The Lonesome West part 2

[Link to part 1]

LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY

While deciding how to apportion the remaining undecided legislative assembly seats, I turned my attention to predicting the legislative council. My intent was to do those predictions first, then close out the post with my decision; unfortunately my resolution was a weak one little better than flipping a coin (though that is essentially what things come down to now that we do not include tossups in our predictions) so i thought that might prove a bit anticlimactic. So, here is the legislative assembly prediction as we left them last post:

Electorate	Current Incumbent	Prediction
Albany	ALP	ALP
Armadale	ALP	ALP
Balcatta	LIB	ALP
Baldivis	ALP	ALP
Bassendean	ALP	ALP
Bateman	LIB	LIB
Belmont	LIB	ALP
Bicton	LIB	???
Bunbury	LIB	LIB
Burns Beach	LIB	???
Butler	ALP	ALP
Cannington	ALP	ALP
Carine	LIB	LIB
Central Wheatbelt	NAT	NAT
Churchlands	LIB	LIB
Cockburn	ALP	ALP
Collie-Preston	ALP	ALP
Cottesloe	LIB	LIB
Darling Range	LIB	LIB
Dawesville	LIB	LIB
Forrestfield	LIB	ALP
Fremantle	ALP	ALP
Geraldton	LIB	LIB
Girrawheen	ALP	ALP
Hillarys	LIB	LIB
Jandakot	LIB	LIB
Joondalup	LIB	???
Kalamunda	LIB	LIB
Kalgoorlie	NAT	NAT
Kimberley	ALP	ALP
Kingsley	LIB	LIB
Kwinana	ALP	ALP
Mandurah	ALP	ALP
Maylands	ALP	ALP
Midland	ALP	ALP
Mirrabooka	ALP	ALP
Moore	NAT	NAT
Morley	LIB	ALP
Mount Lawley	LIB	ALP
Murray-Wellington	LIB	LIB
Nedlands	LIB	LIB
North West Central	NAT	NAT
Perth	LIB	ALP
Pilbara	NAT	NAT
Riverton	LIB	LIB
Rockingham	ALP	ALP
Roe	NAT	NAT
Scarborough	LIB	LIB
South Perth	LIB	LIB
Southern River	LIB	???
Swan Hills	LIB	ALP
Thornlie	ALP	ALP
Vasse	LIB	LIB
Victoria Park	ALP	ALP
Wanneroo	LIB	???
Warnbro	ALP	ALP
Warren-Blackwood	NAT	NAT
West Swan	ALP	ALP
Willagee	ALP	ALP

There are five, currently Liberal seats as yet un-called. In order from most likely to remain with the LIBs to least, they are: Burns Beach, Wanneroo, Southern River, Joondalup and Bicton. Based on all the polling considered, Labor should get over 50% of the vote, but not 60%. Obviously these numbers will vary dramatically from seat to seat, but since we have no better solution presenting itself at short notice, 3 of these seats will be allocated to the ALP and two to the LIBs. This is not really based on any rational application of the figures, but it can't be any worse than flipping a coin, right? Based on the above order, the logical (and I use the word "logical" loosely) prediction is:

Electorate	Current Incumbent	Prediction
Albany	ALP	ALP
Armadale	ALP	ALP
Balcatta	LIB	ALP
Baldivis	ALP	ALP
Bassendean	ALP	ALP
Bateman	LIB	LIB
Belmont	LIB	ALP
Bicton	LIB	ALP
Bunbury	LIB	LIB
Burns Beach	LIB	LIB
Butler	ALP	ALP
Cannington	ALP	ALP
Carine	LIB	LIB
Central Wheatbelt	NAT	NAT
Churchlands	LIB	LIB
Cockburn	ALP	ALP
Collie-Preston	ALP	ALP
Cottesloe	LIB	LIB
Darling Range	LIB	LIB
Dawesville	LIB	LIB
Forrestfield	LIB	ALP
Fremantle	ALP	ALP
Geraldton	LIB	LIB
Girrawheen	ALP	ALP
Hillarys	LIB	LIB
Jandakot	LIB	LIB
Joondalup	LIB	ALP
Kalamunda	LIB	LIB
Kalgoorlie	NAT	NAT
Kimberley	ALP	ALP
Kingsley	LIB	LIB
Kwinana	ALP	ALP
Mandurah	ALP	ALP
Maylands	ALP	ALP
Midland	ALP	ALP
Mirrabooka	ALP	ALP
Moore	NAT	NAT
Morley	LIB	ALP
Mount Lawley	LIB	ALP
Murray-Wellington	LIB	LIB
Nedlands	LIB	LIB
North West Central	NAT	NAT
Perth	LIB	ALP
Pilbara	NAT	NAT
Riverton	LIB	LIB
Rockingham	ALP	ALP
Roe	NAT	NAT
Scarborough	LIB	LIB
South Perth	LIB	LIB
Southern River	LIB	ALP
Swan Hills	LIB	ALP
Thornlie	ALP	ALP
Vasse	LIB	LIB
Victoria Park	ALP	ALP
Wanneroo	LIB	LIB
Warnbro	ALP	ALP
Warren-Blackwood	NAT	NAT
West Swan	ALP	ALP
Willagee	ALP	ALP

This gives the ALP thirty two seats, and an outright majority. This seems like a much slimmer margin than many are predicting--maybe i should have given the ALP all the tossups and made it thirty four. We'll see.

LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL

Now to the LegCo. This is elected the same way we used to elect the Federal Senate; you know, the old one-above-the-line-or-all-below method that gave so much power to preference flows? Fortunately, as always, the illustrious Antony Green has produced his usual calculator to help calculate the flows for us based on a user-nominated primary vote that follows the above-the-line ticket.

While we have lots of polls available for the two-party contest, our best source of primary-vote numbers is this data from WAtoday. Putting this data into the calculator (where possible--the Nationals are not contesting the three metropolitan regions) gets us only so far, though. For all the parties listed as "other" I created three categories: "minor parties", "micro parties" and "independents".

I had to fudge the definitions of these groups a little, but basically minor parties are those that people are likely to have heard of before--mostly because they contest elections at various levels of government regularly. In this case they are: Australian Christians (ACP), Family First (FFP), Liberal Democrats (LDP), Shooters, Fishers and Farmers (SFF) and Socialist Alliance (SA).

Micro parties here are all other parties: Animal Justice Party (AJP), Daylight Saving Party (DSP), FLUORIDE FREE WA (FFW), Micro Business Party (MBP) and Flux The System! (FLX)

These definitions are subjective, and thus blurred. AJP and FLX could be counted as minor parties, and ACP and SA might be pushed into the micro party category. Also, I have included Julie Matheson in the independents despite having a party and thus, one assumes, larger reach.

Most parties at these levels receive between 0.1% and 2% of the primary vote. I thus gave every minor party a 2% share of the primary vote, micro parties 1% and independents 0.5%. I do not think the exact figures will matter too much, as the primary purpose is to follow the preference flows. As Antony Green has already calculated, FLUORIDE FREE WA is well enough positioned in the preference web that they could win a seat with a primary vote as low as 0.2%. Besides, that noble 5% who vote below the line will always make this game one of approximations. Then again,

Entering these values always pushed to total over 100%, though never by much, and the calculator will reduce the figures across the board (and complain that too many entries have the same figures entered). This may slightly compensate for the natural reduction of the primary vote in the upper houses relative to the lower resulting from a wider candidate pool.

These numbers entered and the calculations run, the results produced are:

EAST METROPOLITAN
1     Alanna Clohesy     WA Labor
2     Donna Faragher     Liberal Party
3     Samantha Rowe     WA Labor
4     Alyssa Hayden     Liberal Party
5     Tim Clifford     The Greens (WA)
6     John Watt     FLUORIDE FREE WA

NORTH METROPOLITAN
1     Alannah MacTiernan     WA Labor
2     Peter Collier     Liberal Party
3     Martin Pritchard     WA Labor
4     Michael Mischin     Liberal Party
5     Alison Xamon     The Greens (WA)
6     Henry Heng     Family First

SOUTH METROPOLITAN
1     Sue Ellery     WA Labor
2     Nick Goiran     Liberal Party
3     Kate Doust     WA Labor
4     Simon O'Brien     Liberal Party
5     Lynn MacLaren     The Greens (WA)
6     Wilson Tucker     Daylight Saving Party

AGRICULTURAL
1     Darren West     WA Labor
2     Jim Chown     Liberal Party
3     Laurie Graham     WA Labor
4     Steve Martin     Liberal Party
5     Rick Mazza     Shooters, Fishers and Farmers
6     Connor Whittle     Liberal Democrats

MINING AND PASTORAL
1     Stephen Dawson     WA Labor
2     Ken Baston     Liberal Party
3     Kyle McGinn     WA Labor
4     Mark Lewis     Liberal Party
5     Kai Shanks     Flux The System!
6     Robin Chapple     The Greens (WA)

SOUTH WEST
1     Sally Talbot     WA Labor
2     Steve Thomas     Liberal Party
3     Adele Farina     WA Labor
4     Wade De Campo     Liberal Party
5     Hayley Green     FLUORIDE FREE WA
6     Diane Evers     The Greens (WA)

The two ALP and two LIB candidates in each seat are constant as, on the figures used, they automatically reach 2 quotas on their primary vote. Interestingly, there is never enough carry-over in these numbers to grant a third seat. The Greens do very well, winning a seat in each region except Agricultural. The other parties that fall in are a mix of well-known, unsurprising nominations (Family First; Shooters, Fishers and Farmers; Lib Dems), a couple of self-explanatory single-issue parties (FLUORIDE FREE WA (twice) and Daylight Savings Party) and a wildcard that you always get in this preference-ticket system (Flux the System!--though they certainly know how to milk the current set up for every vote).

I think One Nation will actually do better than reported here and pick up some seats after a very high-profile campaign; I just don't know where and in place of whom. I also think the Nationals will pick up several seats, probably replacing the greens in some cases (particularly the non-metropolitan regions). However I don't know for sure where to slip these into the predictions, and both the NATs and the ONP are excluded from the lucrative preference-swapping quagmire than Glenn Druery (yes, he's back!) has produced. So for expediency, NAT and ONP are not included in the prediction.


While the final seat in each case is highly speculative (and in some of these cases I'd suggest the same is true of the second-last) what seems certain is that a LegCo cross-bench will hold the balance of power in WA after this weekend (though perhaps not the cross-bench suggested above, probably with more One-Nation elements and potentially smaller (and thus more powerful) if a few NATs show up).

The Lonesome West

Barring a surprise decision in Queensland or Tasmania to chance the polls, WA is our only election this year and it has come about already.

If 2016 taught us anything with Brexit and the POTUS elections it is that polling cannot be trusted. Unfortunately I have neither the time nor creativity to work out another option before the weekend, so we will be using the tried-and-sometimes-true methods that rely on opinion polling. But first, the pendulum.

Divided along Coalition-ALP lines, the pendulum looks something identical to this:

Electorate	Party	Margin
Albany	ALP	1.0%
Armadale	ALP	9.6%
Balcatta	LIB	7.1%
Baldivis	ALP	6.4%
Bassendean	ALP	5.1%
Bateman	LIB	23.1%
Belmont	LIB	1.0%
Bicton	LIB	10.0%
Bunbury	LIB	12.2%
Burns Beach	LIB	11.3%
Butler	ALP	1.0%
Cannington	ALP	2.1%
Carine	LIB	18.3%
Central Wheatbelt	NAT	21.5%
Churchlands	LIB	20.0%
Cockburn	ALP	4.6%
Collie-Preston	ALP	-2.9%
Cottesloe	LIB	21.1%
Darling Range	LIB	13.1%
Dawesville	LIB	12.7%
Forrestfield	LIB	2.2%
Fremantle	ALP	15.4%
Geraldton	LIB	22.8%
Girrawheen	ALP	2.8%
Hillarys	LIB	16.0%
Jandakot	LIB	18.3%
Joondalup	LIB	10.4%
Kalamunda	LIB	10.3%
Kalgoorlie	NAT	16.5%
Kimberley	ALP	5.1%
Kingsley	LIB	14.0%
Kwinana	ALP	4.3%
Mandurah	ALP	7.7%
Maylands	ALP	2.7%
Midland	ALP	0.5%
Mirrabooka	ALP	4.6%
Moore	NAT	23.2%
Morley	LIB	4.7%
Mount Lawley	LIB	8.9%
Murray-Wellington	LIB	12.0%
Nedlands	LIB	19.1%
North West Central	NAT	11.5%
Perth	LIB	2.8%
Pilbara	NAT	11.5%
Riverton	LIB	12.7%
Rockingham	ALP	13.2%
Roe	NAT	27.6%
Scarborough	LIB	17.3%
South Perth	LIB	20.0%
Southern River	LIB	10.9%
Swan Hills	LIB	3.7%
Thornlie	ALP	1.8%
Vasse	LIB	21.2%
Victoria Park	ALP	4.0%
Wanneroo	LIB	11.0%
Warnbro	ALP	10.6%
Warren-Blackwood	NAT	15.7%
West Swan	ALP	-0.9%
Willagee	ALP	2.5%

(Source: Antony Green's Election Blog)

However, it is important to note that six National Party seats (Central Wheatbelt, Kalgoorlie, Moore, North West Central, Roe and Warren-Blackwood) and one Liberal seat (Geraldton) are more closely contested within the Coalition than with the ALP:

Electorate	Party	Margin
Central Wheatbelt	NAT	8.9%
Geraldton	LIB	10.9%
Kalgoorlie	NAT	3.2%
Moore	NAT	5.9%
North West Central	NAT	10.5%
Roe	NAT	16.7%
Warren-Blackwood	NAT	7.2%

This is a reasonably normal pattern in strong National-voting seats, since the two parties are similarly aligned and the base vote is enough to overcome the "spoiler effect" you would have in a first-past-the-post system (also aided by the absence of such a system). In all of these seats, the ALP is more than 10% behind the leading Coalition party, and in most cases more than 20%. It is usually safe to rule these seats as a Coalition win, but the swing in this election could be substantial enough to bring this into question and WA has the weakest LIB-NAT Coalition in the country (to the point that it is probably wrong to refer to them as such).

In 2013 the state-wide 2PP result was LIB 57.29% (presumably including, by preference flows, the vast majority of the NAT vote) against ALP 42.71%. To bring the closest of these seven seats (North West Central) over the line, the local swing must exceed 11.5%, or a result of LIB 45.79%, ALP 54.21%.

ReachTel's latest polling has the result at LIB 48-ALP 52, which is within the 3 percentage point margin of error of this result. Galaxy has this even worse for the Coalition at LIB 46-ALP 54 which is a rounding error away from colouring North West Central red. And "leaked" internal polling from the Liberal party (which may be skewed to scare LIB voters from straying too far) has the result at LIB 43-ALP 57 which is a swing of over 14 percentage points, within striking range of taking Kalgoorlie (margin vs ALP 16.5%) and Warren-Blackwood (margin vs ALP 15.7%) as well.

An (admittedly very brief) search for polling on the Nationals vs Liberals in WA was not very helpful, but my gut feeling is that the Nationals will widen the gap in these seats. The NAT vote in these seats is too big to be a protest vote that will be shepherded back to prioritising the LIBs by bad poll numbers; it is, instead, a genuine vote for an alternative party. Further the preference shenanigans in WA have been strange this cycle, with the LIBs preferencing One Nation above their Coalition partners and the NATs retaliating by preferencing the Greens, of all parties. I think the NAT voters will feel this betrayal more than the LIB voters, and this may shore up the NAT vote further. Therefore, I think we can call all 6 above NAT seats safe from the LIBs (with the possible exception of Kalgoorlie, which only became NAT last election and has a 3.2% margin against the LIBs, but then again has a stronger history with the ALP than either Coalition party).

Geraldton, however, probably has a strong enough lead to hold off a swing to the NATs, though historically has accepted ALP candidates quite well too.

This means, with the possible exception of a three-way race in Kalgoorlie, we can probably assume no real shift in seats (though perhaps a slight pro-NAT shift in raw numbers) between the Coalition seats.

The other spanner in the psephological workings in WA is, of course, the eternal phoenix that is the One Nation Party. Early polls suggested ONP might reach around 13% of the primary vote, though more recent data suggests this is around 8 or 9%. I am very cautious about all of these numbers as One Nation is the kind of out-there, Trump-style, media-grabbing anomaly that repeatedly threw us and polling companies off in 2017. However, even if ONP performs better than either of these estimates, it's only shot at a lower-house seat is to out-perform a major party and sweep up the preferences. On the latest data the Greens are doing better than ONP, and would naturally benefit from ALP preferences while the preference deal with the LIBs may have tarnished ONP with NAT voters (besides which, out-polling the NATs in the majority of seats would not net a huge pool of preferences to draw from in the first place). The only option, then, seems to be for the ONP to outperform the LIBs. And any seat where the LIBs are coming vaguely close to ONP's primary vote numbers would have to be a safe ALP seat to begin with--probably not good hunting grounds for ONP preferences. Thus, with caution and a healthy respect for the oft-written off right-wing media-loving outsiders of this world, I would suggest ONP is unlikely to win a lower house seat.

With no seats passing to ONP, no real change among Coalition parties and a Greens vote so low in most of the mining-dependent West that I haven't even really addressed it, the real contest seems to remain on the Coalition vs ALP scale. We can return to out initial pendulum, then.

Starting with the most extreme polling, the "leaked" Liberal polling, a swing of 14% against the Coalition parties would look like this:

Electorate	Party	Margin	Polling	Conclusion
Albany	ALP	1.0%	+14%	15.0%
Armadale	ALP	9.6%	+14%	23.6%
Balcatta	LIB	7.1%	-14%	6.9%
Baldivis	ALP	6.4%	+14%	20.4%
Bassendean	ALP	5.1%	+14%	19.1%
Bateman	LIB	23.1%	-14%	9.10%
Belmont	LIB	1.0%	-14%	13.0%
Bicton	LIB	10.0%	-14%	4.0%
Bunbury	LIB	12.2%	-14%	1.8%
Burns Beach	LIB	11.3%	-14%	2.7%
Butler	ALP	1.0%	+14%	15.0%
Cannington	ALP	2.1%	+14%	16.1%
Carine	LIB	18.3%	-14%	4.30%
Central Wheatbelt	NAT	21.5%	-14%	7.50%
Churchlands	LIB	20.0%	-14%	6.00%
Cockburn	ALP	4.6%	+14%	18.6%
Collie-Preston	ALP	-2.9%	+14%	11.1%
Cottesloe	LIB	21.1%	-14%	7.10%
Darling Range	LIB	13.1%	-14%	0.9%
Dawesville	LIB	12.7%	-14%	1.3%
Forrestfield	LIB	2.2%	-14%	11.8%
Fremantle	ALP	15.4%	+14%	29.4%
Geraldton	LIB	22.8%	-14%	8.80%
Girrawheen	ALP	2.8%	+14%	16.8%
Hillarys	LIB	16.0%	-14%	2.00%
Jandakot	LIB	18.3%	-14%	4.30%
Joondalup	LIB	10.4%	-14%	3.6%
Kalamunda	LIB	10.3%	-14%	3.7%
Kalgoorlie	NAT	16.5%	-14%	2.50%
Kimberley	ALP	5.1%	+14%	19.1%
Kingsley	LIB	14.0%	-14%	0.00%
Kwinana	ALP	4.3%	+14%	18.3%
Mandurah	ALP	7.7%	+14%	21.7%
Maylands	ALP	2.7%	+14%	16.7%
Midland	ALP	0.5%	+14%	14.5%
Mirrabooka	ALP	4.6%	+14%	18.6%
Moore	NAT	23.2%	-14%	9.20%
Morley	LIB	4.7%	-14%	9.3%
Mount Lawley	LIB	8.9%	-14%	5.1%
Murray-Wellington	LIB	12.0%	-14%	2.0%
Nedlands	LIB	19.1%	-14%	5.10%
North West Central	NAT	11.5%	-14%	2.5%
Perth	LIB	2.8%	-14%	11.2%
Pilbara	NAT	11.5%	-14%	2.5%
Riverton	LIB	12.7%	-14%	1.3%
Rockingham	ALP	13.2%	+14%	27.2%
Roe	NAT	27.6%	-14%	13.60%
Scarborough	LIB	17.3%	-14%	3.30%
South Perth	LIB	20.0%	-14%	6.00%
Southern River	LIB	10.9%	-14%	3.1%
Swan Hills	LIB	3.7%	-14%	10.3%
Thornlie	ALP	1.8%	+14%	15.8%
Vasse	LIB	21.2%	-14%	7.20%
Victoria Park	ALP	4.0%	+14%	18.0%
Wanneroo	LIB	11.0%	-14%	3.0%
Warnbro	ALP	10.6%	+14%	24.6%
Warren-Blackwood	NAT	15.7%	-14%	1.70%
West Swan	ALP	-0.9%	+14%	13.1%
Willagee	ALP	2.5%	+14%	16.5%

This gives the ALP 18 formerly LIB seats and two NAT seats; the 20 seats referred to in the article that is also the source of this polling data. Kingsley also remains in doubt. In reality, I am not sure the NAT seats of North West Central and Pilbara would suffer the full brunt of this swing as this data from WAtoday has the NATs actually increasing their primary vote to 6.4 (from 6.05 in 2013) separate to the LIB decline to 32.5 (from 47.1). Thus the swing may be only minor away from the NATs or even in their favour.

Under the Galaxy and ReachTel polling the NATs would retain both of these seats, and I am happy to call these safe retains for the NATs at this stage.

By comparison to the extreme swing of 14% explored above, the most mild is the ReachTel poll's suggested 9%, which would look like this:

Electorate	Party	Margin	Polling	Conclusion
Albany	ALP	1.0%	+9%	10.0%
Armadale	ALP	9.6%	+9%	18.6%
Balcatta	LIB	7.1%	-9%	1.9%
Baldivis	ALP	6.4%	+9%	15.4%
Bassendean	ALP	5.1%	+9%	14.1%
Bateman	LIB	23.1%	-9%	14.1%
Belmont	LIB	1.0%	-9%	8.0%
Bicton	LIB	10.0%	-9%	1.0%
Bunbury	LIB	12.2%	-9%	3.2%
Burns Beach	LIB	11.3%	-9%	2.3%
Butler	ALP	1.0%	+9%	10.0%
Cannington	ALP	2.1%	+9%	11.1%
Carine	LIB	18.3%	-9%	9.3%
Central Wheatbelt	NAT	21.5%	-9%	12.5%
Churchlands	LIB	20.0%	-9%	11.0%
Cockburn	ALP	4.6%	+9%	13.6%
Collie-Preston	ALP	-2.9%	+9%	6.1%
Cottesloe	LIB	21.1%	-9%	12.1%
Darling Range	LIB	13.1%	-9%	4.1%
Dawesville	LIB	12.7%	-9%	3.7%
Forrestfield	LIB	2.2%	-9%	6.8%
Fremantle	ALP	15.4%	+9%	24.4%
Geraldton	LIB	22.8%	-9%	13.8%
Girrawheen	ALP	2.8%	+9%	11.8%
Hillarys	LIB	16.0%	-9%	7.0%
Jandakot	LIB	18.3%	-9%	9.3%
Joondalup	LIB	10.4%	-9%	1.4%
Kalamunda	LIB	10.3%	-9%	1.3%
Kalgoorlie	NAT	16.5%	-9%	7.5%
Kimberley	ALP	5.1%	+9%	14.1%
Kingsley	LIB	14.0%	-9%	5.0%
Kwinana	ALP	4.3%	+9%	13.3%
Mandurah	ALP	7.7%	+9%	16.7%
Maylands	ALP	2.7%	+9%	11.7%
Midland	ALP	0.5%	+9%	9.5%
Mirrabooka	ALP	4.6%	+9%	13.6%
Moore	NAT	23.2%	-9%	14.2%
Morley	LIB	4.7%	-9%	4.3%
Mount Lawley	LIB	8.9%	-9%	0.1%
Murray-Wellington	LIB	12.0%	-9%	3.0%
Nedlands	LIB	19.1%	-9%	10.1%
North West Central	NAT	11.5%	-9%	2.5%
Perth	LIB	2.8%	-9%	6.2%
Pilbara	NAT	11.5%	-9%	2.5%
Riverton	LIB	12.7%	-9%	3.7%
Rockingham	ALP	13.2%	+9%	22.2%
Roe	NAT	27.6%	-9%	18.6%
Scarborough	LIB	17.3%	-9%	8.3%
South Perth	LIB	20.0%	-9%	11.0%
Southern River	LIB	10.9%	-9%	1.9%
Swan Hills	LIB	3.7%	-9%	5.3%
Thornlie	ALP	1.8%	+9%	10.8%
Vasse	LIB	21.2%	-9%	12.2%
Victoria Park	ALP	4.0%	+9%	13.0%
Wanneroo	LIB	11.0%	-9%	2.0%
Warnbro	ALP	10.6%	+9%	19.6%
Warren-Blackwood	NAT	15.7%	-9%	6.7%
West Swan	ALP	-0.9%	+9%	8.1%
Willagee	ALP	2.5%	+9%	11.5%

Let us then take these as the outer limits of possible results; and seat that is predicted identically in the two preceding tables can be called at this point, along with the previously mentioned retention of North West Central and Pilbara for the NATs. I have also given Kingsley to the LIBs as it is a tossup only under the "leaked" data, and Liberal under any more mild swing:

Electorate	Current Incumbent	“Leaked” Poll	ReachTel Poll	Prediction
Albany	ALP	15.0%	10.0%	ALP
Armadale	ALP	23.6%	18.6%	ALP
Balcatta	LIB	6.9%	1.9%	ALP
Baldivis	ALP	20.4%	15.4%	ALP
Bassendean	ALP	19.1%	14.1%	ALP
Bateman	LIB	9.1%	14.1%	LIB
Belmont	LIB	13.0%	8.0%	ALP
Bicton	LIB	4.0%	1.0%	???
Bunbury	LIB	1.8%	3.2%	???
Burns Beach	LIB	2.7%	2.3%	???
Butler	ALP	15.0%	10.0%	ALP
Cannington	ALP	16.1%	11.1%	ALP
Carine	LIB	4.3%	9.3%	LIB
Central Wheatbelt	NAT	7.5%	12.5%	NAT
Churchlands	LIB	6.0%	11.0%	LIB
Cockburn	ALP	18.6%	13.6%	ALP
Collie-Preston	ALP	11.1%	6.1%	ALP
Cottesloe	LIB	7.1%	12.1%	LIB
Darling Range	LIB	0.9%	4.1%	???
Dawesville	LIB	1.3%	3.7%	???
Forrestfield	LIB	11.8%	6.8%	ALP
Fremantle	ALP	29.4%	24.4%	ALP
Geraldton	LIB	8.8%	13.8%	LIB
Girrawheen	ALP	16.8%	11.8%	ALP
Hillarys	LIB	2.0%	7.0%	LIB
Jandakot	LIB	4.3%	9.3%	LIB
Joondalup	LIB	3.6%	1.4%	???
Kalamunda	LIB	3.7%	1.3%	???
Kalgoorlie	NAT	2.5%	7.5%	NAT
Kimberley	ALP	19.1%	14.1%	ALP
Kingsley	LIB	0.0%	5.0%	LIB
Kwinana	ALP	18.3%	13.3%	ALP
Mandurah	ALP	21.7%	16.7%	ALP
Maylands	ALP	16.7%	11.7%	ALP
Midland	ALP	14.5%	9.5%	ALP
Mirrabooka	ALP	18.6%	13.6%	ALP
Moore	NAT	9.2%	14.2%	NAT
Morley	LIB	9.3%	4.3%	ALP
Mount Lawley	LIB	5.1%	0.1%	ALP
Murray-Wellington	LIB	2.0%	3.0%	???
Nedlands	LIB	5.1%	10.1%	LIB
North West Central	NAT	2.5%	2.5%	NAT
Perth	LIB	11.2%	6.2%	ALP
Pilbara	NAT	2.5%	2.5%	NAT
Riverton	LIB	1.3%	3.7%	???
Rockingham	ALP	27.2%	22.2%	ALP
Roe	NAT	13.6%	18.6%	NAT
Scarborough	LIB	3.3%	8.3%	LIB
South Perth	LIB	6.0%	11.0%	LIB
Southern River	LIB	3.1%	1.9%	???
Swan Hills	LIB	10.3%	5.3%	ALP
Thornlie	ALP	15.8%	10.8%	ALP
Vasse	LIB	7.2%	12.2%	LIB
Victoria Park	ALP	18.0%	13.0%	ALP
Wanneroo	LIB	3.0%	2.0%	???
Warnbro	ALP	24.6%	19.6%	ALP
Warren-Blackwood	NAT	1.7%	6.7%	NAT
West Swan	ALP	13.1%	8.1%	ALP
Willagee	ALP	16.5%	11.5%	ALP

Already things are looking bad for the Coalition; the ALP has 29 seats and the LIB-NATs have 19 (12 and 7 respectively) with 11 undecided. If the ALP wins any one of those 11, they have a majority. For those curious, the Galaxy poll predicts a swing of 11%, which broadly agrees with the ReachTel results, but puts Wanneroo as a tossup and gives Bicton, Joondalup, Kalamunda and Southern River to the ALP.

Since we don't allow ourselves tossups any more, history is as good a method as any for flipping the coin. Darling Range, has been a Coalition-held seat since being re-established 1977, and indeed through all of its historic incarnations, with one exception of a Liberal-turned-Independent from 1990-1993. Dawesville has been Liberal since it was founded in 1996. Kalamunda has only been around since 2008, with a historical predecessor from 1974 to 1989, but has always been Liberal in those periods. And Murray-Wellington (also called Murray in four of its previous incarnations) has been held by a Coalition party or their predecessors since 1904 with one brief ALP interruption from 1989 to 1993.

Electorate	Current Incumbent	Prediction
Albany	ALP	ALP
Armadale	ALP	ALP
Balcatta	LIB	ALP
Baldivis	ALP	ALP
Bassendean	ALP	ALP
Bateman	LIB	LIB
Belmont	LIB	ALP
Bicton	LIB	???
Bunbury	LIB	???
Burns Beach	LIB	???
Butler	ALP	ALP
Cannington	ALP	ALP
Carine	LIB	LIB
Central Wheatbelt	NAT	NAT
Churchlands	LIB	LIB
Cockburn	ALP	ALP
Collie-Preston	ALP	ALP
Cottesloe	LIB	LIB
Darling Range	LIB	LIB
Dawesville	LIB	LIB
Forrestfield	LIB	ALP
Fremantle	ALP	ALP
Geraldton	LIB	LIB
Girrawheen	ALP	ALP
Hillarys	LIB	LIB
Jandakot	LIB	LIB
Joondalup	LIB	???
Kalamunda	LIB	LIB
Kalgoorlie	NAT	NAT
Kimberley	ALP	ALP
Kingsley	LIB	LIB
Kwinana	ALP	ALP
Mandurah	ALP	ALP
Maylands	ALP	ALP
Midland	ALP	ALP
Mirrabooka	ALP	ALP
Moore	NAT	NAT
Morley	LIB	ALP
Mount Lawley	LIB	ALP
Murray-Wellington	LIB	LIB
Nedlands	LIB	LIB
North West Central	NAT	NAT
Perth	LIB	ALP
Pilbara	NAT	NAT
Riverton	LIB	???
Rockingham	ALP	ALP
Roe	NAT	NAT
Scarborough	LIB	LIB
South Perth	LIB	LIB
Southern River	LIB	???
Swan Hills	LIB	ALP
Thornlie	ALP	ALP
Vasse	LIB	LIB
Victoria Park	ALP	ALP
Wanneroo	LIB	???
Warnbro	ALP	ALP
Warren-Blackwood	NAT	NAT
West Swan	ALP	ALP
Willagee	ALP	ALP

Unfortunately the other seats have very mixed histories, except Bicton and Burns Beach which are both new this cycle. (Bicton is formed from old portions of Alfred Cove and Bateman which were historically Liberal, and Fremantle and Willagee which were historically ALP; Burns Beach is formed from Butler--historically ALP--Ocean Reef--LIB--and Joondalup--mixed).

I will think about how best to break the remaining ties, and report back.