be following the American 2010 Gubernatorial Elections recreationally, don't expect updates. The Federal elections will do me fine without taking on board another 39 in depth analyses. However, there is a point worth making about the 2010 Gubernatorial Elections: these elections will be the last before the 2010 US census.
Now, remember that America, and Australia for that matter, are divided into territories representing the seats of House of Representatives (called congressional districts in the U.S.) and these territories are based on population – as are many state-wide non-Gubernatorial elections. And naturally these figures are based on the census data. Whoever rules the state after this election gets to re-draw these boundaries, so if either party wins a lot of seats, you can expect a fair bit of Gerrymandering to ensure a clear advantage for the next ten years of American politics.
To move on to the the House of Representatives, there are 435 voting members (although constitutionally this number can change, it has been fixed for a long time), and all are being elected on Tuesday the 2nd. There are also 6 non-voting, or “delegate”, seats (although they can vote in some cases, normally only when their votes don't matter. I'm sure that made sense to the Americans who organised that system, but the delegates exact rights are constantly changing depending on which party is in power and whether they have the most non-voting seats). Puerto Rico is not up for re-election because their delegate is a “Resident commissioner” (which is technically not the same as a delegate) and is elected for four years in the same year as the U.S. President. The other five delegates, for American Samoa, the Northern Mariana Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam and Washington D.C., are all up for re-election.
The House of Representatives can last only two years, being re-elected every midterm and presidential election, so it currently reflects voter opinion during the Obama campaign with a few modifications: Republican John McHugh of district NY-23 resigned to become Secretary of the Army and was replaced by Democrat Bill Owens, and Parker Griffith of AL-05 left the Democrats to become a Republican.
As a result, the house contains 255 voting Democrats to 178 voting Republicans, with two vacancies from former Democrats. With large sections of the population disappointed with Obama's change – or perceived lack there of – a correction is expected to result in a much closer House. Furthermore, with two exceptions (1998 and 2002), every midterm election since WWII has seen a swing against the then President's party.
Without going into a long list here, my predictions for this give the Democrats 195 seats, the Republicans 224 and 16 seats in doubt. Even if all of those went Democrat, it would still be 211:224 in favour of the Republicans. In other words I am prepared to predict a Republican win in the Lower House by a margin of 29 seats, give or take 16.
Those sixteen in doubt (or Tossups) are as follows:
All were previously held by Democrats, but with the wide-spread disillusionment with the Democrats war-cry of “Change”, incumbency is likely to offer little advantage, especially in a voluntary voting system like the United States'.
The United States Senate has 100 seats – 2 from each state – and is divided into three approximately equal groups or “classes”. One class is elected in a given midterm (e.g. 2010), the next class in the following presidential election (2012), then the third in the following midterm (2014). The following presidential election (2016) will see the first class face re-election once more. As a result, 63 senators are staying on (40 Democrats, 23 Republicans) with 37 up for contest (19 currently held by the Democratic Party, 18 by the Republican). This is slightly over one third to accommodate retirements and the like. There are 14 retiring senators (7 from each party) and thus 23 aiming for re-election (12 Dem, 11 Rep).
With a 17 seat lead in the carry-over Senators, the Democrats have a better chance in the Upper House than the Lower. Again, without listing each seat here, I grant the 37 contested seats thus:
Democrats: 7 safe + 3 likely
Republicans: 18 safe + 3 likely
In Doubt: 6
Ignoring the 6 in doubt (Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, if you were wondering,) that gives the Democrats 50 to the Republicans' 44. If the Democrats did loose some of their likely or even their safe seats, they might be able to compensate by winning some Tossups. With the Democrats just one seat away from an outright majority, I'm predicting a likely win in the Senate for the Democrats, but with a large swing to the Republicans.
IN SUMMARY:
Gubernatorial Elections: Republican swing expected, probable slight Republican majority of governors, offering a slight advantage to the conservatives for the next ten years.
House of Representative Elections: Strong Republican swing, expect clear Republican dominance. That said, Clinton is one Democrat whose governance is generally accepted to have improved with a Republican-dominated House of Representatives, mostly as a result of over-confident Republicans. If the same applies to Obama's next two years, a second term is more than possible for him.
Senate Elections: A strong Republican swing here too, but with enough incumbent Democrats to make a Republican majority unlikely.
In all this will probably limit Obama's powers, but if you give the Republicans enough rope, you never know what might be happening in 2012.
It may be November 2 here, but it is still good ol' 1/11 in the US of A (or 11/1 to use the local vernacular).
And that fact is important because this is going to be my first attempt at INTERNATIONAL ELECTION COVERAGE!
After the State and Federal elections finished earlier this year, I was slightly disappointed that I would not get another election to cover until 2013. Sure, Local Government elections are on, and I'll cover them briefly too, but those postal votes don't get counted until November 12. Plus they aren't that exciting. And after that, nada for three years. (For those of you counting – I know I am – Federal elections are due 2013, State and Council elections 2014 baring a disillusion of parliament). In other good news, Victoria has announced an election for November 27, so look out for that one!
But to business: US midterms are tomorrow – or today – November 2nd. For those of you into your electoral trivia (and who the hell isn't?) the United States holds all federal elections on the day after the first Monday of November, so November 2 is the soonest it could ever be held – and not soon enough I say!
Now, America never does anything small, and elections are no exception. You've no doubt heard for months about the Republican Tea Party Movement, the Backlash against Obama's Democratic Party and senate candidates engaged in Witchcraft. No Australian election could ever become more heated, more controversial or more lengthy. For a wrap up of the more... shall we say... “American” ads, Jon Stewart assembled the following montage:
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/10/the-daily-show-mocks-negative-campaign-ads-larry-wilmore-fcks-chickens-video.php
The article is not particularly amusing, even by the standards of American TV, but I think the section from 2:05 – 2:45 is a useful insight into the ferocity of US campaigns.
But it is not just the length, magnitude and insanity of the campaigning that the Americans offer in excess, the Elections themselves are super-sized. In an Australian Federal Election it is traditional to hold the votes for the House of Representatives (150 seats) and roughly half the Senate (40 seats). In America, the Presidential elections are held every 4 years, and the midterms two years later (i.e. midterm). This involves the House of Representatives (435 seats – plus 5 non-voting members) and one third of the Senate (33 seats).
Except for the massive lower house, this does not seem like such a big difference. Like Australia, the House of Representatives is organised so the nation is divided into areas of roughly equal population, each representing one seat (there is a clause to ensure each state gets at lest one seat though) and the Senate contains X seats per state (6 per state, 2 per territory in Aus, 2 per state in the US).
BUT the US also takes the opportunity to hold many of its Gubernatorial Elections on the same day. Gubernatorial. Revel in the glory of that word. It means elections for Govenor, and of the 50 states, 37 will be electing a Governor today, plus Guam and Puerto Rico, two non-state territories of the US. This is kind of like Australia holding State and Federal elections ON THE SAME DAY – an event so massive it is ILLEGAL and totally justifies using all-caps THREE TIMES in one sentence! The Australian Constitution forbids state and federal elections clashing. The Constitution, of course, being the law upon which all other laws are based, which makes two-level elections about the most illegal thing you can do in this country – and America does it every four years!
Whilst I will be following the American 2010 Gubernatorial Elections recreationally, don't expect updates. The Federal elections will do me fine without taking on board another 39 in depth analyses. However, there is a point worth making about the 2010 Gubernatorial Elections: these elections will be the last before the 2010 US census.
Now, remember that America, and Australia for that matter, are divided into territories representing the seats of House of Representatives (called congressional districts in the U.S.) and these territories are based on population – as are many state-wide non-Gubernatorial elections. And naturally these figures are based on the census data. Whoever rules the state after this election gets to re-draw these boundaries, so if either party wins a lot of seats, you can expect a fair bit of Gerrymandering to ensure a clear advantage for the next ten years of American politics.
To move on to the the House of Representatives, there are 435 voting members (although constitutionally this number can change, it has been fixed for a long time), and all are being elected on Tuesday the 2nd. There are also 6 non-voting, or “delegate”, seats (although they can vote in some cases, normally only when their votes don't matter. I'm sure that made sense to the Americans who organised that system, but the delegates exact rights are constantly changing depending on which party is in power and whether they have the most non-voting seats). Puerto Rico is not up for re-election because their delegate is a “Resident commissioner” (which is technically not the same as a delegate) and is elected for four years in the same year as the U.S. President. The other five delegates, for American Samoa, the Northern Mariana Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam and Washington D.C., are all up for re-election.
The House of Representatives can last only two years, being re-elected every midterm and presidential election, so it currently reflects voter opinion during the Obama campaign with a few modifications: Republican John McHugh of district NY-23 resigned to become Secretary of the Army and was replaced by Democrat Bill Owens, and Parker Griffith of AL-05 left the Democrats to become a Republican.
As a result, the house contains 255 voting Democrats to 178 voting Republicans, with two vacancies from former Democrats. With large sections of the population disappointed with Obama's change – or perceived lack there of – a correction is expected to result in a much closer House. Furthermore, with two exceptions (1998 and 2002), every midterm election since WWII has seen a swing against the then President's party.
Without going into a long list here, my predictions for this give the Democrats 195 seats, the Republicans 224 and 16 seats in doubt. Even if all of those went Democrat, it would still be 211:224 in favour of the Republicans. In other words I am prepared to predict a Republican win in the Lower House by a margin of 29 seats, give or take 16.
Those sixteen in doubt (or Tossups) are as follows:
- Alabama's Second Congressional District (AL-2)
- Florida's Twenty-Second Congressional District (FL-22)
- Georgia's Twelfth Congressional District (GA-12)
- Hawaii's First Congressional District (HI-1)
- Idaho's First Congressional District (ID-1)
- Massachusetts' Tenth Congressional District (MA-10)
- Michigan's Seventh Congressional District (MI-7)
- Mississippi's Fourth Congressional District (MS-4)
- Missouri's Fourth Congressional District (MO-4)
- New Hampshire's Second Congressional District (NH-2)
- New Jersey's Third Congressional District (NJ-3)
- New York's Twenty-Fouth Congressional District (NY-24)
- North Carolina's Eighth Congressional District (NC-8)
- Ohio's Sixth Congressional District (OH-6)
- Oregon's Fifth Congressional District (OR-5)
- West Virginia's First Congressional District (WV-1)
All were previously held by Democrats, but with the wide-spread disillusionment with the Democrats war-cry of “Change”, incumbency is likely to offer little advantage, especially in a voluntary voting system like the United States'.
The United States Senate has 100 seats – 2 from each state – and is divided into three approximately equal groups or “classes”. One class is elected in a given midterm (e.g. 2010), the next class in the following presidential election (2012), then the third in the following midterm (2014). The following presidential election (2016) will see the first class face re-election once more. As a result, 63 senators are staying on (40 Democrats, 23 Republicans) with 37 up for contest (19 currently held by the Democratic Party, 18 by the Republican). This is slightly over one third to accommodate retirements and the like. There are 14 retiring senators (7 from each party) and thus 23 aiming for re-election (12 Dem, 11 Rep).
With a 17 seat lead in the carry-over Senators, the Democrats have a better chance in the Upper House than the Lower. Again, without listing each seat here, I grant the 37 contested seats thus:
Democrats: 7 safe + 3 likely
Republicans: 18 safe + 3 likely
In Doubt: 6
Ignoring the 6 in doubt (Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and West Virginia, if you were wondering,) that gives the Democrats 50 to the Republicans' 44. If the Democrats did loose some of their likely or even their safe seats, they might be able to compensate by winning some Tossups. With the Democrats just one seat away from an outright majority, I'm predicting a likely win in the Senate for the Democrats, but with a large swing to the Republicans.
IN SUMMARY:
Gubernatorial Elections: Republican swing expected, probable slight Republican majority of governors, offering a slight advantage to the conservatives for the next ten years.
House of Representative Elections: Strong Republican swing, expect clear Republican dominance. That said, Clinton is one Democrat whose governance is generally accepted to have improved with a Republican-dominated House of Representatives, mostly as a result of over-confident Republicans. If the same applies to Obama's next two years, a second term is more than possible for him.
Senate Elections: A strong Republican swing here too, but with enough incumbent Democrats to make a Republican majority unlikely.
In all this will probably limit Obama's powers, but if you give the Republicans enough rope, you never know what might be happening in 2012.
PsephologyKid, Nov 4:
ReplyDeleteGubernatorial Elections: Republican swing experienced, slight Republican majority of governors, offering a slight advantage to the conservatives for the next ten years.
House of Representative Elections: Strong Republican swing, resulting in clear Republican dominance. That said, Clinton is one Democrat whose governance is generally accepted to have improved with a Republican-dominated House of Representatives, mostly as a result of over-confident Republicans. If the same applies to Obama's next two years, a second term is more than possible for him.
Senate Elections: A strong Republican swing here too, but with enough incumbent Democrats to prevent a Republican majority.
Who would have seen that coming?