Behind Schedule and on Autopilot
I haven't left myself much time for a Federal election prediction, with east coast polling centres closing in a matter of minutes. Fortunately this election doesn't need a lot of time because unusually we have widespread seat-by-seat polling. In fact, we have polling for all 151 lower house seats taken within the last fortnight.
Now, certainly, this isn't foolproof but by any measure relying on polling is more reliable that the other data I have to hand (e.g. voting history, incumbency etc.) so where the 2PP polling indicates even a 0.1 pp lead this time we'll take that as true:
| Electorate | Incumbent | Poll Date | Lib Lead | Prediction |
| Adelaide | ALP | 7-May-22 | -10 | ALP |
| Aston | LIB | 7-May-22 | 10 | LIB |
| Ballarat | ALP | 7-May-22 | -4 | ALP |
| Banks | LIB | 7-May-22 | 2 | LIB |
| Barker | LIB | 7-May-22 | 12 | LIB |
| Barton | ALP | 7-May-22 | -9 | ALP |
| Bass | LIB | 7-May-22 | -1 | ALP |
| Bean | ALP | 7-May-22 | -13 | ALP |
| Bendigo | ALP | 7-May-22 | -10 | ALP |
| Bennelong | LIB | 7-May-22 | 0 | Tossup |
| Berowra | LIB | 7-May-22 | 8 | LIB |
| Blair | ALP | 7-May-22 | -4 | ALP |
| Blaxland | ALP | 7-May-22 | -14 | ALP |
| Bonner | LNP | 7-May-22 | 4 | LNP |
| Boothby | LIB | 7-May-22 | -3 | ALP |
| Bowman | LNP | 7-May-22 | 5 | LNP |
| Braddon | LIB | 21-May-22 | -3 | ALP |
| Bradfield | LIB | 7-May-22 | 8 | LIB |
| Brand | ALP | 7-May-22 | -10 | ALP |
| Brisbane | LNP | 7-May-22 | -4 | ALP |
| Bruce | ALP | 7-May-22 | -8 | ALP |
| Burt | ALP | 7-May-22 | -12 | ALP |
| Calare | NAT | 7-May-22 | 10 | NAT |
| Calwell | ALP | 7-May-22 | -15 | ALP |
| Canberra | ALP | 7-May-22 | -22 | ALP |
| Canning | LIB | 7-May-22 | 3 | LIB |
| Capricornia | LNP | 7-May-22 | 9 | LNP |
| Casey | LIB | 7-May-22 | 2 | LIB |
| Chifley | ALP | 7-May-22 | -10 | ALP |
| Chisholm | LIB | 7-May-22 | -3 | ALP |
| Clark | IND | 7-May-22 | N/A | |
| Cook | LIB | 7-May-22 | 12 | LIB |
| Cooper | ALP | 7-May-22 | N/A | |
| Corangamite | ALP | 7-May-22 | 0 | Tossup |
| Corio | ALP | 7-May-22 | -11 | ALP |
| Cowan | ALP | 7-May-22 | -9 | ALP |
| Cowper | NAT | 7-May-22 | 18 | NAT |
| Cunningham | ALP | 7-May-22 | -13 | ALP |
| Curtin | LIB | 16-May-22 | N/A | |
| Dawson | IND | 7-May-22 | 6 | LNP |
| Deakin | LIB | 7-May-22 | 3 | LIB |
| Dickson | LNP | 7-May-22 | 3 | LNP |
| Dobell | ALP | 7-May-22 | -4 | ALP |
| Dunkley | ALP | 7-May-22 | -4 | ALP |
| Durack | LIB | 7-May-22 | 11 | LIB |
| Eden-Monaro | ALP | 7-May-22 | -7 | ALP |
| Fadden | LNP | 7-May-22 | 11 | LNP |
| Fairfax | LNP | 7-May-22 | 8 | LNP |
| Farrer | LIB | 7-May-22 | 23 | LIB |
| Fenner | ALP | 7-May-22 | -14 | ALP |
| Fisher | LNP | 7-May-22 | 5 | LNP |
| Flinders | LIB | 7-May-22 | 2 | LIB |
| Flynn | LNP | 7-May-22 | 4 | LNP |
| Forde | LNP | 7-May-22 | 5 | LNP |
| Forrest | LIB | 7-May-22 | 10 | LIB |
| Fowler | ALP | 17-May-22 | N/A | |
| Franklin | ALP | 7-May-22 | -13 | ALP |
| Fraser | ALP | 7-May-22 | -15 | ALP |
| Fremantle | ALP | 7-May-22 | -9 | ALP |
| Gellibrand | ALP | 7-May-22 | -13 | ALP |
| Gilmore | ALP | 15-May-22 | -6 | ALP |
| Gippsland | NAT | 7-May-22 | 11 | NAT |
| Goldstein | LIB | 16-May-22 | N/A | |
| Gorton | ALP | 7-May-22 | -13 | ALP |
| Grayndler | ALP | 7-May-22 | N/A | |
| Greenway | ALP | 7-May-22 | -3 | ALP |
| Grey | LIB | 7-May-22 | 7 | LIB |
| Griffith | ALP | 7-May-22 | -10 | ALP |
| Groom | LNP | 7-May-22 | 14 | LNP |
| Hasluck | LIB | 13-May-22 | 5 | LIB |
| Hawke | ALP | 7-May-22 | -10 | ALP |
| Herbert | LIB | 7-May-22 | 6 | LIB |
| Higgins | LIB | 13-May-22 | -4 | ALP |
| Hindmarsh | ALP | 7-May-22 | -8 | ALP |
| Hinkler | LNP | 7-May-22 | 10 | LNP |
| Holt | ALP | 7-May-22 | -7 | ALP |
| Hotham | ALP | 7-May-22 | -7 | ALP |
| Hughes | UAP | 7-May-22 | 6 | LIB |
| Hume | LIB | 7-May-22 | 9 | LIB |
| Hunter | ALP | 15-May-22 | -1 | ALP |
| Indi | IND | 7-May-22 | N/A | |
| Isaacs | ALP | 7-May-22 | -4 | ALP |
| Jagajaga | ALP | 7-May-22 | -7 | ALP |
| Kennedy | KAP | 7-May-22 | N/A | |
| Kingsford Smith | ALP | 7-May-22 | -9 | ALP |
| Kingston | ALP | 7-May-22 | -14 | ALP |
| Kooyong | LIB | 7-May-22 | N/A | |
| La Trobe | LIB | 7-May-22 | 3 | LIB |
| Lalor | ALP | 7-May-22 | -10 | ALP |
| Leichhardt | LNP | 7-May-22 | 1 | LNP |
| Lilley | ALP | 7-May-22 | -4 | ALP |
| Lindsay | LIB | 15-May-22 | 7 | LIB |
| Lingiari | ALP | 7-May-22 | -7 | ALP |
| Longman | LNP | 7-May-22 | 0 | Tossup |
| Lyne | NAT | 7-May-22 | 6 | NAT |
| Lyons | ALP | 7-May-22 | -4 | ALP |
| Macarthur | ALP | 7-May-22 | -12 | ALP |
| Mackellar | LIB | 7-May-22 | N/A | |
| Macnamara | ALP | 7-May-22 | -9 | ALP |
| Macquarie | ALP | 7-May-22 | -3 | ALP |
| Makin | ALP | 7-May-22 | -11 | ALP |
| Mallee | NAT | 7-May-22 | 6 | NAT |
| Maranoa | LNP | 7-May-22 | 23 | LNP |
| Maribyrnong | ALP | 7-May-22 | -16 | ALP |
| Mayo | CA | 7-May-22 | N/A | |
| McEwen | ALP | 7-May-22 | -5 | ALP |
| McMahon | ALP | 7-May-22 | -6 | ALP |
| McPherson | LNP | 7-May-22 | 6 | LNP |
| Melbourne | GRN | 7-May-22 | N/A | |
| Menzies | LIB | 7-May-22 | 9 | LIB |
| Mitchell | LIB | 7-May-22 | 9 | LIB |
| Monash | LIB | 7-May-22 | 5 | LIB |
| Moncrieff | LNP | 7-May-22 | N/A | |
| Moore | LIB | 7-May-22 | 5 | LIB |
| Moreton | ALP | 7-May-22 | -6 | ALP |
| New England | NAT | 7-May-22 | 18 | NAT |
| Newcastle | ALP | 7-May-22 | -17 | ALP |
| Nicholls | NAT | 7-May-22 | 11 | NAT |
| North Sydney | LIB | 14-May-22 | N/A | |
| O'Connor | LIB | 7-May-22 | 11 | LIB |
| Oxley | ALP | 7-May-22 | -8 | ALP |
| Page | NAT | 7-May-22 | 2 | NAT |
| Parkes | NAT | 7-May-22 | 4 | NAT |
| Parramatta | ALP | 15-May-22 | -4 | ALP |
| Paterson | ALP | 7-May-22 | -8 | ALP |
| Pearce | LIB | 16-May-22 | -3 | ALP |
| Perth | ALP | 7-May-22 | -13 | ALP |
| Petrie | LNP | 7-May-22 | 6 | LNP |
| Rankin | ALP | 7-May-22 | -8 | ALP |
| Reid | LIB | 15-May-22 | -3 | ALP |
| Richmond | ALP | 7-May-22 | -9 | ALP |
| Riverina | NAT | 7-May-22 | 9 | NAT |
| Robertson | LIB | 15-May-22 | -8 | ALP |
| Ryan | LNP | 7-May-22 | 0 | Tossup |
| Scullin | ALP | 7-May-22 | -18 | ALP |
| Shortland | ALP | 15-May-22 | -7 | ALP |
| Solomon | ALP | 7-May-22 | -6 | ALP |
| Spence | ALP | 7-May-22 | -12 | ALP |
| Sturt | LIB | 7-May-22 | 0 | Tossup |
| Swan | LIB | 13-May-22 | -3 | ALP |
| Sydney | ALP | 7-May-22 | -22 | ALP |
| Tangney | LIB | 13-May-22 | 4 | LIB |
| Wannon | LIB | 7-May-22 | 8 | LIB |
| Warringah | IND | 7-May-22 | N/A | |
| Watson | ALP | 7-May-22 | -15 | ALP |
| Wentworth | LIB | 7-May-22 | N/A | |
| Werriwa | ALP | 7-May-22 | -3 | ALP |
| Whitlam | ALP | 7-May-22 | -14 | ALP |
| Wide Bay | LNP | 7-May-22 | 9 | LNP |
| Wills | ALP | 7-May-22 | N/A | |
| Wright | LNP | 7-May-22 | 6 | LNP |
There are still a number of seats that require some furhter consideration: Bennelong, Corangamite, Longman, Ryan and Sturt all came in at 50:50 and are labelled as tossups. Clark, Cooper, Curtin, Fowler, Goldstein, Grayndler, Indi, Kennedy, Kooyong, Mackellar, Mayo, Melbourne, Warringah, Wentworth and Wills are all polling a non-major (i.e. not ALP, Liberal, LNP or National) party to be in the 2PP result.
Interestingly Hughes is predicted to be Lib v ALP despite being held by the United Australian Party--this does not bode well for the UAP, but we'll give this a second look too. Dawson looks on the surface to be a similar case with Liberals posed to oust the nominally independent George Christensen, though this candidate was LNP until leavign the party in April and is not re-contesting the seat so we can treat that as a pretty typical LNP v ALP race and won't need to delve much furhter there.
A few data corrections in my haste: Moncrieff is marked as N/A above because the 2PP does not add up to 100%, but
at any rate this is polling 64:34 in the LNP's favour so seems
like an easy call. Noth Sydney is marked N/A as the latest polling (14 May) did not inclued a 2PP result, but had the Liberals at 33.3%, ALP at 17.8% and an Independent at 23.3%. This, as astute readers will note, only adds to 74.6% of voters. Presumably the remaining voters will support minor parties or are undecided, and this is more likely to favour the major parties in the lond run. Earlier polling (6 May and 7 May) both have the Liberal candidate winning 2PP. Perhaps the more recent polling indicates greater awareness of the independent candidate, but more likely the earlier polling is reliable 2PP and it is safe to predict a Liberal winn in North Sydney.
Tossups
Corangamite is the only Tossup currently held by Labor. The latest polling has a 4.5 percentage point swing towards the ALP from 2019, so unless redistribution has been particularly unfortunate for the incumbent Libby Coker you'd have to tip her to hold on here.
With a margin of 3.3 Longman is the only marginal coalition seat held as a tossup. Ryan (6.0), Sturt (6.9) and Bennelong (6.9) are considered fairly safe. Longman was held by Labor from 2016 to 2019 which may indicate an openess to voting ALP or may suggest the seat is fed up with Labor. By contrast, Ryan has only been held by Labor for less than 8 months in its history, and that was two decades ago, Sturt hasn't voted Labor since 1969 and Bennelong's only term with a Labor member was from 2007 with a comprehensive rejection of John Howard. On these numbers I'm inclined to suggest Longman may go to Labor and the rest stay with the coalition.
Others
The remaining lower house contests include:
* Clark, where the Independent incumbent is polling 61% 2PP
* Cooper, where the incumbent ALP is polling 66% against the Greens
* Grayndler, where the incumbent ALP is polling 69% against the Greens
* Kennedy, where Katter is polling 62%
* Melbourne, where the incumbent Greens member is polling 64%
These seem open and shut.
| Electorate | Incumbent | Prediction |
| Adelaide | ALP | ALP |
| Aston | LIB | LIB |
| Ballarat | ALP | ALP |
| Banks | LIB | LIB |
| Barker | LIB | LIB |
| Barton | ALP | ALP |
| Bass | LIB | ALP |
| Bean | ALP | ALP |
| Bendigo | ALP | ALP |
| Bennelong | LIB | LIB |
| Berowra | LIB | LIB |
| Blair | ALP | ALP |
| Blaxland | ALP | ALP |
| Bonner | LNP | LNP |
| Boothby | LIB | ALP |
| Bowman | LNP | LNP |
| Braddon | LIB | ALP |
| Bradfield | LIB | LIB |
| Brand | ALP | ALP |
| Brisbane | LNP | ALP |
| Bruce | ALP | ALP |
| Burt | ALP | ALP |
| Calare | NAT | NAT |
| Calwell | ALP | ALP |
| Canberra | ALP | ALP |
| Canning | LIB | LIB |
| Capricornia | LNP | LNP |
| Casey | LIB | LIB |
| Chifley | ALP | ALP |
| Chisholm | LIB | ALP |
| Clark | IND | IND |
| Cook | LIB | LIB |
| Cooper | ALP | ALP |
| Corangamite | ALP | ALP |
| Corio | ALP | ALP |
| Cowan | ALP | ALP |
| Cowper | NAT | NAT |
| Cunningham | ALP | ALP |
| Curtin | LIB | |
| Dawson | IND | LNP |
| Deakin | LIB | LIB |
| Dickson | LNP | LNP |
| Dobell | ALP | ALP |
| Dunkley | ALP | ALP |
| Durack | LIB | LIB |
| Eden-Monaro | ALP | ALP |
| Fadden | LNP | LNP |
| Fairfax | LNP | LNP |
| Farrer | LIB | LIB |
| Fenner | ALP | ALP |
| Fisher | LNP | LNP |
| Flinders | LIB | LIB |
| Flynn | LNP | LNP |
| Forde | LNP | LNP |
| Forrest | LIB | LIB |
| Fowler | ALP | |
| Franklin | ALP | ALP |
| Fraser | ALP | ALP |
| Fremantle | ALP | ALP |
| Gellibrand | ALP | ALP |
| Gilmore | ALP | ALP |
| Gippsland | NAT | NAT |
| Goldstein | LIB | |
| Gorton | ALP | ALP |
| Grayndler | ALP | ALP |
| Greenway | ALP | ALP |
| Grey | LIB | LIB |
| Griffith | ALP | ALP |
| Groom | LNP | LNP |
| Hasluck | LIB | LIB |
| Hawke | ALP | ALP |
| Herbert | LIB | LIB |
| Higgins | LIB | ALP |
| Hindmarsh | ALP | ALP |
| Hinkler | LNP | LNP |
| Holt | ALP | ALP |
| Hotham | ALP | ALP |
| Hughes | UAP | LIB |
| Hume | LIB | LIB |
| Hunter | ALP | ALP |
| Indi | IND | |
| Isaacs | ALP | ALP |
| Jagajaga | ALP | ALP |
| Kennedy | KAP | KAP |
| Kingsford Smith | ALP | ALP |
| Kingston | ALP | ALP |
| Kooyong | LIB | |
| La Trobe | LIB | LIB |
| Lalor | ALP | ALP |
| Leichhardt | LNP | LNP |
| Lilley | ALP | ALP |
| Lindsay | LIB | LIB |
| Lingiari | ALP | ALP |
| Longman | LNP | ALP |
| Lyne | NAT | NAT |
| Lyons | ALP | ALP |
| Macarthur | ALP | ALP |
| Mackellar | LIB | |
| Macnamara | ALP | ALP |
| Macquarie | ALP | ALP |
| Makin | ALP | ALP |
| Mallee | NAT | NAT |
| Maranoa | LNP | LNP |
| Maribyrnong | ALP | ALP |
| Mayo | CA | |
| McEwen | ALP | ALP |
| McMahon | ALP | ALP |
| McPherson | LNP | LNP |
| Melbourne | GRN | GRN |
| Menzies | LIB | LIB |
| Mitchell | LIB | LIB |
| Monash | LIB | LIB |
| Moncrieff | LNP | LNP |
| Moore | LIB | LIB |
| Moreton | ALP | ALP |
| New England | NAT | NAT |
| Newcastle | ALP | ALP |
| Nicholls | NAT | NAT |
| North Sydney | LIB | LIB |
| O'Connor | LIB | LIB |
| Oxley | ALP | ALP |
| Page | NAT | NAT |
| Parkes | NAT | NAT |
| Parramatta | ALP | ALP |
| Paterson | ALP | ALP |
| Pearce | LIB | ALP |
| Perth | ALP | ALP |
| Petrie | LNP | LNP |
| Rankin | ALP | ALP |
| Reid | LIB | ALP |
| Richmond | ALP | ALP |
| Riverina | NAT | NAT |
| Robertson | LIB | ALP |
| Ryan | LNP | LNP |
| Scullin | ALP | ALP |
| Shortland | ALP | ALP |
| Solomon | ALP | ALP |
| Spence | ALP | ALP |
| Sturt | LIB | LIB |
| Swan | LIB | ALP |
| Sydney | ALP | ALP |
| Tangney | LIB | LIB |
| Wannon | LIB | LIB |
| Warringah | IND | |
| Watson | ALP | ALP |
| Wentworth | LIB | |
| Werriwa | ALP | ALP |
| Whitlam | ALP | ALP |
| Wide Bay | LNP | LNP |
| Wills | ALP | |
| Wright | LNP | LNP |
So what's left?
Curtin is a close race between the incubment Liberal and an independent, Kate Chaney. Other recent polling (e.g. 7 May) has Liberal beating Labor 56:44, but if Ms Chaney out-polls Labor she can count on pulling most of those voters behind her. The most recent (16 May) polling has Chaney at 32% primary vote and the ALP at 13%. The Liberals sit at 38%. On these numbers the finishing order seems set and the IND prediction makes sense.
The Fowler "poll" from 17 May is suspicious, reporting only three numbers: ALP primary vote for high-profile incumbent Kristina Keneally (42%), ALP 2PP vote (45%) and Dai Le's (Independent) 2PP vote at 38% - leaving 17% of voters suspiciously unaccounted for in the 2PP total. This "poll" is in fact a skynews article, citing a Daily Telegraph article hidden behind a paywall, and all-in-all I'm inclined to ignore this as bad data. A better source, in my opinion, is the 7 May YouGov Poll which has a 2PP result which adds to 100, giving 62% to ALP and 38% to the Liberal Courney Nguyen.
Goldstein's polling has an independent unseating an incumbent LNP, which is always worth a second look. The 59:41 is impressive, but if the independent doesn't out-poll the ALP in a 3-way race the preference flows could go anywhere. Interestingly though, the candidate not only has a higher primary vote polled on 16 May than the ALP, but a higher primary vote than the Liberals. Polls on 7 May and 2 May agree with the conclusion also, so it looks like the story checks out and the independent stands a good chance here.
I promised a review of Hughes, where UAP incumbent is not part of the 2PP predictions. On the only poll we have, UAP's primary vote is at 5%, so I'm happy to accept that the incumbent is gone one way or another and stick with the polls.
Indi's independent is in a tight race (53:47) with the Libs but polling, incubmency and seat history all support a continuation of the seat's grey run.
Kooyong is another case of an independent threatening to unseat in incumbent Liberal. The polling has the "other" primary vote at 28% and the ALP at 20%, but this "other" includes two independents and some minor parties (LibDems, Justice, Animal Justice and Australian Values) so it is not clear that the independent in question can pass the ALP's threshold and shoot into first place. A pollin April has the IND primary vote at 31.8% and Labor at 12.8%, and RedBridge in October assumed the race was Lib v IND. in 2019 the contest was Lib v Green. All in all I'm confused and am just going to assume everything is nonsens here. Let's say the Libs hold this for the lack of anything better than incumbency to work from - good nest for Josh Frydenburg here.
Mackellar is polling 53:47 for the Libs against an independent. The Lib incumbency will make that last 3% an up-hill fight, and the most likely upset is that they don't clear the ALP as the "other" primary vote is 23% to Labor's 20% and also includes "the new Liberals". I think 2nd place is the best-case for Sophie Scamps and will call this a Lib win.
Mayo is personally familiar to m as my old electorate. Although the CA candidate is only 2 points ahead 2PP vs the Libs, I agree with the polling that she's popular enough to hold this.It's also worth noting that the state election saw an independent in kavel beat the Libs very recently, so the appetite for a local non-major is alive and well.
Warringah is held by an independent who is polling 59 2PP - a little closer than those a swept as easy calls but still substantial. As with Mayo I understand she's very popular and expect this polling to bare out.
Wentworth has the Libs pollign 56 against and independent. Earlier polls in the year ( 28 April, 21 March and 28 Jan) all had the independent winning, and even on recent polling the numbers seem clear that ALP won't finish second. This is a tough call, but a Liberal incumbency will probably carry this.
Finally, Wills. Polling is ALP 58, Greens 42. This is clearly a very left-leaning seat with a 29% Green primary vote, beating the Libs' 18% outright. Still, ALP is at 41% and can expect to sweep everything right of that for a clear win.
Predictions are in with ALP winning 80 seats, Coalition 63 and a corss bench of 8:
| Electorate | Incumbent | Prediction |
| Adelaide | ALP | ALP |
| Aston | LIB | LIB |
| Ballarat | ALP | ALP |
| Banks | LIB | LIB |
| Barker | LIB | LIB |
| Barton | ALP | ALP |
| Bass | LIB | ALP |
| Bean | ALP | ALP |
| Bendigo | ALP | ALP |
| Bennelong | LIB | LIB |
| Berowra | LIB | LIB |
| Blair | ALP | ALP |
| Blaxland | ALP | ALP |
| Bonner | LNP | LNP |
| Boothby | LIB | ALP |
| Bowman | LNP | LNP |
| Braddon | LIB | ALP |
| Bradfield | LIB | LIB |
| Brand | ALP | ALP |
| Brisbane | LNP | ALP |
| Bruce | ALP | ALP |
| Burt | ALP | ALP |
| Calare | NAT | NAT |
| Calwell | ALP | ALP |
| Canberra | ALP | ALP |
| Canning | LIB | LIB |
| Capricornia | LNP | LNP |
| Casey | LIB | LIB |
| Chifley | ALP | ALP |
| Chisholm | LIB | ALP |
| Clark | IND | IND |
| Cook | LIB | LIB |
| Cooper | ALP | ALP |
| Corangamite | ALP | ALP |
| Corio | ALP | ALP |
| Cowan | ALP | ALP |
| Cowper | NAT | NAT |
| Cunningham | ALP | ALP |
| Curtin | LIB | IND |
| Dawson | IND | LNP |
| Deakin | LIB | LIB |
| Dickson | LNP | LNP |
| Dobell | ALP | ALP |
| Dunkley | ALP | ALP |
| Durack | LIB | LIB |
| Eden-Monaro | ALP | ALP |
| Fadden | LNP | LNP |
| Fairfax | LNP | LNP |
| Farrer | LIB | LIB |
| Fenner | ALP | ALP |
| Fisher | LNP | LNP |
| Flinders | LIB | LIB |
| Flynn | LNP | LNP |
| Forde | LNP | LNP |
| Forrest | LIB | LIB |
| Fowler | ALP | ALP |
| Franklin | ALP | ALP |
| Fraser | ALP | ALP |
| Fremantle | ALP | ALP |
| Gellibrand | ALP | ALP |
| Gilmore | ALP | ALP |
| Gippsland | NAT | NAT |
| Goldstein | LIB | IND |
| Gorton | ALP | ALP |
| Grayndler | ALP | ALP |
| Greenway | ALP | ALP |
| Grey | LIB | LIB |
| Griffith | ALP | ALP |
| Groom | LNP | LNP |
| Hasluck | LIB | LIB |
| Hawke | ALP | ALP |
| Herbert | LIB | LIB |
| Higgins | LIB | ALP |
| Hindmarsh | ALP | ALP |
| Hinkler | LNP | LNP |
| Holt | ALP | ALP |
| Hotham | ALP | ALP |
| Hughes | UAP | LIB |
| Hume | LIB | LIB |
| Hunter | ALP | ALP |
| Indi | IND | IND |
| Isaacs | ALP | ALP |
| Jagajaga | ALP | ALP |
| Kennedy | KAP | KAP |
| Kingsford Smith | ALP | ALP |
| Kingston | ALP | ALP |
| Kooyong | LIB | LIB |
| La Trobe | LIB | LIB |
| Lalor | ALP | ALP |
| Leichhardt | LNP | LNP |
| Lilley | ALP | ALP |
| Lindsay | LIB | LIB |
| Lingiari | ALP | ALP |
| Longman | LNP | ALP |
| Lyne | NAT | NAT |
| Lyons | ALP | ALP |
| Macarthur | ALP | ALP |
| Mackellar | LIB | LIB |
| Macnamara | ALP | ALP |
| Macquarie | ALP | ALP |
| Makin | ALP | ALP |
| Mallee | NAT | NAT |
| Maranoa | LNP | LNP |
| Maribyrnong | ALP | ALP |
| Mayo | CA | CA |
| McEwen | ALP | ALP |
| McMahon | ALP | ALP |
| McPherson | LNP | LNP |
| Melbourne | GRN | GRN |
| Menzies | LIB | LIB |
| Mitchell | LIB | LIB |
| Monash | LIB | LIB |
| Moncrieff | LNP | LNP |
| Moore | LIB | LIB |
| Moreton | ALP | ALP |
| New England | NAT | NAT |
| Newcastle | ALP | ALP |
| Nicholls | NAT | NAT |
| North Sydney | LIB | LIB |
| O'Connor | LIB | LIB |
| Oxley | ALP | ALP |
| Page | NAT | NAT |
| Parkes | NAT | NAT |
| Parramatta | ALP | ALP |
| Paterson | ALP | ALP |
| Pearce | LIB | ALP |
| Perth | ALP | ALP |
| Petrie | LNP | LNP |
| Rankin | ALP | ALP |
| Reid | LIB | ALP |
| Richmond | ALP | ALP |
| Riverina | NAT | NAT |
| Robertson | LIB | ALP |
| Ryan | LNP | LNP |
| Scullin | ALP | ALP |
| Shortland | ALP | ALP |
| Solomon | ALP | ALP |
| Spence | ALP | ALP |
| Sturt | LIB | LIB |
| Swan | LIB | ALP |
| Sydney | ALP | ALP |
| Tangney | LIB | LIB |
| Wannon | LIB | LIB |
| Warringah | IND | IND |
| Watson | ALP | ALP |
| Wentworth | LIB | LIB |
| Werriwa | ALP | ALP |
| Whitlam | ALP | ALP |
| Wide Bay | LNP | LNP |
| Wills | ALP | ALP |
| Wright | LNP | LNP |
