Voting has already opened in all states and territories, and
I have yet to post a prediction. This isn’t the first time, but it is later
than I would like and means the predictions this year are going to be just the bare
basics and not consider the Senate races.
The Barest of Basics
As of this election, Australia has 151 seats. This is one
more than previously with the addition of the Seat of Bean and means that there
has been some significant reshuffling of boundaries. For this reason, the pendulum—a
list of seats and how close they were as a two-party contest last election/by-election—is
based on mathematically adjusted data. 140 of these were simple Coalition vs
Labor contests as shown below. The ‘Current Coalition Vote’ represents the
share of the 2-party vote after mathematically adjusting from past elections.
We can easily make a general prediction by applying a
uniform swing to these seats. In the 2016 election, the Coalition won 50.4% of
the two-party vote while the latest Newspoll
has them down to 48.5%. This is a drop of 1.9 percentage points, which doesn’t
seem like much but would see the Liberals lose 10 seats (Banks, Corangamite,
Capricornia, Dickson, Dunkley, Flynn, Forde, Gilmore, Petrie and Robertson),
including the two Victorian seats already lost in the mathematical adjustment
for border changes (Corangamite & Dunkley).
This assumes a uniform, national swing and that there isn’t a
chance for a minor party to win in any of these seats. It also ignores that
fact that polling since 2016 isn’t a perfect baseline where more recent
by-elections have been held, and we’ve had an unusually high number of those.
On these numbers alone, though, Labor would win 77 seats, more than the 75
needed to form a government. This is without even considering the possibility of
winning some of the remaining 11 seats that are not simple Coalition vs Labor
fights (e.g. Cooper, Wills and Grayndler which are held by Labor but their primary
opponent is the Greens party.) Being 14 seats behind at this point, even a minority
Liberal government looks highly implausible.
Initial Conclusion: ALP
Majority Government.
Slightly Better Dressed Basics
My gut feeling is that Labor’s climate change policy and a
protest against Liberal support for Adani will see the ALP do even better in
inner Melbourne and Sydney, but also that these seats will have a stronger-than-usual
Greens vote. Conversely, Labor may struggle a little more in Queensland because
of the jobs promised by Adani, and half of the ten seats mentioned above (i.e.
Capricornia, Dickson, Flynn, Forde and Petrie) come from that state. Petrie and
Dickson, in particular, are held by the Liberal National Party by 1.6 and 1.7
percentage points respectively so any erosion of the predicted swing of 1.9 could
see the Coalition hold on here.
For simplicity, I’ll use the Electoral Commission’s maps of
Inner Sydney
and Melbourne
to define the seats where Labor may do better than average: Aston, Banks,
Barton, Bennelong, Blaxland, Bradfield, Bruce, Calwell, Chifley, Chisholm,
Cooper, Deakin, Dunkley, Fowler, Fraser, Gellibrand, Goldstein, Grayndler,
Greenway, Higgins, Holt, Hotham, Isaacs, Jagajaga, Kingsford Smith, Kooyong, Lindsay,
Macnamara, Maribyrnong, McMahon, Melbourne, Menzies, Mitchell, North Sydney,
Parramatta, Reid, Scullin, Sydney, Warringah, Watson, Wentworth and Wills.
By standard definitions, a seat is ‘safe’ if it has a margin
of over 6% (i.e. is 56% or more for the Coalition in the above tables, or 44%
or less for Labor). Removing currently safe seats from this list and those
already held by Labor leaves a more manageable list of Banks, Chisholm, Dunkley
and Reid for consideration. Banks and Dunkley would become ALP seats even if
Labor only achieves a swing of 1.9, so let’s call them Labor wins already. On
the other hand, I’ll keep in Warringah, as there has been an active campaign
against Tony Abbott in his seat here.
This gives us a nice short list of seats that require a
little extra thought:
- Capricornia, Dickson, Flynn, Forde and Petrie, which may resist Labor’s swing out of uncertainty how the ALP will react to Adani;
- Chisholm and Reid, where the ALP should do well, and the Greens may be an outside chance;
- Warringah, where Tony Abbott is unpopular;
- Clark, Indi, Kennedy, Mayo, Melbourne and Wentworth, which aren’t in the tables above as independents or minor parties currently hold them;
- Cooper, Grayndler, Higgins and Wills, also not in the tables above and where the Greens are the main threat to the incumbent; and
- Cowper, which in 2016 was a race between the Nationals and high-profile independent Rob Oakeshott and is not in the tables above.
The remaining seats fall 60 to the Coalition and 72 Labor,
which already looks pretty conclusive.
Basics in Formal Attire
Capricornia
With Forde, Capricornia is tied for the most marginal Coalition
seat in Australia. It also has a long Labor history, with the ALP only losing
two elections between 1972 and 2013. Mining jobs aside, if any seat were to
fall to Labor it’d be one of these two. Capricornia is still more agricultural
than mining, and I doubt Adani’s promise of jobs will be enough to save either
of these seats.
Prediction: ALP (possible)
Chisholm
Nestled in Melbourne’s inner east, Chisholm’s vote for the
Liberals in 2016 can be seen as something of an aberration, with Labor holding
the seat before this as far back as 1998. This seems to have been a pro-Turnbull
move, and the incumbent Liberal is not contesting the seat because of Turnbull’s
knifing. 2.9% isn’t a big margin, only slightly larger than the polled national
swing, inflated by support for a fired PM and contesting-elsewhere-as-an-independent
MP. It seems like a correction is inevitable.
Prediction: ALP (likely)
Clark
Independent Andrew Wilkie holds Clark by a massive margin of
17.8. He will easily retain this seat.
Prediction: IND (v likely)
Cooper
Labor holds Cooper in a close race with the Greens. First
preference voting has slightly worsened for the Greens nationally, but Melbourne
is a hotspot for opposition to Adani, so I think they’ll do better than last
time. On the other hand, I think the Greens have a good shot here and had the
highest primary vote. Liberals are not a real contender in Cooper, and whether
Labor or Liberal wins it will still be a vote for an ALP government.
Prediction: GRN (likely)
Cowper
Cowper has been a Nationals seat since before the National
Party was called the National Party. However, Rob Oakeshott is a well-known
independent and has served as a member of parliament for a previous seat. The
current Nationals’ candidate is retiring, leaving a relative unknown to contest
the seat, and the Nationals in NSW have been rocked by accusations of
corruption around Water in the Murray Darling and the activities of Barnaby
Joyce. Add to that the opportunity for conservative voters the option to vote against
the Nationals without supporting Labor, and things are looking good for the independent.
Past voting shows that Rob Oakeshott won’t be able to win on
primary votes alone. Last election he only received 26.3% compared to the
Nationals’ 46.0%. Even Labor and Greens preferences weren’t enough to get above
the Nats’ primary vote, but it got close.
Cowper will see Oakeshott beat Labor and Greens, and scoop
up most of their preferences (probably even more strongly than in 2016. The
question is whether this will be enough. That’s a really tough call, but I
think it probably won’t.
Prediction: NAT
(dubious)
Dickson
Sitting on a 1.7% margin, the seat
would fall to a uniform, national swing of 1.9 to the ALP. It is receiving further
consideration for possible support for Adani, but Dickson is held by Peter
Dutton who is hugely unpopular here for his role in removing Turnbull. So…
Prediction: ALP (possible)
Flynn
Flynn has a margin of 1.0%, but in central Queensland there
is the prospect of jobs from Adani and uncertainty around how Labor will affect
this. If the Adani issue were to save any Coalition seat in Queensland, it’d be
Petrie. If it were to save two, the second would be Flynn. On that basis, I’m very
unsure.
Prediction: ALP (dubious)
Forde
With Capricornia, Forde is tied for the most marginal Coalition
seat in Australia. Mining jobs aside, if any seat were to fall to Labor it’d be
one of these two. Forde is more Coalition-leaning historically than
Capricornia, but I doubt Adani’s promise of jobs will be enough to save either
of these seats.
Prediction: ALP (possible)
Grayndler
The Liberals have no chance in Grayndler. Labor has won the
seat every election since 1972, and in 2016 had a primary vote twice that of
the Liberals. Greens and Liberals polled quite similarly in 2016, so
preferences are all important here. If Liberals stay ahead of the Greens when
all minor parties are ruled out, Greens voters will flow to Labor to create one
of the safest seats by margin in the country (somewhere around 70:30 ALP vs Lib).
If the minor parties help the Greens to out-poll the Coalition, it’s more
complicated. Anyone-but-Labor voters will boost the Greens, but most Liberals
favour the centre-left ALP over the left-left Greens. This is what happened in
2016, causing the ALP v Greens race that makes this seat worth a second look. In
that race, Labor was a clear winner with a margin over the Greens of more than
15%.
Prediction: ALP (v likely)
Higgins
The Liberals hold this seat by 7.4%, making it safe. In
fact, they’ve held the seat since ’72. The Greens did well here, beating Labor,
but the Liberals won on a primary vote of 51.6%, and the magnitude of swings
required to see anyone else win is radical.
Prediction: LIB (v likely)
Indi
Indi has been coalition-held since 1972 if you ignore the
incumbent independent, Cathy McGowan. And we will ignore her for now, as she is
retiring. Second in 2016 were the Liberals, and then the Nationals with Labor
only polling 10.1%. It is almost unheard of for independents to succeed
independents. McGowan’s personal brand is just that, personal, and I’d expect
this to resolve easily back to the Coalition.
Prediction: LIB (v
likely)
Kennedy
Bob Katter has held Kennedy since 1993, and with a margin of
11%, he isn’t going to stop now.
Prediction: KAP (v
likely)
Mayo
Rebekah Sharkie (Centre Alliance) beat Georgina Downer
(Liberals) with a narrow 2.9% margin but has a reasonably high satisfaction in
Mayo. Enthusiasm for a return of the Downer line and anger about Sharkie’s
dual-citizenship situation in the 2018 by-election may have waned slightly,
particularly with the general swing against the Libs. After accusations that
Georgina had been “parachuted in” last by-election, the Libs couldn’t seriously
propose any local candidate as the best choice in town without them being seen
as even worse than Downer. Parachuting in another candidate would obviously
backfire too. That leaves the Libs stuck with Downer, and Downer stuck with
Mayo this time around. 2022 may be different, but this once safe Liberal seat
has probably been conceded by the party already.
Prediction: CA (v likely)
Melbourne
Melbourne is the Greens’ only seat. They hold it against the
Liberals who narrowly out-polled the ALP 24.8% to 24.0%. The predicted swing to
Labor should get the Labor party to second place, and Liberal preferences will
decide the race rather than Labor’s. This could massively undermine the Greens
here. On the other hand, being the most prominent Greens candidate in the House
of Reps races has its perks, and Adani protests are big here. Greens retaining
the seat is certainly not out of the question.
Prediction: GRN
(dubious)
Petrie
With the LNP sitting on a 1.6%
margin, a uniform, national swing of 1.9 to the ALP is a threat. The generally
Liberal trend in past votes is a consideration in the Liberal Nationals’ favour.
If the Adani issue was to save any Coalition seat in Queensland, it’d be Petrie.
On the assumption that at least one seat will be influenced by the coal mine…
Prediction: LNP (possible)
Reid
Reid’s Liberal is sitting on a 4.7% margin, which is almost
safe, and a history of Labor voting from 1972 until 2013, which is very much
not safe at all. Adani, Turnbull and other issues are likely to weigh heavily
here.
Prediction: ALP
(possible).
Warringah
Warringah is only on this list because of anger against Tony
Abbott and a concerted campaign to cost him his seat even among traditional Liberals.
With 11.1% as a margin, this shouldn’t be in play, but it is. However, there
are two independents, Fraser Anning’s Conservative Nationals, United Australia
and the Christian Democratic Party to scoop up protest votes and dissipate
anger before preferences flow back to the Liberals. I’m expecting Abbott will hold
this seat, but it is uncertain. Though unlikely in my opinion, this is also
probably United Australia’s best shot at a lower house seat.
Prediction: LIB
(dubious)
Wentworth
Wentworth was won in a by-election by independent Dr Kerryn
Phelps after Malcolm Turnbull resigned, but after boundary changes is suggested
to be 51% Liberal. This is probably doubtful, as the new inclusions in the seat
didn’t have the option of voting for Phelps previously, and thus their
attitudes aren’t properly reflected in their past voting data. Additionally, 1%
wouldn’t be enough to win in a contest against Labor.
Anger about the ousting of Turnbull has probably lessened,
but this looks like a comfortable seat for Phelps.
Prediction: IND (likely)
Wills
Excepting the 1992 by-election and 1993 general election
appointing an Independent, Wills has been won by Labor in every contest since
1972. Last year was a close race against the Greens which complicatedly picked
up a lot of Liberals’ votes over Labor. The ALP’s margin here is only 4.9 and
Adani will likely tighten this in Melbourne’s north-west. It seems the long Labor
history has made Liberals in this seat willing to side with Greens, and that
makes this a tough seat to get a feel for. I’m going to play it safe and stick
with what I know.
Prediction: ALP
(dubious)
Conclusion
Factoring these predictions into our broader table, we get
the final prediction for the House of Reps:
Prediction: ALP
Majority Government
ALP: 80
Coalition: 65 (LIB: 38; LNP: 17; NAT: 10)
Cross-bench: 6 (GRN: 2; CA: 1; KAP: 1; IND: 2)
